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Earnings growth not as bad as in 2001 but worst is yet to come-Ashwin Ramarathinam
Posted by :
winwathTracked by: 0 Boarder
Senor Kotak....Very well written. I agree with all your points. Hats off to your patience for studying the movement of earnings now and way back in history.
Don`t you think there are two sides to your conclusion- refer your last line "cut a long story short" -
Another version could be:
Markets took a whacking of over 50% in 2001 from its peak on 25Feb, 2000 until its low on 21Sep, 2001. It consolidated between 850 and 1200 levels for almost 5 quarter since the low on 21Sep,2001.
It then took the market only 2 quarters to roar past the peak of 25Feb 2000.
With a 50% shaving in 2000-2001 our earnings went into a negative nose dive. Now, in 2008, even with a 50% + shaving, our earnigs have been reduced, but still hovering in the positive zone.
So it can also be intrepreted as we are in a better situation now than in 2000-2001-2003 down turn.
So what is to stop the Sensex from getting to 25K and Nifty to get to 7k in about 8-10 quarters - after all the foundation is stronger now than in the beginning of the decade.
Just another view point - :)
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In reply to:
Earnings growth not as bad as in 2001 but worst is yet to come-Ashwin Ramarathinam
Posted by :
KotakInvestment
Ashwin Ramarathinam:
How bad is the current earnings downturn compared with previous ones? The last time the world economy went into recession and India’s growth slowed substantially was in 2001. Before that, a combination of the impact of the Asian crisis and a credit crunch at home sent growth plummeting in the late 1990s. But so far this year, corporate profit growth has been well above the level in those downturns.
In order to check whether the current profit downturn is already worse than during the earlier periods, we compared the results of all listed firms in the Capitaline database (leaving out the oil companies because their losses skew the picture) in the September quarter with the results of all listed firms seven years ago, in the September 2001 quarter, during the depths of the previous downturn that followed the bursting of the dotcom bubble.
The results are eye-opening. All listed firms (ex-oil) posted an average net profit growth of 8.09% in the September quarter compared with the year-ago period. But seven years ago, in the September 2001 quarter, net profits of all listed firms fell by 22.03% from a year earlier. Incidentally, the rate of profit growth for the sample in the March 2001 quarter was -11.73%, in the June 2001 quarter 3.31%, and in the December 2001 quarter -9.91%. Even if we assume that the economy in 2008 is very different from the economy in 2001, the difference between growth in the last quarter and the contraction in the September 2001 quarter is too large. What that means is that downward earnings revisions still have a long way to go.
Broking firm Motilal Oswal recently revised its earnings estimates downwards with the Sensex companies now estimated to grow earnings per share (EPS) by 8.6% in FY09 and 16.9% in FY10. If the contribution from Reliance Industries Ltd’ new businesses is left out, EPS growth for FY10 is estimated at just 6%. The brokerage expects the Sensex companies to post EPS growth rate of a mere 3.4%, compared with 16.9% in the first half. That fits in with the sudden and sharp deterioration of the economic climate since September.
But earnings revisions are a moving target. For instance, Motilal Oswal’s target for the total EPS of the Sensex companies for FY10 fell from Rs1,309 in June to Rs1,259 in September and now to Rs1,061.
Similarly, profit growth estimates for the Sensex companies for FY10 at Citigroup Inc. have been revised downwards from 17.09% in September to 11.8% currently. With FY09 Sensex EPS growth estimated at 12.9%, Citigroup expects next year to be worse than the current one. That fits in with macro estimates, the latest one being Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s projection that gross domestic product (GDP) growth would slow from 6.7% in FY09 to 5.8% in FY10. Incidentally, 5.8% was also the GDP growth rate in FY02, which means the September 2001 quarter earnings contraction may not be far off the mark as a guide to current growth.
Nandan Chakraborty, head of research at Enam Securities, expects earnings to bottom out by the middle of next year.
The Mint analysis also throws up other interesting comparisons. Sales growth, for instance, at 27.54% for all firms (ex-oil) in the September 2008 quarter was much higher than in the September 2001 quarter, when sales contracted by 0.37% year-on-year. Since last quarter’s sales growth is largely the result of very high inflation, that should come down dramatically in the next few months.
