best time to go long at present price as we have been watching the market trend all these weeks....

Rep. Barney Frank, the chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, said he plans legislation to restrict the Federal Reserve`s emergency lending powers and subject the central bank to a -complete audit.- At a recent town hall meeting, Frank said the House would pass a bill to use an audit to crack open the central bank`s books more widely, but in a way that will not encroach on the central bank`s monetary policy independence. In addition, he said the House would move to rein in the authority that allows the Fed to lend to a wide range of non-bank firms in -unusual and exigent circumstances.- A bill sponsored by Texas Republican Rep. Ron Paul that would allow the Government Accountability Office, a federal watchdog agency, to audit Fed interest-rate decisions has won the co-sponsorship of more than half of the House. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has warned that the bill would compromise the U.S. central bank`s policy-making independence and could undermine financial markets and the economy. Frank said he has been working with Paul on compromise language. -He agrees that we don`t want to have the audit appear as if it is influencing monetary policy because that would be inflationary,- Frank told constituents. A video of his remarks was posted on the popular video file-sharing website YouTube here . Steven Adamske, a spokesman for Frank, told Reuters compromise language had not yet been written. He provided no further details. A spokesman for Paul could not be reached. OCTOBER TARGET Frank said the audit and emergency lending provisions would be incorporated in broader legislation to revamp U.S. financial regulation that would likely pass the House in October. By seeking a compromise with Paul, Frank could strengthen the broader legislation`s chance at passage. As chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Frank is a key player in the effort to overhaul U.S. financial regulation. The Obama administration has proposed giving the Fed responsibility for overseeing firms whose collapse could endanger the entire financial system. At the same time, it wants to strip the central bank of its consumer protection function, and invest that authority in a new agency. Frank expressed unease at what he called the Fed`s power to -lend money to anybody they want- in emergency circumstances. -We are going to curtail that lending power. We are going to put some restraints on it,- he said. Since the financial crisis struck two years, the Fed has used this emergency authority to prop up a number of non-bank financial firms with billions of dollars in loans, including insurer American International Group. The Fed`s actions have angered many lawmakers who are concerned the central bank has put taxpayer money at risk. Fed officials have defended their actions as necessary to prevent a deeper credit crisis and widespread damage to the economy. Bernanke, who President Barack Obama nominated this week to serve a second four-year term at the helm of the central bank, told lawmakers in July that the Fed understands the need to be accountable to taxpayers but that monetary policy decisions needed to be shielded from political interference. In congressional testimony on July 22, he signaled a willingness to work toward a middle ground. -We are quite willing to work with Congress to try to figure out exactly where the line should be,- he said. Frank said the House legislation would pave the way for an audit to look into what the central bank -buys and sells,- but he said the data would be released after a period of several months to avoid impacting financial markets. Bernanke is widely expected to win needed Senate backing for a new term as Fed chairman, but the central bank`s aggressive efforts to stem the financial crisis have stirred controversy that is likely to color his re-nomination hearing. His current term expires on January 31, 2010. ...

