Online
| Post a Message | Explore Forums | Browse Stock Messages | Hot Discussions | Top rated Messages | Top Boarders | |
|
|
|
Business Talk
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Read a good book
History never repeats itself exactly, but you owe it to yourself to be acquainted with the bear markets of yesteryear. At least if history does then repeat itself you can't say that you weren't warned. I'd recommend J. K. Galbraith's The Great Crash, a brief but insightful analysis of 1929 and all that went before and after.
Avoid collateral damage
In 1987 the real economy emerged from the crash virtually unscathed. Next time around the world may not be so lucky. It will take time for share price damage to have its full effect elsewhere. Use this opportunity to pull out of that house move, sell your granny's Gauguin and ask your boss for an extended contract.
Dust off the abacus
Down and dirty financial analysis has increasingly gone out of vogue. As share prices fall, so value emerges. But you'll only spot it if you are looking for it. And this means poring over the numbers, not chasing dreams. You can afford to keep it simple. Thoroughness will pay greater dividends than sloppy sophistication....
In reply to:
10 rules for investing in a bear market
Posted by :
Infy_fan_always
Holding your nerve in a bear market requires both sound knowledge and a cool head. If you can do so, you can both reduce losses and find profitable gems gathering dust. After all, it\'s worth remembering that that most revered of all investment prophets Warren Buffet eyes bear markets with a special gleam in his eye - for it\'s at such times that buying opportunities are available with handsome value in-built into their prices. Here are ten rules from a master trader to steer by in difficult times...
Flick the switch
You\'ll never make rational investment decisions if you\'re mesmerised by the gyrating prices on your screen. Steel yourself not to look at prices, read market reports or talk to stockbrokers during trading hours. Markets are not going to turn for the better just because you will them to. And, as prices have fallen so far, it matters little if you miss the first inch of their eventual recovery.
Pound the streets
You don\'t just need a sense of perspective; you need the widest possible perspective. The best investment opportunities are those you discover by observation of the workings of the economy in the aftermath of the stock market collapse. If you can bear it, take the taxi driver litmus test.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Holding your nerve in a bear market requires both sound knowledge and a cool head. If you can do so, you can both reduce losses and find profitable gems gathering dust. After all, it\'s worth remembering that that most revered of all investment prophets Warren Buffet eyes bear markets with a special gleam in his eye - for it\'s at such times that buying opportunities are available with handsome value in-built into their prices. Here are ten rules from a master trader to steer by in difficult times...
Flick the switch
You\'ll never make rational investment decisions if you\'re mesmerised by the gyrating prices on your screen. Steel yourself not to look at prices, read market reports or talk to stockbrokers during trading hours. Markets are not going to turn for the better just because you will them to. And, as prices have fallen so far, it matters little if you miss the first inch of their eventual recovery.
Pound the streets
You don\'t just need a sense of perspective; you need the widest possible perspective. The best investment opportunities are those you discover by observation of the workings of the economy in the aftermath of the stock market collapse. If you can bear it, take the taxi driver litmus test.
...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Positive cash flow in various market environments is commonly known as dollar-cost averaging. When markets are down, cheaper securities are purchased, leading to enhanced future returns (when markets are up, of course, the opposite effect occurs, but no one seems to care). During periods of negative cash flow, the experience is reversed....
In reply to:
Bear Market Strategy: Raising Cash Can Be
Posted by : Infy_fan_always
Because periods of negative growth in economic activity are almost always associated with bear markets, listening to economic releases is a very popular exercise among professional investment managers and amateurs alike.
The problem is that the market is a leading indicator. Market peaks lead peaks in economic activity by nearly half a year on average. Often by the time concrete evidence of a recession is apparent, most of the damage to the market already has been done. Having an economist as an investment advisor is a little like having a pathologist as a personal physician. They both know a lot, but it’s at least one day too late.
What about economic forecasts? As it turns out, the best forecast of the future usually is the present. Most economists, indeed, extrapolate current trends to try to determine what will happen next. And the truth is, that exercise generally works well, except at those times it is needed the most—at inflection points.
Pundits say that to time the market successfully, one must "be right twice." Getting out of a bear market does no good unless one can get back in before the market passes one by on the way back up. And timing reentry is no easy task. Markets reach their bottoms when the majority of investors become convinced that the only glimmer at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train. I can recall that at the end of the 1973–74 bear market (when the S&P lost nearly 50 percent from its peak), many professional investors were expecting another 50 percent decline. And, like market peaks, market troughs lead the economy by nearly half a year, and a very significant portion of a bull market’s return often takes place in the first few months of its emergence.