Growth in “other income” is much lower now than in 2001, perhaps reflecting the impact the current downturn has had on the financial sector.
Growth in interest charges (67.7%) in the September 2008 quarter has also been much higher than the 2% growth recorded in the September 2001 quarter. The growth in depreciation, too, has been much more currently than in 2001, perhaps the result of a lot of capital expenditure by firms.
Indeed, the growth in depreciation charges is more or less the same as in the September 1998 quarter, which seems to indicate that industry will soon face the same excess capacity situation that existed after the capex boom of the late 1990s. Net profits for all listed firms (ex-oil) contracted by 17.1% in the September 1998 quarter.
To cut a long story short, the message from comparing the September quarter numbers with those of previous downturns is that the worst is yet to come.
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Toronto (IANS): In one of the biggest breakthroughs in astronomy, Canadian, American and British astronomers have captured the images of another solar system for the first time.
Though more than 200 planets in other solar systems have been detected so far through indirect studies of their gravitational pull on their parent star, astronomers have failed to capture their images till this discovery.
Using powerful telescopes at the Mauna Kea Observatories in Hawaii, the astronomers captured the images of three huge planets orbiting around a sun known as HR8799.
Barely visible to the naked eye, this new sun is about 1.5 times the mass of our sun. It is estimated to be only 60 million years old, much younger compared to our sun which is 4.57 billion years old.
The three planets orbiting it are estimated to be about 10 times the mass of Jupiter.
The researchers, led by astronomer Christian Marois of the National Research Council Canada, used advanced image-processing techniques to detect the three faint planets against the bright glare of their sun, said a Toronto University release Thursday.
"It`s amazing to have a picture showing not one but three planets," said project collaborator Bruce Macintosh of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California.
"The discovery of the HR 8799 system (the new solar system) is a crucial step on the road to the ultimate imaging of another earth," he said.
Further, infrared observations have also shown evidence of a massive disk of cold dust orbiting the newly discovered sun - much like our solar system`s dust disk which is produced by dust from the comets of the Kuiper Belt located just beyond the orbit of Neptune.
"HR 8799`s dust disk stands out as one of the most massive in orbit around any star within 300 light years of earth," said co-author Ben Zuckerman of the University of California in Los Angeles.
From the glow or luminosities of the HR 8799 system, the astronomers have calculated that the three planets have masses between five and thirteen times that of Jupiter.
The giant planets orbit their star at roughly 25, 40 and 70 times the distance between the earth and the sun, making the HR 8799 solar system a scaled-up version of our solar system, the astronomers said.
"Detailed comparison with theoretical models confirms that all three planets possess complex atmospheres with dusty clouds partially trapping and re-radiating the escaping heat," said astronomer and research team member Travis Barman of Lowell Observatory in Arizona.
Calling it a truly amazing discovery, David Larcener of Toronto University said, "surely astronomers from all around the world will be very busy over the next few years to figure out the most intricate details of this fascinating system."
The findings have been published in the Nov 13 online edition of international weekly Science.
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Indian-American management expert Anjan Mukherjee has been roped in by US President-elect Barack Obama into his transition team, the
fourth person from the community to be part of the 15-member high-profile group.
Mukherjee, a Managing Director of Corporate Private Equity group at Blackstone, has been appointed as one of the team leads in Economics and International Trade.
His appointment has been the latest one as three other Indian-Americans - Sonal Shah, Preeta Bansal and Nicholas Rathod - have already been inducted into Obama`s team.
Mukherjee has been involved in the execution of a number of investments in a wide range of industries.
He has received a BA from Harvard University where he graduated magna cum laude as a Harry S. Truman Scholar and an MBA from Harvard Business school.
Before joining Blackstone, he worked with Thomas H. Lee Company and Morgan Stanley & Co.
He has also worked at the Department of Education (in the Fund for the Improvement of Postsecondary Education) as well as the Brookings Institution.
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rvk41...
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Bush allays India`s concerns on `protectionist cocoon`
Washington, Nov 15 (PTI) In the face of India cautioning the West against protectionist policies to tide over global financial crisis, US President George W Bush today said world leaders have reaffirmed their faith in open markets and free trade.
