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Market outlook in this week (06-10-2008):

Again all the targets achieved, winning is part of game and the heart of the game. We are winning, winning, and winning consistently.
I personally advise to avoid trading in these huge volatile conditions, CBOE VIX at six year peak above 40 tells the fact. Sudden swings can hit the stop losses very simply hence better to avoid trading.

We will see a green closing in the early days of the week and will give us the good shorting opportunities
Even after that if you wish to take the risk, then go for the below call, We will see a green closing in the early days of the week and will give us the good shorting opportunities. Go short nifty above 3950 with a stop loss of 4050 targeting the 3875 3810 3750 at 3750 we can have strong bounce which will again give you the same shorting opportunity at higher levels.
This week nifty will trading range is between 3725-4050. At higher levels go short with stiff stop loss.

Advance cheers
with thanks
be and make

Previous weeks Market outlook (29-09-2008):

Wow, again all the targets achieved. It seems that I becoming a big trader instead of the investor ;)
Of course finally I am making money so well even in these turbulent times.

To give the market outlook for this week is really a testing time for any one. In this week, my advice to all is to avoid trading due huge volatility/ uncertainty. If you can take risk then you can go through this call,

Here I will give three strategies which can work for us;
1. Go short nifty below 3950 (if it dips) targeting the T1:3910 T2:3855 with a stop loss 3995.
2. Short straddle by selling the 4100 nifty call and put looking for the band 3850-4150 to book profits on either side.
I will prefer the second one due to some good news going on, like 700bn$ rescue package, indo-us nuke at the final hurdle but I strongly believe that these news can give just relief rallies or give us opportunities to open fresh shorts.

Advance cheers
With thanks
Be and make

Previous weeks Market outlook (22-09-2008):

1. Global financial crisis may not be solved by the 800bn$ rescue operation! According to the analysts we are going to see more bankrupts/bailouts in US. Government may not buy all the companies and also the problem is that the current prices of mortgages are slipped drastically. So, defaults are much more, by knowing this US govt. put the ‘ban on shorting the financials’. Even this 800bn$ will contribute less than the 8% of total mortgage market and also it will be used within the two year period. So, if much more defaults happen then the real picture will emerge.
2. As crude rise our domestic problems again in a bumpy road
3. Our economy is now going with huge fiscal deficit government still giving various subsidies due to the upcoming elections
4. Global EMs and BR_C equities are trading around 10 price multiple but whereas India trading at 18 PE (Nifty)
5. FIIs are not pumping funds to India they are just withdrawing as much as possible, so no inflows in the near term
6. Due to high interest rates Q2 margins are going to shrink further and will make Sensex/nifty much costlier.
7. History tells us that bear markets lasts more than 14 -36months means we are just 9 months old and still valuations looks very highly valued means we are going to break the 3800 in the near term.

So, no need to go panic for bottom fishing.
market ourlook for this week;
There may be a gap up opening on monday (not above the nifty 80points) and use this up move to go short.
T1:4150
T2:4070
T3:3975
But, better to book profits 50% at T1 and 25@ at T2&T3. The stiff stop loss should be observed at 4450.

Conclusion:

The stocks I prefer are purely based on the fundamentals not on technicals so should hold at least 6-18 months.

Present my holdings (As on 06-10-2008):

1NIL-

Stocks interested to Pick:

From large caps for short term Rel cap, BHEL and Alstom. From Mid cap for long term bartronics, ICSA, and adhunik met etc.,

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Happy Investing

K A L Y A N

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