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India last bastion for high jobs growth
NEW DELHI: Bad times in the West may force companies to offshore more jobs to cheaper destinations like India, making it the last bastion for jobs growth, although US President-elect Barack Obama is vocally against outsourcing.
US-based staffing services firm Manpower, whose India business has grown 50% this year, sees some slowing down in ITeS and finance sectors in the short-term but growth would return by mid-summer when effects of stimulus packages announced by multiple countries start showing, its CEO Jeff Joerres said.
"In the global scenario India looks optimistic. Though the employment outlook looks slightly down but optimistic on a relative basis... we have to see how the wave hits the shores," he said.
However, companies that struggled to justify outsourcing in good times would find it easier to move jobs to low-cost destination citing savings, Joerres said.
Obama, in the run up to the presidential election, had spoken of ending tax breaks for companies that shift jobs overseas and give them to those investing at home.
Since the sub-prime credit crisis brewed into a global economic storm, there has been a 15-20% slowdown in jobs growth globally as companies see their bottom lines shrinking.
Besides India, the countries that look promising in terms of hiring are China, Middle East and East Europe. These countries are likely to report promising growth rate as they have a booming domestic market and also because the base is small, he said.
A survey by Manpower in September had ranked India as the most optimistic market for new jobs.
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In reply to:
Job losses....
Posted by :
chchch
Sambala, In reference to the Citigroup Chairman`s statement, in the Indian context, don`t you think that it would be irresposible on the part of the Central Govt./Fin.Min. incase they agree for salary revision of bank employees leave alone job-cuts (since Prime Minister himself is against job-cuts in any industry in this financial turmoil and he is (indirectly)agreeable for reduced wages) just before Parliamentary elections? 
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no., markets are now awaiting good senario....
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Sambala, In reference to the Citigroup Chairman`s statement, in the Indian context, don`t you think that it would be irresposible on the part of the Central Govt./Fin.Min. incase they agree for salary revision of bank employees leave alone job-cuts (since Prime Minister himself is against job-cuts in any industry in this financial turmoil and he is (indirectly)agreeable for reduced wages) just before Parliamentary elections?...
In reply to:
Job losses....
Posted by : sambala
Deep Cuts Planned at Citi
Bank Will Cut 50,000 Jobs, Slash Expenses by 20%
NEW YORK -- Citigroup Inc. is cutting approximately 53,000 more jobs in the coming quarters as the banking giant struggles to steady itself after suffering massive losses from deteriorating debt.
The plans, posted on the company`s Web site, are being discussed by CEO Vikram Pandit at the company`s town hall meeting in New York Monday with employees.
The company said total headcount is being reduced by 20% from its peak of 375,000 at the end of 2007; the company had already announced in October that it was eliminating about 22,000 jobs from those levels.
Citigroup is also planning to reduce expenses by 20%, targeting 2009 expenses of $50 billion to $52 billion.
The New York-based bank has posted four straight quarterly losses, including a loss of $2.8 billion during the third quarter.
Shortly before the town hall meeting in New York, Citigroup Chairman Win Bischoff said at a business forum in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, that it would be irresponsible for Citi and other companies not to look at staffing in the event of a prolonged economic downturn.
"What all of us have done -- and perhaps injudiciously -- we`ve added a lot of people over … this very benign period," Mr. Bischoff said.
"If there is a reversion to the mean … those job losses will obviously fall particularly heavily on the financial sector," he added. "Certainly they will fall particularly heavily on London and New York."
In his comments to the Associated Press, Mr. Bischoff didn`t rule out the likelihood that Citi`s leaders would go without bonuses this year -- a move that would effectively amount to a substantial pay cut for the company`s executives.
"Watch this space," he said when asked about lost bonuses.
On Sunday, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said seven top executives, including Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein, opted out of receiving cash or stock bonuses for 2008 amid the ongoing credit crisis.
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Deep Cuts Planned at Citi
Bank Will Cut 50,000 Jobs, Slash Expenses by 20%
NEW YORK -- Citigroup Inc. is cutting approximately 53,000 more jobs in the coming quarters as the banking giant struggles to steady itself after suffering massive losses from deteriorating debt.
The plans, posted on the company`s Web site, are being discussed by CEO Vikram Pandit at the company`s town hall meeting in New York Monday with employees.
The company said total headcount is being reduced by 20% from its peak of 375,000 at the end of 2007; the company had already announced in October that it was eliminating about 22,000 jobs from those levels.
Citigroup is also planning to reduce expenses by 20%, targeting 2009 expenses of $50 billion to $52 billion.
