Look me up at www.joetom1958.blogspot.com

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STOP PRESS

Friends,

My honeymoon with this Messageboard will last for just another 11 days as I have decided to annull my marriage with MMB from 01 Sep 2008. It is with a heavy heart that I depart, mainly because MMB organzers feel that I am doing everything here for my sake. They do not know how much increased readership they get because of me and not even care to reply to my Posts addressed to the Moderators including PM's.

Some of you may still like to get my views on markets in due course also. Those who still want to get my guidance may visit my BLOG at www.joetom1958.blogspot.com where I will be updating the page during market hours as well.

Many of my wellwishers like kotakinvestments, Radhika, Uma, Cheema, Rajesh Rajpal etc have been asking me to start my own BLOG for some time now. Finally, it was all done by the push from Mr Rajesh Rajpal and the BLOG has been launched today. I am indeed grateful to Raj for his encouragement and efforts in achieving this.

Happy Investing!
Tom

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BUILD YOUR PORTFOLIO!

20 Aug 2008:
06:00 p.m: Market has behaved exactly as I predicted it would with least variations in targets. Only the lower target a little far. Actuals(Predicted):Open 14611(14655), Low 14584(14457), High 14746(14766), Close 14678(14692)

08:30 a.m. On Tuesday, market opened weak, hit the low and climbed to the highest point of the day at close. There was hardly any triggers for a flare up at the close with extremely weak global cues. I could predict almost exactly the Opening and low level, but the highest point was far to reach instead the closing was also well ahead of my target figure. Actuals(Predicted):Open 14518(14531), Low 14369(14385), High 14604(14821), Close 14544(14478).

Compared to the Asian and European peers, Indian markets performance for the day was excellent. US Markets continued their slide with more than expected Inflation figures for July and fall in Housing starts apart from other worries in financial sector. Govt may permit Reliance Industries to sell gas oil from its export oriented Refineries to local users. If this happens with tax exemptions, then Reliance will be a major beneficiary and the Industrial units starving for the fuel will also be benefitted. Due to this possibility, Reliance is expected to soar to higher levels. Strike by some of the Bank Unions on Wednesday is likely to have meagre effect on the markets. Rupee continued to fall against Dollar, closing at 43.62. Crude has inched up to 114.54/bbl may act as a dampener. However, in an oversold market, the way the indices galloped at last half an hour, we may expect some positive action from the market. If that won't happen today, just expect sideways market till it breaks out on either side. 14339 on lower side and 14642 on higher side if broken at closing level will give the immediate direction of the market. In all probability, we will be ignoring US cues for the day, but Crude price may be kept on watch. Crude September futures expiry today and that may be the only reason for crude going up yesterday. If that be, crude will resume its downward journey from tomorrow.

Sensex:

Supports: 14457-14339 Resistances: 14642-14741-14858

Open: 14655 Low: 14457 High: 14766 Close: 14692

Further buying by investors recommended if only closing is likely to be above 14642.

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19 Aug 2008:-It seems the markets behaved undecided and nervous. All my targets and levels were nowhere near. The closing at almost the lower end indicates correction to go on. European markets were flat but US markets were pulled down drastically by the Financial stocks. Unconfirmed negative reports from the financial counters attributed this fall. Oil cooling down further and dollar going stronger will help our markets however, the deep cuts in US will also have some say.

Supports: 14556-14467-14355 Resistances: 14825-14962

Open: 14531 Low: 14385 High: 14821 Close: 14478

Though I suggested earlier to buy balance 50% of investible funds at 14500 level for medium/long term, same may be restricted to 25% of the corpus. We will utilise balance 25% as and when we get a bullish signal which is above 14962 and unlikely to trigger today.

For Mr Balu (baluincorp): Thanks for your clarification. Appreciate your magnanimity to accept the feelings of other boarders.
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18 Aug 2008:- (I will not be available on Messenger during trading hours today. Wish you all the very best). The Inflation has caused more worries than the sub-prime. The main culprit was surge in crude price, having hit a high of 147. We Indians have to pay a big price, if the Oil prices rule high as we are net importers of crude.However, against all TA predictions Crude has come down to 111.34 USD/bbl yesterday before closing at 113.77 down 1.24 USD/bbl. If Crude remains within 100-125 range, inflation in India will come down to single digit within 3-6 months. Our economy is comparatively ruling better than our peers and Crude alone can give it a shot in the arm. In coming months, surplus earnings from 6th Pay Commission will be channelled into various forms of investments and consumer markets are bound to benefit a lot. Overall, next lap up, we will be targetting 17500 Sensex. Far East and Asian markets were mixed whereas US markets closed modestly positive considering 2 sessions together. But for the fall in Energy stocks due to fall in Crude, US indices would have closed substantiall higher. US Dollar has shot up to 110.54 against Yen and 43.04 against Rupee, will augur well for Indian IT companies. Commodity prices are down which will along with Oil bring down inflation world over. More of Pension & PF funds will be allowed by Govt to enter the Stock Markets. New SEBI norms for fund raising will be welcomed both by investors and companies. Likely resignation by Prez Musharraff will be a positive news indirectly.

