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Market Outlook - Short Term
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
dear aru,
I am talking ,after taking the splits and bonuses in to account.
HCC was 80 plus levels in June 2006( cmp-47).
Bajaj hind was at 270 levels in June 2006( cmp-59).
NCC was at 85 levels in June 2006(cmp 53).
How ever Punj was at 110 levels in August 2006(cmp 192).
Even counters like LIC housing finance,ONGC, SBI are still at much better levels compared to lows in 2006.
We may see more fall in index stocks in the days to come.
regards...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
vam_aru
Dear Novice1000,
No stock will be spared, some stocks looks cheaper because they are all splited / given bonues, The persons who missed out on the last two years run can easily come in and start investing in the markets gradually, and reap in good returns... 
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear Novice1000,
No stock will be spared, some stocks looks cheaper because they are all splited / given bonues, The persons who missed out on the last two years run can easily come in and start investing in the markets gradually, and reap in good returns......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : novice1000
dear aru,
yes in June 2006, it was just a major correction in markets.Thats what i tried to explain HLN also.
Right now there are many shares which are trading at much lower levels compared to June 2006 levels.
Stocks like HCC,NCC,Bajaj are at much lower levels compared to that time.
Punj is still at higher levels compared to earlier lows in 2006.
regards
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
dear aru,
yes in June 2006, it was just a major correction in markets.Thats what i tried to explain HLN also.
Right now there are many shares which are trading at much lower levels compared to June 2006 levels.
Stocks like HCC,NCC,Bajaj are at much lower levels compared to that time.
Punj is still at higher levels compared to earlier lows in 2006.
regards...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : vam_aru
Dear snvaish,
Bang on, You have described the difference between the 2006 crash and 2008 crash, Currentlyalmost all the shares about to be traded at June 2006 levels, still some more sector price rotation on the cards, due to this process we might be seeing lower levels, So one needs to take a very long term outlook and look to invest in markets with out any hurry, and look to protect his port folio and earn something from his portfolio..
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
dear ravipratap,
I have been telling that problem is severe. Where did i say it is a small problem. I guess you havent read my earlier msgs.
I was just telling pkjatt that even if US is not in recession, in that kind of matured economies, indicies will never move from 9000 to 21000 levels in 2 years.
Hope you got it.
The present crisis is second only to great depression in 1929 and this was known almost from the past one year.
regards...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : ravipratap61
WE sitting in far INDIA cannot gauge the density of problem US is....
the USA financial system has completely collapsed....GOLD is the best indicator of world economy...the huge rise in gold price in not a good sign for world econmy it points to a deep crises.
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear snvaish,
Bang on, You have described the difference between the 2006 crash and 2008 crash, Currentlyalmost all the shares about to be traded at June 2006 levels, still some more sector price rotation on the cards, due to this process we might be seeing lower levels, So one needs to take a very long term outlook and look to invest in markets with out any hurry, and look to protect his port folio and earn something from his portfolio.....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : snvaish
Now one thing keep in mind before considering double or triple bottom. the economic conditions in June 06 were diffrent and now those conditions are diffrent.(1) then subprime crices was not there, that time fall was only due to profit booking, now sub prime crices is there.(2) then sensex was above 200 day moving average and now it is bellow 200 day moving average. (3) then fall was in bull market now fall is in bear market.
hence keeping expectation of revival of market in that style ( 2006) will be only day dreaming. this time fall is destroying economy of many contries, many bulls ( FIis ) are becoming bancrupt.
Hence Unless sensex is not start trading above 200 day moving average, shorting at each bounce will be the only best style of trading. for comming above the sensex above 200 day moving average it may take still atleast one year.
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
WE sitting in far INDIA cannot gauge the density of problem US is....
the USA financial system has completely collapsed....GOLD is the best indicator of world economy...the huge rise in gold price in not a good sign for world econmy it points to a deep crises....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : novice1000
dear pkjatt,
Dont be that innocent.
A stagnant economy(even if it comes out of recession) like US markets develop at very slow pace.Dow reaching levels of 21000 two years from now is virtually impossible.
regards
Tracked by: 3 Boarders
for amarawargaonkar
I already replied you on my blogsite. As i mentioned there, it is the Brokers who make the market. Investors are generally followers. This is why you always here - so and so broker gave me this tip and that. It takes courage to say what you want to say. Just see the earlier comment who pokes a fund at me for having made the prediction of 2400 rally in 7 days - he has read only headline not the contents of the message, so he will go on writing in peculiar English and hurl abuses at me. You also experienced that - so do not worry.