The New York-based bank has posted four straight quarterly losses, including a loss of $2.8 billion during the third quarter.
Shortly before the town hall meeting in New York, Citigroup Chairman Win Bischoff said at a business forum in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, that it would be irresponsible for Citi and other companies not to look at staffing in the event of a prolonged economic downturn.
"What all of us have done -- and perhaps injudiciously -- we`ve added a lot of people over … this very benign period," Mr. Bischoff said.
"If there is a reversion to the mean … those job losses will obviously fall particularly heavily on the financial sector," he added. "Certainly they will fall particularly heavily on London and New York."
In his comments to the Associated Press, Mr. Bischoff didn`t rule out the likelihood that Citi`s leaders would go without bonuses this year -- a move that would effectively amount to a substantial pay cut for the company`s executives.
"Watch this space," he said when asked about lost bonuses.
On Sunday, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said seven top executives, including Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein, opted out of receiving cash or stock bonuses for 2008 amid the ongoing credit crisis.
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In reply to:
Job losses....
Posted by : marketman
Citi group planning to cut upto 50000 jobs....
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Citi group planning to cut upto 50000 jobs.......
In reply to:
Job losses....
Posted by : sambala
Sun Microsystems to lay off up to 6,000 workers
By announcing one of the biggest tech layoffs so far this year, Sun Microsystems on Friday bought more time for its effort to expand sales and show that a strategy built around open-source software can carry the struggling Santa Clara computer-maker out of the current recession and into profitability.
But analysts said the long-term prognosis is still uncertain for the venerable tech giant, which has been the subject of takeover speculation as its stock price plunged over the past year — even before the economy began battering other Silicon Valley companies.
Sun said Friday that it will lay off between 5,000 and 6,000 workers, more than 15 percent of its global workforce, over the next year. Sun also will reorganize its software business and merge some divisions into other operations. Rich Green, who has been Sun`s executive vice president for software since 2006, will leave the company.
The moves are a response both to the recent economic crunch, which has hit Sun harder than other tech firms, and to a longer-term trend in which customers are buying more lower-cost commodity systems and fewer of the high-end proprietary servers and systems that were Sun`s flagship products for many years.
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The Bush administration has reacted coolly to the idea of a second U.S. stimulus plan.
For Wall Street, the leaders` talk about ways to provide relief probably will be of more importance than efforts to prevent another financial fiasco, experts said. Even without new concrete commitments for government spending, tax cuts or interest rate reductions, the fact that leaders came together to address the crisis and did not let it become a blame game should help bolster some confidence on Wall Street, according to Goldstein, Yamarone and others.
Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, appearing on CNN`s "Late Edition" on Sunday, warned against the making any new financial rules of the road too restrictive.
"There is an inclination, when you get into problems like this to go to an extreme, to over regulate, to think that we`re going to have a worldwide compensation system. How is that going to be done? I think we have to be careful, we have to find a balance and we can`t over regulate so that five years from now we`re trying to claw our way back because we overdid it," he said.
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In reply to:
Welcome to the world of Obamanomics.
Posted by : sambala
Financial overhaul added to Obama`s to-do list
WASHINGTON – Barack Obama isn`t president yet, but his must-do list just got longer. The newest addition to the lengthy list of tasks after taking office: helping oversee the overhaul of the world`s financial regulatory system.
That is one of the assignments to the president-elect from current global leaders after their weekend summit, where they pledged action to avoid a repeat of the financial mess that has caused worldwide economic chaos.
"Obama has a tall order," said Morris Goldstein, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who spent years working at the International Monetary Fund, the world`s financial firefighter.
"He has a lot of things he has to do quickly in a number of areas and doesn`t have a lot of time to think about them," Goldstein said in an interview Sunday.
That will put a lot of pressure on Obama. He did not participate in the emergency two-day summit that concluded Saturday, instead sending representatives to meet with leaders on the sidelines.
After taking the oath of office Jan. 20, Obama will have to figure out in short order how far his administration is willing to go in revamping oversight of financial companies and products, in the United States and abroad, and nailing down the crucial details.
"Obama has an incredible mountain to climb in the way of the economic and financial situation," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research.
President George W. Bush hosted the summit, where nearly two dozen foreign leaders endorsed broad goals to fend off any future calamities and to revive the global economy.
It will be up to finance ministers to flesh out the details to put such changes in place by the end of March. Leaders plan to hold the next summit by April 30 — just months into Obama`s term.