Correction in our markets seems to be over. In all probability, the low of 14 Aug, 14687 will sustain for the time being. It is time for us to start building up our Portfolio for Medium to Long Term. 50% of investible funds be deployed at current levels and balance be made available in case we fall to about 14500 or if we break above 15074.

Supports:14596-14469 Resistances: 14815-14942-15074

Open:14835 Low:14680 High:15040 Close:14930

Friends, please let me know if I should discontinue my guesstimates of Open/Low/High/Close Target figures? I do not want anyone being misguided by giving too much faith on these figures and incurring losses if I am off the target. Instead, Supports and Resistances will be there and you are free to guess. Opinions welcome! Please visit this page again for further updates.

Message from HLN:
Dear Joetom,

In this long week-end I have tried to
analyse the market very carefully. I see
no sign of Nifty crossing 4540, which is
a NECKLINE of Head and Shoulders formation.
This is very crucial point. Another such
crucial point is 4375 which is also a
neck-line of the preceding wave.

Market can enter into new bull phase only
Nifty sustains above 4540 for two days. If
it sustains below 4375, then it will test
its previous low of 3790 and then fall
further to bottom out in the range of
3400-3600.

I will post a detailed message on how to
estimate the time frame on the markets.
I will invite other technical analysts
to share their skills on this message and
also on the time scale evalution.

Thanks

SURESH MITTAL

My Reply to HLN: I fully endorse your view "Market will go in the direction whichever side it breaks the range 4375-4540 and sustains for more than 2 days." If it so happens that the break-out is downward, then possibility of testing 3790 also exists. However, unless 3790 is broken and sustained for at least two days, next downward target is obviously not possible at all" These are certainly technical views. In practice, the fundamentals have enough reasons to see that the technicals will not break 4375 downward at all, leave alone testing 3790 level. During the week, we will break above 4545 to seek the next higher target. Hope, you will enlighten the Boarders and me as to what will be the next higher target in such a scenario. Thank you in advance! Tom

NB: I have vowed not to post any messages till MMB withdraws previlege of Guest Id's to post messages, hence replying here. Today, I will be writing to Moderator that if Guest's right to post messages are not withdrawn by 31 August, I will stop updating my Home Page as well. Choice is their's!

My message to The MMB Moderator:
Dear Moderator,

You may have noticed that I have stopped posting messages on MMB, since you are not in a mood to accept my request to stop Guest Id's posting any messages. You did not even show the courtesy to reply to me.

In view of the above, I have decided to stop updating my Home Page with effect from 01 Sept, if my request to withdraw message posting rights to Guest Id's not withdrawn by 31 August.

Thanks & best regards,
Capt. Tom Joseph.
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15 Aug 2008:I wish all my friends "A VERY HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY!

Message from S. BALU (Boarder- baluincorp)- dear Mr Joetom I visit your homepage regularly. i find most of your predictions are just guesswork. I am waiting for your report on today\\`s trade at your homepage as to why your predic;tions are so much away from the reality. (sensex opening, low, ;high and close are all substantially wrong) Regards S.Balu...

My Reply to baluincorp: "Dear Mr Balu, Given below is my report about my prediction of 14 Aug. I have decided not to post any messages till such time that previlege is withdrawn from Guest Id's, hence replying here. Tell me, what makes you think that I can be right 100%? I have never guarateed so. Please read what I have written about myself on top of this page. I have stated very clearly that intuition plays a major part in my assessment of market. Intuition is nothing but Guessing. And, stock market trading is nothing but a guessing game. Whoever guess right makes money. I try to be 60% right. If I achieve that score, I am happy. And, let me say very categorically: How can anybody demand accurate predictions from me, why, none can even demand that I continue writing. I am not paid by any of you, nor by this website. I am just doing a service to those who need it. This is my personal page and only those who likes to visit will do so. You say that you are regular visitor of my page. You might have assessed me better than many and that may have prompted you to visit my page. If you feel someone is better than me, by all means you should follow him, even if I insist, I know that you won't listen to me. Why do you follow just the figures? If you have followed my instructions, you could have made lots of money in last one month. I admit that I flopped in Jan/Feb, but I believe that I am on right track now. Since yesterday, I was giving calls to book profits. And today at lower levels, below 14850 I have asked my online friends to start buying slowly. Most of us are in profits. Even if some who bought shares late and could not sell in last 2 days, may see book-losses, but will recoup within a week. The day's figures were well within my predicted levels till 3 pm and few guys even congratulated me online saying that my close figure too will be met. But, negative news at the end flopped all. Please remember, my report was done last night with minor editing this morning. I do not edit it during market hours when I advise my friends online. Thanks for your comments. Brgds, Tom

