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Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by :
treasureddhanTracked by: 2 Boarders
ELKHART, Ind. — To understand just how grim things have gotten in this northern Indiana town, consider a new law passed last month by the City Council that limits residents to one garage sale a month.
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It seems the perpetual garage sales — which for scores of people in this town are a sole source of income, and for others the only source of clothing — were annoying some residents. The restrictions will make the financial pinch that much tighter.
“I have no other option,” said Todd Baker, 34, who lost his factory job in July right before his wife gave birth to their third child. Friday was his last permissible day to sell old children’s clothing, muffin tins, a fake white Christmas tree, stereo speakers and dozens of household doodads out of his garage.
“I’ve never missed a day of work in my life,” Mr. Baker said. “Man, I’m shocked that I have to shut this down. My neighbors are usually out here, too. We’ve got regulars who are in the same situation, or lost their house, and when the bank took it, they took everything that was in it. I’m just trying to do as much as I can because the heat bills are going to go up 25 percent this winter, too.”
Elkhart, near the Michigan border in an area known as Michiana, is the white-hot center of the meltdown of the American economy. Its main industries, the manufacturing of recreational vehicles and motor homes, have fallen apart over the last year because of high gasoline prices. That has taken down ancillary businesses like R.V. parts suppliers and storage warehouses.
The jobless rate in Elkhart has increased more than in any metropolitan area in the country; it rose over 4.8 percentage points from August 2007 to August 2008. According to labor statistics released this summer, nearly 10,000 people were out of work, a rate of 9.3 percent.
“I’m just dwindling to the bottom,” Melinda Owens, 24, said as she emerged from the unemployment office.
City services are on the decline, and hold-ups are on the rise — there were nine armed robberies or attempted armed robberies on convenience stores in just the last two weeks. On Friday, the front-page news of the paper, The Elkhart Truth, was about a local plastic company that was actually not closing its plant.
The busiest spot in town seems to be the unemployment office, where 20 people stood in line on Friday and streams more passed through. Bryan and Christy Fisher were among them. The couple lost their house to foreclosure this year, then found one to rent; next week they will downsize to an apartment.
...
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : treasureddhan
American know only two thing one starting with s and other left to judgement of the readers 
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : treasureddhanTracked by: 2 Boarders
America sucked world money and now it has no money for itself and neither it could get any from outside world anymore. ...
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : WhatsUP
GoldChest:
In the recent selling of treasury bills there were no buyers..
Which means people are not buying US treasuries.. infact the rate of return on T Bills has increased in the last couple of days..
The reason the dollar is strengthing is due to the fact that most of the global trade is done in dollars and you need dollars to buy and sell.. in todays market there are no buyers and sellers for dollars as nobody wants to lend them (for the traders to buy and sell so the value of dollar has risen due to demand from traders/exporters)
yes going forward the dollar is worthless.. but I think when the dollar becomes worthless.. US Exporters will swamp the market..
imagine US becoming the manufacturing hub of the World!!!
When the dollar has depreciated Airbus started manufacturing certain parts in US (As long term they see the dollar loosing strength..)
Till now US was the only country happy to spend all that it wants .. (And have a strong Dollar) imagine US being a country that wants to export .. all thet it can just like china and all other countries..
(It will want a weak dollar)
US is directly walking towards the japanese model.. low interest rate.. export oriented.. Infact when the market was collapsing the Fed took some advise from the japanese Central bank and bought all the housing assets.. (Japan did that almost a decade back to make its bank solvent..)
Dollar down.. yes.. how down.. dont think it will be Rs 10 per dollar
I think we (India & other exporting countries) will not be able to withstand a dollar below Rs30-35.
There is also an excessive capacity buildup.. in certain industries.. you can expect those industries to do badly.. as demand destruction is happening as we speak..
Only the strong survive!!!..
=happy investing.
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : WhatsUPTracked by: 2 Boarders
GoldChest:
In the recent selling of treasury bills there were no buyers..
Which means people are not buying US treasuries.. infact the rate of return on T Bills has increased in the last couple of days..