Hi All, Stocks which were given in last few days and didnot jumped earlier has jumped yesterday... It include TV-18 which jumped 9% and still can go up by another 5-10%. Also ICSA, DHCL gave big moves yesterday.. For today Buy EKC @ 189 TGT 198,205,225 in coming days with SL of 183.. For nifty trader.. As the direction of nifty is not sure where it will move in coming days because nifty has already moved 300 points in 5 sessions and is holding.. but we cannot expect it to go up daily but as new series is coming up therefore the momentum can continue... at the same time the new series could be used to change the momentum... Therefore my strategy would be at 4650 nifty is Buy 4600 calls 3 lots @ 200 and sell 5 lots of 5000 call @ 55... At the same time Buy 4700 3 puts @ 200 and sell 4300 5 puts @ 55.. Net investment would be 32500 but at the same time as we r buying 4600 call and also 4700 put therefore we have already locked 15000 in that and therefore net investment would be counted as 17500 for both calls and puts... Which means if market moves in one direction then the money at risk is around 9000 which we can cover by covering our calls or puts and start selling other strike price options.. Now if we assume that Nifty has fallen by 200-250 points which will bring it to near 4400 or 4350 at that point the we can lock our profits by buying 4300 call in the same quantity we have 4600 call i.e 3 and we can sell our 4600 call... We can also sell extra calls so that the money invested in buying the 4300 calls at that time would be nearly 0 and thus locking the entire profit of 60000 (or 45000 if you buying 4400 call) .. If nifty moves more further then we can adjust the locking of profits by changing the strike price... We are selling 2 extra calls and puts but as time will go there value will decline and even if market reaches at that strike price by the time it reach there the net loss would be less and we can cover the extra call or put we sold... And even if we take a 10 to 15K loss on the extra sell our profis would be decent... If market moves up instead of going down which everyone is expecting that nifty will touch 5000 then we can simply do the reverse trade.. where we can buy 5000 puts and book losses from 4700 puts but selling more puts to cover the amount we r paying for 5000 put.. The strategy looks very complex but it can give returns independent of market direction... Regards, Deepak ...

B RANBAXY@312 TGT 320,328,335 SL 302 B PANTALOONR@300 TGT 309,318,325 SL 290 B ICSA@175 TGT 182,188,196 SL 169 deepakkukreja@yahoo. com (messenger id) ...

Posting it again and adding all the prolific boarders so that we can have a more fair discussion.. Hi All, I went throught one of the article on a website stating about the Baltic Dry Index and how it has a little equity markets have a lagging effect following the Baltic dry index. to explain the theory in detail on nifty (it works on all world index but taking nifty e.g) just see the two graphs below.. bloomberg. com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND ( see the graph for 3 years) nseindia. com/marketinfo/charting/HistIndexChart.jsp?indexname=S%26P+CNX+NIFTY&StartDate=01-11-2007&EndDate=23-08-2009&charttype=HIST_INDEX (Nifty graph from Nov 2007 till date) Now if you see closely you will find that nifty was trading above 5500 and went upto 6200 by 10th Jan 2008 but if we see the Baltic Dry index it has already started correcting from Nov 2007 from the peak of 11000 to around 7500 levels by 12th Jan which was nearly more then 40% correction on the index and both Nifty and the Index peaked togather on the downside on 29th Jan where Nifty also moved to 4500 levels and also Baltic dry index moved to 5900 levels... So it started early but both of them peaked togather around 30th Jan.. similiar patterns is also available from Jan 2009 when the world markets were actually trading in a range but Baltic dry index doubled from 900 levels to 2100 levels by 6th March 2009 and after which the rally on all the world index started by the same month... And again if we see both Nifty and baltic dry index peaked around 1st week of june and since then Nifty is still holding the range above 4400-4500 but Baltic dry index has already corrected from 4300 levels to 2450 levels and still in a downward slope... If the slope continues then going by the history there will be a big fall on all the index coming in next 2 months and again we can get a point where both of the index will peak togather on the downside... also as it has a history of showing what is coming in future then for all the world index to gain strenth the Baltic Dry index has to move back to June peak of 2009 levels of around 4300 and trade above that levels so that even the nifty and other world markets can trade above its highs of 4700 and corresponding levels on other world markets... So I would be very closely watching this corelation before thinking of going long on nifty and stocks.. Would like you to go through the corelation and put your valuable comments.. Regards, Deepak ...

Mr.right-hand of ADA group, You know very well that RPL has merged with RIL and approved by High Court only about a week ago. The accounts of RPL has to be integrated with RIL, eligible shareholders of RPL have to be allotted RIL shares and only thereafter the dividend decision can be taken....