Postmortem-14 Aug:Market opened at precisely what I predicted, after making a high of 15033 receded to find support at 14760 for most of the day's trade, very close to the low predicted by me and made a good advance to 14915, however panic selling in last half an hour on Inflation news crashed the index down to 14687 prior to closing a bit higher and 150 points below my target. I had given 3 support levels and two resistance levels of which, Index broke S1 and S2 whereas it could not break above R1. Actual figures with my predicted figures in brackets are:- Open: 15018 (15005) Low: 14687 (14791) High: 15033 (15198) Close: 14724 (14875)

I have written to Balu as above. It is matter of concern as to why only my detractors are active. Why none of those having faith in me not commented against his remarks. Number of hits I am getting shows that many are reading my Home Page which is updated on a day-to-day basis. It is alarming to note that Boarders whose home page were not visited by as many Boarders and who have not scribbled anything in their home page nor posted any messages have got more Trackers than me in last one week. New look MMB is so great!

14 Aug 2008 (Last edited at 9.10 a.m):- So what if Rathore missed the bull's eye in China, be happy that I have hit bull's eye at Dalal Street. Low/High/Close were predicted 15031/15289/15123 and actual 15013/15273/15093, difference of just 16 to 30 points only. However, I am not very happy as I gave sell call a bit pre-maturely, particularly in Reliance. Anyways, the damage done will be recouped tomorrow. The correction has set in. Let us see the recent legs made by Sensex. From the low of 12515 we rose to 15130 (2615 points rise), fell to 13727 (1403 points fall), rose again to 15580 (1853 points rise) and now receding. Assuming half to two-third correction, we have to correct about 1000 to 1240 points from the recent high, thus arriving at 14340 to 14580. Let me take the figure 14356 for all practical purposes. So, we may have about 637 points more correction pending. This may happen in just one day or in about 3-4 days.

As mentioned by me already, SEBI meeting was just a non-event. Whoever has expected relaxation of P-Note transactions will be disappointed. Oil has taken a U-turn, up 3.3 USD/bbl at 116.31 due to reports of lower inventory. Euro/Asian markets have bled a lot. India was almost an exception. After severe beating in last few sessions, US continues to be down however not so badly, thanks to Energy and material sectors rallying on the back of Crude spiking. Indian Markets will also take a breather, a healthy correction, I would say. 6th Pay Commission Report to be cleared by Cabinet today, will be a drag on the market.

Those holding Pivotals may book profits, particularly Bank stocks are expected to weaken further. We entered at the lows in July and at current level we are almost up 2500 Sensex points. I am not bearish, but we are sure to get a chance to buy at lower levels. Yesterday, I said Reliance and Unitech will swim against the tide. They were really up most of the session, however took a turn at the fag end of the session, closing narrowly down. In fact Reliance has maintained the Sensex. It will be safer to book profits in Reliance and wait for an opportune time to enter again. Unitech may be held on. Praj Industries may be bought in 185 range. RPG Life Science may be added if available at or below 37. Sensex figures:-

Supports:14980-14866-14606 Resistances:15126-15240

Open:15005 Low:14791 High:15198 Close:14875

Warning:All longs are to be sold off. However, a close above 15203 will signal end of correction and longs may be created again. A close below 15099 will confirm ongoing correction.

A recap of what I wrote on 16 July:- "Whoever investing now may hold on for 3-6 months time. Market may go anywhere, but will be higher 20-25% within 6 months time." We have achieved an appreciation of more than 20% in less than a month. What more can you expect from any source of investment?

13 Aug 2008:- We have had day which was constantly under selling pressure from the word go, except for a couple of attempts by bulls to recoup part losses. Opening was exactly as I predicted, however, lower range was broken down and Sensex came 30 points short of the Stop-loss trigger suggested by me. A correction at this juncture is very healthy and this will augur well for the strength of the market in next few days. I do not think that this correction will last long. Two reasons contributed to this. IIP numbers being lower on an YOY basis and fear of the word "P-Notes" among market men. IIP numbers were expected to be lower anyway and the figure was exactly what was expected by the market, but one should note that it was also better than the previous month. IIP figures for May was revised upward from 3.8 to 4.1 which was also not considered by the market. P-Notes controversy has beaten down the market last October. These proposals are going to be reviewed now. There is no reason why the marketmen be apprehensive about it. Worst that can come is to maintain status-quo. Russia has declared ceasefire with Georgia and Oil has cooled further to USD 113/bbl. Adding another 39 stocks in F&O trading from 21 Aug will be welcomed by marketmen. Asian and Euro markets closed down. US Markets were also trading in negative most of the day, DOW being the worst performer losing 1.40 p%. Our markets will open lower, do some dilly-dallying initially and will close with a caution, within 50 points on either side of yesterday's close, unless some news trickle in positive or negative. This will end the correction and market will go up Thursday morning, if not towards the close today. My friends who followed my instructions and sold off at higher levels yesterday, if not already covered the positions may do so today at lower levels. Any further dips are to be considered as opportunities. Oil falling to lower levels will fuel our markets irrespective of other World markets.