"I am pleased that the leaders (of countries from 20 countries) reaffirmed the principles behind open markets and free trade," Bush said at the G20 Summit, allaying fears voiced by countries like India.
Ahead of the meeting, Finance Minister P Chidambaram who is accompanying Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for the meeting, has said, "The developed countries should not get into a protectionist cocoon in their anxiety to tide over the current crisis." Bush, who convened the meeting of heads of 20 nations to discuss steps to wriggle out of the financial upheaval, said, "One of the dangers during a crisis such as this is that people will start implementing protectionist policies." Besides Singh, British Premier Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Russian President Medvedev are among the world leaders participating in the one-day summit. PTI
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In reply to:
Job losses....
Posted by : sambala
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc plans to shed about 10 percent of its global workforce, a person familiar with the matter said Friday, as the bank tries to return to profitability and faces mounting criticism of Chief Executive Vikram Pandit.
The cuts could result in a loss of roughly 35,000 jobs, based on the bank`s reported 352,000-person workforce as of Sept 30. The cuts will be on top of the 23,000 jobs Citigroup has already slashed this year.
Additional reductions would come from layoffs, the sale of units and attrition, said the person.
Citigroup spokesman Michael Hanretta declined to comment. Pandit in a memo said he will host a "town hall" meeting for employees on November 17 at 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT), at which he plans to discuss the bank`s plans, including "the money we spend."
Since replacing Charles Prince as chief executive in December, Pandit has made cost-cutting a top priority and has announced plans to shed $400 billion of assets.
He has, however, faced growing and sometimes withering criticism from investors and others for failing to implement a workable turnaround plan for New York-based Citigroup.
This week, the bank`s shares fell below $10 for the first time since Sanford "Sandy" Weill in 1998 created Citigroup from the merger of Travelers Group Inc with Citicorp.
The bank`s shares closed up 7 cents at $9.52 in New York Stock Exchange trading, making it one of only two components of the Dow Jones industrial average to gain on a day when U.S. stocks suffered broad declines. Earlier in the day, the stock dropped to $8.80 and has now lost more than two-thirds of its value from $29.44 at the beginning of the year.
Citigroup`s market value is only about $52 billion, barely twice the $25 billion of capital it received from the U.S. Treasury Department`s new bank bailout plan.
"The current strategy has been in place for more than a decade," said William Smith, chief executive of Smith Asset Management Inc in New York, which owns Citigroup stock. "I don`t know how many more quarters we have to go through this."
TOUGH ROAD AHEAD
Like many rivals, the second-largest U.S. bank by assets faces growing credit losses now that many economies worldwide appear to be in recession.
But Citigroup is also constrained from growing at home, and Wells Fargo & Co last month derailed its attempt to buy Wachovia Corp and its $418.8 billion of deposits.
Citigroup has lost $20.3 billion in the last year, analysts expect it to lose money this quarter, and some analysts believe it may not be profitable in 2009.
The bank was cobbled together principally by Weill, who ceded control to Prince in 2003. But analysts believe Citigroup never invested enough in technology or to make the bank`s disparate parts work well together.
And Citigroup`s geographic diversity, including operations in more than 100 countries, is by some measures now a negative, as customers in Brazil, India and Mexico -- like many in the United States -- find it harder to keep up with their bills.
Pandit on Thursday bought 750,000 Citigroup common shares and 100,000 preferred shares -- the first time he has disclosed using his own money to buy the bank`s stock. He joined Citigroup in 2007 when he sold his hedge fund, Old Lane Partners LP, to the bank for an estimated $800 million.
Citigroup has this week also tried to set aside reports of dissension among its directors with the performance of Pandit and the bank`s chairman, Sir Win Bischoff.
"The board of directors and management are operating as one team," lead director Richard Parsons, who is also chairman of Time Warner Inc, said in a memo late Thursday to employees. "We are confident that the direction our management team has set is the right direction."
Citigroup disclosed on Friday that Pandit acquired 750,000 of the bank`s common shares and 100,000 preferred shares on November 13.
