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Market outlook in this week (29-09-2008):

Wow, again all the targets achieved. It seems that I becoming a big trader instead of the investor ;)
Of course finally I am making money so well even in these turbulent times.

To give the market outlook for this week is really a testing time for any one. In this week, my advice to all is to avoid trading due huge volatility/ uncertainty. If you can take risk then you can go through this call,

Here I will give three strategies which can work for us;
1. Go short nifty below 3950 (if it dips) targeting the T1:3910 T2:3855 with a stop loss 3995.
2. Short straddle by selling the 4100 nifty call and put looking for the band 3850-4150 to book profits on either side.
I will prefer the second one due to some good news going on, like 700bn$ rescue package, indo-us nuke at the final hurdle but I strongly believe that these news can give just relief rallies or give us opportunities to open fresh shorts.

Advance cheers
With thanks
Be and make

Previous weeks Market outlook (22-09-2008):

1. Global financial crisis may not be solved by the 800bn$ rescue operation! According to the analysts we are going to see more bankrupts/bailouts in US. Government may not buy all the companies and also the problem is that the current prices of mortgages are slipped drastically. So, defaults are much more, by knowing this US govt. put the ‘ban on shorting the financials’. Even this 800bn$ will contribute less than the 8% of total mortgage market and also it will be used within the two year period. So, if much more defaults happen then the real picture will emerge.
2. As crude rise our domestic problems again in a bumpy road
3. Our economy is now going with huge fiscal deficit government still giving various subsidies due to the upcoming elections
4. Global EMs and BR_C equities are trading around 10 price multiple but whereas India trading at 18 PE (Nifty)
5. FIIs are not pumping funds to India they are just withdrawing as much as possible, so no inflows in the near term
6. Due to high interest rates Q2 margins are going to shrink further and will make Sensex/nifty much costlier.
7. History tells us that bear markets lasts more than 14 -36months means we are just 9 months old and still valuations looks very highly valued means we are going to break the 3800 in the near term.

So, no need to go panic for bottom fishing.
market ourlook for this week;
There may be a gap up opening on monday (not above the nifty 80points) and use this up move to go short.
T1:4150
T2:4070
T3:3975
But, better to book profits 50% at T1 and 25@ at T2&T3. The stiff stop loss should be observed at 4450.

Previous weeks Market outlook (15-09-2008):

Wow, this is the twenty third week my calls winning for me consistently. Last Monday I posted a article to go short above 4550 in three steps and asked to keep the positions till the weekend and the call absolutely worked for me.

This week markets are at crucial junction where it should get the support. Book all profits on all your last week’s short calls and go long nifty with a
T1:4325
T2:4450
T3:4525 (better to book profits at least two third of the calls at T2).
But, remember that stiff stop loss 4100 should be required for this call.

With thanks
Be and make

Previous weeks Market outlook (25-08-2008):

Hold your short positions, till nifty reaches the 4150 and this week some technical bounce might happen and will lead to the 4450 or 4500. Use this up moves for adding more short positions. The medium term trend is positive and is valid till Nifty sustains above the 4125 and around this level trend reversal might happen which can push the indices to the 4500 level.

Previous weeks Market outlook (18-08-2008):

Hold your positions targeting the previous targets given on 04-08-08.

Previous weeks Market outlook (04-08-2008):

Last week my calls were not activated. This week too I will give the same call means Go short Nifty above 4550 targeting the lower end of the band having T1:4325 T2:4205 T3:4075 with a stiff stop loss at 4625. Actually the short term trend is UP and will get the further strength if it crosses 4775. But, the signals we are getting replicate the ‘classic example of a bear market’.

Market outlook –short term (17-08-2008):

Absolutely the same was happened as I expected in the previous march month call. This is the time to review the call.
Now, some negative factors turning to be positive factors and some of the points not changed. Markets are factored in all the bad news (which I have predicted on march08). So, from here we will see some good news like (consolidation of crude, inflation and interest rates;) and some bad news (like shrinking of margins, upcoming elections, Low FII inflows etc,). So in my view from here markets will have both good news and bad news. So, markets are range-bounded between 3800-4800 and best way to trade is ‘Buy on every dip’. It is time to reconstruct your portfolio and acquire good stocks in your bag.

Conclusion:

The stocks I prefer are purely based on the fundamentals not on technicals so should hold at least 6-18 months.

Present my holdings (As on 29-09-2008):

1.RPL @ 150.5-

Stocks interested to Pick:

From large caps for short term Rel cap, RPL,BHEL and RIL. From Mid cap for long term bartronics, ICSA, Tata metaliks and adhunik met etc.,

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Happy Investing

K A L Y A N

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