Funny different folks look at different things as subsidies as per their liking... The one who takes the cake though are the clowns at CII who talk endlessly on farm and fertilizer subsidy... These clowns do not even understand what a subsidy means... Subsidy clearly means a grant or a largess... When a company pays minimum alternate tax... The subsidy is to the extent of normal tax minus the MAT... which was at 10% till recently... When a farmer gets fertilizer at a lower cost includes subsidy... When a sugar mill is able to dictate cane prices thanks to archaic rules of the government and make humongous profits, subsidy is involved... When an individual gets tax exemption for buying a house or paying rent or buying medicines or investing under 80c ... he gets a subsidy to that extent... If you start listing all items you would probably have about 25% of the 10 lakh crores given away as subsidy... So if we do indeed need to stop we might as well... But in the process also ensure just returns... For example to the farmer... To me this is one budget issue... Another is personal income tax... This to me has never worked in India... So why even have it ? Just abolishing it would save so much in terms of salaries paid to useless staff of IT dept and release huge land banks in prime areas... This can be regrouped by other means in a very simple manner... We need to look at what has worked and improved it rather than try and fix what is not working... To give an example... If one retains dud stocks he is never going to make money of it even 50 years from now... IT is like a dud stock... So what has performed best ? Excise... Then after this customs... Then service tax... So look at a basket outside the Personal income tax... I know some would claim what about corporate tax... Unfortunately since tax amout is huge they cannot have this luxury... LOL... To me these sort of things are the radically different way of preparing a budget rather than increasing allocation by a desired percentage to do nothing... To give an example... When I went to Tali in TN the other day on some work... I found guys working on digging up a trench along the road... I did inquire and found that it took 1 day to dig about a 100 feet which was 2 feet wide and 2 feet deep... This needed 40 people... Now do a simple arithmetic... It cost 4000 bucks to dig 100*2*2 = 400 cubic feet... My swimming pool at the farm is 10 feet deep... 40 feet wide and 70 feet long... That comes to 28,000 cubic feet... It took a JCB a total of 6 hours... JCB rental is 650 bucks an hour... So it came to... 3900 bucks... So while NREG scheme got digging done at 10 bucks a cubic feet, a JCB would have done the same at 0.14 bucks a cubic feet... So NREG scheme gets done at 70 times the price of JCB... Is this the way tax payers money needs to be spent ? Incidentally if govt calls for a tender they would probably get a JCB at 400 bucks an hour so clearly digging up trenches manually would be 100 times more expensive than with a JCB ! And more money gets allocated for this... And clowns from CII claim rural spending will increase... What useless way of spending OUR HARD EARNED money... Cheers......

Markets to retrace its recent high by 30%, before moving up again. So 17300 shuold retrace to 12500 approx before new bull run takes place. Come Dec 2009 and this level will be reached.
Last bull run market retraced from 12000 to 8500, before the bull run continued. Same trend likely to be followed, the new base index could be 12400/500. The bull run will atleast double (2.4 times) the low taking Sensex to 25000 to 30000 in 2 years....

The markets are correcting? so where is he bottom. 15000? 12000? or beyond?

The realty bubble will burst sooner than expected. DLF at 125? unitech at 35? Will not be too surprising in next 3 to 6 months.

PSU`s banks are totally overrated. Till governement decides to reduce its stake below controlling level growth and price rise will be stunted. Many need to merge to bring efficiency.

Metals are in trouble if manufacturing is hit. Services Telcos are already in trouble on several counts. Fudged suscriber details are rampant. The numbers in fact are less that a third of what is claimed. Hence lower revenues. Incentive in terms of lower prices to induce higher usage of services has its limits. Result lower revenues and vanishing bottomlines.

Exports an area of major concern has been hit severely. What is gained is squeezed out by ever increasing manipulated Oil prices.

Reliance brothers another major issue that drives people nuts for no reasons. Mukesh and Anil are foolish and stupid as they drive their networth down and investors confidence alongwith.

Enemy at the borders are in no way improving the economy, hitting it hard at the wrong time.

Politics is a shame on Indian democracy. Accomodating corrupt persons is a norm rather than exception

So where does that leave a common man in india? to the mercy of mother nature and God`s grace.

Long live the Indian democracy....
...

proces to go sub 200 level soon...

The markets are correcting? so where is he bottom. 15000? 12000? or beyond?

The realty bubble will burst sooner than expected. DLF at 125? unitech at 35? Will not be too surprising in next 3 to 6 months.

