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BullSheetRules
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Nick BULLSheetRules signifies that there are lot of BS around in stock market... A common investor is taken for a ride by tv media experts via Bear or Bull cartels even though a common investor can make MONEY quicker than those big players because of sheer small size.
Do check REAL DATA other than EMOTIONAL BS from different cartels! :)
Just for info
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New SEC Rule May Help Markets
Some economists are attributing much of the current financial crisis to something as mundane-seeming as accounting.
The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Accounting Standards Board have just made an announcement that, dry as it sounds, may mean a great deal: \`When an active market for a security does not exist, the use of management estimates that incorporate current market participant expectations of future cash flows, and include appropriate risk premiums, is acceptable.\`
There is no market right now for the worthless mortgage-backed securities -- that\`s one of the reasons we\`re in this crisis. That means financial institutions that are holding them must value them at zero, or near to it. That makes the institutions themselves worth much less.
Accounting is not something that ordinary taxpayers think about much, but it could hardly be more important to businesses: It\`s the value they place on what they own, what they owe and what they can sell.
An odd-sounding accounting phrase at the heart of this is something called \`mark-to-market\` accounting. Many think that if this requirement were ended, the crises could be eased.
Simply put, mark-to-market accounting requires companies to set the value for the assets they own at the price they could fetch on the open market right now. The prices must be \`marked to market;\` hence the phrase.
What does that have to do with the current crisis? The root problem now is that financial institutions have been caught holding value-less, or \`toxic,\` assets on their books, such as the mortgage-backed securities based on sub-prime mortgages that have defaulted.
The government believes that those assets will be worth something soon -- that\`s why they want to buy them in the 0 billion Wall Street rescue plan. But under mark-to-market rules currently required, they are worth almost nothing, threatening those who hold them with insolvency.
If the holders could place a value on the assets equal to the estimated value they should bring in the future, suddenly the balance sheets of these financial institutions would look a lot healthier.
If all this sounds like voodoo accounting, well, all accounting can sound that way sometimes. But remember this: Even though homeowners have defaulted on sub-prime mortgages, there is a house at the bottom of it all and that has real value.
The proposed changes to the accounting rules take that into account and may help ease the current crisis.
-- Frank Ahrens
---
Point to be noted: Some economists are attributing much of the current financial crisis to something as mundane-seeming as accounting.
If all this sounds like voodoo accounting, well, all accounting can sound that way sometimes. But remember this: Even though homeowners have defaulted on sub-prime mortgages, there is a house at the bottom of it all and that has real value.
Have fun!
Gud luk & happy investing!...
Another info
Anyway, just like that popular BS myth, Buy Low and Sell High, \`buy at every dip & sell at every rise\` is one another BS Myth of stock market for novice traders and investors! :) That myth is essentially to stop Patient, LT investors from bookin higher profits on their portfolio!
Remember when some stocks made all time lows, everyone was not BUYing. There were pressure on traders to SELL in order to BUY back quickly! That is why, there were calls from BS experts not to BUY as bottom is unknown! :) :)
That is why, Buffet approch of investing OUTSMART all the popular BS myths of stock market! :)
Hopefully, all these volatile times will help ppl to understand some of the deepest secrets of making Money in stock markets or for that matter, any market! :)
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Friends,
Looking at the current situation, I just did some technical analysis taking into account WORST possible situations for BEARish corrections!
Here are the some technical results to think over for worst possible cases!
So far, 4 points are clear!
Jan 8, Point 0 - 6282.45,6357.10,6221.60,6287.85
Jan 22, Point 1 - 5203.35,5203.35,4448.50,4899.30
May 2, Point 2 - 5265.30,5298.85,5197.60,5228.20
Jul 16, Point 3 - 3861.55,3920.05,3790.20,3816.70
Aug 12, Point 4 - 4620.95,4649.85,4525.75,4552.25
Point 5 - Point ? -
Point 5 to lie somewhere between 2193 and 3690!
Once that point lie somewhere between those two, then so called TA is assumed to complete its BEARish corrections!
Have a close watch on Fundamental and Sentimental situations!
No need to PANIC! Just use such information in order to PLAN your GAME better!