"I think this puts Obama and a new administration in a very difficult position," said Steven Schrage, a former Bush administration trade official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"It`s really going to be up to the next administration to figure, do they breathe life into this? Does this go forward? Do they take it in a different direction?"
All the while, the new president will be under immense pressure to bring relief to millions of Americans who have watched jobs disappear, nest eggs shrink, home values plunge, foreclosures zoom upward and banks — along with storied Wall Street firms — laid low by the financial and economic crises.
"Make no mistake: This is the greatest economic challenge of our times," Obama said Saturday in the weekly Democratic radio address. "And while the road ahead will be long and the work will be hard, I know that we can steer ourselves out of this crisis."
The president-elect himself did not weigh in after the summit about whether he agreed with the thrust of the leaders` broad goals. But he indicated the global gathering was a good idea because "our global economic crisis requires a coordinated global response," he said Saturday.
Translating the leaders` sweeping principles into specific actions will be difficult. "That`s the rub. That`s where you really see the differences across countries in what you want to do," Goldstein said. "In the coming months, we`ll see to what extent Obama`s agenda will conflict with the Europeans."
Leaders pledged to make the global financial system more accountable to investors and less vulnerable to risky investing. But there are sure to be differences of opinion on exactly how to accomplish that, which could impede progress at the next summit in the spring.
To provide relief from the current woes, the leaders supported the benefits of enacting government spending plans to stimulate their economies. But they stopped short of a commitment for all to act at the same time, as some Europeans had favored.
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Financial overhaul added to Obama`s to-do list
WASHINGTON – Barack Obama isn`t president yet, but his must-do list just got longer. The newest addition to the lengthy list of tasks after taking office: helping oversee the overhaul of the world`s financial regulatory system.
That is one of the assignments to the president-elect from current global leaders after their weekend summit, where they pledged action to avoid a repeat of the financial mess that has caused worldwide economic chaos.
"Obama has a tall order," said Morris Goldstein, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who spent years working at the International Monetary Fund, the world`s financial firefighter.
"He has a lot of things he has to do quickly in a number of areas and doesn`t have a lot of time to think about them," Goldstein said in an interview Sunday.
That will put a lot of pressure on Obama. He did not participate in the emergency two-day summit that concluded Saturday, instead sending representatives to meet with leaders on the sidelines.
After taking the oath of office Jan. 20, Obama will have to figure out in short order how far his administration is willing to go in revamping oversight of financial companies and products, in the United States and abroad, and nailing down the crucial details.
"Obama has an incredible mountain to climb in the way of the economic and financial situation," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research.
President George W. Bush hosted the summit, where nearly two dozen foreign leaders endorsed broad goals to fend off any future calamities and to revive the global economy.
It will be up to finance ministers to flesh out the details to put such changes in place by the end of March. Leaders plan to hold the next summit by April 30 — just months into Obama`s term.
"I think this puts Obama and a new administration in a very difficult position," said Steven Schrage, a former Bush administration trade official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"It`s really going to be up to the next administration to figure, do they breathe life into this? Does this go forward? Do they take it in a different direction?"
All the while, the new president will be under immense pressure to bring relief to millions of Americans who have watched jobs disappear, nest eggs shrink, home values plunge, foreclosures zoom upward and banks — along with storied Wall Street firms — laid low by the financial and economic crises.
"Make no mistake: This is the greatest economic challenge of our times," Obama said Saturday in the weekly Democratic radio address. "And while the road ahead will be long and the work will be hard, I know that we can steer ourselves out of this crisis."
The president-elect himself did not weigh in after the summit about whether he agreed with the thrust of the leaders` broad goals. But he indicated the global gathering was a good idea because "our global economic crisis requires a coordinated global response," he said Saturday.
Translating the leaders` sweeping principles into specific actions will be difficult. "That`s the rub. That`s where you really see the differences across countries in what you want to do," Goldstein said. "In the coming months, we`ll see to what extent Obama`s agenda will conflict with the Europeans."
Leaders pledged to make the global financial system more accountable to investors and less vulnerable to risky investing. But there are sure to be differences of opinion on exactly how to accomplish that, which could impede progress at the next summit in the spring.
To provide relief from the current woes, the leaders supported the benefits of enacting government spending plans to stimulate their economies. But they stopped short of a commitment for all to act at the same time, as some Europeans had favored.
...
In reply to:
Welcome to the world of Obamanomics.
Posted by : sambala
Economists See No Growth Until 2nd Half of 2009
The U.S. economy is in the midst of the worst part of the recession, but growth may return by the second half of next year, according to economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey.
