Market Outlook - Short Term

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Morning sp.palo,

It may take time for that illusive 9800 figure! However, DOW is on its way to 9000+ as first TARGET (closing basis) in ST!

Once DOW cross 9000+, we may need to take stock of new situations if any from fundamental / sentimental point of view as there are some BS rumors are there that BIG PLAYers plan to do some BUYing during holiday season (Thanksgiving holidays) when General American public will be a bit far off from world of stock market!

Let us hope BIG PLAYers continue to PLAY the GAME sensibly!

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

Will Nifty fall below 2500 by end of the November series?

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : sp.palo

Dear BSR,
Good Morning.
The problem with TA is that it discounts overnight events which highly impacts the morning trades. This is where the sentiment analysis comes into play.
All indicators of DOW are bearish and its likely to continue its downtrend for a few days and it will take time to break the 9800 mark.

regards
shakti

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : lovemeall26

Hello anju,
Yes the problem these days is that the small traders are not getting a level playing field to make money in these markets on a day to day basis as the big players are violently taking the nifty where ever they want the next day. It indeed is a tricky question to answer if we have finally made the bottom this time. Only time can tell that, however, since there are huge rallies and falls these days, I repeat, one should go with the trend and try not to keep overnight longs or shorts as one does not know when one could get trapped in the wrong direction. We still are in the midst of a full fledged bear market and bull markets DO NOT start this way. As regards the short term target, we can go anywhere , it depends on the extent of short covering and long positions being taken by the bulls and the FII`s. If they do not use this pullback to offload more stocks, then its ok for some more upmove, however, if they resort to same old tactics of getting out in rallies, then we ofcourse do back down under once again. Hence, play this game for a day or two max and get out for a concrete trend to set in.
take care
lovemeall26

Will Nifty fall below 2500 by end of the November series?

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

honestytrack, Gud to see so many discussions on your parts!

Here are some BS points: TA is just a TOY!

Just like fundamentals BS talks related to business cycles, management, are part of the TOYs to PLAY the GAME better. TA as a TOY help to identify what those different PLAYers think about! Are those so called Fundamental PLAYers are STRONG PLAYers or WEAKER PLAYers? :)

TA works best in liquid stocks preferably in FnO! :)

As per current TA, expect Nifty to go to minimum 3400+ to 4000+ level with DOWNSIDE Ltd to 2500 level (margin of safety) in ST/MT! Let us see how things shape up here within 2 months! :)

Now question remains: whether TA works on all kind of stocks.. the plain answer is NO!

Avoid doing TA on ILLIQUID stocks... stocks that you mentioned in the former list were not even part of FnO! For those kind of stocks, right connections or insider news at times to operators are needed! :)

For FnO, there are hell lot of PLAYers apart from one operator making TA works fine as per BS expectations! :)

TA is just a toy to check inflow or outflow of MONEY by those BIG PLAYers! :)

Anyway, there are millions of ways to make MONEY in Dalal Street! Your way may be one of them! :) :)

Gud luk & happy investing!

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : lovemeall26

Hello guest,
There are so many books on TA available in book stores. I personally have only read - Come into my trading room by Alexander Elder. It is a good book and will help you a lot I think. take care
lovemeall26

Credit Card Debt….Next Financial Crisis? -Be and Make

Posted by : Be and Make

The defaults that started with the sub-prime loans crisis in the US leading to a global $7.7-trillion loss in stock market value since October, are now showing signs of moving into the US credit card industry that will hit the balace sheets of the card issuing banks.

Reports indicate that a substantial portion of of the 158 million US card holders using 1.5 billion cards have started defaulting and banks had to write of approx $21 billion in bad credit loans in the first six months of this year and expect a further loss of $55 billion in the next 12 months.

For years, consumers in the US have become ever more dependent on credit cards with American Express, the largest credit card issuer in the US coined the famous by line ``Never leave home without it.`` Now an average American does not leave home without at least 10 credit cards and a whole host of other supermarket credit cards in his wallet.

Five big financial companies, Discover Financial Services, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Capital One Financial issue around 80 per cent of all US credit cards.

How deep is the problem?
According to Federal Reserve figures, in the US alone more than $850 billion in unpaid credit card balances is at stake and fast approaching $1 trillion, roughly the same amount as in the subprime market.

CNN reported that worldwide, consumers have racked up more than $2.2 trillion in purchases and cash advances on major credit cards in the last year.

