Market Outlook - Short Term

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : hindlevernet

Dear vam,

I am keeping very close eye on dow. It is crashing down to
the range seen 25 October 2004 ( Monday ) when it touched
9660 on that day. So 9738, the lowest of today so far seems
to be excellent support for Dow. If it maintains the level
of 9600 today and for next few days, then we may hope for
recovery from this point onward.

At what Nifty level will you invest fresh money?

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear pkjattking,

It looks like that DOW has given ENOUGH jitters to different market PLAYers to do something! :)

Those Media headlines are as of now on the expected lines! :) :)

Tomorrow, if one see Nifty around 3450-3500 level, then perform some TA to build a part of LT investoments! Perform that TA on weekly charts! :)

Daily charts are useful for Traders, weekly charts are useful for LT investors! :)

Let us hope better SENSE prevails among those BIG Players! :)

Let us hope for the best! :)

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : pkjattking

Boos shall I phone Houston and tell them the train has stopped.... n plz prepare for a rocket....jut kidin

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : pkjattking

Boos shall I phone Houston and tell them the train has stopped.... n plz prepare for a rocket....jut kidin

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vam_aru

Dear BSR,

Seems like DOW had taken a minor support at 3775 , and now quickly moved to 9890, let`s see where it cosing today, today`s closing is important for us...

At what Nifty level will you invest fresh money?

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger

At what Nifty level will you invest fresh money?

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger

Paulson`s Poison & Antidote

Posted by : Kalidas

for slowhand22

Is liquidity in Indian market affected. it should not. Interest rates are very high now, so RBI has lot of leeway to reduce the interest rates.

Banking collapse has started already, this is what I was forecasting from 12 months onwards. US is heading towards Civil War, and I will not be surprised if national emergency is declared and election postponed.


Solution is already there, but the US Administration did not listen to me or respond to my letter. As I have stated before, I am the only person in the world who has solution to US problem. I am not boasting or not telling you out of ego. Whatever actions taken by Paulson and Bernanke are terribly wrong. They are printing their way out of the problem.

If they had listened to me earlier, they would have prevented all these collapses, in fact there could have been massive rally. I will release the letter at appropriate time.

Now that the situation has come out of hand, the solution will be more curative rather than preventive. it will hurt almost all, regardless of your country.

India will emerge strongest in the world. I am only worried about Rupee policy of the RBI and Government. They know that it has not worked for over 60 years, and they are still following the beaten path.

In India, most banks are nationalized, so there should not be any problem in Inter-bank lending. Nothing may happen to India, unless the Indian officials become super charged and panicky in which case they will hurt the nation. This is more likely to happen, if past is the indication.

Inflation is no longer a problem now - there is no money in the market. The present problem is liquidity. Indian government has most powerful tools in its armoury. The rates are inordinately high at about 10% for deposits. Even if the rates are progressively reduced by 5% in small steps of 0.5% for next 16 months, (0.5% per 2 months)

Further, next step will be to lower the taxation rate. These are all bullish scenario being set up by the present crisis. To be quite honest, I am super bullish at Indian prospect, but that time has to wait. You have to be stock specific.

A few months ago, I had asked for investing into HPCL (came down to 180), BPCL (came down to 230) when the Index was near 15000 or about. Today, the market is down to below 11000 or by about 35%, and the same stocks are up by 35% to 50% in less than 4 months.

At that time, there were many who were comparing Reliance (RPL) as best buy which was at about 172 to 192. Now it is at Rs 132, down 25%.

This is the difference between my recommendations and others blind loyalty to Ambanis, Tata, Birla, etc. I never attach myself to any stock, and allow my self to be conducted by the sheer logic and dispassionate analysis of any scrip or market.

Perhaps I am the only one today, who is superbullish about the Indian market, and you will see that in coming days.