Recommendation: BUY RPG Life Science: 37 Target 60 in less than 6 months. Reliance and Unitech are expected to surge ahead against the general market which will be in correction mode.

Supports: 15031-14851 Resistances: 15306-15486

Open: 15100 Low: 15031 High: 15289 Close: 15123

Warning: Sell off all positions if a close below 15030 is likely. However, the correction will be extremely short-lived and hence be prepared to buy back at short notice.

12 Aug 2008:- What a cool day! All scrips recommended by me have shown sudden spurts. Sensex opened,traded and closed well within acceptable limits set by me. It was all within a narrow range of just 153 points, still closing with a whopping 336 points. Sensex has left yet another unfilled gap between previous day's high and today's low apart from consecutively closing higher for the 5th day. Do you still want to call it a Bear Rally? Let us see what is in store for us ahead. Oil continues to tumble down despite apprehensions about supply worries from Caspian Sea due to Georgia/Russia conflict. It had gone below 113 USD/bbl however pared the mega-loss to settle 75 cents lower. Euro markets have closed well in green. DOw after trading in negative zone in the morning trades have shot up well above the immediate resisance zone at 11800 but closed the day just below that level. We have the IIP numbers being awaited today, may not be comparable at all with YOY figures, however expected better than previous month. For Tuesday:-

Supports:15464-15360-15235 Resistances:15561-15770

Open:15566 Low:15408 High:15714 Close:15599

Warning: All longs may be closed out if closing likely below 15099. Buying may be restricted to select stocks only. Those who are in reasonably good profits may book profits partially or even fully during the day's high.

Recommendation: BUY PRAJ INDUSTRY - 190, Target 225, support 185-174/Stop-loss 174

11 Aug:-The bull run which commenced 2nd week of July is still intact, whether it is a bear rally or not will be confirmed if only the Sensex rally above 17800. So let the bears continue singing their songs about the Bear Rally. Meanwhile those of my friends who entered this run at 3800-3950 range can enjoy the ride. Those who have invested then, need to look at the daily warning I give at the foot of my daily message, that's all. We will book profits at Sensex 16K, 17K, 22K or 25K depending on that alone. Even if that gives a wrong signal, still ok as we might have earned enough by then. For eg: If we were to break below 14790 today and if we were to sell, we might have only booked 2000 points gain in Sensex (approximately). Just be a disciplined investor or trader and go on to make more and more profits! Cheers!

We have lots to cheer! Major reason being Oil crashing down to USD 115/bbl. Dollar is going stronger supporting the IT stocks. US Markets have rejoiced and is about to break out of bearish spell. Far East markets will join in the party when the new week begins. For Monday:-

Supports: 15095-14961-14754 Ressitances: 15302-15436-15777

Open: 15355 Low: 15195 High: 15605 Close: 15445

Reliance, RCom, Unitech are almost at their bottom and not appreciated much in this rally. These stocks are bound to catch fire soon. Loss will be limited but profits will be very high......BUY....

Those who are yet to enter in buying may do so on dips, however, to be aware of the stop-losses well. Those who have bought Satyam, RPL, Unitech, RCom, Reliance, Tata Steel etc against my calls may hold on till any bearish indications are there. However, they may trade with their positions, by partially booking profits at the day's high and cover up on dips. No need to chase, if cannot be covered without loss, leave it. Please come back to this page for further updates on Sunday/before market hours on Monday.

Warning:- Sell all positions if Sensex close could be below 14924.

08:30 a.m.:- Am afraid, we may not witness the bullish euphoria as expected due to the serial Bomb blasts in China depressing Asian Markets along with Crude inching up by a USD over 116/bbl. Please note the Sensex figures are adjusted. Hereafter, I will be interacting online with only those who are trading on my advice.

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09/10 July:-Just a quick word...We may expect some political play in the market during the coming week.... Please bear in mind that withdrawal of support by Left Front is imminent...They have no way otherwise to save their face...This may happen on Monday.....Market will react to that...However, a wise investor may buy at the bottoms to make a quick buck when political announcements from others like, SP, RLD and Trinamool Congress may be there in a couple of days....UPA Govt will survive, either by a simple majority or by a couple of Left front legislators themselves absenting from the Confidence Vote...Notwithstanding the above, if SP turns aggressive against the UPA, PM may even resign. If that be, that event will take the markets to the bottom for 2008, which may be 11850-11950. As of now, it seems unlikely as SP is going to back UPA....Decide your strategies keeping these in mind....Thanks!