The reason the dollar is strengthing is due to the fact that most of the global trade is done in dollars and you need dollars to buy and sell.. in todays market there are no buyers and sellers for dollars as nobody wants to lend them (for the traders to buy and sell so the value of dollar has risen due to demand from traders/exporters)
yes going forward the dollar is worthless.. but I think when the dollar becomes worthless.. US Exporters will swamp the market..
imagine US becoming the manufacturing hub of the World!!!
When the dollar has depreciated Airbus started manufacturing certain parts in US (As long term they see the dollar loosing strength..)
Till now US was the only country happy to spend all that it wants .. (And have a strong Dollar) imagine US being a country that wants to export .. all thet it can just like china and all other countries..
(It will want a weak dollar)
US is directly walking towards the japanese model.. low interest rate.. export oriented.. Infact when the market was collapsing the Fed took some advise from the japanese Central bank and bought all the housing assets.. (Japan did that almost a decade back to make its bank solvent..)
Dollar down.. yes.. how down.. dont think it will be Rs 10 per dollar
I think we (India & other exporting countries) will not be able to withstand a dollar below Rs30-35.
There is also an excessive capacity buildup.. in certain industries.. you can expect those industries to do badly.. as demand destruction is happening as we speak..
Only the strong survive!!!..
=happy investing.
...
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : goldchest
Dear vkk43,
The rise in the Dollar may be baffling many including yourself,but the explanation is very simple.
The low Interest rate regimes in the US and Japan had ensured copious money flows that drove the Bull Market of the last 4 Yrs. Stock and Commodity Markets in every country received heavy Money flow. When the big Financial Institution in USA ran into trouble Liquidity tightened and Risk aversion rose.Large Institutions rushed to liquidate their liquid Assets in all Markets to shore up their Cash positions.These funds were not diverted to other RISK Assets,instead got parked in US Treasury Bills.The Dollar had to strengthen.
Please keep in mind that this Dollar strength is temporary,till Markets stabilise.Once sanity returns the Dollar will start a slow but long decline.I expect it to lose half its value over the next decade.Mind you the Japanese Yen has strengthened against the Dollar as Japanese are prefering to take their money home to a zero Interest rather than seeing their Wealth erode.
I will be keen to SELL the Dollar forward(1 to 2 Yrs) using the Option route in the Global Markets.
This is the right time for Exporters to Sell their Dollar incomings into the Forward Market,unfortunately they did so in the first 2 Qtrs of 2008 and are suffering massive Treasury losses.
I hope you are now getting a better picture.
Regards!
Goldchest.
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : vkk43Tracked by: 2 Boarders
Thanks for your views. It has cleared a lot of my doubts as to why dollar is gaining vs other European currencies.
US $ will lose half of its value over the next decade - surprising.
As rightly said by you, most of the exporters hv already booked them for 1-4 years at 40/- and now stand no chance to avail of this opportunity.
When I put this question to someone, doing forex business, he told me that Europe too will face financial problems going forward. Let us wait and watch....
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : goldchest
Dear vkk43,
The rise in the Dollar may be baffling many including yourself,but the explanation is very simple.
The low Interest rate regimes in the US and Japan had ensured copious money flows that drove the Bull Market of the last 4 Yrs. Stock and Commodity Markets in every country received heavy Money flow. When the big Financial Institution in USA ran into trouble Liquidity tightened and Risk aversion rose.Large Institutions rushed to liquidate their liquid Assets in all Markets to shore up their Cash positions.These funds were not diverted to other RISK Assets,instead got parked in US Treasury Bills.The Dollar had to strengthen.
Please keep in mind that this Dollar strength is temporary,till Markets stabilise.Once sanity returns the Dollar will start a slow but long decline.I expect it to lose half its value over the next decade.Mind you the Japanese Yen has strengthened against the Dollar as Japanese are prefering to take their money home to a zero Interest rather than seeing their Wealth erode.
I will be keen to SELL the Dollar forward(1 to 2 Yrs) using the Option route in the Global Markets.