Those who are RISK prone or prone to heart attack should STAY away from the GAME! :)
PLAN your GAME accordingly!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Using our TA as a TOY, let me UNOFFICIALLY declare the start of BULL RUN! Nifty all set to go for 6500+ level! In case, Nifty goes below 4325, then we need to revisit the GAME as that means that Big players would bring Nifty below 4000 as part of the original below of 3400 value. Gud luk & happy investing!
Alert Sep 17
Be in 100% CASH! Nifty will be under BEARish pressure!
It seems that Most Blue Chip companies will go for a TOSS!
PLAN your GAME accordingly!
Alert Sep 16
Another note: PLAY with TARGET of 4300 with trailing SL for Nifty in ST!
That is what how the positions are CURRENTLY taken by different PLAYers for Nifty.
So, do not be in RUSH to BUY all at high level in one GO! :)
Alert Sep 15
Time to start BUILDing LONG positions in this 3900-4200 Nifty range with SL around 3750!
FIIs did stop that MAD SELLing!
In case, FIIs continue their MAD SELLing, then Nifty will go close to 3100.
So, PLAN you GAME accordingly.
As per my BS views, Nifty should show BULLish trend along with DOW in MT!
Refer to those 3 points as discussed before!
Time to move from 100%CASH status to deployment into the market with strict SL and check that stupid FIIs flow! :)
Good to note that with SWEET DEATH of Lehman, USD 613 billion debt is gone into THIN AIR!
We do not need to worry about all those SUB PRIME mess anymore!
Time to BUY and BUY! :)
I love the intelligence of US financial wizards! :)
Time to Remember Buffet famous quote: BUY Fear and SELL Greed!
All set to build LONG Positions now!
Time to get rid of those HABITUAL BEARS! :)
Alert Sep 13
Time to start BUILDing LONG positions in this 4000-4250 Nifty range with SL around 3750!
Nifty around 4160 should give good opportunities to BUILD positions.
Do check that FIIs stopped their MAD SELling. This I expect to stop in this coming week!
If not, then continue to remain in 100% CASH Status!
After Lehman, another FII seems to be in trouble.
BUY and HOLD investors should continue to remain in 100% CASH status!
Next shares in line is to GET out of the STOCKS where Merril has larger HOLDINGS! :)
ALERT Sep 10
Time to start BUILDing positions with SL around 4100.
Dow is showing BULLish current underneath!
15 Jul, Aug 11, Sep 5... 4th point to go above Aug 11 unless DOW goes below 10700.. in MT !
Do not chase stock at the moment! Let the dust settles! :)
FIIs like Lehman will continue to SELL! Wait for the price to come to your risk reward ratio kind of level! :)
Be highly Stock Specific! I have not still got those SAIL and TATASTEEL at my desired level! :((
ALERT Sep 05
Time to SIT on cash again to watch the GAME from sidelines!
ALERT Sep 01
Revisit to the GAME as SL was hit:
Game is still around the same point of SL. Signal is still not clear!
YEN DOLLAR ratio is going DOWN!
Dow could remain under pressure this week or month! Dow may go to 11200 - 11100 in coming days.
August has come and gone! Nifty is still above 4000 as part of that huge CHEATing! :) Short sellers please FEEL FREE to short sell to bring Nifty to 4000 :)
Using TA as a toy, do not take 100% position as of today as the GAME is not CLEAR! There could be weaknesses in Nifty in coming days in case Nifty followed DOW trend wise.
So PLAN your GAME accordingly!
Another point for Long Term investors: Just like everyone was not making PROFITS when Nifty had HIT high value in Jan. Same way, everyone was not making LOSSES when Nifty had HIT 3800. If those Long Term investors build good positions in certain stocks (I have some FILTERED Criteria for Indian stock market as mentioned in the homepage), those should be richly rewarded. As Buffet says that Stock market is designed to transfer MONEY from ACTIVE to PASSIVE. :)
One thing I can tell you by reading some of BS media over the weekend that we would start hearing many SELL calls in coming days OR there will be many BUY calls with very high TARGET. So, smart investors or traders should be careful about those FEAR and GREED calls as many ‘intermediate’ BUY calls for stocks will be met resulting in higher and higher TARGETS!.
