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Market Outlook - Short Term
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Dear BSR,
Quote:
Latest BS views say Limited Downside and Sharp Upside Movements! :)
Let us hope better sense prevails among those Big Players!
Unquote:
If the BS views are saying limited downside and sharp movements means That markets will bedoing the opposite ... is that correct..?
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
BullSheetRules
Dear fmcgbites,
Latest BS views say Limited Downside and Sharp Upside Movements! :)
Let us hope better sense prevails among those Big Players!
Firm Support for Nifty around 3450 just like 9800 currently for DOW!
Those FIIs just need to stop that MAD SELLing for one or two days to get those Swift Movements!
Gud luk & happy investing! :) 
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Hi shakti,
The day Nifty lifts 200 points and dow 300 points, I will
take it as a signal of new Bull race. That day, I will start
a new thread and close this one....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
shakal140
Yes, both targets achieved...close the thread
atleast now, pray the markets go up!!
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Dear Hsnmf,
My god, How come you made these losses, is it entirely in F & O ? or in Cash segment also..?...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
hsnmf
My losses since January 2008. I don`t know what to do......
(75,996.59) September
2,001.97 August
31,590.12 July
(102,509.70) June
(37,439.67) May
39,519.15 April
(68,353.29) March
(13,233.85) Feb.
(118,205.02) Jan.
(342,626.87)
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Dear raj_tibs
I have a query on the long contracts. In the present financial turmoil 3 years is quite a long time. What happens if the brokerage firm through which I bought a 3 yr long option does not survive? How are the investor s interest protected in such a hypothetical (but probable) case? Could you throw some light?
Thanks & regards....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : raj_tibs
BSR,
Just formulated my strategy if it falls further..
I have some sold 4300 puts (jun 2010) that are highly illiquid (sold long time back).
I think i will defend them.
So i am planning to pick 5 nifty stocks, and invest about 2-3 times my notional losses over the next few months (and use those shares as margin)...
Also hoping, that within 2 years, will get an opportunity to use the flip cash to 2 lots of futures strat...
What are your views on the stratgy (given that the puts i sold was a bad decision)
regards
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Hi Pradesh,
Many thanks for your message. Unfortunately it is not possible
to give exact time scale of the given targets. Dow fell by full
41% in three months in October 1987. It also fell by 10% in 8
months in 2004 ( From February to October 2004 ) Incidentally
it fell to 9660 on 25 October 2004, the level where Dow is trying
to find support today.
I am working on a formula to find time span of corrections but
I think I will end up with two/three different values, one of
which will occur.
Thanks for your concern and compliments...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
pradesh
HLN,
Though very late, your magic figure of 3600 has become reality. It may not be a moment of rejoicing for thousands. Though I feel sad for them, please accept my appreciation for predicting the level which very few, including me, had believed. This success is truly yours.
I read that you are working on a formula to predict accurately the time factor also. I wish you all the success on that front as well.
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Dear fmcgbites,
Look at Gold market now, probably you will understand the GAME better!
Those TOM and HARRY were not BUYing all stocks when market was around 6000.
Those TOM and HARRY have hoarded those stocks when market was around 2000-3000 level. Then they PUMP the market to higher level knowing fully well about sub prime crisis in Apr 2007. :):)
That is one of the favourite way of making MONEY... PUMP and DUMP!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : fmcgbites
those TOM and HARRY were buying at 6000,they have to sell now at 50% price otherwise they will be forced to sell at 25% of price.
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Yes. timewise correction has to take place. Till that time investors will not return to the stock market. When HNIs start buying, that is the time to enter the market. I am convinced that every rise is an opportunity to exit. ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : fmcgbites
bear market is going to end? so soon? it has not begin yet, this is just some healthy chop & correction. time wise pain and depression has yet to hit stock market.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
European shares in biggest one-day fall ever
Banks, miners lead stock slump across Europe...
In reply to:
The End of Wall Street
Posted by : sambala
Ex-Lehman CEO faces grilling
Richard Fuld, former CEO of bankrupt Lehman, testifies before House panel probing what caused the firm`s collapse
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
I have good qty of GSPL @48 , IFCI @39, Deccan Aviation @61. Do you suggest to average these now or shall I wait for lower levels ? I am willing to hold for long time. kindly suggest ...