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First pictures of lunar surface clearer than those of other missions: ISRO
Bangalore, Nov 15 (PTI) The first pictures of the craters on lunar surface sent back by India`s moon probe mission which reached the moon last night are "much clearer", Indian Space Research Organization sources here said today.
Some of the craters clicked by the camera mounted on the Moon Impactor Probe are with five metre resolution, as against 15 metre resolution photos taken by moon missions of other countries, they said.
"We can see those craters more clearly", they said.
The sources said it would take almost a year before the entire lunar surface can be photographed.
The moon probe, which had India`s flag painted on it, had plummeted to a crash-landing at the moon`s south pole last night.
ISRO scientists would study the images and data sent back by the probe during its 25-minute descent to prepare for a future soft landing.
The video imaging system on the MIP took pictures of the moon`s surface, the altimeter measured the rate of descent of the probe and the mass spectrometer studied the extremely thin lunar atmosphere. PTI
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Chandrayaan lowered into final orbit
Posted by : sambala
KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, Fla. — The space shuttle Endeavour lighted the evening skies over Florida on Friday, rising beneath a brilliant moon as it raced toward the International Space Station.
The shuttle thundered off the launching pad at 7:55 p.m., hurtling through a high, thin bank of clouds that rippled and dispersed with its passing.
Its 15-day mission is devoted to construction on the $100 billion orbiting outpost. But while previous missions have often focused on adding modules or solar panels to the station, much of the equipment for this trip will transform the inside so that crew size can be doubled to six.
Michael T. Suffredini, the NASA station program manager, told reporters in a recent briefing that “when the crew leaves, the station won’t look any different on the outside, but it’ll be dramatically different on the inside.”
Shuttle missions are often delayed by technical problems or weather, but the preparations for this launching were smooth and relatively free of glitches.
Equipment headed to the station includes new sleeping quarters, a second toilet, a new exercise machine and equipment for generating oxygen. The 32,000-pound payload also includes a system to recycle water on the station, including urine, to produce purified water for drinking. The $250 million system is designed to recycle 93 percent of the water used on the station.
Sandra H. Magnus, who will begin a stay of several months on the station, said that while many people expressed revulsion at the recycling system, she laughed about the “yuck factor” because the purification would exceed that of most municipal water systems. “I don’t anticipate any problems with the purity of the water once we get this up and running correctly,” she said.
Donald R. Pettit, another of the Endeavour’s astronauts, lived on the station for five and a half months in 2002 and 2003. Dr. Pettit said equipment like the water recycling system was critical to long-term space exploration, since getting new water to an outpost on the Moon or Mars would be expensive and arduous. “I really think this is a key steppingstone for human beings to leave planet Earth,” he said.
The commander of this mission is Capt. Christopher J. Ferguson of the Navy, who is on his second shuttle mission. The pilot, Col. Eric A. Boe of the Air Force, will be on his first mission.
While some of the astronauts work to transfer cargo from shuttle to station, three members of the crew will engage in four spacewalks. Much of the work will be devoted to lubricating a balky rotary joint that helps keep the station’s solar arrays pointed at the sun. Two of the 10-foot-diameter joints turn the arrays.
Last year, mission managers noticed that the joint on the right side was vibrating and required greater-than-expected power to turn it. During this mission, the spacewalkers — Capt. Heidemarie Stefanyshyn-Piper of the Navy, Capt. Steve Bowen of the Navy and Lt. Col. Shane Kimbrough of the Army — will clean metal shavings from the joint and lubricate it thoroughly. They will lubricate the left-hand joint as well as a protective measure.
These are among the final missions of the space shuttles, whose program is scheduled to be wound down by 2010 to make way for a next-generation space program known as Constellation. The spaceships being developed for Constellation are designed to reach the station, but also to return astronauts to the Moon, explore near-Earth asteroids and even go to Mars.
Those craft, however, are not expected to begin flying before 2015. In the meantime, the United States will depend on Russia for passage to and from the station on Soyuz craft.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc plans to shed about 10 percent of its global workforce, a person familiar with the matter said Friday, as the bank tries to return to profitability and faces mounting criticism of Chief Executive Vikram Pandit.
The cuts could result in a loss of roughly 35,000 jobs, based on the bank`s reported 352,000-person workforce as of Sept 30. The cuts will be on top of the 23,000 jobs Citigroup has already slashed this year.
