Reliance Industries

Relance may not fall below 1000....

Posted by : bhusbhac

If 10 PE is the measure for Indian investors then Q1 results EPS was close to Rs 30. According to the advance tax numbers Q2 results should also come out at around Rs 30. QOQ EPS = Rs 30 are better numbers than the corresponding quarters last year. For RIL to fall below 1000 the next 2 quarter combined numbers should be around Rs 40/-. Gas and oil production is not taken into account so EPS of more than Rs 40 is on the cards for any one or both of the next two quarters. So Reliance going down to Rs 1000 is quite out of the question and unless something really goes very wrong which from now on with the strong triggers ready with our Finance Ministry market reversal would take place depedning on the smaller FII holding left in our stock markets. So stop dreaming and letting your imagination run wild based on highly pessimistic experts. I dont really know any better of what the future holds but it seems wiser to play the markets depending on how events and results come before us with hard evidence.

If further major damage befalls our market the present Government will not be able to face the electorate and so all attempts to reverse the market force is well on the card.

I hope you have ready yesterdays Time of India so it is not just some guesswork from me.

Relance may not fall below 1000....

Posted by : yagneswar

Above discussion stress following things

1) accumulate RIL instead of RPL when it reaches your afford level
I agree RIL and RPL kept in tandem for no reason when RIL is a running unit RPL not so. (RIL may have a stake thats different)
2) FIIs pulling rug for RIL now for liquidity and other reasons
3) RIL reaching sub 1000 level is possible
Hope marketman and bhusbhac will agree

LOOT SAKO TO LOOT LO.

Posted by : libran.

lolz...good one....at least we can smile even when our A** are burning.. he he

LOOT SAKO TO LOOT LO.

Posted by : Sriman35

-Q-Sriman35-
saari paisa loot gayi..! pahle kisse bank ko lootna padega. :)
-UQ-

-Q-vkk43-
Suppose there is no money there also, then???
-uQ-

Then it will be a Civil war. One may call it as World War-3.

Regards,
Sri

Reliance Industries slips further

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Reliance Industries has touched a 52-week low of Rs 1,703. At 11:14 am, the share was quoting at Rs 1,720.90, down Rs 40.05, or 2.27%. The company has alloted 12 crore shares to promoters on exercise of warrants, lock-in period of 3 years, reports CNBC-TV18. It was trading with volumes of 601,974 shares.

LOOT SAKO TO LOOT LO.

Posted by : vkk43

It was just a joke in reply to yr msg. Thanks.

LOOT SAKO TO LOOT LO.

Posted by : Sriman35

-Q-Sriman35-
saari paisa loot gayi..! pahle kisse bank ko lootna padega. :)
-UQ-

-Q-vkk43-
Suppose there is no money there also, then???
-uQ-

Then it will be a Civil war. One may call it as World War-3.

Regards,
Sri

LOOT SAKO TO LOOT LO.

Posted by : vkk43

Suppose there is no money there also, then???

Relance may not fall below 1000....

Posted by : yagneswar

Above discussion stress following things

1) accumulate RIL instead of RPL when it reaches your afford level
I agree RIL and RPL kept in tandem for no reason when RIL is a running unit RPL not so. (RIL may have a stake thats different)
2) FIIs pulling rug for RIL now for liquidity and other reasons
3) RIL reaching sub 1000 level is possible
Hope marketman and bhusbhac will agree

Relance may not fall below 1000....

Posted by : bhusbhac

Dear marketman - Reliance facts and figures for the last 5 quarters with EPS every quarter with turnover in brackets.

23.41 (29,453)Q1 2007-08
27.53 (33,402)Q2 2007-08
55.66 (35,880)Q3 2007-08
26.91 (38,697)Q4 2007-08 = Rs 133.51

28.27 (43,050)Q1 2008-09

Now assuming that the advance tax YOY has gone upo by 5% indicates that the earning per share for the next quarter will be close to Rs 30.00 per share. So cannot see the EPS YOY for 2008-09 to be less than Rs 120/- per share. So your assumptions appear to be out by at least 20% since you are assuming a LOSS of over 30% for Reliance!

Also the turnover has gone up to an impressive 43,000 crores.

Also predictions witnessed on this board of Reliance at 1800 then 1650 then 1500 and then 1000 based on DELIVERED PE of 10 (ie Rs 100 EPS x 10) are quite baseless and based on GREAT PESSIMISM. The problem is that when experts and experienced boarders on this MMB make statements without relying on fundamentals can drag down the markets and then the pessimism could become reality. One can see the way the ineterviews on CNBC-TV18 can drag the market down on news based reactions. This is since bringing the markets down will enable for the perople in the KNOW to buy cheaply at a time of their choosing. Due to FIIs exitting it is easy to play on sentiments of the Indian investors as if something is horribly wrong with our fundamentals.

One fine day when the voices become positive the retail investors out there are not going to get a chance since the market will shoot up by 10% - 15% or even 20% when these guys are going to tell you to buy and then after the RETAIL investors have boutght at this level they will call it a RELIEF rally in a BEAR market and the market will tumble again to the extent of bad news global as well as domestic and or both are overplayed!

Dear marketman I sincerely request you to explain why you think the EPS will be only Rs 100 (DELIVERED) and even if so why it cannot be at least 135 going forward in 2008-09. My WORST case scenario is that the EPS will remain at Rs 133 provided the gas production gets further delayed and the next year the stock should cover MINIMUM Rs 180 to a max of Rs 250 due to oil and gas production. In growth terms the stock must rise phenomenally!

That is why I keep saying that the pessimism ingrained in individual Indians clearly show lack of courage, entrepreuship and leadership. On ground zero I dont see much of slowdown as much as the market is reacting. If you are in business assess your OWN business to come to an educated conclusion. Example the REAL estate prices are in reality at the most stagnant only large projects where heavy capital has been borrowed by major companies appear to be in problems which now appear to be short term. Finance Ministry first announced that increase in interest rates going forward is ruled out, then thay have reduced the CRR Rate. Seeing that the commodity markets are crashing all over RBI may soon take a bold step in cutting interest rates drastically as a show of leadeship which I keep talking about.

All markets have been peculiar. Oil crashed from 147 to 87 in relatively less time than our markets crashed 44%. Same is with other commodities. Now the US$ vs INR is high due to FIIs exitting our markets but once this stops Rupee will start appreciating and FII inflows are bound to restart.

We would all have been inconvenienced by 9 to 12 months and for that small inconvenience we are taking out vengeance on ourselves by selling stocks at such cheap prices! Let the FIIs exit at a loss why should we.

If we have confidence and faith in our own markets so will the FIIs and they will be back for sure once they stabilise and now that almost all the bad news imaginable is out in the open we all can take appropriate calls.