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Reliance Industries
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by :
sanjay38000Tracked by: 0 Boarder
there is no prediction of bottom or the top. nifty had touched nearly 6300 in january.now it has touched low of 3198. it is clear that if nifty breaks 3125 and closed below that, than we shall go upto 1675 in 2009.
hence i was earlier saying that we can touch 1800.
some of the boarders were angry with me and written that 1800 never ....ever.
but one thing is quite understandable that we had reached 6300 from 800.
so it is obvious that anything can happen.
If we stays above 3125 for nearly 10 days than we can again go unto 4775.no doubt in 2009.
Regarding reliance if it goes above 1649.85 and stays above for 10 days than only we can go up to 2480 in the coming year. Otherwise we can go down to 820 levels. It looks difficult but anything can happen.
It has been calculated as per 50% downfall of the nifty.
But forget reality, private financials, energy, power, capital goods and some more sectors, which had corrected more than 80%. bcoz they will never go up to their earlier level.
So do not invest in those kinds of kachara stocks.
I think hotels, oil and gas, oil explorers, health and care, agricultures, biotech to outperform in the next run.
in these category-- reliance,aban offshore, hotel leela, Indian hotels, ranbaxy, sun pharma, and any new comers, itc, biocon ,monsanto, advanta. nath biotech, etc are the main stocks.
with regards
sanjay
...
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : vkk43
And that is the reality. Some investors hv already lost 80-90% of their investment. Those who are doing trading on borrowed funds, hv already lost their entire capital. Thanks. 
LOOT SAKO TO LOOT LO.
Posted by :
panasonicTracked by: 0 Boarder
fair price shop now open in NSE & BSE, The shop name is "loot mart" Stocks at 52 week low
Reliance Industries
Sterlite
HDIL
DLFUnitech
Suzlon
ICICI Bank
L&T
Satyam
Infosys
TCS
Wipro
Tata Motors. ...
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : vkk43Tracked by: 0 Boarder
And that is the reality. Some investors hv already lost 80-90% of their investment. Those who are doing trading on borrowed funds, hv already lost their entire capital. Thanks....
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : knair
vkk43,
thank you for your reply.
The last sentence "weakness is much more than what appears in the weakness of sensex" indicates the correct picture.
knair
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : vkk43Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Whatever u say is perfectly in order. However, as I understand that the financial market problems are likely to escalate to Europe as well in ST from US and in that case what we have to think is whether thereafter, we get into fresh problems from that or not. No doubt after FIIs selling is over, market is bound to gain sharply from that low level. We had faced such situations in the past also and after a while, everything was in order. So this time is also no exception, we could get better days ahead but not in the near term, as the problem this time seems to be deep rooted and is spread all around, not left to India alone. Thanks....
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by :
bhusbhac
A viewpoint and the probable botomming out signal - if the market has not already bottomed out and the oversold nature of our markets is almost directly linked to FII sell off the 90 billion US$ of the 280 billion dollars left in the markets there is some risk that around 50% of this is in danger of being liquidated. Hence at the rate the FIIs have sold off this may take 2 weeks or maximum one month. Then there will be NO SELLERS below that bottomed out price and the threat of FII exitting will be out of our calculations and we can make our fesh start from there.
Also positive triggers can be expected from our Finance Ministry nearly on a daily or even hourly basis from next week.
So fasten your seat belts we are off to a very volatile and rough ride immediately ahead. However it would be good for our markets to see the FII investment gone for the time being as it must and as it will because of their crisis. This action might also directly help staobilise thier ship since the decisions to exit must also be weighing heavily against them.
Anyway I hope we Indians assess the situation and bravely face it for whatever is in store. Somewhere there have to be silver linings and opportunities in these dark clouds I would appreciate views of boarders in this respect.