This is the right time for Exporters to Sell their Dollar incomings into the Forward Market,unfortunately they did so in the first 2 Qtrs of 2008 and are suffering massive Treasury losses.
I hope you are now getting a better picture.
Regards!
Goldchest.
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : goldchestTracked by: 2 Boarders
Dear vkk43,
The rise in the Dollar may be baffling many including yourself,but the explanation is very simple.
The low Interest rate regimes in the US and Japan had ensured copious money flows that drove the Bull Market of the last 4 Yrs. Stock and Commodity Markets in every country received heavy Money flow. When the big Financial Institution in USA ran into trouble Liquidity tightened and Risk aversion rose.Large Institutions rushed to liquidate their liquid Assets in all Markets to shore up their Cash positions.These funds were not diverted to other RISK Assets,instead got parked in US Treasury Bills.The Dollar had to strengthen.
Please keep in mind that this Dollar strength is temporary,till Markets stabilise.Once sanity returns the Dollar will start a slow but long decline.I expect it to lose half its value over the next decade.Mind you the Japanese Yen has strengthened against the Dollar as Japanese are prefering to take their money home to a zero Interest rather than seeing their Wealth erode.
I will be keen to SELL the Dollar forward(1 to 2 Yrs) using the Option route in the Global Markets.
This is the right time for Exporters to Sell their Dollar incomings into the Forward Market,unfortunately they did so in the first 2 Qtrs of 2008 and are suffering massive Treasury losses.
I hope you are now getting a better picture.
Regards!
Goldchest. ...
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : vkk43
I too think so. US$ is gaining while Euro and British Pound is falling. In case US$ is becoming weak, then its Dollar should weaken and not vice-versa.
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : vkk43Tracked by: 2 Boarders
That I cannot say. But I am a little surprised to see US $ gaining vis-a-vis other currencies even when they are facing so much financial crisis....
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : treasureddhan
Is devaluation of dollar by US is one of the solution for economy to pick up in that country ?
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : NODIKTracked by: 2 Boarders
Dear treasureddhan,
Love for our own country is one thing, but comparining the two countries is different.
WE are neither better economically neither safer than US. Just being emotional is not enough. ` Mera bharat mahan` .. my foot...
IN a country , where people still defacte in the open , & dont wash their hands after that. 70% of our brethern, are still longing for drinking water, half of them go to bed with empty stomachs.
What are we talking.. We are just ridiculing ourselves.
US or world economy may be in deep waters right now, but in the worst of times they are better than best of times of our economy .
You should thank your stars that the, world has slowly started knowing a little bit of,`India`because of our `techies`, otherwise, what you find in your `MAHAN DESH` , leaving a few cities. Hunger, powerty,exploitation.
Get out of your IVORY tower , & have a look at `your` INDIA.
INDIAN Stock markets do not describe `Economy OF india`, they only `highlight the wealth of few`.
regds
nodi...k ...
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : treasureddhan
I apprecate your concern for your loved ones. But the fact remains that US economy is going to dwindle in the coming days and the purchasing power of the common man in that country will be dismally low. It is better all the Indian leave the country be back home ,India is much safer country than US at any point of time. It is not that I wish US should go to dogs, but it is deep water, which none can save it
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : treasureddhanTracked by: 2 Boarders
Is devaluation of dollar by US is one of the solution for economy to pick up in that country ?...
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : vkk43
I too think so. US$ is gaining while Euro and British Pound is falling. In case US$ is becoming weak, then its Dollar should weaken and not vice-versa.
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by :
mastbullTracked by: 2 Boarders
Trend of exchange rates in several currencies undoubtedly reflects the strong inflence of US dollar and the main driver seems to be the US$ repatriation efforts by US institutions for shoring up their balance sheets. ...
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : vkk43
I too think so. US$ is gaining while Euro and British Pound is falling. In case US$ is becoming weak, then its Dollar should weaken and not vice-versa.
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : mastbullTracked by: 2 Boarders
Indignation and hurt are the feelings foremost among sufferers in current times.For the indiscretions and systemic deficiencies in USA, mkts all over have crashed, to dismay of lakhs of investors and many other stakeholders,who have to pay the price,be it ATP, or a Japanese senior citigen,or an Indian expat about to lose a job or an exporter/BPO entity losing an order..
