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   You are here :     Moneycontrol     MMB    Market View      Other Market Topics                         Most active discussions of 2006 , 2007 & 2008
Market dedpends on Delhi movement (1)   18-Jul-08 12:23Tracked by (0)  
Posted by:   zoombusiness on ( 18-Jul-08 12:23 )
If the government falls one could see the bottom for the market going off and this is being shown in the sort of premiums been seen for both calls and puts because people don’t want to take a chance and there are a lot of people who are actually buying the calls and puts and sitting tight because the markets can move either way. So whichever way it moves one could end up making money.

At least for the time being the markets would be very circumspect about the political scenario because today if you see most of the international cues are extremely positive whether its oil, or international markets. Moreover, near to home the inflation figures are better than what people were expecting. So in spite of all these positive cues, and inspite of the market opening better today, the markets will not sustain because of this uncertainty as far as this political circus is concerned. So this will be the only needle which can spoil this movement which we could see in the morning today because even as of now, it seems to be a touch and go as far as July 22 is concerned. Also, post July 22 you could see the markets moving very sharply either way. If the government falls you could really see the bottom for the market going off and in case the government sails through, you could actually see Nifty going up by at least around 200-250 points from here. This clearly is being shown in the sort of premiums which we are seeing for both calls and puts because people don’t want to take a chance and there are a lot of people who are actually buying the calls and puts and sitting tight because the markets can move either way. So whichever way it moves and if we have the calls and puts, you could end up making money, so that’s one of the reasons why the premiums are so high for both the calls and puts.

The people are quite confused and more than that it is the fear. So any upside one gets in this market people are normally utilizing it to go short or sell the existing positions. But things will change post-Tuesday and it could be either way. So in case the government wins the vote of confidence, you will have lot of these traders and investors coming back to the market, especially those who are sitting on the fence could in fact come back to the market and start buying. Possibly then we could say that whatever we saw in the last couple of days was the bottom for the market. But in case, if they lose the vote of confidence, then we will see lower levels than what we had seen in the recent past. So you will have a whole lot coming back, like selling in the market again.-Ambareesh Baliga -

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