Kalidas, Hong Kong
6-10-2008

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : raj_tibs

Of course, the puts that is sold were my entry into the markets last year (august)... As of now, notional loss is less than ledger bal. But margin short.. so i am thinking in 2 years, shares in margin account should fetch some decent return, as opposed to cash in margin account.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : pkjattking

I think you missed that... me and Mr bsrules were saying the day bailout passed and Dow dived 2 mins after.... that this manufactured fall will probably take us to 9800 on Dow which will mentally confuse most traders...... so Dow is now at that level so lets c where we go from here...... I now have losses In India..portfolio is down 30%.. but still doing better in Us...... keep faith.

SENSEX to rally by 2400 pts in 7 days

Posted by : Kalidas

for ysb

An excellent and intelligent question. Honestly, I never like a company or business leader who day in and out buys some or the other different companies or floats new ones not related to their core business. (This applies to Reliance group also).

Mittal invested in related business, but he never had that kind of money as projected. Most of the wealth of the tycoons are only on paper, their wealth goes up because their share prices go up in bull market. We therefore call them billionaire. They never disclose their personal liabilities.

The FORBES list of top 100 is nothing but a bogus list. They value the existing holding of the controlling shareholders by multiplying his stake x current stock price. How about his personal liabilities, that are never disclosed?

Whenever they buy new companies or float new ventures, they fund it not from their liquid cash, but borrow from their brokers or banks by pledging the shares of existing companies. The borrow in their personal capacity. When the situation like this comes, and their bankers issue Margin calls. If they can not meet (and they would not) the margin calls, the financing banks or broker sells out those shares in market or in private deal.

The real stature of Mittal will come out during this testing time. The persons like Mittal love debt more than anything else. His original venture Ispat, the main borrowing vehicle, is still neck deep in debt. But he is not longer liable, having migrated to London. (or ran away?)

When the debt crisis is in full swing, and metal prices are plummeting, his share values pledged as collaterals will also come down. He should get margin call from his bankers or brokers. If he can not meet them, his pledged securities will be sold off and all the mountains of debt will come to the light.

If he passed this test during these times, then he would be deemed to have real wealth. Until such time, watch his empire closely.

Tell me, which banker in India is going to lend Rs 4000 to 8000 crores to Anil Ambani`s Reliance Power, when they have no other assets and the plant is just on paper or under part execution? Obviously, he would have pledged the shares of his flagship companies like Reliance Communication, Reliance Capital etc. which he is not required to disclose under any act because these are his personal holdings.

Ratan Tata was a disciplined businessman in the past. But he had personal ego - Yeh kalka Chhokra Lakshmi Mittal, mere se hajaro miles aage nikal gaya. Main bhi kuchh bataa doon. (This yesterday`s boy has advanced several miles ahead of me. Let me also show the world that I am not anything less than him) So he bought Corus.

When I wrote against Ratan Tata on this subject, somewhere in December or January, everyone on this board pounced on me, how a person from cozy office in Hong Kong could write on Ratan Tata who is visionary and best businessman of India. I questioned his take over only one ground - he bought when the GBP was at highest, Steel prices were at highest, and stock prices at highest. how could he expect to make money. And where was he, when he could have bought Steel Authority of India which was trading at Rs 5 at the height of crisis a few years ago? The stock SAIL then went up to over Rs 160 or so. If he was so bullish on India, why did he become so foolish to go all the way to London to buy Corus that was 5 times the size of TISCO for which he did not have expertise or experience?

Refer my old write up on Ratan Tata if you can retrieve that from the Archive. It had full article on Ratan Tata.

Kalidas, Hong Kong
6-10-2008

SENSEX to rally by 2400 pts in 7 days

Posted by : wbuffett001

Dear Kalidas,
The famous website middle-east-onlinedotcom also gives the figure of USD 875 billion for Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.This figure of USD 875 billion for Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is quoted in many places. I mentioned only sovereign wealth funds ( not forex reserves) figures as quoted by Peter Heyward (for all the countries I mentioned). Anyway thanks for a detailed reply as you only can give.Have a nice day.
regards
wbuffett001

SENSEX to rally by 2400 pts in 7 days

Posted by : jems000

A most popular Thread is going on MMB is "Will Nifty hit 3600 & sensex 12000?" which was created after 3000 points crash on Sensex 22 & 23 January` 2008 and also this thread is Quation not Answer. But there was one post posted by KALIDAS SIR on 03 January 2008 that Sensex would come to 12000 which came true today and his ability to predict major sensex crash before 26 january still came true.
HATS OF YOU SIR!!!!
here is post!