In reply to:
Paulson`s Poison & Antidote
Posted by : Kalidas
for tally
Profit is yours if you take it. Book the profit in scrips in which you are in money and buy back same scrips in violent correction.
If RBI eased CRR, it is good thing. They should reduce rates rather than reducing CRR - reducing CRR does not enlarge credit, as most banks in India are anticipating tight money conditions ahead in inter bank market.
You should remain long on Gas stocks like Indraprashtha Gas, GAIL, GSPL, Petronet, and State Owned Refineries, Buy LIC HSG FINANCE when it corrects more in violent crash. When there are no bids for such counters, is the time to buy them at 20% lower circuits
I am not bullish for RIL - as I had mentioned before, this stock is hyped up and its real value should not be above Rs 900. It has long way to go down - but do not listen to me. Others were telling me that it will never go down and see it is collapsing.
Not because of fundamentals, but the shares of RIL must have been pledged by the promoters for their various projects. If the share value go down, they will get margin calls and if they can not meet thousands of crores of margin calls, their shares will be simply sold off in the market. That will cause the market to fall also because of their index weighting
Kalidas, Hong Kong
6-10-2008
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Dear aahoo,
Market will never announce its crash!
I would be pretty sure that Those TOM and HARRY would be those FIIs and their BS agents in most cases! :) :)
Looking at various developments, I also think that bottom has arrived.
That 53% TA corrections is also over from those BS FIIs! They will continue for some time to keep that DEFTY values on similar values!
Since those FIIs are close to their SELLing, it is quite common to expect to hear about those BS rumours about crashes now! :)
Historically, Crash is done using very THIN volume! Just put massive SELL Order in the first five minutes before anyone can think of any BUYing! That makes good headlines everywhere!
Still, be cautious and careful!
If that MAD SELLing continues by FIIs, then we can expect DIRTY game going ahead else better days are ahead!
Looking at DOW, Market PLAYers will be under pressure to think about more steps to save those BIG GREEDY CATs! :)
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : aahoo
Dear BSR
All in the street are talking about market crash. Every TOM and HARRY is selling. To me it seems bottom have arrived. From here it is going to be different story. For a long time Indian market is tracking US market. It is time to concentrate on our own strength. Policy makers are also preparing the ground for stability. It is time to invest rather than looking for elsewhere for cues.
aahoo (the real bull)
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Despite the current market turmoil - rest assured - there are still places where your money has some degree of protection.
With stocks and bonds in turmoil, and the housing market still in the dumps, you`re probably wondering: Are there any safe places to stash your money in this market?
It may not seem like it, given that some of the most conservative vehicles, including money-market mutual funds, have come under pressure in this financial crisis.
For example, The Reserve, the nation`s first money fund firm, announced in mid-September that investors in its Primary Fund would lose value. This marked the first time in more than a decade that a money fund has handed its investors losses.
Savers who tried to eke out a little extra yield than money funds provide experienced their own set of chills recently.
Ultra-short-term bond funds invest in debt with maturities ranging from three months to a year - and are therefore supposed to be just one notch higher than money funds when it comes to risk.
But thanks to, you guessed it, bad bets on mortgage-backed securities, the average ultrashort bond fund lost around 4% over the past year. Some funds, like Schwab YieldPlus Fidelity Ultra-Short Bond have seen double-digit losses in the past 12 months.
But rest assured, there are still extremely safe places to stash your cash. Among them:
Bank money-market accounts and CDs
While it`s hard to tell which banks will eventually survive this financial meltdown, remember that bank CDs and money market accounts (not to be confused with money market mutual funds that are run by fund companies) are FDIC-insured.
That means deposits up to $100,000 per person per institution ($200,000 for joint accounts) will be protected by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
Even better: Because the Federal Reserve has not yet lowered short-term interest rates, many CDs and money market accounts are offering higher yields than you would find in a taxable money fund.
Recently, you could earn as much as 4.5% on a one-year CD, while bank money market accounts were yielding as much as 3.5%. Both are far better than the average 1.9% rate on money market funds.
Stable-value funds
Chances are, your 401(k) offers a stable-value fund. Check it out. Stable value funds invest in high-quality short- to intermediate-term bonds, which are guaranteed by insurers against loss, as well as interest-bearing contracts from insurance companies.