Recent example that must be in the living memory of those traders/investors: Oil was supposed to reach 200 USD. That even did not manage to cross over 150 USD. :) GAME is SIMILAR whether the GAME is PLAYed in STOCK market or Oil Market or Gold Market or anywhere else. :) Same kind of BS and same kind of traps! :)
A side note: Nifty has not touched 3600. Those who are waiting for Nifty to touch 4000 again, please continue to wait and miss those money making opportunities. Remember Being RIGHT and Making MONEY is not SAME!
I have observed that there are many BOARDERS who intentionally MISGUIDE normal retail investors or traders. So please be careful of such boarders! Those boarders have short time perspectives at times and miss the overall GAME PLAN!
Remember Stock market is a GAME of REAL MONEY! Going ahead be careful of those BS experts. Do your own analysis to make those SELL or BUY decisions! After all, it is your hard-earned MONEY, not that of BS experts!
Wish everyone a gud luk & happy investing!
Also note: In case of some stock moves up and continuous BUYing is visible, then MAXIMUM UPSIDE needs to be RECALCULATED. Gud luk & happy investing!
Let us review our simple thumb rules again. :)
Stock market is a GAME of REAL MONEY.
Follow simple rules, GO Play and WIN.
These simple rules will work as long as public memory is SHORT and no major BUYIng or SELLing is done by an FII or MFs. TV experts continue with their old games.
BULLshit Rule No. #1:
When CNBC analysts or TV experts or Media say BUY a particular share, then wait for some days. Exit from the current position on immediate rise. The price will come down. Do not be in HURRY. Some big players offload their shares during that time.
Corollary Price will be UP for that or next one or two days. SELL if you have the HOLDing during the artificial RISE. BUY back later provided the script is fundamentally good.
When CNBC analysts or TV experts or Media say SELL a particular share, then wait for some days. SELL a few at current price and BUY again on reasonable dips. The price will go up. Do not be in HURRY. Some big players initially trigger STOP LOSS by SELLing shares with thin volume and then start ACCUMULATING shares in big way.
Corollary Price will be DOWN for that or next one or two days. SELL immediately to BUY back or make a FRESH BUY in next one or two days looking at the market sentiments.
BULLshit Rule No. #2:
Do not see price during the trading hours
Number of BUYers / number of SELLers during the trading hours indicate nothing. There are always some FAKE orders to get rid of weak hands. Some trades at high price or low price never get executed!
Number of BUYers / number of SELLers at the end of day indicate something.
Investors ideally should check the delivery figure from nseindia to get an idea what is going in a particular share.
Further clarifications:
For investors, Total Volume traded has no significance. Important is the volume of shares changing hands.
For traders, Total Volume traded has critical significance, specially, for day traders.
For example: SELL share A at 64 and BUY the same share A at 61. Overall volume: 2, actual share changing hands 1.
There are many strong reasons from the stock exchanges all over the world not to disclose the identities about BUYers and SELLers on daily basis -- Weak hands or Strong hands! Otherwise, about all so called experts and analysts, we would have known the difference between what they say and what they do. :)
This is a part of GAME involving real money.
BULLshit Rule No. #3:
Maximise Profits / Minimise losses - Encourage winners / Discourage losers - Upward or Downward Momentum - SELL or BUY decision
Known by many names - Maximise Profits / Minimise losses - Encourage winners / Discourage losers - Upward or Downward Momentum - SELL or BUY decision
Implementing this rule will require some expereince and practice.
- Once a stock get into INITIAL momentum, do not be in HURRY to SELL (Upward Momentum) or to BUY (Downward Momentum) during the trading hours.
- There must be some good reasons for the same for sudden BREAK OUTs.
- Decision to SELL or BUY should be taken at the end of day.
- Just keep in this point in mind: nobody can be always successful in BUYing at lowest price and SELLing at highest price.
If someone tells you this, then someone is telling you a lie.
- After initial break outs and with intermediate small up and downs, Strong BULLs PUSH the price to highs after highs just like Strong BEARS will PULL the price to lows after lows.
- Underlying reasons: HUGE shorts are built by BEARs during the downtrend which they need to cover in any case.
HUGE Longs are built by BULLs during the uptrend which they need to cover in any case.