Additional reductions would come from layoffs, the sale of units and attrition, said the person.
Citigroup spokesman Michael Hanretta declined to comment. Pandit in a memo said he will host a "town hall" meeting for employees on November 17 at 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT), at which he plans to discuss the bank`s plans, including "the money we spend."
Since replacing Charles Prince as chief executive in December, Pandit has made cost-cutting a top priority and has announced plans to shed $400 billion of assets.
He has, however, faced growing and sometimes withering criticism from investors and others for failing to implement a workable turnaround plan for New York-based Citigroup.
This week, the bank`s shares fell below $10 for the first time since Sanford "Sandy" Weill in 1998 created Citigroup from the merger of Travelers Group Inc with Citicorp.
The bank`s shares closed up 7 cents at $9.52 in New York Stock Exchange trading, making it one of only two components of the Dow Jones industrial average to gain on a day when U.S. stocks suffered broad declines. Earlier in the day, the stock dropped to $8.80 and has now lost more than two-thirds of its value from $29.44 at the beginning of the year.
Citigroup`s market value is only about $52 billion, barely twice the $25 billion of capital it received from the U.S. Treasury Department`s new bank bailout plan.
"The current strategy has been in place for more than a decade," said William Smith, chief executive of Smith Asset Management Inc in New York, which owns Citigroup stock. "I don`t know how many more quarters we have to go through this."
TOUGH ROAD AHEAD
Like many rivals, the second-largest U.S. bank by assets faces growing credit losses now that many economies worldwide appear to be in recession.
But Citigroup is also constrained from growing at home, and Wells Fargo & Co last month derailed its attempt to buy Wachovia Corp and its $418.8 billion of deposits.
Citigroup has lost $20.3 billion in the last year, analysts expect it to lose money this quarter, and some analysts believe it may not be profitable in 2009.
The bank was cobbled together principally by Weill, who ceded control to Prince in 2003. But analysts believe Citigroup never invested enough in technology or to make the bank`s disparate parts work well together.
And Citigroup`s geographic diversity, including operations in more than 100 countries, is by some measures now a negative, as customers in Brazil, India and Mexico -- like many in the United States -- find it harder to keep up with their bills.
Pandit on Thursday bought 750,000 Citigroup common shares and 100,000 preferred shares -- the first time he has disclosed using his own money to buy the bank`s stock. He joined Citigroup in 2007 when he sold his hedge fund, Old Lane Partners LP, to the bank for an estimated $800 million.
Citigroup has this week also tried to set aside reports of dissension among its directors with the performance of Pandit and the bank`s chairman, Sir Win Bischoff.
"The board of directors and management are operating as one team," lead director Richard Parsons, who is also chairman of Time Warner Inc, said in a memo late Thursday to employees. "We are confident that the direction our management team has set is the right direction."
Citigroup disclosed on Friday that Pandit acquired 750,000 of the bank`s common shares and 100,000 preferred shares on November 13.
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In reply to:
Job losses....
Posted by : sambala
Sun Microsystems to lay off up to 6,000 workers
By announcing one of the biggest tech layoffs so far this year, Sun Microsystems on Friday bought more time for its effort to expand sales and show that a strategy built around open-source software can carry the struggling Santa Clara computer-maker out of the current recession and into profitability.
But analysts said the long-term prognosis is still uncertain for the venerable tech giant, which has been the subject of takeover speculation as its stock price plunged over the past year — even before the economy began battering other Silicon Valley companies.
Sun said Friday that it will lay off between 5,000 and 6,000 workers, more than 15 percent of its global workforce, over the next year. Sun also will reorganize its software business and merge some divisions into other operations. Rich Green, who has been Sun`s executive vice president for software since 2006, will leave the company.
The moves are a response both to the recent economic crunch, which has hit Sun harder than other tech firms, and to a longer-term trend in which customers are buying more lower-cost commodity systems and fewer of the high-end proprietary servers and systems that were Sun`s flagship products for many years.
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The Finance Minister, P Chidambaram has asked the US and Europe to “set their house in order” to reverse the impact of the financial crisis on economies worldwide and help capital to flow back to developing nations.