"The intensity of decline will wane," said Stephen Stanley of RBS Greenwich Capital. "We`ve cut out a lot of the low-hanging fruit, and it gets progressively tougher to see such rapid rates of decline."
On average the 54 economists surveyed expect gross domestic product to decline 3% at an annualized rate in this year`s fourth quarter. That comes after the Commerce Department reported a 0.3% drop in the third quarter. Another negative reading is forecast for the first three months of next year with an essentially flat reading for the second quarter. Slow growth is seen for the second half of 2009, reaching 2.1% by the fourth quarter.
"By the third quarter of next year a recovery will be under way," said John Lonski of Moody`s Investors Service, but he added that expansion won`t return to pre-crisis levels until 2010.
A number of economists surveyed gave a much more pessimistic forecast, due in part to pressure on consumers. "We`re not only in an economic downturn, but a serious banking crisis. The idea that you can just have a couple of quarters of negative growth and then we`re off to the races is just too optimistic," said Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics, who is predicting GDP contractions throughout next year.
Government action is one reason why some economists see the landscape eventually improving. Nearly two-thirds of respondents say the Treasury Department`s Troubled Asset Relief Program, which has taken stakes in major financial institutions, is helping markets.
"The cost of doing nothing is greater than the cost of doing something, as we saw in the case of Lehman," said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial, referring to the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September. "The idea is still to save the core ideas of a market-based economy, even if that means using government as a bridge to get there."
Economists were supportive of more government stimulus. More than 80% favor a stimulus package in January, even if one is passed before the end of 2008. Some 34% of respondents said the top priority in such a package should be permanent tax cuts. On average, economists said the total size of government stimulus this year and early next should be more than $250 billion.
"By the second half of next year the impact of measures to stimulate the economy should become evident," Mr. Lonski said.
Economists saw other factors boosting the chances of recovery. "Stimulus will help, but it won`t get us out of the problem. It`s tantamount to taking aspirin, as it will only temporarily ease pain," said California State University`s Sung Won Sohn, who cited rebuilding confidence as essential for recovery.
President-elect Barack Obama "needs to extend unemployment, work to stem foreclosures and use other plans to demonstrate that he`s doing something. To stabilize confidence, you need programs to ease pain. People see that they can count on you, and confidence recovers," he said.
Confidence is in short supply these days. In October, the Conference Board`s measure of consumer confidence posted the lowest reading since the survey began in 1967. Consumer spending also has suffered, recording a 0.3% decline in September.
Mounting job losses have exacerbated the consumer downturn, and even though economists are forecasting some improvement by late next year, the picture for the labor market remains grim. On average, respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise to 7.7% by December 2009, up from 6.5% last month, while they see the economy shedding more than 100,000 jobs a month over the next year.
CONT.....
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Infosys grants long leave to few of its employees by cutting their salary to 50%.... thanks to infosys management atleast they are giving 50% salary to their employees instead of removing them by one stroke.... ...
In reply to:
Job losses....
Posted by : sambala
Sun Microsystems to lay off up to 6,000 workers
By announcing one of the biggest tech layoffs so far this year, Sun Microsystems on Friday bought more time for its effort to expand sales and show that a strategy built around open-source software can carry the struggling Santa Clara computer-maker out of the current recession and into profitability.
But analysts said the long-term prognosis is still uncertain for the venerable tech giant, which has been the subject of takeover speculation as its stock price plunged over the past year — even before the economy began battering other Silicon Valley companies.
Sun said Friday that it will lay off between 5,000 and 6,000 workers, more than 15 percent of its global workforce, over the next year. Sun also will reorganize its software business and merge some divisions into other operations. Rich Green, who has been Sun`s executive vice president for software since 2006, will leave the company.
The moves are a response both to the recent economic crunch, which has hit Sun harder than other tech firms, and to a longer-term trend in which customers are buying more lower-cost commodity systems and fewer of the high-end proprietary servers and systems that were Sun`s flagship products for many years.
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NASA astronauts to drink recycled urine in space
London, November 15 (ANI): NASA is launching a machine aboard the space shuttle Endeavour, which will recycle astronauts` urine for consumption as water.
"We did blind taste tests of the water. Nobody had any strong objections. Other than a faint taste of iodine, it is just as refreshing as any other kind of water," the Telegraph quoted NASA`s Bob Bagdigian, the system`s lead engineer, as saying.
"I`ve got some in my fridge. It tastes fine to me," he added.