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : bhusbhacTracked by: 0 Boarder
A viewpoint and the probable botomming out signal - if the market has not already bottomed out and the oversold nature of our markets is almost directly linked to FII sell off the 90 billion US$ of the 280 billion dollars left in the markets there is some risk that around 50% of this is in danger of being liquidated. Hence at the rate the FIIs have sold off this may take 2 weeks or maximum one month. Then there will be NO SELLERS below that bottomed out price and the threat of FII exitting will be out of our calculations and we can make our fesh start from there.
Also positive triggers can be expected from our Finance Ministry nearly on a daily or even hourly basis from next week.
So fasten your seat belts we are off to a very volatile and rough ride immediately ahead. However it would be good for our markets to see the FII investment gone for the time being as it must and as it will because of their crisis. This action might also directly help staobilise thier ship since the decisions to exit must also be weighing heavily against them.
Anyway I hope we Indians assess the situation and bravely face it for whatever is in store. Somewhere there have to be silver linings and opportunities in these dark clouds I would appreciate views of boarders in this respect.
...
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : vkk43
Thanks for your views. U r right, nobody can predict as to when the bear market will end.
ICICI has already fallen a lot. Still weakness persists. L&T and Infy will remain weak going forward. L&T management has stated as per newspaper reports that they are facing problems in getting fresh orders. Infy guidance will make it weak also.
So far RIL is concerned, it has been relatively steady. Whether it will go to 999 or not, nothing can be said at this moment.
Of course sensex is not depicting correct picture of the market. Weakness is much more than what appears in the weakness of sensex.
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : knairTracked by: 0 Boarder
bhusbhac - No ifs and buts and no arguments.
I still mean that what sensex is showing is not the correct picture.
Sensex shows the number game that too depending upon 7-8 stocks. It goes up and down according to these stock movements. The mkt is having many other stocks also. Their performance will never be reflected whenever sensex shows its colours.
I agree with vkk43. The mkt is more weaker than what the sensex shows.
I am not interested in RIL falling below to 999 nor infy, L&T, airtel for that matter. I am holding stocks of some of them. When it performs well, I will get what I want - a gain. In case of vise versa, no problem. I will also face the situation like all others.
I like to have my smile on both situations.
knair...
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : bhusbhac
Dear knair - There are too many ifs in your arguments. The dangerous side is not that dangeous anymore. 50% downfall for the NIFTY from 6200+ was 3000+ points. A 50% fall from resent levels is a little over 1500.
Whatever has been lost because of our bullish nature is lost and bygone. For very loss of Rs 1,00,000/- we need to invest maximum Rs 1,00,000/- risk free. I expect this recovery within 12 months maybe it will extend to 24 months or a little more. We can exand our investment from the profits along the way. Then whatever we lost in the past the residue will also appreicate and that will be our windfall profit.
I am preparing for the market to go down well below 3000 because of the 90 billion US$ of the 280 billion US$ still in our markets. So who on this board will be giving out signals with proof and avidence? I still suggest a 20% projected investment on Monday and a further 20% on every level of 200 pts on NIFTY broken below 3000. You may be lucky if the market holds or keeps coming back at the current levels in case the NIFTY has bottomed out. So learn to recognise the bottomm when it happens and happen it MUST!
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : sankarcjTracked by: 0 Boarder
Yesteday when huge selling was happening, Mr.C.J.Mathews Sankarathil,MBA told the news man which appeared in the boarder that the market won\`t fall below 10000 levels. Exactly it happend and stayed above. But he continued to see further fall if mutual funds atars redemption.If it happens from Indian Mutual funds then the market may move to 9000 levles which will be holding the bottom space.He is so positive on Reliance shares.He see the RPL +ve if falling continues too.He was the one first said the RPL will cross Essaroil soon, it happend. In the coming bounces you may see the RPL crosses Cairn buy december 2009 and stand above 350 Rs.......
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : bhusbhac
Dear knair - There are too many ifs in your arguments. The dangerous side is not that dangeous anymore. 50% downfall for the NIFTY from 6200+ was 3000+ points. A 50% fall from resent levels is a little over 1500.
