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Market Analysis - Technical View
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
two things:
how does TRIN work when there is ban on short selling
does it work in times of such unbelievable volatility?...
In reply to:
Tuesday 7th September
Posted by :
radhika_nandlal
So the commercial paper funding news was leaked... else the NYSE TRIN couldnt have been so overbought on Friday and monday at 0.1 and 0.5 respectively even when they fell hard. 
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European markets tumbled last night, and the US indices also made big losses, though they closed well above their lows. Asian markets are mixed this morning, and the ones that are in the red have climbed up from their lows. This suggests that select stocks may recover today....
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It is reported FII`s sold about 10 bls which caused crash.fii`stotal holding may be many times over.LIC reportdly invested 20k crs witout any relief to market.The rott seems unstoppable.The turmoil in USA/EAUROPE is far serious.When it ends is presently unknown.It is so far subprime.what will happen if defaults occur in loans/corporate bonds is any body`s call....
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by : Bull 2008
Dear udydudy
We have seen margin pressures in the markets, bankruptcy came next and many bank have gone burst in the US.
But still we are in a denial mode to sell stocks by the public in general and also seen less redemption pressures on mutual fund.
we are just seeing the distressed selling from the FII`s which is moving the index down.
But we not seen the mass exodus still by the public hence the capitulation has not been witnessed here in India still and has to take off and sooner the better.
Capitulation in india might be at the stage when we see 50%-60% sell off from top on the index.
Cheers
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retail also needs to change their game plan, no fixed game plan can work. when naked shorts can mint money, what is need of buying....
In reply to:
TURNING AHEAD 30 Sep 08
Posted by :
narendrankb
Whatyou are speaking dear.Silverline,Arvindmils,tatasteel all were the stocks you gave a call to buy and see today all these stocks are 50-70percent down from your level.Only Shankarsharma,Ramesh damani practised aid what they said publically.Do any retail investors have any money to buy now?Any one can give cal like you without any accountability factor.Operators are short and not long .Elections does not always leads to Teji.HAve guts to say ,I gave wrong call and sorry to all the investors who are suffering because of me.
Tracked by: 2 Boarders
Dear Mohan,
Along with shakti`s Picks, you can have a contradian view and PICK on e bank and one Construction, IDBI and HCC or GMR Infra....
In reply to:
HELP HELP HELP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by :
mohanji
Dear shakti,
Thanks for your encouraging words.can I have your five pics in order of priority for cash purchase?Regards
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
few months back, $ was loosing sign of global currency and now Hoarding of dollar, thats fresh....
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by : Bull 2008
Dear kentmss
Nifty was at 1000 in 2003 and we are back to Dec 2006 levels. We have given two years of gains in just 10 months and still the poison is not out the system.
This is the worst problem of the decade and may not easily move out of the way. We have witnessed 50% of value eroded in some big stocks like sterlite in just one month. Hoarding of dollar is just saying very different story which might unfold soon.
Cheer
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
3200 next on nifty without draft play, with draft play raj can tell....
In reply to:
3600 gone , what NEXT ? 2755 or 4405?
Posted by : Lalitdeshpandey
Dear Boarders and Moderators,
Most popular and live thread ,WILL Nifty Hit 3600 and Sensex 12000???
now 3600 gone , what NEXT ??
2755 or 4405 ?????
It would be of much help if few of experts can post their logical views.
(Views backed by TA or Logic )
I reuest all experts to share, including MMB Team, Udayan Mukherji, Emkay stock and most popular NIFTY MASTER, Kotak Investments...
Thanks,
lalit.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear lalit,
You have posted a broad range, you will see one of the target reached by next month end...!!! don`t ask me which one...!!...
In reply to:
3600 gone , what NEXT ? 2755 or 4405?
Posted by : Lalitdeshpandey
Dear Boarders and Moderators,
Most popular and live thread ,WILL Nifty Hit 3600 and Sensex 12000???
now 3600 gone , what NEXT ??
2755 or 4405 ?????
It would be of much help if few of experts can post their logical views.
(Views backed by TA or Logic )
I reuest all experts to share, including MMB Team, Udayan Mukherji, Emkay stock and most popular NIFTY MASTER, Kotak Investments...