The launch of the 250million-dollar wastewater recycling machine is part of NASA`s 124th shuttle mission, which was launched on Friday evening from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
The shuttle is expected to arrive at the space station on Sunday.
Besides the water recycler, Endeavour carries two small bedrooms, the station`s first refrigerator, new exercise gear, and a second lavatory.
"With six people you really do need to have a two-bathroom house. It`s a lot more convenient and a lot more efficient," said Endeavour astronaut Sandra Magnus.
NASA said that it wanted to ensure that the water-recycling machine worked well before adding three more astronauts to the station`s crew.
NASA researchers said that they expected to process about six gallons, or 23 litres, of water per day with the new device.
They revealed that their objective was to recover about 92 per cent of the water from the crew`s urine and moisture in the air.
As to the process of recycling the wasterwater, the researchers said that they used an extensive series of purification techniques like distillation - which is somewhat tricky in microgravity - filtration, oxidation, and ionisation.
Bagdigian said that the final step, that is, the addition of iodine helped prevent microbial growth.
He said that the device could process a full day`s worth of wastewater in less than 24 hours.
"Today`s drinking water was yesterday`s waste," he said. (ANI)
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In reply to:
Chandrayaan lowered into final orbit
Posted by : sambala
First pictures of lunar surface clearer than those of other missions: ISRO
Bangalore, Nov 15 (PTI) The first pictures of the craters on lunar surface sent back by India`s moon probe mission which reached the moon last night are "much clearer", Indian Space Research Organization sources here said today.
Some of the craters clicked by the camera mounted on the Moon Impactor Probe are with five metre resolution, as against 15 metre resolution photos taken by moon missions of other countries, they said.
"We can see those craters more clearly", they said.
The sources said it would take almost a year before the entire lunar surface can be photographed.
The moon probe, which had India`s flag painted on it, had plummeted to a crash-landing at the moon`s south pole last night.
ISRO scientists would study the images and data sent back by the probe during its 25-minute descent to prepare for a future soft landing.
The video imaging system on the MIP took pictures of the moon`s surface, the altimeter measured the rate of descent of the probe and the mass spectrometer studied the extremely thin lunar atmosphere. PTI
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Who has made the list? does not really bother me. I am just waiting to make the list - will be happy to be at 100 to start with ;)...
In reply to:
Mukesh Ambani pips Mittal in Forbes India Rich list
Posted by : KotakInvestment
Reliance Industries` Mukesh Ambani has overtaken NRI steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal as the richest Indian in the world, with a net worth of USD 20.8 billion, Forbes said in its annual rich list for the country.
Mittal, who has moved to second position with a net worth of USD 20.8 billion, is followed by Mukesh`s younger brother Anil Ambani, whose wealth stood at USD 12.5 billion.
Telecom czar Sunil Mittal and realtor KP Singh are ranked fourth and fifth with net worth of USD 7.9 billion and USD 7.8 billion, respectively.
The magazine said that the combined net worth of India`s 40 richest has declined by 60 per cent due to weak stock markets amid depreciating rupee against the greenback.
Their total wealth is now USD 139 billion, down from USD 351 billion just a year ago, according to Forbes India Rich List.
"These are painful times for India`s tycoons. The country`s once soaring stock market fell 48 per cent the past year, the rupee depreciated 24 per cent against the dollar, and GDP growth is expected to slow by at least a percentage point, in part owing to double-digit inflation," Forbes Asia said in a statement.
While all 40 tycoons listed last year were billionaires, only 27 have 10-figure net worths now. A net worth of 760 million dollar was needed to make to the list this year, 840 million dollar less than last year.
1. Mukesh Ambani: $ 20.8 billion (as on October 31)
3. Anil Ambani: Rs 54,318 crore ( as on October 31, 2008)
5. Sunil Mittal: Rs 83,946 crore ( as on October 31, 2008)
7. Ratan Tata: Rs. 69,132 crore (as on October 31, 2008)
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This is due to the very high price of oil that was prevailent few months back.
Oil is back at jan 2007 levels. It has been trending down since the beginning of July 2008. We may not see the price in 100s for quite some time to come.
Inflation will come down as oil price have an effect on everything that you use during the course of a day, week, month or year. Including vegetables or groceries - as oil is required to transport them from the field to warehouse to the retail stores.
The reserves will climb back as soon as our import bill of oil will be reduced.
We should use another 63 billion to hedge oil prices in the current levels. That ofcourse is a decision that the govt and FM has to take....
In reply to:
Forex Reserves shrink 63 $ billian in 6 months.