Whatever has been lost because of our bullish nature is lost and bygone. For very loss of Rs 1,00,000/- we need to invest maximum Rs 1,00,000/- risk free. I expect this recovery within 12 months maybe it will extend to 24 months or a little more. We can exand our investment from the profits along the way. Then whatever we lost in the past the residue will also appreicate and that will be our windfall profit.
I am preparing for the market to go down well below 3000 because of the 90 billion US$ of the 280 billion US$ still in our markets. So who on this board will be giving out signals with proof and avidence? I still suggest a 20% projected investment on Monday and a further 20% on every level of 200 pts on NIFTY broken below 3000. You may be lucky if the market holds or keeps coming back at the current levels in case the NIFTY has bottomed out. So learn to recognise the bottomm when it happens and happen it MUST!
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : bhusbhacTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear knair - There are too many ifs in your arguments. The dangerous side is not that dangeous anymore. 50% downfall for the NIFTY from 6200+ was 3000+ points. A 50% fall from resent levels is a little over 1500.
Whatever has been lost because of our bullish nature is lost and bygone. For very loss of Rs 1,00,000/- we need to invest maximum Rs 1,00,000/- risk free. I expect this recovery within 12 months maybe it will extend to 24 months or a little more. We can exand our investment from the profits along the way. Then whatever we lost in the past the residue will also appreicate and that will be our windfall profit.
I am preparing for the market to go down well below 3000 because of the 90 billion US$ of the 280 billion US$ still in our markets. So who on this board will be giving out signals with proof and avidence? I still suggest a 20% projected investment on Monday and a further 20% on every level of 200 pts on NIFTY broken below 3000. You may be lucky if the market holds or keeps coming back at the current levels in case the NIFTY has bottomed out. So learn to recognise the bottomm when it happens and happen it MUST!...
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : knair
vkk43,
No doubt that we are in bear mkt. Once we are in, getting out of it is not so an easy task. It may take time, time which nobody is sure of predicting.
As regards RIL, I will be a happy man if it not falls below 999. But if falls, we are nobody to stop it but to become a witness of it. A witness of seeing the mkt falling to 7500 level too.
We don`t want to see it, so we say that it is not going to happen.
But when it happens, it is to happen. If it does not happen, we got thousands of panic sellers ready to make it happen. The channels are bringing out sensationalised headlines. They are also selling, their products, in form of sensationalisation.
Let us come back to RIL. It is the strongest stock in the mkt. Its weightage is too high. Anything happens to it can make the mkt to be affected. ICICI fell from 1465 to 327. With it, mkt also fell to certain percentage. Both put together, they carry 30% weightage in the mkt fall. Another 3 more stocks- L&T, Infy and Airtel- also carry huge weightage and if they also fall, sensex can break the past records.
Sensex is seen with these stocks but they are not representing the real picture. But most of us are only looking into it?
The number game is dangerous.
knair
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : knairTracked by: 0 Boarder
vkk43,
thank you for your reply.
The last sentence "weakness is much more than what appears in the weakness of sensex" indicates the correct picture.
knair...
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : vkk43
Thanks for your views. U r right, nobody can predict as to when the bear market will end.
ICICI has already fallen a lot. Still weakness persists. L&T and Infy will remain weak going forward. L&T management has stated as per newspaper reports that they are facing problems in getting fresh orders. Infy guidance will make it weak also.
So far RIL is concerned, it has been relatively steady. Whether it will go to 999 or not, nothing can be said at this moment.
Of course sensex is not depicting correct picture of the market. Weakness is much more than what appears in the weakness of sensex.
RILTarget 1330 at 10 PE = Rs 133 EPS
Posted by : bhusbhacTracked by: 0 Boarder
Udayan Mukherjee stated that the current PE of RIL was around 15 and that typically bear markets tend to bottom out around 10 PE and in worst case 9 PE. There seems to be an error in reporting here since their own website shows the current PE at around 11 and RIL is definitely not the 9 PE class.