It is almost as if capitalism as a system has failed due to gaps in regulation and co-ordination among regulatory agencies.
Will there be lessons learnt with systemic corrections following, or,ad hoc responses with no end to misery in sight.Only time can tell..
...
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : ifci_rocky
Q2 results on 14/10/08 as per BSE website.
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : vkk43Tracked by: 2 Boarders
I too think so. US$ is gaining while Euro and British Pound is falling. In case US$ is becoming weak, then its Dollar should weaken and not vice-versa....
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : pkjattking
No USA is not becoming weak it will b Europe.... and England..... euro and British pound is now multi year low to us dollar.......,,While European mkts took a dive there currency too take a dive....while Dow took a dive...USD was rallying........,,compare footsie to Dow...... long term while Dow has support is still in long term uptrend .... footsie wants to head for stone age.........,, we will find out very shortly......
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : pkjattkingTracked by: 2 Boarders
No USA is not becoming weak it will b Europe.... and England..... euro and British pound is now multi year low to us dollar.......,,While European mkts took a dive there currency too take a dive....while Dow took a dive...USD was rallying........,,compare footsie to Dow...... long term while Dow has support is still in long term uptrend .... footsie wants to head for stone age.........,, we will find out very shortly.........
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : ifci_rocky
Dear knair what U said is correct. But it is not the end of US , But the downfall of US started & Russia took 18 years to get stronger after prestrioka.
Same rule applies to US, it is becoming waek day by day.
Good Luck & Happy Investing.
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : vkk43Tracked by: 2 Boarders
Any views/idea about the results for IFCI??...
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : ifci_rocky
Q2 results on 14/10/08 as per BSE website.
interesting article
Posted by : mastbullTracked by: 0 Boarder
A Financial Crisis Fifty Years in the Making?
Posted by Sarah Green on October 8, 2008 12:13 PM
Over the past few weeks, I grew sick of listening to ...
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : ifci_rockyTracked by: 2 Boarders
Dear knair what U said is correct. But it is not the end of US , But the downfall of US started & Russia took 18 years to get stronger after prestrioka.
Same rule applies to US, it is becoming waek day by day.
Good Luck & Happy Investing....
In reply to:
Decoupling days are coming ahead.........
Posted by : knair
treassureddhan,
Well, so thats it.
You can have your view. No arguments.
As far as I am concerned, the matter is different. My children work there. Lakhs of other Indian people work there. Lot of money is coming from US to India. The IT companies are depending lot to US. Even if they are not sending lakhs of people to US for working, they get work here in India and millions of people live on that. We export worth billions to US and that money is coming to India. It is not only US. We have lakhs of people working in other countries, which have got a direct or indrect link with US. So their income is also linked with at least a few drops of US blood.
In todays world, it is difficult to segregate people. We got US girls married to Indians and Indians marry to US girls. How many Indian students study there. How many people get a living through some or the other channels of US involvement. I cannot pray for the destruction of US or any other country for that matter.
When we come back to India, we are also feeding lakhs of pakistanis and bengladeshis due to political leverage. But they are creating terror centres. Naxalites and Maoists - both communist outfits - are regularly destroying public property and killing people. They are more dangerous people than the outside terrorists. We are not capable of tracking them due to weakness in intelligence and political side-swingings. But we get some clues from Israle. Since they support US, shall we declare them unwanted? The world is so small now. We are linked with other countries also. There is no decoupling to mention about. Some or the other way, we all are interlinked whether it is Americans, West Indies, Canadians, Chinese, Maldivies, Sri Lankans or any other country for that matter.
If any thing bad happens to US, it affects to our people, at least those who live there and those who directly related to them here in India.
When WTO was downed, some tv channels show certain Arabs enjoyed it.
Some of my relatives, who were committed communists also done the same thing. But when a few of them knew that their kins also went with WTO, they could not hold. A scene a day before and a scene a day after!
I have nothing to add.
knair
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