Dear me2 4 india,
Dear friend, first of all let me congratulate you and thank you for READING my messages, you are one step ahead of other readers as you have also done edit copy paste , not only that, you have also spared your valuable time in ANALYZING my messages, have tried to understand what i meant in my messages, have even tried to point out where i may be wrong according to your analysis of my messages, i very much welcome such effort as i have written many times in past, CRITICISM always helps me to SHARPEN my skills.
Friends who wish good always tell you when you are on wrong path or thinking .
Now,
1. I started writing here on mmb in year 2003.
2. This is just a blog where people like you and me with many others write their VIEWS at GIVEN POINT OF TIME.
3. Such write ups are views only, they are NEVER RULES or GOSPELS, while reading them ONE must remember this always that ONE SHALL NOT BLINDLY RELY UPON OR TRUST any message by any boarder, one shall never act upon any message, one must invest own time and energy before taking any decision.
4. You may have missed my yearly charts and other posts of last year.
5. The TURNINGS were posted WELL IN ADVANCE, many readers still remember and were asking for more.
6. Whatever is happening today was ALREADY POSTED MONTHS AGO VERY CLEARLY IN PLAIN WORDS by me.
7. Since this is tech board and assuming you have basic tech knowledge,
Bse 30 index monthly chart last 20 years - macd - has topped out -will make LOWER TOP - THEN at that time tops of year 2008 will be touched or crossed - this is called NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE - please read about divergences as they are forgotten by most chartists conveniently when minds are biased.
8. I reiterate MOTHER OF ALL BULL RUNS IS IN THE MAKING .
9. October 2008 to February 2009 i EXPECT RALLY - target bse30 index 12000-13786-15000, current value 10530 thus probable return 20 to 50 % in next 5 months , with downside risk 9236 to 9445 bse 30 index , 10 % is more than acceptable for me.
more later,
take care, do not play f and o,
Avoid extrapolation, people always fall for that trap , when bse 30 was 21k, everyone was convinced it was going to touch 40k soon but now when it is at 10 odd k, people have started talking about 4k !
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari...

Dear shakti,
Thank you for your appreciation and compliments.
Another fellow gujjubhai Narendra Modi has shown what GUJARAT and GUJARATIS stand for.
We are always there to help, to eliminate any negative thoughts, to offer SOLUTION to any problem.
When one is willing to work hard and when one is not harming anyone to achieve his or her goals, GOD ALWAYS HELPS.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari...

Dear Ajaybhai,

Jai Shree Krishna to you.
Hope you are fine and healthy.
BUYING TIME IS ON.
From here onwards that is from 13 Oct 2008 to 17 Oct 2008 week onwards RISK TO REWARD ratio is in favour of BULLS.
Most probable week of turning and i am just amused to see many analysts SUDDENLY realising and remembering 1929 times !
BUY ANYTHING YOU LIKED LAST YEAR, especially GEMS which are yet to SHINE.
Remember the golden rule.Buy above-sell below opn with stoploss at open.
You were the only one who had put my theory in practical by excel software.
Market will IMPROVE NOW ONWARDS TOWARDS FEBRUARY 2009, evenif and inspite of everything .
wish you profits and peace of mind,
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
...

Dear Friends,
Since last few messages i have been trying to tel all my readers that SIGNIFICANT bottom is in the making . Sep End message shows 3 weeks to go.
3 Oct message says 2 week to go.
8 Oct message says 5 trading days to go.
now 2 days out of those 5 days are already over and REMAINING 3 days are, 13 Oct to 15 Oct 2008.
Like that song singh is king, this gujju is master of TURNINGS by now.
Grace of God.
Thus my friends, CURRENT DOWNMOVE IN STOCKS WILL END in 13 to 15 OCT 2008 PERIOD.
Some friends will remember when crude wasat 148 usd yours truly had posted that it will not rise anymore from that level, today it is below 100, around 80-90 range.
SELL GOLD which is at 14000 RS for 10 gram level today.
SELL USD which is at 48.5-49INR level today.
SELL REALESTATE which is at alltime high level and has just started to tumble- in my city AHMEDABAD rates - residential property 3200 Rs per sq ft in my area are still same but no buyers anymore at those rates thus stagnant market waiting for downward price adjustments in coming years.
ENCASH YOUR fixed deposit and switch over to STOCKS NOW.
Oct07 to Jan 08 I had written here to encash from stocks and prefer fixed deposit now that trade MUST BE REVERSED, reenter stocks now as they will yield more than 10 % return from current levels in next one year period. Thus a better choice .
Now coming to EXTENT OF FALL POSSIBLE-
Bse30 can touch 9236 level in panic.
Basis of this target 1980/4546 x 21206 that is theory Vipul Lashkari , comaring 1992 April to 1993 April to Oct 2007 to Oct 2008 price change for bse 30 index will give probable target of 9236 for bse 30 index.
We are at 10525 bse 30 index level as on 10 Oct 2008 friday close.
Thus 12.25 % away from possible and probable bottom.
14 rsi is still pointing south in daily chart but is at very low value, it will make bottom - higher bottom formation during monday 13 oct to wednesday 15 oct 2008 , thus POSITIVE divergence will ENSURE END OF CURRENT DOWNMOVE, stoch will also GIVE BUY SIGNAL by line crossover , indicator cutting moving average line from below.
Whatever you buy now, HOLD TILL FEB 2009 - sell in budget expectation RALLY -15 OCT 2008 to 13 FEB 2009.
I expect 20 % return on investment for one who INVESTS NOW IN STOCKS in this period - conservative estimate, 30 to 40 % return practical estimate and above 50 % return OPERATOR`s estimate.
Stability will return in world markets by 5 to 19 Nov 2008 and then onwards UPMOVE is expected.
Warm regards
Vipul Lashkari...