I have selectively started buying. I am also losing very little in some of the scrips but in some i have gained like HPCL, BPCL, even Air Deccan (in two lots I made money, but in one old lot, I am losing a bit), Spicejet - twice I made good money, I also bought more recently. I have not touched blue chips but will buy cash rich companies like ITC, MTNL, Hindustan Level (where I made good money - already sold at profit). I am still losing in IFCI (cost Rs 36 - one lot I bought below 30 sold over Rs 35.85), GV Films etc. but the my invesment is very small, and what I have invested is in the same couner where I had earlier quadrupled. I have bought back Essar Oil (120/132 and 158), Essar shipping (Rs 54/66/72) and RNRL (59/68) GSPL (44/36). I will be stepping up the purchases in another meltdown. Any stock you buy today, will have downside of 20% minimum, so If you can muster this loss, then invest, otherwise make money in your hotel. Yes, I will come to Aurangabad once - and in that case - i will need a hotel to stay in. My father in law many years ago lived in that city for over 4 years. I will be coming to India in early November
Kalidas, Hong Kong
12-10-2008...
In reply to:
Americans Common Sense Prevails...
Posted by :
amarawargaonkar
Dear Kalidasji,
I had lost 1.5lakhs in the january fall.
I sold of all my portfolio in panic became an ardent follower of your thoughts and stayed out of market.
I saw my portfolio i have saved nearly 1 lakh rupees by taking profits in mutual funds, converting my ulips to safer debt portion buying gold etc.
Thank you sir your advice has been the greatest.
I echo your views whenever i go to my religare branch at aurangabad where i have my account.
All of them now hear me with utmost attention.
My views are taken as coming from some one who knows the market.
Earlier these guys would fight with me, hurl abuses and make fun of me see how the situation has changed.
It is all because of you.
Sir i own an hotel at aurangabad if by chance you visit nearby place do come and grace our hotel with your presence.
I would send you all the details to you by email.
Kindly send me your email id.
I will send my email id to you through the comments section of your LATEST blog (the one with warren buffets drawing).
Regards.
Amarawargaonkar
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
The message was as usual, not fully printed. The rest of the main report is as under.
RBI Bovernor said "In the capital market, FIIs have pulled out 10.05 billion dollars net in 2008 so far, while they have net pumped in 2.15 billion dollars in the debt market, according to SEBI figures.
Subbarao said emerging economies, which do not have direct or significant exposure to stressed financial instruments and troubled financial institutions are experiencing the indirect impact of the crisis.
He said that the impact is "by no means insignificant or trivial. Indeed, it could intensify in the months ahead."
full report will be available in Indian Press in a few hours.
v.krishnamoorthy...
In reply to:
What our RBI governor said in IMF meet.
Posted by : Leave it.
Our FM cancelled his trip to attend the meet on Friday. Rbi governor spoke on his behalf. His remarks is given below as reported in the press here in US Sunday morning.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Our FM cancelled his trip to attend the meet on Friday. Rbi governor spoke on his behalf. His remarks is given below as reported in the press here in US Sunday morning.
...
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
hahahah...lol....its possible....only if momentum traders get back to work......lol ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : novice1000
dear pkjatt,
Dont be that innocent.
A stagnant economy(even if it comes out of recession) like US markets develop at very slow pace.Dow reaching levels of 21000 two years from now is virtually impossible.
regards
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
dear pkjatt,
Dont be that innocent.
A stagnant economy(even if it comes out of recession) like US markets develop at very slow pace.Dow reaching levels of 21000 two years from now is virtually impossible.
regards
...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkjattking
Anyways that what happen in june 2006 in sensex is exactly what is going on on Dow......today..... It will b interesting to see if history repete itself.,..... which means Dow at 21000 two years from now....
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
dear snvaish,
Fully agree with what you said about the revival of bull market.
regards...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : snvaish
Now one thing keep in mind before considering double or triple bottom. the economic conditions in June 06 were diffrent and now those conditions are diffrent.(1) then subprime crices was not there, that time fall was only due to profit booking, now sub prime crices is there.(2) then sensex was above 200 day moving average and now it is bellow 200 day moving average. (3) then fall was in bull market now fall is in bear market.
hence keeping expectation of revival of market in that style ( 2006) will be only day dreaming. this time fall is destroying economy of many contries, many bulls ( FIis ) are becoming bancrupt.