Provided that one has a well-diversified portfolio, with an asset mix that was developed with the understanding that negative markets would occur from time to time, the best course of action usually is to take no action at all, except to rebalance. Furthermore, while at the time raising cash in a bear market may feel like the safest thing to do—it can be very dangerous. The problem lies in the fact that investment returns are a function of cash flow as well as of securities price movement.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Because periods of negative growth in economic activity are almost always associated with bear markets, listening to economic releases is a very popular exercise among professional investment managers and amateurs alike.
The problem is that the market is a leading indicator. Market peaks lead peaks in economic activity by nearly half a year on average. Often by the time concrete evidence of a recession is apparent, most of the damage to the market already has been done. Having an economist as an investment advisor is a little like having a pathologist as a personal physician. They both know a lot, but it’s at least one day too late.
What about economic forecasts? As it turns out, the best forecast of the future usually is the present. Most economists, indeed, extrapolate current trends to try to determine what will happen next. And the truth is, that exercise generally works well, except at those times it is needed the most—at inflection points.
Pundits say that to time the market successfully, one must "be right twice." Getting out of a bear market does no good unless one can get back in before the market passes one by on the way back up. And timing reentry is no easy task. Markets reach their bottoms when the majority of investors become convinced that the only glimmer at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train. I can recall that at the end of the 1973–74 bear market (when the S&P lost nearly 50 percent from its peak), many professional investors were expecting another 50 percent decline. And, like market peaks, market troughs lead the economy by nearly half a year, and a very significant portion of a bull market’s return often takes place in the first few months of its emergence.
Provided that one has a well-diversified portfolio, with an asset mix that was developed with the understanding that negative markets would occur from time to time, the best course of action usually is to take no action at all, except to rebalance. Furthermore, while at the time raising cash in a bear market may feel like the safest thing to do—it can be very dangerous. The problem lies in the fact that investment returns are a function of cash flow as well as of securities price movement....
In reply to:
Bear Market Strategy: Raising Cash Can Be
Posted by : Infy_fan_always
The problem is that each of these elements contains so much inherent uncertainty that their application involves a better-than-even chance of causing more harm than good.
Selling stocks to raise cash works fine—if it is done before the market turns down. Usually, however, even severe bear markets (those associated with deep recessions) are not apparent before a great deal of the damage already has been done. Conversely, to make matters worse, even sharp dips can signify nothing more than short-term corrections. Remember that in October 1987, the market lost more than 20 percent of its value in a single day. The economy, meanwhile, continued to grow—and the market followed shortly thereafter.
Bear market patterns are equally problematic. Reviewing historical experience and determining ranges and averages with respect to lengths and magnitudes of these declines is easy enough, of course. The lack of central tendency, however, makes it quite unlikely that any particular experience will coincide with the averages, and in fact, there is no particular reason to believe that historic ranges will provide best- and worst-case boundaries for the future.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
The problem is that each of these elements contains so much inherent uncertainty that their application involves a better-than-even chance of causing more harm than good.
Selling stocks to raise cash works fine—if it is done before the market turns down. Usually, however, even severe bear markets (those associated with deep recessions) are not apparent before a great deal of the damage already has been done. Conversely, to make matters worse, even sharp dips can signify nothing more than short-term corrections. Remember that in October 1987, the market lost more than 20 percent of its value in a single day. The economy, meanwhile, continued to grow—and the market followed shortly thereafter.
Bear market patterns are equally problematic. Reviewing historical experience and determining ranges and averages with respect to lengths and magnitudes of these declines is easy enough, of course. The lack of central tendency, however, makes it quite unlikely that any particular experience will coincide with the averages, and in fact, there is no particular reason to believe that historic ranges will provide best- and worst-case boundaries for the future....
In reply to:
Bear Market Strategy: Raising Cash Can Be
Posted by : Infy_fan_always
A cynic once noted that the stock market seems to do whatever is necessary to prove the majority of investors wrong. This observation, I believe, will be essentially accurate as long as economic forces that are cyclical in nature continue to drive the markets.
And this notion is not as perverse as it might seem. When times are good, the market discounts good times—it becomes expensive. When times turn difficult, the market gets cheap. And, because booms lead to busts (and vice versa), the market itself is not very good at telling investors when to jump in with both feet and when to keep well away from it.
So, what strategy makes the most sense during bear markets? Nearly any investor—who is lucid—knows from the start that the stock market does not go up in a straight line forever. Negative markets can be expected to take place periodically, and they can involve significant losses. However, dealing with a future eventuality is one thing, and actually watching retirement assets appear to evaporate into thin air is quite another. And, for those of us who consider ourselves to be in charge of our own destinies, a powerful urge arises to do something—maybe anything.
Various approaches often come to light either intuitively or as a result of the suggestions of others. These approaches often incorporate some combination of the following elements:
• Sell stocks to raise cash immediately.