11 July:- As suggested by me, the market bottomed out as a prelude to the Left's act of withdrawing support to UPA Govt. That was the right time to buy for immediate gains. Now, we may see some upside, as UPA Govt will certainly survive the Confidence Vote. Be prepared to book profits as soon as the best of good news is out! As of today, it is better to remain long.

13 Jul 2008:- After showing some bullish moves, market has come down again to confuse the investors. As of now, I feel we won't be seeing any worse levels than we saw in recent times. In all probability, markets will open on Monday with a gap down and stabilise subsequently. Nifty 3950 and below will be the buying opportunity for those with cash. It would be a good startegy to invest 50% of the availble funds at 3950 level and balance at 3800-3850 level. We are sure to see an upside of 25-30% from current levels within next 4-6 months. I would expect a bounce from a low of about 3930-3950 on Monday as the markets are already oversold and the favourable political news will be enough to give the jerk up.

16 jul 2008:- My update of 13 July still holds good. You might have noticed that on Monday, Nifty did open with a gap down and stabilised subsequently. Even in yesterday's drastic fall, we have not broken down below the level suggested by me. if only we close below 3800, possibility of visiting 3600 is there. However, I am ruling out such an eventuality. Please see the attitude of Left Front, Mr Mukherjee not resigning his post as Speaker indicates shape of things to come. UPA Govt will survive the Confidence vote and that will save the market from rotting. Whoever investing now may hold on for 3-6 months time. Market may go anywhere, but will be higher 20-25% within 6 months time.

I am in Reliance Field off Kakinada (Krishna Godavari Basin), buzzing with activity. production expected to commence, may be mid-August. Watch the Reliance counters in next few days which will be enough to sustain the indices. Weather is no good and the roll and pitch of the vessel makes internet connectivity a big trouble apart from myself having to get tied up on Bridge. Will update in general, not exactly on day-to-day basis.

17 Jul 2008:- Hope, all my friends are fully invested as on date as we have seen 3800-3850 range yesterday. Now, hold tight, till we see a 25% appreciation. Those with short term view may sell with 10% appreciation.

18 Jul 2008:- The rally which has just initiated will continue today as well. 13035 will be a level to support today, if broken will get strong support at 12921. There may be a resistance at 13227 close to which Sensex may open and a high of 13341 is distinctly possible. Hold on to your recent purchases so long as a close below 12921 is not possible.

19 July 2008: 2200 hrs:- The expectations for the day was overtaken and taken much beyond. This indicates that the Markets are in a bull grip, even if temporarily. It may be due to the heavily oversold state as well.It is also to be noted that US Markets may not have much effects on ours or other international markets in days to come. Let it be so, we will see an extremely choppy day on Monday. hold your breath...I will update my home page during the week-end.

21 Jul 2008:- Sensex will open up with a gap, however will thereafter swing on either side depending on news unveiling for and against the UPA govt. Rather, Mp's defecting and crossing over on either side will decide the fate of the market today. hence, any guess on closing could be hazardous. But, that is what I am gonna do here...

Open: 13848 High: 14062 Low: 13471 Close: your guess....If you really want me to open up my mind, the high could even be 14653, over a 1000 points up and close could be about 14250....however, I would like to be more austere....but poor joetom who could not trade in the market for almost two weeks now.... cheers and good luck!

22 jul 2008:- I made small mess of my enthusiasm. I was under the impression that the Trust Vote will take place this evening. Also, while computing figures for the day, excess rise of friday was not deducted. Anyways, figures are there, given above, which stands for the Trust vote results...minor variation....Wednesday only will see the real charm with a target of 14684, subject to UPA win.... for 22nd, the trend will remain same as of today. However, surprises can be there as news flows in... Days open: 13959 Low: 13770 high: 14366 Close: 14120 ---

PM 22 July:- I feel my figures for today's market were more accurate, at least the low and closing tallied well within a stone throw distance. But, let me tell you, the accuracy of the figures do not mean much, the direction of the trend is paramount. I am very happy that I could spot exactly the turnaround point of this rally, whether you call it a bear market rally or a turnaround. Left withdrawing support was identified as the last hit to bulls and it was. On 13 July, I have asked my friends to invest 50% at 3900-3950 and balance at 3800-3850. And we had a turnaround at 3800 dot. I advised short termers to book 10% profits which may be tomorrow or day after. Please do that. I am sure, market will go up further, as my expectation is about 25% above 3800, that is 4750 Nifty where we have to make a re-assessment of situations. those who can hold till then may do so. I will not dare to give any long term predictions, but can update on day-to-day basis.

