Market Outlook - Short Term

Will Nifty fall below 2500 by end of the November series?

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger

Rupee to hit 54-55/$ in 6 months: MS

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Chetan Ahya, MD, Morgan Stanley feels the G-20 meet outcome was positively surprising. Ahya feels the dollar could continue to gain strength going forward and expects the rupee to hit 54-55 to a dollar level in the next six months. Ahya sees further downside risks to the revised growth estimates and expects the global GDP growth to be at 1.7%.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : Robin Swami

Even fundamental investors can accumulate Tata Tele. We expect lot of positive developments. The stock is now like a Gold STandard. No downside risk seen at current levels!

Mkts fall on fresh selling; all sectoral indices in red

Posted by : MMB Messenger

The markets are witnessing fresh waves of selling again after showing a bit of recovery from the day`s lows. Technology, banking, telecom, power, metal, and capital goods are down over 4%. The Nifty is hovering around 2,700 while the Sensex is struggling at 9,000. Midcap and smallcap stocks are trading in the red.

Will Nifty fall below 2500 by end of the November series?

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger

This week to decide near-term course of mkts

Posted by : Udayan Mukherjee

Source : CNBC-TV18

The markets have seen another dose of bad news. The backdrop for the markets` opening looks sticky. We are on the backfoot straightaway. This week may be important as a decider for the near-term (direction) for the markets. The global markets may either bottom out and then bounce back or, the October levels may break down. It could go either ways, but by Friday, the markets should get some answers (about the course of the markets).

The broader market didn’t seem to go anywhere in trade yesterday?

No, it did not look good. You did not come away yesterday feeling good about the market despite the Nifty getting flat, so that’s it from a local perspective.

Last week we were talking about how this week is very important in being probably a decider for the near-term trend for the market which has been weak but it has not broken down completely below October lows, but I do think that over the next four days of trading for this week you will find a direction.

One of two things will happen either will the global markets will go close to the lows and then bounce back which looks like the lower probability event right now or the October lows will break and we will start another big leg down for the market but by Friday you will get an answer.

The market will not be in a small range or a tight range for much longer; there is just too much happening around us, so either we break down which looks fairly likely. If it does not then you will probably have a counter trend rally from the October lows. Surprising things happen in the market, so don’t rule it out. But one of these two possibilities and the way it is going it is probably 75% in favour of break down and 25% in favour of a pullback from the October lows but by this weekend, you will know.

On the Finance Ministers comments:

One is encouraged, to hear the voices of confidence from the Finance Minister, I hope he is right that maybe we will bounce back next year and this year too growth led by agriculture not be too bad after all but just a couple of small observations on the data that he was pointing out; one of course is that the lowest estimate for this year’s gross domestic product (GDP) is 7% that may have been true a month back but the lowest estimate now is 5.8% for this year, Citigroup too is at 6.8% and there are whole host of investment banks – who are at 5.8%, 6.3% for this year leave alone next year where the predictions are far more southward.

On the issue of investment demand and that Credit Manager’s Index (CMI) article, I will not go into the details of that because there is a lot of evidence to suggest that investment is actually slowing down much more sharply and on CMI this is the think tank which till a few weeks back had a 9.5% GDP growth target for this year and very obstinately refuse to lower it sighting that they had far larger teams on the ground than other investment banks. Just a few weeks back that they had a 9.5% GDP target.

As the old saying goes the proof of the pudding is in the eating. We can continue talking about what it will be but it will be, regardless of what anybody says Morgan Stanley or the Finance Minister it will be what it will be, so the proof of the pudding is in the eating and while the Sensex of course is not so completely important and reflective, I think it is probably suggesting that things will not turn out as well but we will see it is just a matter of a few months and quarters, we will see what growth is.

The global cues haven’t been very good and it is the same situation that we have been talking about for our own market, just grinding lower and lower everyday?

Yes and there are some things which are happening which are disturbing which is that the commodity markets and the equity markets for sometime now are moving in the same direction. That typically happens when the world is extremely worried about growth.

At other points - just a few months back they had an inverse correlation - the more commodities fell, the more equities would rejoice. But in the last few weeks you go back and map the correlation; whenever we have had base metal sell offs or crude sell offs, equity markets have also plunged with it. This is typically the sign of things entering some kind of a negative spiral globally and that correlation is quite disturbing. Of course the way Alcoa tanked 11% cannot be very comforting on that score.

But more importantly the point that we were mentioning a bit earlier in the show that the S&P is probably 15-20 points away from its October lows that I think is the most important index in the world, like it or not, decoupling fan you are or not, the S&P is the mother of all indices. If the S&P goes to its October low, which is 835 or 840 and bounces back from their creating some illusion of a double bottom for the moment, then I think you have got a chance of a nice countertrend rally building up.

Mkts fall on fresh selling; all sectoral indices in red

Posted by : MMB Messenger

The markets are witnessing fresh waves of selling again after showing a bit of recovery from the day`s lows. Technology, banking, telecom, power, metal, and capital goods are down over 4%. The Nifty is hovering around 2,700 while the Sensex is struggling at 9,000. Midcap and smallcap stocks are trading in the red.

Will Nifty fall below 2500 by end of the November series?

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger

See portfolio investors back to India in 18-24 months: IDFC

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Nishid Shah, President and CIO, IDFC Investment Advisors, sees earnings disappointment for next two quarters, but assures that market has priced in this concern. Perhaps it is a good time to start buying again, Shah said, adding that market may see portfolio investors coming back to India in 18-24 months.

SENSEX WILL HIT 5600

Posted by : lynnus

Market will hit 5600 soon.. dont buy.. If u want to invest then buy R comm @ 150, bajaj auto @ 400, Bajaj holding @ 300, Kotak bank @ 200, SBI @ 560.. MARKET WILL HIT 5600 IN 2 MONTHS.. INVEST IN POWER AND PHARMA SECTOR..

Will Nifty fall below 2500 by end of the November series?

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger

USA or GM - who goes bankrupt first ?

Posted by : Expert-II

those who are pegging on a GM bailout, if the bailout is done USA will go bankrupt (if such bailout trends given to just 50 similar institutions). If bailout not given GM goes belly-up...
the choice is yours...