Thanks,
lalit.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear kentmss
Nifty was at 1000 in 2003 and we are back to Dec 2006 levels. We have given two years of gains in just 10 months and still the poison is not out the system.
This is the worst problem of the decade and may not easily move out of the way. We have witnessed 50% of value eroded in some big stocks like sterlite in just one month. Hoarding of dollar is just saying very different story which might unfold soon.
Cheer
...
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by : kentmss
Dear udydudy,
Your message deserves a 5 Star Rating and I have given so. You are bang on target. Even Prashant Jain of HDFC Mutual Fund has said "You find Multibaggers more in a Bear Market". The markets may fall another 10%, even 20%, but it will not become a Zero. These FIIs are in a Bad Shape, they HAVE to sell to meet the Redemption Presurre they are facing back home. It is THEY who are facing the problem and hence selling, they Why should You and me sell, it is the time to BUY.
India is in a High Growth Mode. Smart money always chases High Growth. And it will not be long before the Inflows start flowing again.
Then, my dear friend, don`t cry over split milk and say you missed the rally again.
Buy, now. Preferably spread your investment and stagger them.
Best of all, invest through Mutual Funds for Maximum Returns with Minimum Effort.
Best of luck,
Srikanth Shankar Matrubai.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear udydudy
We have seen margin pressures in the markets, bankruptcy came next and many bank have gone burst in the US.
But still we are in a denial mode to sell stocks by the public in general and also seen less redemption pressures on mutual fund.
we are just seeing the distressed selling from the FII`s which is moving the index down.
But we not seen the mass exodus still by the public hence the capitulation has not been witnessed here in India still and has to take off and sooner the better.
Capitulation in india might be at the stage when we see 50%-60% sell off from top on the index.
Cheers...
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by : udydudy
In the last 4-5 years I do not think the markets have given such a buying oppourtunity. If there is a capitulation ahead today, Buy all fundamentally strong stocks without hesitation.
Markets will recover...Do not listen to scaremongerers, Do you think India is winding up??? yes there is doom and gloom ahead but the markets will recover. Invest what you can hold for a year or so and you will see double to triple digit gains over a 2 year period.
Buffet also made a paper loss on his first investment but finally made money when he sold which went on to give 4 times more returns had he held on..which is when he learnt to hold for the long term...
Look at the past the US came out of the great depression as well. The markets recovered long before the economy did.
Is reliance closing down?? then why the closing down sale on its stock price?? The reason is that sensex/index based scrips have FII holding who may be selling for cash flow reasons, as well as hedge funds selling to take advantage of the fera in the market.
I believe in a simple theory When the panwalla(no offence he may e richer and cleverer than you and me) asks you "saab kya share leneka?" is the time to sell and when everybody says sell the world is coming to an end is the right time to BUY!!
In the short term you may lose money on paper but when it recovers your paper loses disappear soonner than you can blink your eye!!!
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear udydudy,
Your message deserves a 5 Star Rating and I have given so. You are bang on target. Even Prashant Jain of HDFC Mutual Fund has said "You find Multibaggers more in a Bear Market". The markets may fall another 10%, even 20%, but it will not become a Zero. These FIIs are in a Bad Shape, they HAVE to sell to meet the Redemption Presurre they are facing back home. It is THEY who are facing the problem and hence selling, they Why should You and me sell, it is the time to BUY.
India is in a High Growth Mode. Smart money always chases High Growth. And it will not be long before the Inflows start flowing again.
Then, my dear friend, don`t cry over split milk and say you missed the rally again.
Buy, now. Preferably spread your investment and stagger them.
Best of all, invest through Mutual Funds for Maximum Returns with Minimum Effort.
Best of luck,
Srikanth Shankar Matrubai.
...
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by : udydudy
In the last 4-5 years I do not think the markets have given such a buying oppourtunity. If there is a capitulation ahead today, Buy all fundamentally strong stocks without hesitation.
Markets will recover...Do not listen to scaremongerers, Do you think India is winding up??? yes there is doom and gloom ahead but the markets will recover. Invest what you can hold for a year or so and you will see double to triple digit gains over a 2 year period.