Has your faith in insurance companies been somewhat shaken in this financial storm? Don`t worry. Most stable-value funds invest not only in a diversified portfolio of debt but also in securities covered by several different insurers. And these funds were recently yielding around 4%.
Money Market Funds
Even though one prominent money fund just broke the buck, Uncle Sam has recently stepped to shore up confidence in these popular cash vehicles. On Sept. 19, the Treasury Department put in placea new guarantee for money funds - essentially a type of FDIC insurance - promising that investors will get $1 back for every $1 invested, with no dollar limit.
The so-called Temporary Guarantee Program will last only three months but can be extended into 2009 if needed. Because it only applies to cash that was in money funds as of Sept. 19 - and since not all money funds will choose to sign up - you still have to do to some homework to stay safe.
So call your money funds to see if they intend to purchase this government insurance. Also, stick with financial firms such as Vanguard, Fidelity and American Funds that have the financial resources to preserve the $1 share value in their funds.
And don`t "stretch" for yield. The average yield for taxable money funds is 1.9%. If you see one whose yield is much higher, that could be a sign that it`s taking too many risks.
By Money Magazine staff
...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
I beg to differ with you. Bhave & Subbarao are greta beaurocrats and dynamic too. What you see today seamless trading & demat transaction is Bhave`s creation. RBI`s hawkish stand has actually saved Indian economy. Infra sector lending was discouraged by RBI two years ago. RBI was criticised when $ came down to Rs. 38.50. If RBI had not allowed Re to slide, software exports would have hit and economy would have gone in to recession. By going back by two steps, RBI has actually saved India. Crude will come down to $ 50 and Dollar will collapse, so we should not worry about todays exchange rate. SEBI will interven at an appropriate time in stock market. If India becomes super power tomorrow, you need to thank RBI, SEBI, IRDA, ICAI and of course the policymakers....
In reply to:
Paulson`s Poison & Antidote
Posted by : Sriman35
-Q-
It all depends how imaginative our PM and FM are. Being a good person is not enough. India needs leadership of highly imaginative persons who are relatively young (40+ to 55-) who can stay longer.
-UQ-
Dear Kalidas ji,
It is my understanding, from your previous posts, that the trio (PC/Reddy/Damodaran) lacks imaginative skills.
Now PC is same. (Finance minister)
Damodaran replaced by Bhave (puppet in my opninion i.e almost all SEBI chairmans)
Y.V.Reddy gave way to D.Subbarao(puppet in my opninion i.e almost all RBI governor`s)
Any change in your opinion, now considering the changes...! Is the latest team good enough..?
-Q-
India needs leadership of highly imaginative persons who are relatively young
-UQ-
I believe you are one of the qualified person. But you are 5000 miles away from many many years. You know what I am trying to say..!
Have you ever felt that `I could have done better, in terms of social wealth, If I had stayed back In India`..!?
Regards,
Sri
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
those TOM and HARRY were buying at 6000,they have to sell now at 50% price otherwise they will be forced to sell at 25% of price....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : aahoo
Dear BSR
All in the street are talking about market crash. Every TOM and HARRY is selling. To me it seems bottom have arrived. From here it is going to be different story. For a long time Indian market is tracking US market. It is time to concentrate on our own strength. Policy makers are also preparing the ground for stability. It is time to invest rather than looking for elsewhere for cues.
aahoo (the real bull)
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Hi sanjay,
Everything is possible. But nothing happens without
significant reason behind it....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : sanjay38000
if we can go from 700 to 6300..why we can not return..to 1800. everything is possible.
Tracked by: 108 Boarders
Oh okie, googol.
Thanks!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : googol
0604
Dear BSR,
While many were predicting dooms day for the last one year just citing chart as the reason,only Kalidas explained the hole called subprime that American cos are in,by last Dec so precisely and said that Indian mkts would tank at the latest by III week of Jan and the fall would be more than 70% (from 6000 levels)and advised all to sell all their holdings and keep as cash.Pl.go thro` the archives to see some of his gems.He was the first one to predict the dooms day of ICICI bank when it was at 900 saying that it would fall to 200-.
He even now maintains that more pains are in the offing
Regards,
Boarder Circle