Posted by : KotakInvestment
India’s richest are not the only ones who have lost billions in net worth amid the global meltdown. The country’s central bank has seen its foreign exchange reserves shrink more than $63 billion — enough to fund 600 Moon missions — in less than six months as exports slumped, trade deficit widened on a surge in the oil import bill and foreign investors pulled out of the stock market.
Lately, the reserves are falling at an alarming pace, squeezing much of the room for manoeuvre that India had in the face of the ongoing financial turmoil. The fall was a staggering $31 billion in October, or almost half of the decline since May 23, when reserves touched a record $316 billion.
The fast depletion has serious implications, as it could bring more pressure on the rupee, which has already depreciated about 20 per cent this year and made everything from imported machinery to foreign travel and education more expensive. A weaker rupee could also reverse the recent slide in inflation.
“If this trend continues for more than three months, there could be a problem,” said a top monetary policy official, who didn’t want to be named because the issue is market sensitive.
The government, however, is hopeful that the situation would change once its policy responses begin to play out and stability returns to global financial markets. “We are trying to minimise the drawdown on reserves,” said Suresh Tendulkar, who heads the prime minister’s economic advisory council. He said the Centre is trying to induce NRI deposits and tap sovereign wealth funds, especially from the Gulf. Efforts are underway to revive exports growth, he said.
Earnings growth not as bad as in 2001 but worst is yet to come-Ashwin Ramarathinam
Posted by :
winwathTracked by: 0 Boarder
Senor Kotak....Very well written. I agree with all your points. Hats off to your patience for studying the movement of earnings now and way back in history.
Don`t you think there are two sides to your conclusion- refer your last line "cut a long story short" -
Another version could be:
Markets took a whacking of over 50% in 2001 from its peak on 25Feb, 2000 until its low on 21Sep, 2001. It consolidated between 850 and 1200 levels for almost 5 quarter since the low on 21Sep,2001.
It then took the market only 2 quarters to roar past the peak of 25Feb 2000.
With a 50% shaving in 2000-2001 our earnings went into a negative nose dive. Now, in 2008, even with a 50% + shaving, our earnigs have been reduced, but still hovering in the positive zone.
So it can also be intrepreted as we are in a better situation now than in 2000-2001-2003 down turn.
So what is to stop the Sensex from getting to 25K and Nifty to get to 7k in about 8-10 quarters - after all the foundation is stronger now than in the beginning of the decade.
Just another view point - :)
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In reply to:
Earnings growth not as bad as in 2001 but worst is yet to come-Ashwin Ramarathinam
Posted by : KotakInvestment
Ashwin Ramarathinam:
How bad is the current earnings downturn compared with previous ones? The last time the world economy went into recession and India’s growth slowed substantially was in 2001. Before that, a combination of the impact of the Asian crisis and a credit crunch at home sent growth plummeting in the late 1990s. But so far this year, corporate profit growth has been well above the level in those downturns.
In order to check whether the current profit downturn is already worse than during the earlier periods, we compared the results of all listed firms in the Capitaline database (leaving out the oil companies because their losses skew the picture) in the September quarter with the results of all listed firms seven years ago, in the September 2001 quarter, during the depths of the previous downturn that followed the bursting of the dotcom bubble.
The results are eye-opening. All listed firms (ex-oil) posted an average net profit growth of 8.09% in the September quarter compared with the year-ago period. But seven years ago, in the September 2001 quarter, net profits of all listed firms fell by 22.03% from a year earlier. Incidentally, the rate of profit growth for the sample in the March 2001 quarter was -11.73%, in the June 2001 quarter 3.31%, and in the December 2001 quarter -9.91%. Even if we assume that the economy in 2008 is very different from the economy in 2001, the difference between growth in the last quarter and the contraction in the September 2001 quarter is too large. What that means is that downward earnings revisions still have a long way to go.
Broking firm Motilal Oswal recently revised its earnings estimates downwards with the Sensex companies now estimated to grow earnings per share (EPS) by 8.6% in FY09 and 16.9% in FY10. If the contribution from Reliance Industries Ltd’ new businesses is left out, EPS growth for FY10 is estimated at just 6%. The brokerage expects the Sensex companies to post EPS growth rate of a mere 3.4%, compared with 16.9% in the first half. That fits in with the sudden and sharp deterioration of the economic climate since September.
But earnings revisions are a moving target. For instance, Motilal Oswal’s target for the total EPS of the Sensex companies for FY10 fell from Rs1,309 in June to Rs1,259 in September and now to Rs1,061.