Dear Friends,
Do not get shocked.
I am definitely not writing from home for mentally retarded people.
This is my own personal view based on my limited knowledge and study of INDIAN stock market.
Call it Vipul Lashkari Theory if you want to name it.
Forget this message after reading it if you do not like it, if you see any LOGIC in it, just save it or print it for FUTURE use.

Indian stock market has seen ups and downs with periods of high volatility and sideways moves called corrections.

Basic theme is GROWTH.
Basic assumption is we will continue to grow for next 15 years.
Bse 30 index has made alltime high of 21206 and Nifty50 has made alltime high of around 6500 in January 2008 .
From there today on 9 October 2008 we are at bse30 10740 low and nifty50 around 3300 low made on 8 Oct 2008.
My theory is,

We have touched significant bottom .
We will be in sideways move now onwards.
Extreme short term we will see significant upmove till last week of 2009 January or 1st week of February 2009 from current lows.

In next 18 months time that is, by April 2010 we will observe DOUBLE TOP formation in nifty 50 and bse 30 index.
Then onwards we will have sideways move for FEW YEARS .

Next top will be 33000 for nifty50 and 107400 for bse 30 index by year 2023-2024. That is 15 years away from today.
Basic theme is, we will have periods of inflation and recession but ultimately higher level of prices will come.
Ask your grandpa if he is still there , what was price of gold or 1 acre land or 100 kg wheat.
The lower levels which prices leave behind, have never come back.
After corrections there is always a new high .
Trillion dollar question is , how to play these periods.
My view is, RIDE THE TREND.
How ! Answer is, follow basic rules.
Buy above open with stoploss at open, sell below open with stoploss at open .
Apply it to yearly charts, quarterly charts, monthly charts, weekly and daily charts for long, medium, short and extreme short term plays.
Simple 3 period moving average should also be your guide, its value and direction will help you.
Think about return on investnment if your money if invested at 10 percent return per annum compounded yearly , 100 rs will become 417.72 rs at end of 15 years. a 4 times return whereas this theory suggests 10 times return.
Think about it.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari ...

Dear sam_pd,
A hint for you dear friend.
Bse 30 index April 1992 to March 1993 period monthly chart formation and scenario and Oct 07 to Oct 08 .
The sideways move formation of multiple tops and then breakout from that zone.
4500 to 1980 then 4600 tops and then run towards 21206.
macd yet to show negative divergence in monthly chart , at present facing south, stoch below 20 and in highly oversold zone, rsi also poised for STABILITY NOW ONWARDS.
Yearly charts 2008 below 3966 nifty 50 and 13786 bse30 we are in yearly evening star formation . As trading below year 2006 close.
warm regards
Vipul Lashkari...

Tring tring dear sneh72,
Just came from garba and dishes of fafda and jalebi. The choice is as if one is choosing between one`s two children , one has EQUAL LOVE for both. Wish they GROW to become WELLKNOWN later.
Both are good and look too hot in terms of probable percent return on investment in next 3 years from their current price 9.85 silani and 8 silind. Both has probable targets in 3 digits in next 3 to 5 years 2012-2013 period to be precise. A probable 1000 % ROI !
There is much more HIDDEN than which appears on websites in terms of its networth.
silani check bse website regarding gdr and pref allotment to promoters.
silind also bse website announcements show new fund infusion and steps towards GROWTH.
Debt is almost nil so better bet than many other stocks.
Today it was like buffet dinner which we enjoy during marriages , many counters to choose from as per one`s choice, like that english song little bit of monica on my side . and also coldrin ad , yeh kya haal bana rakkha hai, kuchh lete kyun nahi .

warm regards
Vipul Lashkari
...