Posted by: Kalidas on (03-Jan-08 01:28 ) Rating
Price : BSE: Rs 93.65 ( -2.45 % ), NSE: Rs. 93.85 ( -2.29 % )
for Guest - King Porus, (Ref: 08-005)

There is nothing to be confusing about. I have said very clearly that I do fear that massive equity crash is coming soon. This is the reason I said that one should raise cash to 75% by selling progressively on or before 26/1.

The reason was the acute credit crisis for which I gave ample examples. Many banks and investment banks will be reporting their December quarterly numbers from 3rd week of January that will be devastating. Severe losses may be reported. I feared that one major US bank and a leading Investment Bank, that have seen Government of Abu Dhabi and Singapore investing over USD 17 Billions collectively, may report even larger losses, and possibly they could close the doors.

You can understand what happens if some major bank fails. In today`s world, almost all banks are inter-dependent. Failure of major bank can have cascading effect. This is why I said that major Indian banks operating abroad like SBI, BOI, IOB, ICICI may find their credit lines suddenly withdrawn.

When I said raise the cash up to 75% and keep only 25% in the equity - the message is very clear. SELL most of the high flyers and stay with valuable equity (at reduced holding level ) which have not yet seen their value reflected. Everything will fall - be it your favorite or mine. Whichever stock has gone up by 30% to 300% are likely to suffer severe downfall.

ADD to it the recent permission (from January 1) by RBI and SEBI, these two idiots, to permit short selling at such most vulnerable time. There will be computerized selling where at the touch of the button, massive selling wave will cause the stock prices to drop severely, On one hand they permit short selling and on the other they introduce `circuit breakers` at 5%,10% and 20% at their whims and fancies. Such measure should be introduced when the markets are in very stable mod, not at the time when the market takes the swoon by 200 points to 1000 points in a day.

Earlier, money used to flow from bonds to equity and vice versa. If bonds dropped, the money traveled to equity; and if equity dropped, the money will return to bonds or banks.

But today, there is only one way street. The bond market is at its worst (not in India) and almost scary where no one trust the other lender or borrower. If bonds dropped, the equities rose because of money flew from bonds to equity; but when the equities drop, where the money will go?

They do not get into bonds because of sub prime mess. People do not want to place the money into banks because banks are falling into pieces - look at Citicorp, Bank of America, HSBC, UBS, Northern rock in England etc - all are in serious trouble. This is why GOLD is rising - today up 2.3% to US$ 860 - but gold can not absorb trillions of dollars/euros/pounds/rupees/yeans or yens.

Most of liquidity you are seeing today are all paper money created out of thin air(by practice of deficit financing, trade deficits, budget deficits and Derivatives), and they will vanish into thin air with even higher speed.

Look at water. The rain brings down the water, but the heat reverts into vapor and throws back into thin air. This is why the money will disappear into thin air from where it came in at first place. This is going to happen for the first time in last 70 years. This is why the kind of crash that may come will be horrific.




Read further Part-II

Kalidas, Hong Kong
3-Jan-08

Paulson`s Poison & Antidote

Posted by : tally

Dear Kalidas, your write up makes eminent sense. I have advised my daughter in USA to divert some of her savings to Indian banks. I am a long term investor and my holdings consist of RIL, Indraprastha gas, HUL, ITC, SAIL, Syndicate bank, GAIL, RPL and small holding of high risk cat & dog shares. Any comments? I remain in profit in above stocks notwithstanding my earlier exit would have ensured better profit.Normally I book profits at regular intervals. I have some little cash for stock market investment but contemplate diverting these funds to buy gold/silver. which one is better? RBI HAS REDUCED CRR, which for sure is good news. What specific measures should Govt / RBI must undertake to ensure liquidity commensurate with inflation control and reasonable growth?