23 Jul 2008: Nothing much to talk about except that those who were daring to hold on will make some extra bucks today. Sensex will open with a wide gap up and close distinctly in green. After the Red Army has withdrawn support to the UPA, there is not much reason why the market may not see some green too.

Open: 14410 Low: 14274 High: 14684 Close: 14494

Sensex is hovering around the higher level predicted by me, that is 14684. Now that it has stabilised at these levels, surely some more upside for the day can be expected...say 14852 on the higher side.

1.45 p.m: Sensex at 14835....profit booking by day traders and partial booking by short termers advised.

24 July 2008 :- Markets were much more bullish than I could imagine. Bears who thought that every day is Sunday, had it. They really bled a lot, but still not over. Short covering is still not completed. However, one may keep a target and be satisfied when that is reached. So, for today, I will advise traders to book profits at higher levels and attempt to maintain their longs at the end of trading. Investors may hold on till signs of weakness erupts.

I feel the momentum is a bit more than what we perceived earlier and it may even go even beyond 16000. (My call of 25% appreciation is already there, in about 2 weeks instead of my expected 4-6 months.) I will put it as follows:-

We saw a high of 20873 and a low of 12575 at closing, a fall of 8298 points. To confirm that this is a bear market rally, we should not close above 18110, that is rise of two-third of the fall. Another point to reach is previous immediate top, that is about 17600, which will give a double top and either of this is more probable and realistic to the current scenario without making the bear lobby unhappy. I have some hopes for the bulls too. If my memory is right, the last bull-run started at 8000 or even below and lasted till 20873, a rise of about 12600 pointsor even more. Assuming this a major bull market correction,two-third correction would bring the market down to about 11973. Will re-assess in due course. For today:-

Supports: 14705-14842 Resistances: 15080-15217-15455

Open: 15080 Low: 14705 High: 15217 Close: 15045

25 Jul 2008:- Expecting consolidation. Buying recommended closer to 14500 level. Supports: 14547-14418-14316 Resistances:15069-15215-15360

Open: 14690 High: 15160 Low: 14512 Close: 14760

26 Jul 2008: The expected consolidation has turned out to be a steep correction, thanks to a strong sell off in Reliance followed by the ripples caused by the Bomb blasts. Anyways, not all love is lost for the bulls to come back. From 12576, Sensex went up about 2400 points and now a one-third fall will bring us to 14153 and a two-third correction can bring us lower to 13364 on closing basis. That could be the worst case. In normal case, today market would have closed above 14418 and that would have invited a good surge on Monday to continue the bull-run. Now that it has been pruned, we may see Sensex bouncing from 14050-14150 level on Monday/Tuesday, more so as FII's will be interested more.

Market has already discounted the worst case scenario related to sub-prime, high Oil Price, high inflation and the most feared political fall-out. Now that we have heard the worst of news, it is only bound to look up, not down. Take it granted from me, I will challenge every one on this board, "Market will not come to 2950 Nifty in its life, but it will certainly close above 4500 bfore 31 August 2008, rather much before."

For Monday:- Open: 14105 High: 14456 Low: 14050 Close: 14315. A close below 14050, if happens, possibility of going further down to 13364 exists which may please be noted.

29 Jul 2008:- Market is lack-lustre and sideways. It can be pushed either side by a small push. We have already had one-third the market correction to the recent surge from 12515 to 15130 at 14259. If two-third correction is to end it will be 13387 and half the correction will be at 13822. If we go below 13387, then it will be confirmed that the recent rally was bear rally. For Tuesday, international markets will have a bearing:-

Open: 14205 High: 14360 Low: 14027 Close: 14138

1055 hrs: Sensex at 14103 level, 14027 low has already touched. 14050-14100 may be regarded as fresh level for buying. Closing could be better than my predicted level by 100-150 points, however it depends on what RBI has in its mind. Intra-day buying recommended now.

12.15 pm: Market has over reacted to the RBI news. Sensex now at 13819, almost 200 points lower than the lowest expected. Ideal time to buy your choice Bank scrips like HDFC and ICICI bank, Reliance etc.

30 Jul 2008:- Whatever is to happen, will happen! I went wrong in my estimation about RBI Credit Policy effect on the Markets. yet not clear, why no positive effects even after leaving the bank rates un-touched. 25 bps increase across the board was expected. May be, bulls have been taken for a ride and the positive effects will trickle in later. Sensex has completed retracing about half the rise from the recent bottom. Bulls can watch 3 important levels now. Sensex must not break 1)Tuesday's low of 13727. 2)two third correction level at 13387 and 3)recent low at 12515. Getting support at any of these levels and a subsequent rise will signal that the bear market has ended. Then, no question of Nifty 3600 or 2950 or 1200 or 0....lol...Even to go down to these levels we need some fresh strong bearish news. It is like pressurising a gas or liquid in a strong container. How far can you pressurise it? At certain level, any external pressure will not have any effect on it other than to break the container itself. Whereas, any mild positive news can give a much larger upward effect in our markets at current juncture. For Wednesday, other than expiry fever on some stocks, short covering will be evident. Those doubting Thomases, waiting on the wings, if they expect that they can catch the rock-bottom, it may neevr materialise and you will end up buying much higher. A prudent investor must build up his Portfolio slowly and steadily now, whenever there is a dip. For Wednesday:-