SHORTing is better for investors as this help strong hands realise higher profits for their wise invesments.
E.g. if one do SHORTing, the price will go down by 10-20% or in worst case 50-60% But never 100%. However, the upward rally will be so fast that 10-20% or 50-60% will translate to more than 50-100-200%. In general, during SHORT, you will hear many BUY calls whereas during SHORT Covering, you will hear many SELL calls!
In general, gain in LONG is higher than gain in SHORT.
The price will never reach to new HIGH or LOW in one day as it takes some time to build a stable price range (base of Strong hands / weak hands) before PUSHing the price upward or PULLing the price downward. :)
BULLshit 10% Rule:
Using LIMIT order, there is one better way to do SELL or BUY call.
While placing an order, there is something called DISCLOSED QUANTITY. This can go as 10% of actual quantity depending on what you want to do.
For example:
One want to BUY 1 lakhs shares of Share A at 40.50 or whatever comfortable price. Make a BUY order and put the disclosed quantity as 10 thousand (10 % of 1 lakhs). One will get 1 lakhs shares once the price is reached even though order shown to the general public in queue is 10 thousand. :)
One want to SELL 1 lakhs of Share A at 40.50 or whatever comfortable price. Make a SELL order and put the disclosed quantity as 10 thousand (10 % of 1 lakhs). The moment price goes above your value, all shares are sold even though order shown to the general public in queue is 10 thousand. :)
This way, one will get better deal for the investment.
If the desired price is not reached, placing a MARKET ORDER is not a bad idea.
BullShit Theories Rule:
Bottomline fact is that Market is RANDOM.
Since market is random, everyone tries to come with a 'nice' theory to explain the RANDOMNESS. Be it fundamental theory or technical theory or sentimental theory. For some strange reasons, most people will make up elaborate theories about what is going on in the markets.
The media are always trying to explain the market even though they know nothing about the market. :) If you have noticed, all theories talks excessively on what is happening or has happened. Not much space or talks is about what is going to happen! :)
Price can go UP or DOWN without a valid reason. Still, media will come up with nice theories to explain the fall or rise.
Remember: Stock market in the end is a GAME of REAL Money.
YEN DOLLAR RATIO - Global cues RULE:
All global BULLshits related to x,y,z etc are reflected in YEN DOLLAR ratio. Higher the YEN DOLLAR, the better it is for equities.
Whenever in doubt about global cues, watch YEN to DOLLAR ratio. That ratio will decide the global market trend. (Fear / Hope)
BUY and HOLD rule:
To avoid confusion, some TA needs to be done.
Not always TRUE but general observation is:
HOLD and BUY a stock after a strong UPTREND means BIG PLAYER are offloading the stocks. (booking profits) Price will fall shortly. Even the players who entered earlier may start offloading shares to accumulate the shares at lower price later.
HOLD and BUY a stock after a strong DOWNTREND and base formation means some BIG PLAYERs are about to ENTER into the stock.
BUY on DIPS rule:
To avoid confusion, some TA needs to be done.
Not always TRUE but general observation is:
BUY on DIPS a stock after a strong UPTREND means BIG PLAYER are offloading the stocks. (booking profits) Price will fall shortly. Even the players who entered earlier may start offloading shares to accumulate the shares at lower price later.
BUY on DIPS a stock after a strong DOWNTREND and base formation means some BIG PLAYERs are about to ENTER into the stock and that dip is not likely to happen in short to medium term. This is to avoid investors or traders from ACCUMULATINGing the stocks.
For Indian contexts, some of the FILTERED criteria that I have:
- Stock should be in FnO -->MUST
- Volume should be high so that not easy to manipulate by a single group -->NICE TO HAVE
- Stock should be momentum stock. Stock should have everything for everyone – LT, MT , ST traders / investors -->NICE TO HAVE
Note: There are different players in the market. Each players may have his or her own filtered criteria. :)
a. Van K Tharp - Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom
b. Nicolas Darvas - How I Made $ 2 Million in the Stock Market
True, for trader cum investor mindset, one need to have both fundamental and technical approaches. :) This DARVAS book is not on recommended list by different BS experts as it openly compares stock market, specially, Wall Street with casino. :) In my view, just fundamental approach will not work as we need those casino dealers to make money! :)
Brief TA Overview:
Before going for TA, I would suggest you to read the recommended classic books including Darvas classic book if you have not read that. Nicolas Darvas - How I Made $ 2 Million in the Stock Market. :)
Conventional books related to complicated rules and information on TA will not work as most of those books are written by the similar BS experts! :) For every market, one will find a new Age TA Guru. That Guru will come into limelight once the event is over and enough money is made. :)
Anyway, coming back to books on TA, I have not found any worth one for 'evergreen' recommendation. If you know something specific, let me know. I may reread that to get new perspectives. :)
In TA, there are two set of INDICATORS. LAGGING indicators and LEADING indicators.