Well Sir, U might have predicted the fall years ahead but thats nonetheless useful to ur readers because u changed ur mind at 2008 tops, And coming to charts I wud like to say something different, reading the charts of Japan`s Nikkeie before 1990 crash, many wud not have said that Nikkei was going to fall at 10K by 2008, because if that wud have being the case Nikkei wud have been at 10K in 1992 itself, So well I dont look at the charts in short term to get a long term view, well I dont even look at the charts of the Sensex to get a long term view (because of the little history associated), If i feel the bottom is near and I shud cover my shorts, I go out and look at Dow Jones historic charts, I look at Nikkie and Nasdaq charts and then only I look at sensex charts, and well the 2008 top that I had said was not by looking at Sensex but looking at Dow Jones, KLSE, Phillipenes Index, Nikkie Charts, so my theory might be right or wrong but it practically worked, Now with this theory I say Gold has target of 1400 US dollars for the Long term top. Lastly Shishupal commited 100 crime towards Shrikrishna before he got killed, The world Markets (Please dont say Economy, or Economy for all) have committed I feel 100 crimes towards Savers, Tax Payers, Poor Public and finally they are close to being get killed, Well I might be wrong and this may be the 99th instance only, with one more top remaining, but the charts wud definitely signal that, the first small signal might be sensex breaching 13K, big signal might be sensex breaching 15K. So well if that happens stop hamerring let shishupal commit one more crime. Oh again last words, NarendraJi Modi is a great leader, If he wud being PM we might not have being hand in glove of US, he might have created real growth, not the growth in the sensex....

Dear amarakbar Today sentiment is going to be good. DII investors are in shopping mood. TA amy not give clue at present condition. People are perdicting events based on globle trend. But Inidan economy is strong and that is going to be exibited to the whole world today aahoo...

Hi, Vipulbhai, JSK, hope you all are fine and healthy. Love to kids...and JSK to all other members. Today I visited MMB after much gap..so I thought let me start with VL`s Post !! warm regards, Ajaybhai...

Here are some Ur`s Truly earlier predictions Urs Truly had predicted (20 Dec 2007, then complete U turn) Dear Friends, Today on 20 december 2007 we are just 2 weeks away from monthly and quarterly and yearly CLOSE which is VERY important for any share or commodity or index and therefore must not be ignored completely in EUPHORIA. Larsen and Toubro LNT and BHEL and RIL leading three shares show in their monthly charts POSSIBLE formation of an EVENING STAR - END of BULLRUN SIGNAL- RNRL and RPL etc many monthly charts are showing signs of weakness. Prices have started trading below simple 3 month moving average levels in some shares . If close is below these levels then a possible corrective phase is ALREADY ON which may last 3-5-8-13 months and maybe more. WISDOM which is rare these days says one must disinvest from leading counters where such chart patterns are appearing which shows weakness and should invest proceeds in fixed income assets (I say Dear Friends please highlight the Names RIL, RPL, RNRL are said to disinvest over here, now lets see what is in store in the next message) And well complete U TURN on 28 DEC 07 Dear friend, It is an ageold practice. Whenever market rises or drops, people NEED REASON . Oh, now this is the reason ! like that. Actual reason is selling and buying by the smart ones. I am expecting some DRAMATIC move BASED ON CHART PATTERNS in WHOLE RIL - BOTH BROTHERS - GROUP- maybe a gift or tribute from them to their late father - the legendary gujju Dhirubhai Ambani. Mad possibilities are, RPL 510-558 and RNRL 260-360 Maybe i am wrong but just have a look at their weekly stoch and similar pattern in recent past ! Many had doubts but ,both brothers have proved they are BETTER than their father- look at marketcap of combined group today and compare it with marketcap when Dhirubhai was there ! Their best gift to their late father. Whatever people may say , i am always proud of fellow GUJARATIS . warm regards as always And well on 29 DEC 08 In the year 2008 if any panic selling takes place in rpl or rnrl their panic supports are , Company panic support cmp target 2 years upto 2010 rpl 120 223 510-558 rnrl 81 178 260-360 Now the Complete U Turn on the Whole market Dear Bearcartel, My view at present is, Yearly open of year 2008 - the 1 Jan open will be pivotal point for whole year. For Wipro it is 522 trend is definitely up and target 576 Jan-Mar08 first quarter. For others, POSSIBILITIES ARE, SrnoName PivotalPoint Yearly tgt 1stQuarterly tgt Jan08 tgt 1. Bse30index 20325 27838 23010 21268 2. RPL 225 383.6 300.60 242.45 3. RNRL 183 335.35 280.9 206.55 4. RIL 2890 4386 3372 2982 Dear Chartlover friends, From the data available, astrological formations, announcements, here is what may happen- Indian Stock market- MONTHLY CHART 1. January 2008 Big bull candle Reason : Budget anticipations, Decqtr result announcements 2. February 2008 BIG BEAR CANDLE Reason : FII shorting the market, liquidity requirements, profitbooking at higher levels - prebudget profitbooking- Usually when february budget is expected to be good, rally begins in nov-dec and ends in Jan end/feb beginning , makes bottom , makes lower top on budget day when actual announcements come, rises again in march . FII permitted to short from 1 Feb 2008 and if ACTUALLY market comes down from then onwards, BEARS will also join enthusiastically to cover losses made in last 5 years , result will be weak february close. At that timeYEARLY OPEN will act as pivotal point and NOV07 close as stoploss for bulls. If march 2008 behaves as expected , MAD BULLRUN will take market to absurd levels- as mentioned in my recent messages- bse 30 index 26000-31000 RIL 3400-3800 etc BE CAREFUL ALL FRIENDS, warm regards Vipul Lashkari 3. March 2008 Big bull candle making sandwich pattern, bearish february sandwiched between bullish Jan- Mar. ...