“If they (US and Europe) set their house in order, surely capital will flow back to developing countries,credit will flow back and things will be much better”, he said in an interview to a private television channel ahead of the G-20 Summit here.
The Minister further said, “What India wants is that the country where this crisis originated...the US and some countries in Europe must do all that is necessary to reverse the impact of the crisis of the global economy, especially the economies of the developing countries”.
Asked about the ways to encourage capital flow back to developing countries, Chidambaram said, “We do not have to do anything more. What we have had in place was enough to attract capital in the last three years. What is happening now is because of what is happening in their countries.”
For information,with regards
rvk41...
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Brokers and FIIs etc all use the market to make fast money. In the proceses market will lose retail investars. In India not even 5% of retail investors are there in the market. by making market sentiments nagetive and creating a panic in the market only u can make people afraid of the share market more and people already invested in the market will never comeback it is 100% sure. Even the media which suprted the market at 21 thoud levels by saing India`s growth story strong etc. what hppnd now...
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CNN-IBN
The moon is 3,84,400 km away from earth and on Friday, India became the fourth nation to have its flag flying on the moon`s surface when Chandrayaan-1`s Moon Impact Probe (MIP), with the Tricolour painted on it, touched down.
The 35-kg payload crash-landed on the lunar surface at around 2030 hrs IST. The MIP has started sending its first signals to Chandrayaan-1.
It also contains equipment which will help scientists design a lunar land rover for the upcoming Chandrayaan-2 mission.
The MIP is slightly smaller than an average TV cabinet. Inside the MIP there is a device to constantly check it`s height as it falls. Another device checks what the air on the moon is made of. There is even a video camera to photograph the moon from close range.
The photographs taken by the MIP will help Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) decide where to land India`s first moon rover, a few years from now.
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kitne day ki training hai
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SDI launch operations in India with Prometric
Posted by : MMB Messenger
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Yes markets is going to retest of October lows....
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We are in a financial melt down and this company is spending nearly Million( 15 Crore rupees) on a 1 ½ day event of wine and dine some clients at a fancy Disney resort in Orlando . Assuming 500 clients show up for this event , this will be about Rs 3 Lakhh rupess (00) per person for the event. As a share holder I am really upset about this. Who is responsible for this waste at the time of financial crisis.
Bollywood film stars are being sent all the way from India for the dance entertainment called Bollywood stars night. They could have used the locals from the Orlando night clubs for same dance and saved a boat load of money. They are probably in a better shape than some of the Bollywood stars.
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HCL Tech to host its Unstructure 2008 in Orlando
Posted by : MMB Messenger
HCL Technologies Fourth-Annual Global Meet ‘Unstructure’ to Generate Action Ideas for Businesses to be Sustainable in Tough Economic Times
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HCL Technologies Fourth-Annual Global Meet ‘Unstructure’ to Generate Action Ideas for Businesses to be Sustainable in Tough Economic Times...
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Sun Microsystems to lay off up to 6,000 workers
By announcing one of the biggest tech layoffs so far this year, Sun Microsystems on Friday bought more time for its effort to expand sales and show that a strategy built around open-source software can carry the struggling Santa Clara computer-maker out of the current recession and into profitability.
But analysts said the long-term prognosis is still uncertain for the venerable tech giant, which has been the subject of takeover speculation as its stock price plunged over the past year — even before the economy began battering other Silicon Valley companies.
Sun said Friday that it will lay off between 5,000 and 6,000 workers, more than 15 percent of its global workforce, over the next year. Sun also will reorganize its software business and merge some divisions into other operations. Rich Green, who has been Sun`s executive vice president for software since 2006, will leave the company.
The moves are a response both to the recent economic crunch, which has hit Sun harder than other tech firms, and to a longer-term trend in which customers are buying more lower-cost commodity systems and fewer of the high-end proprietary servers and systems that were Sun`s flagship products for many years.
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In reply to:
Job losses....
Posted by : marketman
Many indians loosing the jobs during this economic crisis....
Pfizer replacing US workers with indians....
PMO tells airlines to keepoff sackings....
Small mills sack 10000 in 3 months....