Simple TA theories rules (Lagging indicators) related to MACD / Stochs / EMA can be found in any good technical book. Next TA step in term of advancement would be Elliot Wave (Leading indicators) and those Japanese Candlestick Charting techniques.
Once the event is over, most of TA stuff will work beautifully as TA will just ignore or adjust the data to make those indicators look beautiful so that end user feels as if Holy Grail is found whereas that Holy Grail is within the trader or investor. :)
For easy reference, here is some list:
- For MACD / Stochs / RSI, check any good technical books
- Japanese Candlestick Charts - by Nison
- For elliot wave, one can visit EW site.
Simple TA Theory:
If someone love TA to make a BUY or SELL decision, then here is some information. Check charts on some free websites such as icharts . Unless we are in Strong UPTREND or Strong DOWNTREND! , Never use the default values for these indicators (Stochastic, MACD, RSI, EMA). Otherwise, you are BOUND to loose in the GAME! :) For some strange reasons, Fibonacci number works better. E.g. RSI (5), MACD (8, 13, 5), Stochastic (5,3,3), EMA (8, 13, 21, 34, 55,89, 144, 233) :)
All these indicators are lagging indicators. That implies that they lag after the event has happened. Details about them are available on various sites. if somone is not aware about them, please take some time to learn those simple TA.
Stochastic, MACD and RSI combinations work BEST in Range Bound market.
EMA works BEST in Strong Uptrend or Downtrend market
Meanwhile, we will adopt our BS decision rules to so called simple TA rules later! I hope, with some common SENSE and having a look on charts, it will be easier to adopt those rules to our simple TA! :)
Do remember that TA is just a TOY! We just need to supplement TA through FA and Sentiments!
BS Open / Transparent Theory about so called experts:
BS Open / Transparent Theory about so called experts: The stock market is incredibly full of BS, hype, manipulation and lies. It is no wonder that so many investors and traders are confused–with over 90% of traders losing money! (90%+ according to one of the statistics). How can you invest with or listen to anyone when you cannot see EXACTLY how they make money or when those experts just keep changing their statements every other day? :)
Most financials experts will share complicated RULES through their cartels as if they know everything about the market. Refer to our BULLShit Theories Rule.
Continuing our BS talks, some of our BULLshit rules work not because those rules are some SECRETS of stock markets. All of them are just part of common senses! Stock market is not some CHARITY place. Just like playing CHESS against COMPUTER, Stock market is a GAME of REAL Money where GAME is against so called Mr. Market. In this technical age, Mr. Market is increasingly getting replaced with AUTOMATED Computer Trading! What does it mean: Feed a wrong data to that computer, see the results. :)
The best part about our current strategy is that anyone can do this–no IIT / IIM / Ivy league education required, no wealthy connections and certainly not much intelligence required. :) It is all about dedication, adapting to evolving patterns and a willingness to learn.
May be, in future, I will post modified rules based some simple TA rules (Stochastic, MACD, RSI, EMA).
If someone is HUMBLE enough to accept that Market is SUPREME, then see the results. Those who would remain stubborn to their views will quickly be out of the market! This is how the GAME of Stock market is designed. :)
Let us play KBC::
Who is the biggest investor in the Indian Stock Market?
Your options are:
1. Foreign Institutional Investors
2. High Net worth Individual
3. Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC)
4. Banks (Foreign or Indian)
Think for a moment. Clue is: Answer is not 1 as those so called BS experts want you to believe so. :) Just do some study and find the RIGHT answer! :)
Stock market is a GAME of REAL MONEY.