Supports: 13727-13629 Resistances: 14142-14395 Open: 14120 High: 14375 Low: 14027 Close: 14215

31 July 2008:- It was an excellent day for the markets, particularly those who have taken long positions on my advice, mainly, Bank Stocks, Tata Steel and Reliance. Sensex opened at almost the day's low and maintained its uptrend throughout the session with hardly any intra-day reaction and ending the day by erasing almost entire loss the previous day. this indicates that the reaction on RBI Credit Policy was stage-managed by the bears, taking advantage of the nervous investor. Today being expiry day, alternate bouts of buying and selling can be expected, however ending on a bullish note., notwithstanding the fact that Oil is looking up. Market is bound to flare up on Friday. Profit booking in Airline stocks may be witnessed today.(I will be travelling today, hence may not be feasible to update my Home page. However, I will try.

Supports: 14203-14144-14086 Resistances: 14405-14521

Open: 14375 High: 14518 Low: 14195 Close: 14459

01 Aug 2008:- Opening and lower level were almost correct but High and Close Level predicted differed almost a 100 points. However, consolation is that the market has closed at almost the day's high. If Banks increasing the Dposit/lending rates may not be a good news for borrowers apart from ordinary investor gets more attracted to Banking deposits as an avenue of investment, Banking stocks will benefit immensely. On Positive side, inflation is almost under control and Oil has cooled down a bit. US markets are showing divergence again but this will not be a cause for holding our markets. Today being the first day of August expiry, we may see some smart moves, albeit selling pressure in certain counters. The expected flare up across the board is ruled out. Tata Steel, despite good numbers may see profit booking at higher levels. IT sector will find favour. Reliance, Unitech and ICICI Bank may be picked up during the day's lower levels.

Supports:- 14296-14222-14156 Resistance:- 14429-14555

Open: 14265 High: 14489 Low: 14178 Close:14299

1345 hrs: Though I gave a closing figure in negative zone, latest news on Spectrum allocation and the consequent effects will maintain the market momentum forward. Anticipating a close above 14575.

04 Aug 2008:- The snake has already covered his shorts and given a call to 15500. What happened to his panicky call to sub-8000 Sensex? What else is required to prove that he was creating panic among investors when the market was weak. Now, soon after he sell his longs and go short, we will hear that panicky call again. Watch Out!

Sensex has closed in a super bullish mode at day's high. As already hinted by me, we are totally ignoring the world markets and expected to forge ahead to the recent high of 15130, probably during this week itself. If closed above that level, Sensex is expected to target previous high of 17502. May be, I am asking for too much, but this is very much possible, slowly and steadily, with occasional profit booking. For Monday:-

Supports: 14233-14457 Resistances: 14882-15130

Open:14685 Low: 14457 High: 14847 Close: 14737

10.30 am: At current levels, I will buy:-

Maruti: 573
RCom:443
Reliance:2263

05 Aug 2008:- It was an extremely choppy market. The swings on either side was so sharp and frequent that a close on either side was possible. Though my closing prediction was far from being correct, the profit booking in Index heavy scrips augur well for the coming sessions. In fact market depth was distinctly positive, AD Ratio being 5:2, indicating bullish undercurrents. Western markets will have hardly any effect on us, more so, since the Oil is falling at a quicker pace, likely to stabilise 100-110 level. US markets particularly DOW closing in red will be disregarded as fall in Oil prices have crashed the Energy Stocks which have much weightage in DOW. Warning:- For Tuesday, a close below 14275 may be considered as end of this pull back and all longs may be closed:-

Supports: 14531-14479-14275 Resistances: 14701-14825-15047

Open: 14605 Low: 14479 High: 14825 Close: 14779

Maruti(572), ACC (585), RCom (438), Reliance (2242)and Unitech (168) may be picked up for 5-10% appreciation during this month.

