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Moneycontrol.com >> Message Board >> View Messages >> Market Outlook - Short Term
   You are here :     Moneycontrol     MMB    Market View      Market Outlook - Short Term                         Most active discussions of 2006 , 2007 & 2008
Mkts look weak amid negative global cues (3)   25-Jul-08 18:12Tracked by (2)  
Posted by:   udydudy on ( 25-Jul-08 18:12 )
I can understand your feeling. It depends on why you though in april that those levels were the bottom?? just because the markets fell 25-30%? or was it fundamentals?, technicals?.
Its what you use to identify the bottom that matters. ALso no one can predict perfect that this figure is the bottom thats why you average your purchases around the figure that you feel is the bottom. That way your average price will be as close to the bottom as possible.
For example my target for the top of the bull run was 18000-18500 around sept - oct 2008. but in the next 2 months it did 21k+. I started selling 10-15% of my portfolio with every 500 points rise and all the way back down to 18500 the average price i got was around 19500-20000 sensex levels.
Same was my target for the bottom was 12500 and I started buying at 13000 and bought all the way to 12500 and back up to 13000 leaving 25% in cash for any excessive downward movements. Since it went too fast to 15k i sold 30% of my purchases day before and yesterday so I am 50% of my protfolio in cash.
In this dip I will start buying a little higher at 13700 onwards and fully invest every 500 pt dip in sensex. Ofcourse my guiding point is to identify fundamentally strong stocks(normally index ones) and then time the buying using technicals.
I prefer not using any market TIPS to sway my decisions(Totally inappropriate & poor suggestions), otherwise at 21000 you would find everyone bing bullish and at 12500 everyone being bearish!!! tajke your pick!!

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