Similarly, profit growth estimates for the Sensex companies for FY10 at Citigroup Inc. have been revised downwards from 17.09% in September to 11.8% currently. With FY09 Sensex EPS growth estimated at 12.9%, Citigroup expects next year to be worse than the current one. That fits in with macro estimates, the latest one being Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s projection that gross domestic product (GDP) growth would slow from 6.7% in FY09 to 5.8% in FY10. Incidentally, 5.8% was also the GDP growth rate in FY02, which means the September 2001 quarter earnings contraction may not be far off the mark as a guide to current growth.
Nandan Chakraborty, head of research at Enam Securities, expects earnings to bottom out by the middle of next year.
The Mint analysis also throws up other interesting comparisons. Sales growth, for instance, at 27.54% for all firms (ex-oil) in the September 2008 quarter was much higher than in the September 2001 quarter, when sales contracted by 0.37% year-on-year. Since last quarter’s sales growth is largely the result of very high inflation, that should come down dramatically in the next few months.
Growth in “other income” is much lower now than in 2001, perhaps reflecting the impact the current downturn has had on the financial sector.
Growth in interest charges (67.7%) in the September 2008 quarter has also been much higher than the 2% growth recorded in the September 2001 quarter. The growth in depreciation, too, has been much more currently than in 2001, perhaps the result of a lot of capital expenditure by firms.
Indeed, the growth in depreciation charges is more or less the same as in the September 1998 quarter, which seems to indicate that industry will soon face the same excess capacity situation that existed after the capex boom of the late 1990s. Net profits for all listed firms (ex-oil) contracted by 17.1% in the September 1998 quarter.
To cut a long story short, the message from comparing the September quarter numbers with those of previous downturns is that the worst is yet to come.
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Toronto (IANS): In one of the biggest breakthroughs in astronomy, Canadian, American and British astronomers have captured the images of another solar system for the first time.
Though more than 200 planets in other solar systems have been detected so far through indirect studies of their gravitational pull on their parent star, astronomers have failed to capture their images till this discovery.
Using powerful telescopes at the Mauna Kea Observatories in Hawaii, the astronomers captured the images of three huge planets orbiting around a sun known as HR8799.
Barely visible to the naked eye, this new sun is about 1.5 times the mass of our sun. It is estimated to be only 60 million years old, much younger compared to our sun which is 4.57 billion years old.
The three planets orbiting it are estimated to be about 10 times the mass of Jupiter.
The researchers, led by astronomer Christian Marois of the National Research Council Canada, used advanced image-processing techniques to detect the three faint planets against the bright glare of their sun, said a Toronto University release Thursday.
"It`s amazing to have a picture showing not one but three planets," said project collaborator Bruce Macintosh of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California.
"The discovery of the HR 8799 system (the new solar system) is a crucial step on the road to the ultimate imaging of another earth," he said.
Further, infrared observations have also shown evidence of a massive disk of cold dust orbiting the newly discovered sun - much like our solar system`s dust disk which is produced by dust from the comets of the Kuiper Belt located just beyond the orbit of Neptune.
"HR 8799`s dust disk stands out as one of the most massive in orbit around any star within 300 light years of earth," said co-author Ben Zuckerman of the University of California in Los Angeles.
From the glow or luminosities of the HR 8799 system, the astronomers have calculated that the three planets have masses between five and thirteen times that of Jupiter.
The giant planets orbit their star at roughly 25, 40 and 70 times the distance between the earth and the sun, making the HR 8799 solar system a scaled-up version of our solar system, the astronomers said.
"Detailed comparison with theoretical models confirms that all three planets possess complex atmospheres with dusty clouds partially trapping and re-radiating the escaping heat," said astronomer and research team member Travis Barman of Lowell Observatory in Arizona.
Calling it a truly amazing discovery, David Larcener of Toronto University said, "surely astronomers from all around the world will be very busy over the next few years to figure out the most intricate details of this fascinating system."
The findings have been published in the Nov 13 online edition of international weekly Science.
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Indian-American management expert Anjan Mukherjee has been roped in by US President-elect Barack Obama into his transition team, the
fourth person from the community to be part of the 15-member high-profile group.
Mukherjee, a Managing Director of Corporate Private Equity group at Blackstone, has been appointed as one of the team leads in Economics and International Trade.
His appointment has been the latest one as three other Indian-Americans - Sonal Shah, Preeta Bansal and Nicholas Rathod - have already been inducted into Obama`s team.
Mukherjee has been involved in the execution of a number of investments in a wide range of industries.