06 Aug 2008:-Once bitten, twice shy! I was a bit nervous, hence called for profit booking pre-maturely in Unitech, ACC and Maruti. The market was not at all indicating any push after it travelled to the negative territory where it remained for good part of the trading time. There was no particular reason for a push forward other than whatever we had in the morning. Far East markets closing deeper in red was also there to support a negative closing. However, as I mentioned, all the negatives have been trashed and the indices travelled up so quickly that before even you could say "Jack Robinson", the indices peaked and the market was closed. This happenened despite blood bath across the global markets. For the time being, all dooms-spellers are quiet. This has trapped many of our till recent hard-core bulls who turned bears after seeing the market continuously falling to unbelievably low levels, along with perpetual bears. As for Wednesday, all markets abroad will be in green and we won't be an exception. Oil continues to fall as was opined by me. We have traded and closed above the very recent high and close of 23 July,thus clearing the track to 17735 as the next target which may be achieved before October expiry, may be even much earlier. Among the counters suggested by me, only RCom and Reliance deserves further buying. As on date, my friends who bought on my suggestion at 3800-3950 range of Nifty during mid-July are standing on a profit of 14-18%, in just 2-3 weeks. 25% appreciation is what I expected in 3 months and I am sure, that will be met.

Supports: 14826-14732-14516 Resistances: 15122-15284-15513

Open: 15169 Low: 14921 High: 15345 Close: 15215

Warning: In case of any negative developments, all longs to be sold off below 14438

8.30 am: I do not expect the sort of euphoria to take the sensex up by 1000 points. We have already gone up about 3% yeasterday when the global markets were down. When the negatives get disregarded and the small positives and no news are taking the markets up leaps & bounds, that shows that we are almost at the bottom and there is hardly any room to go down. An intra-day high above 15130 will confirm the current rally to sustain, albeit with minor corrections.

This rally will sustain, if we have occasional corrections. The correction will look like a steep fall, if we do not get intra-day and occasional corrections in coming days too, like we had in the recent past. (12515-15130-13727-....?). Fundamentals have not changed much in last one year, still we have seen a very higher high and a too lower low. This will happen due to speculative elements.

Whatever said and done, there is nothing wrong in your booking occasional profits. You may book profits at or above 15250 today and certainly you will get another oportunity to buy back in due course.

Buy Reliance and RCom

4 p.m.: Figures are not matching, however trend was exactly what was foreseen by me. I am glad that most of my friends made some good money today. Thank you all for acknowledging the same. I am sorry, I could not reply to each one during trading time. Those who have sold against my calls today may buy tomorrow, if not already bought before closing.

07 Aug 2008:- Sensex opened with a wide gap up, well above my expectations, went higher than what I thought, howeever, ended almost at the day's low. Points to be noted:- i) It was 3rd day consecutively, we have had higher tops and higher bottoms. ii) This day, we have maintained an unfilled gap up. iii)Despite closing at the lower end, it is higher than the highest point reached on previous day. Hence, my view for 07 Aug, even if US markets are closing flat or negative, we will resume our uptrend with much more vigour. Whether the targets to be achieved or not, today's close will definitely be a hint at how the markets will be shaped in the near term. I am bullish for an absolute short term. Will let you know when I change my view.

Supports:- 15036-14932-14862 Resistances:-15249-15319-15565

Open: 15195 Low: 14932 High: 15469 Close: 15264

Warning: All long positions to be liquidated if Sensex breaks below 14862

08 Aug 2008:- It was really a day of opportunities, however, being a little over confident, me and my online friends have contended with meagre profits for the day. However, better days are gonna be here again! Except for the opening minutes, the Sensex remained above 15000 mark through the entire session. Having made a lower top and lower bottom is a cause for concern, but having closed higher for the day mitigates that. Europe and US markets are mixed as of now, DOW almost 1% down. Dollar is on an upswing. Oil had jumped almost 3 dollars above 121/bbl at one point of time on the news that one of the pipelines burst, but reversed and fallen back to about 118/bbl. US has given good news on existing Home sales front, however jobless claims negated the same. Negative reports from Wal Mart and AIG too caused the DOW to sink. Let it be so, we will find our our own levels. Inflation figures were as per expectations marginally higher at 12.01. On Thursday, during market hours, rumours were adrift that inflation will be 12.5 which caused some panic. Political situation in Pakistan is something to be watched more than what DOW is doing. It is a cause for concern. But we will tide over it easily. If US markets start lower and end higher, our markets start higher and end lower. We may find a break tomorrow. (There is a street talk that Amar Singh may get the Communication Ministry, if true, RCom will be the greatest beneficiary. But, please do not take position based on this rumour. You can buy now, as the scrip is worth the price now). Unitech at 180 is a stock that may gallop up for the day. For Friday:-

Supports:-14970-14791 Resistances: 15277-15427

Open: 15025 Low: 14949 High: 15277 Close: 15130

Warning: All long positions to be liquidated if Sensex likely to close below 14790. A gap down opening may be considered as an opportunity to buy.

Heartening to note that the markets behaved exactly as was suggested by me, High & Low were about 50 points and Close about 40 points off my prediction. More happy as those who stay-put with my calls gained a lot today. We bought at Sensex 14950 level, sold off partly above 15200. Look forward to an excellent week.

You can catch me at www.joetom1958.blogspot.com