• Try to determine some sense of what pattern the bear market might take, through historic experience with such markets and the economic circumstances that led to them.
• Keep on top of the numbers that are regularly reported with regard to economic activity.
• Get back in when things seem better, with the understanding that a bell doesn’t ring at market bottoms.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
A cynic once noted that the stock market seems to do whatever is necessary to prove the majority of investors wrong. This observation, I believe, will be essentially accurate as long as economic forces that are cyclical in nature continue to drive the markets.
And this notion is not as perverse as it might seem. When times are good, the market discounts good times—it becomes expensive. When times turn difficult, the market gets cheap. And, because booms lead to busts (and vice versa), the market itself is not very good at telling investors when to jump in with both feet and when to keep well away from it.
So, what strategy makes the most sense during bear markets? Nearly any investor—who is lucid—knows from the start that the stock market does not go up in a straight line forever. Negative markets can be expected to take place periodically, and they can involve significant losses. However, dealing with a future eventuality is one thing, and actually watching retirement assets appear to evaporate into thin air is quite another. And, for those of us who consider ourselves to be in charge of our own destinies, a powerful urge arises to do something—maybe anything.
Various approaches often come to light either intuitively or as a result of the suggestions of others. These approaches often incorporate some combination of the following elements:
• Sell stocks to raise cash immediately.
• Try to determine some sense of what pattern the bear market might take, through historic experience with such markets and the economic circumstances that led to them.
• Keep on top of the numbers that are regularly reported with regard to economic activity.
• Get back in when things seem better, with the understanding that a bell doesn’t ring at market bottoms....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Pradeep Puri, MD, Noida Toll Bridge, said the company’s prospects are built on the very strong traffic growth rather than extraneous factors like inflation etc. He expects traffic to grow 20% YoY, which is what they have been doing consistently for the past many quarters and also last year....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
I think the road from mayur vihar towards delhi via DND is still in bad form. its being repaired from the past 3-4weeks . Can mgmt tell wat happening and why? In the morning their is huge jam piling up at DND from delhi side. Call centre drivers simply push their vehicle inside from wrong lanes. will this be checked?...
In reply to:
Noida Toll Bridge sees traffic growing at 20% YoY
Posted by :
MMB Messenger
Pradeep Puri, MD, Noida Toll Bridge, said the company’s prospects are built on the very strong traffic growth rather than extraneous factors like inflation etc. He expects traffic to grow 20% YoY, which is what they have been doing consistently for the past many quarters and also last year.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Pramod Jain, a Delhi-based investor, has acquired 5.51% stake in Gujarat Heavy Chemicals Limited (GHCL). Jain said that he upped the stake in the company over a period of six months and that they had been purchased from the open market. He further added that any other party acting in consort with him holds no other stake....
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
How is euro dollar related to crude and then indian equity market...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Gaurav Dalmia, Chairman of Landmark Holdings said that Landmark Property has three assets under construction, most of these are housing related projects are looking at signing up a couple of more projects. He added that the company’s revenue as on March 31, 08 was at 5.6 crore and he sees it growing three times in the coming year.
...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Hi,
Read this Intersting Article
\"How to Know What Stocks to Buy, at Any Moment
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
I was such a fool.
All my friends were getting rich literally overnight... but I didn\'t join them.
It was 10 years ago. Just about every brilliant guy I knew left his \"legitimate\" job for a mountain of stock options at a dot-com startup in California.
Meanwhile, I was doing the polar opposite. I was living in Baltimore, writing an investment newsletter. \"How quaint,\" I\'d hear from these new zillionaires at reunions and Christmas parties. I was living my dream... but it didn\'t include a million-dollars worth of stock options and a perpetual tan.
They didn\'t know the \"top\" of the speculative tech bubble was in... that their jobs and stock options could disappear overnight. But looking back, there were two hallmark signs:
1) Returns in the preceding few years were ridiculously good.
2) And everyone wanted in, assuming you couldn\'t NOT get rich.
As an investor, business owner, or employee, please remember: When you see these two things, chances are you\'re darn close to a top.
For the specifics of the tech mania... According to the Dow Jones sector indexes, Technology was the best-performing sector in 1996, 1998, and 1999. It was up 36%, 70%, and 84%, respectively. (Many other indexes more specific to dot-coms did even better.) After the 84% return in 1999, everyone wanted in.
You know how it ended. My friends\' stock options wound up worthless. The laws of nature hadn\'t been repealed. Over the next three years, tech stocks got clobbered. Take a look at the returns of the Technology sector:
2000
-37%
2001
-28%
2002
-39%
Then came real estate in the mid-2000s...