He has received a BA from Harvard University where he graduated magna cum laude as a Harry S. Truman Scholar and an MBA from Harvard Business school.
Before joining Blackstone, he worked with Thomas H. Lee Company and Morgan Stanley & Co.
He has also worked at the Department of Education (in the Fund for the Improvement of Postsecondary Education) as well as the Brookings Institution.
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Bush allays India`s concerns on `protectionist cocoon`
Washington, Nov 15 (PTI) In the face of India cautioning the West against protectionist policies to tide over global financial crisis, US President George W Bush today said world leaders have reaffirmed their faith in open markets and free trade.
"I am pleased that the leaders (of countries from 20 countries) reaffirmed the principles behind open markets and free trade," Bush said at the G20 Summit, allaying fears voiced by countries like India.
Ahead of the meeting, Finance Minister P Chidambaram who is accompanying Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for the meeting, has said, "The developed countries should not get into a protectionist cocoon in their anxiety to tide over the current crisis." Bush, who convened the meeting of heads of 20 nations to discuss steps to wriggle out of the financial upheaval, said, "One of the dangers during a crisis such as this is that people will start implementing protectionist policies." Besides Singh, British Premier Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Russian President Medvedev are among the world leaders participating in the one-day summit. PTI
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Job losses....
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc plans to shed about 10 percent of its global workforce, a person familiar with the matter said Friday, as the bank tries to return to profitability and faces mounting criticism of Chief Executive Vikram Pandit.
The cuts could result in a loss of roughly 35,000 jobs, based on the bank`s reported 352,000-person workforce as of Sept 30. The cuts will be on top of the 23,000 jobs Citigroup has already slashed this year.
Additional reductions would come from layoffs, the sale of units and attrition, said the person.
Citigroup spokesman Michael Hanretta declined to comment. Pandit in a memo said he will host a "town hall" meeting for employees on November 17 at 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT), at which he plans to discuss the bank`s plans, including "the money we spend."
Since replacing Charles Prince as chief executive in December, Pandit has made cost-cutting a top priority and has announced plans to shed $400 billion of assets.
He has, however, faced growing and sometimes withering criticism from investors and others for failing to implement a workable turnaround plan for New York-based Citigroup.
This week, the bank`s shares fell below $10 for the first time since Sanford "Sandy" Weill in 1998 created Citigroup from the merger of Travelers Group Inc with Citicorp.
The bank`s shares closed up 7 cents at $9.52 in New York Stock Exchange trading, making it one of only two components of the Dow Jones industrial average to gain on a day when U.S. stocks suffered broad declines. Earlier in the day, the stock dropped to $8.80 and has now lost more than two-thirds of its value from $29.44 at the beginning of the year.
Citigroup`s market value is only about $52 billion, barely twice the $25 billion of capital it received from the U.S. Treasury Department`s new bank bailout plan.
"The current strategy has been in place for more than a decade," said William Smith, chief executive of Smith Asset Management Inc in New York, which owns Citigroup stock. "I don`t know how many more quarters we have to go through this."
TOUGH ROAD AHEAD
Like many rivals, the second-largest U.S. bank by assets faces growing credit losses now that many economies worldwide appear to be in recession.
But Citigroup is also constrained from growing at home, and Wells Fargo & Co last month derailed its attempt to buy Wachovia Corp and its $418.8 billion of deposits.
Citigroup has lost $20.3 billion in the last year, analysts expect it to lose money this quarter, and some analysts believe it may not be profitable in 2009.
The bank was cobbled together principally by Weill, who ceded control to Prince in 2003. But analysts believe Citigroup never invested enough in technology or to make the bank`s disparate parts work well together.
And Citigroup`s geographic diversity, including operations in more than 100 countries, is by some measures now a negative, as customers in Brazil, India and Mexico -- like many in the United States -- find it harder to keep up with their bills.
Pandit on Thursday bought 750,000 Citigroup common shares and 100,000 preferred shares -- the first time he has disclosed using his own money to buy the bank`s stock. He joined Citigroup in 2007 when he sold his hedge fund, Old Lane Partners LP, to the bank for an estimated $800 million.
Citigroup has this week also tried to set aside reports of dissension among its directors with the performance of Pandit and the bank`s chairman, Sir Win Bischoff.
"The board of directors and management are operating as one team," lead director Richard Parsons, who is also chairman of Time Warner Inc, said in a memo late Thursday to employees. "We are confident that the direction our management team has set is the right direction."
Citigroup disclosed on Friday that Pandit acquired 750,000 of the bank`s common shares and 100,000 preferred shares on November 13.