Follow simple rules, GO Play and WIN.
Another note: Our rules are not for BUY and HOLD investors. Our rules are for fast MONEY swing Traders. If I have a choice between making money quickly and making money slowly, I prefer to make it quickly. Holding a share for years or decades and hoping for an eventual profit simply does not appeal to me.
As a swing trader, we need to give 15-30 minutes a day to decide and make MONEY in stock market. There is no NEED to be in FnO or sitting in front of computer or terminal for long hours. Retail investors or traders should use the INEFFICIENCY in the market. For us, stock market is NOT only the GAME. We have life beyond stock market. We also want to travel, relax, pursue other business and enjoy our family. Being in front of terminals, making lot of money and becoming ghosts to the rest of world is NOT our aim. So, a huge FORTUNE is worthless if our quality of life declines. :)
BIG players always want general public to be EMOTIONALLY attached, be it shares, home, cars or anything. They always like them to be LONG TERM investors. Otherwise how will they make MONEY. :)
As they say, there are million of ways to make MONEY in Dalal Street, ours based on some simple rules is just one of them. These RULES will work as long as Media or tv experts continue with their OLD GAMES. Buffet knew this from the beginning and hence built a FORTUNE. We just need to build a small FORTUNE. :)
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07 Oct 2008 00:43
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Dear vam_aru,
Technically, there is Limited downside.
If FIIs continue with their MAD SELLing even after this 53% correction, then expect GAME to TURN dirty going forward in Indian markets!
This is what I mentioned before! low volume GAME can become dangerous if PLAYed on continuous basis!
Let us hope better SENSE prevails among those BIG PLAYers!
I hope this clarifies!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
...
Technically, there is Limited downside.
If FIIs continue with their MAD SELLing even after this 53% correction, then expect GAME to TURN dirty going forward in Indian markets!
This is what I mentioned before! low volume GAME can become dangerous if PLAYed on continuous basis!
Let us hope better SENSE prevails among those BIG PLAYers!
I hope this clarifies!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
...
07 Oct 2008 00:24
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07 Oct 2008 00:20
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07 Oct 2008 00:06
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07 Oct 2008 00:00
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06 Oct 2008 23:48
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Dear harishkrsharma,
Let us hope for the best!
Technial suggests something else!
--
Technically, IFCI all set to go to 25 level! If those BEARs start further hammering on IFCI, I would not be SURPRISED to see that around 15 level over a longer time frame!
So, let us hope for the best! Some positive news or actions happen this MONTH before those hammering start going even in IFCI !
--
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
Let us hope for the best!
Technial suggests something else!
--
Technically, IFCI all set to go to 25 level! If those BEARs start further hammering on IFCI, I would not be SURPRISED to see that around 15 level over a longer time frame!
So, let us hope for the best! Some positive news or actions happen this MONTH before those hammering start going even in IFCI !
--
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
06 Oct 2008 23:38
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Dear fmcgbites,
you forget to add info about Brazilian market!
--
Emerging market stocks fell the most in at least two decades and exchanges in Brazil and Russia were forced to halt trading as the global banking crisis escalated in Europe and oil fell below a barrel.
Brazil`s Bovespa index tumbled 15 percent, while Russia`s Micex Index plunged nearly 20 percent before trading was halted for a third time today. China`s benchmark CSI 300 Index slid 5.1 percent, its biggest one-day decline since August. Indonesia and Saudi Arabia lost the most in at least six years. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slumped 11 percent, the biggest intraday loss since 1987 when Bloomberg records began.
--
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
you forget to add info about Brazilian market!
--
Emerging market stocks fell the most in at least two decades and exchanges in Brazil and Russia were forced to halt trading as the global banking crisis escalated in Europe and oil fell below a barrel.
Brazil`s Bovespa index tumbled 15 percent, while Russia`s Micex Index plunged nearly 20 percent before trading was halted for a third time today. China`s benchmark CSI 300 Index slid 5.1 percent, its biggest one-day decline since August. Indonesia and Saudi Arabia lost the most in at least six years. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slumped 11 percent, the biggest intraday loss since 1987 when Bloomberg records began.
--
Gud luk & happy investing! :)...
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