The unpaid debt portion of this with US consumers is $68 billion, thus increasing credit card debt by 7.8 per cent, the largest increase in seven years.

Even as they spent, consumers had been going into default at a stunning rate with delinquent credit card accounts this year hitting a six-year high of 4.9 per cent and the charge-offs -when banks give up on collecting debt, have reached a all time high of 5.5 per cent in the second quarter, as per the latest data available with the US Federal Reserve.

Since last year, major banks were setting aside billions as reserves for credit card loan loss and anticipating an increase of 20 per cent in non payments over the next two to four quarters.

Capital One, one of the biggest credit card banks, was forced to write off $1.9 billion in bad debt in the last quarter of 2007 and serious delinquencies among some of the biggest lenders rose by 50 per cent or more in the value of accounts that were at least 90 days delinquent.

Just like the mortgage debt which created a financial havoc worldwide, credit card debt is pooled and then resold to investment houses, other banks and institutional investors.

US credit card debt grew by 435 per cent from 2002 to year-end 2007, from $211 billion to approx $915 billion.

About 45 per cent of this $915 billion in credit card debt has been packaged into these pools, which not only creates a risk to a few banks but many other institutions as well who will be forced out of business due to credit card debt write offs.

The national savings rate was 10 to 11 per cent in the l980s and since 2005, Americans have saved less than 1 per cent of their disposable incomes with a negative saving rate as of March this year, making an average America broke, and credit cards played a major role in getting them there.

Currently, the losses on credit card debt which stands at 5.5 per cent could rise to 7.9 per cent and the industry will stand to lose $55 billion this year, as the financial crisis has seen companies laying off thousand of workers all over the US. People will add up to the credit card debt as the unemployment rate has increased by about 2 million people in the last 12 months.

The US Department of Labour reported that the US shed 1,59,000 jobs in September and the list of companies which have announced a cut in jobs read like a Who`s Who of corporate America: Merck, Yahoo, General Electric, Xerox, Pratt & Whitney, Goldman Sachs, Whirlpool, Bank of America, Pepsi, Hewlett Packard, Alcoa, Coca-Cola, the three big Detroit auto manufacturers, leading newspapers, banks and financial institutions and nearly all the airlines.

To solve the ever increasing credit card defaults, banks and consumer groups are lobbying US regulators to forgive 40 per cent of the debt of most financially stressed consumers who are close to bankruptcy and they could pay off their remaining card debt, interest free in five years.

Banks could begin with this test scheme on 50,000 consumers, in hopes of expanding it to tens of thousands of others.

---
03 November 2008
---
with thanks
be and make

Nifty

Posted by : mehtan

The fact that top traded Nifty Calls are shedding open interest while no corresponding shift is being seen in top traded Nifty Puts, seems to indicate that while the rise may be capped, the professionals do not seem to be ready to take a strong call on the support at lower end for Nifty. Though everyone thinks a rally may be imminent, the charts, as on today, does not seem to suggest that happening prior to test of the October low close.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

honestytrack, Gud to see so many discussions on your parts!

Here are some BS points: TA is just a TOY!

Just like fundamentals BS talks related to business cycles, management, are part of the TOYs to PLAY the GAME better. TA as a TOY help to identify what those different PLAYers think about! Are those so called Fundamental PLAYers are STRONG PLAYers or WEAKER PLAYers? :)

TA works best in liquid stocks preferably in FnO! :)

As per current TA, expect Nifty to go to minimum 3400+ to 4000+ level with DOWNSIDE Ltd to 2500 level (margin of safety) in ST/MT! Let us see how things shape up here within 2 months! :)

Now question remains: whether TA works on all kind of stocks.. the plain answer is NO!

Avoid doing TA on ILLIQUID stocks... stocks that you mentioned in the former list were not even part of FnO! For those kind of stocks, right connections or insider news at times to operators are needed! :)

For FnO, there are hell lot of PLAYers apart from one operator making TA works fine as per BS expectations! :)

TA is just a toy to check inflow or outflow of MONEY by those BIG PLAYers! :)

Anyway, there are millions of ways to make MONEY in Dalal Street! Your way may be one of them! :) :)

Gud luk & happy investing!

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600

Posted by : hindlevernet

Hi Rajesh,

Many thanks for your loving greetings. Absolutely thrilled.

Best of luck

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : vam_aru

Dear Dustocks,

Correct, I was just wondering about the 107 % margin that they put on one particular stock....!!!