Hence Unless sensex is not start trading above 200 day moving average, shorting at each bounce will be the only best style of trading. for comming above the sensex above 200 day moving average it may take still atleast one year.
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
yes you are rite .. I missed it ... no problem.... looks like very volatile month back than.......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : novice1000
dear pkjatt,
I am pasting the information from your post.
--------------------------------------------------------
14-Jun-06 9,156.97 9,387.06 8,799.01 8,929.44 27,400.
--------------------------------------------------------
Anyways i dint get that information from any place.The blood bath on June 13, 2006 is still afresh in mind and i remember the figures very well and the data in your own post supports what i said.
regards
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Anyways that what happen in june 2006 in sensex is exactly what is going on on Dow......today..... It will b interesting to see if history repete itself.,..... which means Dow at 21000 two years from now.......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : novice1000
dear pkjatt,
Sensex reached levels of 8900 in june 2006.
Anyways remember the below mentioned things
1)About those duble bottoms.. those support levels work in normal markets but not in this kind of markets.
2)Whether sensex goes below 9000 or not doesnt make any difference and markets wont go for a bull run either in 2008 or 2009.
Just expect some technical bounces before it touching the new lows.After touching those new lows, it will move up by 1000 to 1500 points and then form a base there which will be followed by good amount of consolidation.
regards
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
dear pkjatt,
I am pasting the information from your post.
--------------------------------------------------------
14-Jun-06 9,156.97 9,387.06 8,799.01 8,929.44 27,400.
--------------------------------------------------------
Anyways i dint get that information from any place.The blood bath on June 13, 2006 is still afresh in mind and i remember the figures very well and the data in your own post supports what i said.
regards...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : pkjattking
No it did not I don`t know from where you getting this information........
BSE SENSEX
(INDEXBOM:.BSESN) - Daily | Weekly
-
Date Open High Low Close Volume
30-Jun-06 10,316.12 10,626.84 10,316.12 10,609.25 30,600
29-Jun-06 10,193.94 10,326.05 10,109.56 10,162.16 20,200
28-Jun-06 10,067.55 10,204.66 9,909.76 10,129.70 26,000
27-Jun-06 10,058.29 10,224.26 9,902.33 10,151.01 31,400
26-Jun-06 10,427.85 10,451.47 9,991.12 10,042.06 21,800
23-Jun-06 10,201.31 10,453.61 10,025.19 10,401.30 22,600
22-Jun-06 10,093.38 10,362.74 10,093.38 10,275.88 22,400
21-Jun-06 9,797.87 10,054.05 9,757.54 10,040.14 24,800
20-Jun-06 9,958.33 9,958.33 9,745.17 9,822.52 22,400
19-Jun-06 9,903.11 10,049.94 9,755.21 9,997.84 20,800
16-Jun-06 9,703.06 10,118.28 9,703.06 9,884.51 33,400
15-Jun-06 9,133.36 9,582.97 9,092.16 9,545.06 26,200
14-Jun-06 9,156.97 9,387.06 8,799.01 8,929.44 27,400
13-Jun-06 9,360.06 9,360.06 8,993.58 9,062.65 28,000
12-Jun-06 9,858.47 9,859.38 9,428.03 9,476.15 20,400
9-Jun-06 9,270.78 9,849.20 9,262.20 9,810.46 29,400
8-Jun-06 9,664.90 9,664.90 9,200.80 9,295.81 36,800
7-Jun-06 9,919.28 10,051.81 9,609.21 9,756.76 27,000
6-Jun-06 10,087.96 10,192.73 9,884.89 9,957.32 26,200
5-Jun-06 10,537.08 10,552.38 10,186.33 10,213.48 19,200
2-Jun-06 10,104.57 10,477.35 10,011.45 10,451.33 28,400
1-Jun-06 10,472.46 10,597.23 10,017.82 10,071.42 24,200
Poll
Udayan's Market Outlook
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Investors should stay in cash, not sell in panic | |
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| Udayan Mukherjee, Stocks Editor, TV18 | ||
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