I was a fool once again. This time, I was living on the east coast of Florida. Everyone around me was getting rich in real estate (on borrowed money). I was foolishly writing an investment letter, with no debt. \"How quaint,\" I heard again in a condescending tone at cocktail parties.
The Dow Jones Real Estate index soared in the mid-2000s:
2003
-37%
2004
31%
2005
10%
2006
36%
By mid-2005, the top was obviously near... Because again, 1) Returns in the preceding few years were ridiculously good, and 2) Everyone assumed you couldn\'t NOT get rich!
Just like tech, real estate busted.
Now it's late 2008. What's at risk? What's been hot in the preceding few years? Consider the Dow Jones Oil & Gas stock index:
2004
32%
2005
34%
2006
23%
2007
35%
Oil & Gas stocks performed better than real estate stocks did in their big run... They actually performed just as well as tech did a decade ago. Does this mean the top is in? It sure seems like it should be near. Returns have been ridiculously good... and people think you can't NOT get rich in oil now.
Let's take a look at what's happened... Wow! The Dow Jones Oil & Gas index is down 18% since June 30 of this year – that's like six weeks!
OK, so we know what NOT to buy... We DON'T want to buy things that have performed well over the last few years, when investors are getting giddy over the prospects for the future. This almost always means the assets are selling for ridiculously high prices, like tech stocks in 1999 and real estate in 2005.
So what should we buy? You guessed it... We want to buy exactly the opposite of these two things. We want to buy cheap, hated assets that everyone has ignored for years. This is where the great values are.
Consider biotech stocks... returns this entire decade have been unimpressive, really. The returns in the last two years on the Dow Jones Biotech stock index have been particularly dead:
2006
-4%
2007
3%
We have just the opposite of oil and gas... we have, 1) Returns in the preceding few years have been particularly dead, and 2) Nobody is clamoring to get in.
Let's take a look at what's happened this year... Everyone wants oil stocks, and they're getting crushed. Nobody's talking biotech... and they're up over 20% so far!
To get rich in stocks, you can't do what everyone else is doing. Most folks pick their stocks and mutual funds by performance. They look for the best performers over the last few years and put their money there. That's a bad idea!
Stocks aren't like baseball players... You can't pick them based on their batting average over the last three years.
Instead of looking at what's done well over the last three-to-five years, you're better off looking at what's dramatically underperformed instead. When you're talking about the major sectors, they all come back around.
Biotech's Next Big Bull Market Starts Now
As a starting point to put this theory into practice... oil & gas stocks have been the big performers over the last few years, while tech stocks and biotech stocks have been dead money.
If this idea is right (and I believe it is), selling oil and gas stocks to buy tech stocks and biotech stocks is the right trade to make.
Good investing,
Steve...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Sir,
I want to bring into your notice the indirect price increase by SAIL and RINL. Kindly note that executives of these organisations are asking to give in writing the requirement at enhanced price by 20% of their earlier price. They just want to show that price is not increased by them but consumer is asking material at a high rate. Sir, consumer has no choice but to give in writing as desired by them as he has to run his unit. In the market trader is selling plates at Rs.54/- Kg because of shortage of material. Consumer finds that 20% enhanced rate is still cheaper than what he gets from the market, thus gives in writing that he is interested at the unofficial price of main producer. It is not out of place to mention here that this material given to consumer is sold to trader by the consumer and not processed. This all is going on with the connivance of the officials of SAIL and RINL as this goes on profit sharing basis in which these officials are party to it.
You are requested to direct officials of SAIL and RINL to discontinue these unfair trade practices and pump in the material in the market to bring down the prices.
...
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
nmdc will move up veri fast if the decision of 25 % is effective ...
In reply to:
Finmin under pressure to dilute new public float norm
Posted by : MMB Messenger
The Finance Ministry is under pressure from corporate biggies to dilute its draft norms for making 25% public float mandatory. Corporates also want more time to adjust to the new norms. This notification will impact every Sensex stock and could hit new issues significantly.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
This is a clear copy from Jeep and my first reaction was how can these folks lift the design so blatantly....
In reply to:
Chrysler-M&M in spat over Scorpio's front grill
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Chrysler and Mahindra and Mahindra have got into a spat over Scorpio's front grill, reports CNBC-TV18 quoting sources. Chrysler claims M&M copied its jeep front grill design and shape. M&M and Chrysler are in discussions on the issue for more than a month. If the matter goes to court, it may impact Scorpio's US launch and domestic plans.
More from the General
Poll
 |
Popular Boarders 7days| 293 | |
| 242 | |
| 170 | |
| 167 | |
| 120 | |
Top Tracked 7days| 791 | |
| 705 | |
| 676 | |
| 369 | |
| 364 | |
Prolific Boarders 7days| 299 | |
| 232 | |
| 170 | |
| 133 | |