Buffet also made a paper loss on his first investment but finally made money when he sold which went on to give 4 times more returns had he held on..which is when he learnt to hold for the long term...
Look at the past the US came out of the great depression as well. The markets recovered long before the economy did.
Is reliance closing down?? then why the closing down sale on its stock price?? The reason is that sensex/index based scrips have FII holding who may be selling for cash flow reasons, as well as hedge funds selling to take advantage of the fera in the market.
I believe in a simple theory When the panwalla(no offence he may e richer and cleverer than you and me) asks you "saab kya share leneka?" is the time to sell and when everybody says sell the world is coming to an end is the right time to BUY!!
In the short term you may lose money on paper but when it recovers your paper loses disappear soonner than you can blink your eye!!!
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
BSE Capital Goods index declined 4%; market breadth was bearish - out of over 2,680 scrips traded, over 1,815 declined
...
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So the commercial paper funding news was leaked... else the NYSE TRIN couldnt have been so overbought on Friday and monday at 0.1 and 0.5 respectively even when they fell hard....
In reply to:
Tuesday 7th September
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
The dow and nifty both show accumulation. Dow shows accumulation for two days in a row. I FEEL today they close with robust gains.
The NYSE TRIN is once again overbought at 0.5 inspite of the fall.
Our own TRIN at 3 is grossly grossly oversold perhaps reflecting a fair bit of shorts which should get covered causing a rally. But otherwise all indices only indicate bearishness.
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You described it correctly. But we are yet to see capitualtion of index heavy weights. Midcaps & small caps have been cut to size, so downside is not so great as compared to hwat heavy weights have in store. Nifty has to touch 3000. This will be gradual process, like slowly killing medicine. The survivors will see the light at the end of tunnel....
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by : chief_kamani
As a bear market really gets rolling, fear turns to desperation, desperation turns to panic, panic turns to capitulation, and capitulation turns to despondency.Finally, despondency morphs into depression, just as the market begins to turn higher. We think it is clear that we have seen panic and capitulation over the last couple of weeks.So in last few weeks,there was a look of despondency and depression on the faces of Equity Investors!!So now we are likely to get into a very interesting phase,in which no one can predict which ways the Markets are headed to!!India still has internal consumption and growth story!!But the constant FII Selling,rising dollar,low liquidity,high interest rates,inflation & loss of investor confidence are playing
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As a bear market really gets rolling, fear turns to desperation, desperation turns to panic, panic turns to capitulation, and capitulation turns to despondency.Finally, despondency morphs into depression, just as the market begins to turn higher. We think it is clear that we have seen panic and capitulation over the last couple of weeks.So in last few weeks,there was a look of despondency and depression on the faces of Equity Investors!!So now we are likely to get into a very interesting phase,in which no one can predict which ways the Markets are headed to!!India still has internal consumption and growth story!!But the constant FII Selling,rising dollar,low liquidity,high interest rates,inflation & loss of investor confidence are playing...
In reply to:
Capitulation!! Buying Opportunity Galore!!!
Posted by : udydudy
In the last 4-5 years I do not think the markets have given such a buying oppourtunity. If there is a capitulation ahead today, Buy all fundamentally strong stocks without hesitation.
Markets will recover...Do not listen to scaremongerers, Do you think India is winding up??? yes there is doom and gloom ahead but the markets will recover. Invest what you can hold for a year or so and you will see double to triple digit gains over a 2 year period.
Buffet also made a paper loss on his first investment but finally made money when he sold which went on to give 4 times more returns had he held on..which is when he learnt to hold for the long term...
Look at the past the US came out of the great depression as well. The markets recovered long before the economy did.
Is reliance closing down?? then why the closing down sale on its stock price?? The reason is that sensex/index based scrips have FII holding who may be selling for cash flow reasons, as well as hedge funds selling to take advantage of the fera in the market.
I believe in a simple theory When the panwalla(no offence he may e richer and cleverer than you and me) asks you "saab kya share leneka?" is the time to sell and when everybody says sell the world is coming to an end is the right time to BUY!!
In the short term you may lose money on paper but when it recovers your paper loses disappear soonner than you can blink your eye!!!
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