Fear and panic trump good economic news as loonie, markets pounded TORONTO — Just about every financial and economic indicator in Canada tumbled hard Friday, as ever-deepening uncertainty spread like a red stain through the international marketplace. The loonie and Canadian markets took historic hammerings as fear of a looming global recession sank oil prices, gold prices and almost every sector of the Toronto stock market, taking the shine off good employment news and new government help for the big banks. "This is clearly a crisis and it is pervasive," said BMO economist Sherry Cooper. "There`s no ending of anything that`s happening right now. Things are happening very quickly." The loonie suffered its biggest drop ever, at one point falling 4.78 cents to 82.50 cents US and sliding under 83 cents for the first time since early 2003. It recovered somewhat to trade down 3.79 cents at 83.49 cents US later in the afternoon. The currency has dropped nine per cent this week alone and has now fallen almost 28 cents since hitting an all-time peak of 110.3 cents US last November. Meanwhile, the Toronto Stock Exchange fell about 500 points, dipping for a while below 9,000 for the first time since January 2005. In the United States, the Dow Jones industrials dropped more than 150 points, the index passing below 8,000 points before staging a weak late-day rally. "Extreme risk aversion" rattled the financial markets despite increased rescue efforts by governments all over the world to calm investors and consumers, said Derek Burleton, a TD Bank economist. "While... a lot of the government steps that have been taken will eventually contribute to the restoration of some confidence, right now the market is still in panic mode," said Burleton. "There`s just so much selling going on that it`s feeding on itself and it`s driving more selling. We`re seeing flight out of any kind of what`s perceived to be higher-risk currency and into what`s perceived to be those of lower risk, such as U.S. dollar assets, U.S. dollar government bonds." The loonie`s descent, however, is good news for battered Canadian manufacturers, who have been hit hard by the currency`s rise in the last two years. But it makes imports of everything from fruit and vegetables to machinery more expensive and will likely cause many Canadians to reconsider vacations to the U.S. southern states this winter. The Canadian market has been hit hard by a plunge in oil prices, as crude dropped $8.89 to US$77.70. That drop signalled some good news - further declines in gasoline prices for Canadian consumers - but also raised worries about the impact on the Western Canadian oilpatch. Major oilsands expansions could be delayed or scaled back if crude prices fall further and companies can`t raise the billions of dollars needed for the projects. "Oil is mirroring the stock market right now," said Phil Flynn, energy analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "There`s a total lack of confidence. It`s fear driving more fear." The slumping currency and oil prices Friday took the shine from other more positive news on the Canadian economy. In Ottawa, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced that Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is buying up to $25 billion in mortgage-backed securities from the country`s banks in an effort to pump more credit into the economy. Shortly afterwards, the big banks cut their prime rates again, good news for people with lines of credit, consumer and car loans and flexible-rate mortgages. CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld called it "a big step in the right direction for the Canadian banking system." He said it will help banks that otherwise were facing punitive interest rates in the term debt market. "It will also help borrowers in Canada that otherwise would face those additional costs being passed on." CONT..... ...

Gujju Bhai, keep up the good work. regards shakti...

In the long term we are all dead....