PSU`s banks are totally overrated. Till governement decides to reduce its stake below controlling level growth and price rise will be stunted. Many need to merge to bring efficiency.

Metals are in trouble if manufacturing is hit. Services Telcos are already in trouble on several counts. Fudged suscriber details are rampant. The numbers in fact are less that a third of what is claimed. Hence lower revenues. Incentive in terms of lower prices to induce higher usage of services has its limits. Result lower revenues and vanishing bottomlines.

Exports an area of major concern has been hit severely. What is gained is squeezed out by ever increasing manipulated Oil prices.

Reliance brothers another major issue that drives people nuts for no reasons. Mukesh and Anil are foolish and stupid as they drive their networth down and investors confidence alongwith.

Enemy at the borders are in no way improving the economy, hitting it hard at the wrong time.

Politics is a shame on Indian democracy. Accomodating corrupt persons is a norm rather than exception

So where does that leave a common man in india? to the mercy of mother nature and God`s grace.

Long live the Indian democracy....

Probably they are the only stocks that will sustain profits and grow in comming years....

Oil likely to touch 100 by DEc 2009, the stock market rally signals begining of the end. The larger than life crises to hit the world by qtr 3 next year. Some stocks have already peaked and are on the decline. Some stocks peak during the rally at low volumes and will face sudden steep fall.
The telecom stocks have already moved downhill. The subscriber base is totally misrepresented by these companies. They only show new subs, but never give nos that have gone defunct. So is true for several other industries.

As is rightly said the flame is brightest before the extuinghment. But that is not the only issue now. The money spiral will make several currency worthless. Trade meaningless, as Mark Mobious put it nicely the next generations can only survive if the learn to produce their own needs and live in some remote untouched place on earth. ...

No 13000 AND may not even stay there, 17000 is very wishful thinking...

Rally defies fundamentals. Logic is this rally can be due to impending polls - a feel good economy factor required for favouable pool results to ruling party.
The manifesto`s are retrograde in terms of reforms of all parties, and the govt. finances are precarious. The borrowing is multiplying without increase in revenue collections. The inflow of funds is if any is purely opportunistic. Joblosses are enormous. the profits in most companies are cooked up, and sops are beings misused to prop the balance sheets(like differing FX losses for 2 years.

The inflation figures are meaningless as divergence in WPI and CPI is ill-logical. The infrastructure projects are behind schedule or postponed indefinately. The corporate investments in international expansions by Tata`s /Birla`s are wiping the reserves of good companies like Tata steel.Tata motors/Hindalco -to a negative value. The borrowings are enormous and payment defaults cannot be ruled out. Smart manipulation of balance sheet in connivence with Auditors is rampant.

The housing market is yet to revive even with extensive interest rate cuts. One esxtimate puts defaults and foreclosures at over 5 lakh dwellings. The rents offered in new Malls are nil.

The Auto markets is dismal. The defaults galore. The worst is confiscating property is also very painful as there are no takers for such properties. Maybe the banks will start renting out these properties soon to recover maintenance atleast.

The commodities markets are languishing. The basic resources are limited, but processed goods like steel/Alu/copper are at all time low.
The spike in petro goods prices will bring the markets to unprecedented lows if crude price rise above avg of USD 50 (which is happenning). This perhaps the most manipulated market ruled by rich oil companies and dirtiest tricks will be played by them for enriching themselves.

The world dependance on crude has to reduce significantly in next few years in order to bring sanity in the markets. Over/ostentious consumptions by few (which is increasing in numbers) as economy develops, is making scarce resouces very costly.

The food grain production has decreased significantly over last decade making essential/basic food items very very dear. This is perhaps most damaging factor in the world economy.

With this scenerio how cans markets rally -unless it is manipulaed by all corcerned including the regulators and te regulated.

Providence save the world....

2690 is my expected target for nifty...

Satyam is just the begining, look out for all realestate, media, ADAG grp, Educomp, FT, ICICi`s etc and IPos of last 3/4 years, there will be plenty.

Invertors rn for your money, the tumble has just started.

Check all my previous mails. ...