The EPS of RIL for 2007-08 was Rs 133 per share and so at 1330 it would strike the 10 PE DELIVERED! It would certainly translate to 9 PE for 2008-09. To be fair expect EPS of RIL for 2008-09 to be Rs 150 in which case the share price has certainly bottomed out in the current context. There have not been any block deals below the 1400 mark so this can be a minimum guidance valuation. On retail level Rs 1500 is much more than fair.
We have not assumed the new oil and gas production which is slated to start in the 4th quarter.
Now project a conservative growth of 20% over 2000-10 from a more than fair probability of 35% to 50%.
Whatever happens the annualised returns of RIL share value will not be less than 10% which any investor in India will be willing to take a chance for a probability that the share price will rise by 35% to 50% from the Indian point of view. There are going to be several positives that will be further released in our economy from the immediate future. Soon FIIs will have the safety factor assurance that they are waiting for.
Translated to the FII point of view a 10% minimum return with a further possibility that Indian Rupee might appreciate another 10% in the following year. So at any point of time once world markets stabilise RIL will minimum double to 3000.
RIL outperformed the NIFTY until the past ten sessions where RIL has underperformed due to the capitulation effect so on the way up there are lots of reasons that it will outperform the NIFTY.
So this message goes out to all the brave and courageous Indians to go ahead and buy. Risks at least on RIL is almost NIL as per the calcs above!
If someone can defeat the calculations above please do come on this board and present your arguments....
How good is Ballarpur Ind ?
Posted by :
sandbpTracked by: 0 Boarder
why to buy midcaps when u can get frontline stocks like Reliance,LT,BHEL,Bharti ,NTPC at very good valuations. ...
In reply to:
How good is Ballarpur Ind ?
Posted by : phk
gdutts,buy RICO AUTO,TIMEX,RELIANCE POWER,RNRL,at this price, FOR 18 months TO 2 YEARS//this is the tip i have((very good source))you may go for it if you fancy//good luck//PHK//
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : vkk43Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Thanks for your views. U r right, nobody can predict as to when the bear market will end.
ICICI has already fallen a lot. Still weakness persists. L&T and Infy will remain weak going forward. L&T management has stated as per newspaper reports that they are facing problems in getting fresh orders. Infy guidance will make it weak also.
So far RIL is concerned, it has been relatively steady. Whether it will go to 999 or not, nothing can be said at this moment.
Of course sensex is not depicting correct picture of the market. Weakness is much more than what appears in the weakness of sensex.
...
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : knair
vkk43,
No doubt that we are in bear mkt. Once we are in, getting out of it is not so an easy task. It may take time, time which nobody is sure of predicting.
As regards RIL, I will be a happy man if it not falls below 999. But if falls, we are nobody to stop it but to become a witness of it. A witness of seeing the mkt falling to 7500 level too.
We don`t want to see it, so we say that it is not going to happen.
But when it happens, it is to happen. If it does not happen, we got thousands of panic sellers ready to make it happen. The channels are bringing out sensationalised headlines. They are also selling, their products, in form of sensationalisation.
Let us come back to RIL. It is the strongest stock in the mkt. Its weightage is too high. Anything happens to it can make the mkt to be affected. ICICI fell from 1465 to 327. With it, mkt also fell to certain percentage. Both put together, they carry 30% weightage in the mkt fall. Another 3 more stocks- L&T, Infy and Airtel- also carry huge weightage and if they also fall, sensex can break the past records.
Sensex is seen with these stocks but they are not representing the real picture. But most of us are only looking into it?
The number game is dangerous.
knair
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : knairTracked by: 0 Boarder
vkk43,
No doubt that we are in bear mkt. Once we are in, getting out of it is not so an easy task. It may take time, time which nobody is sure of predicting.
As regards RIL, I will be a happy man if it not falls below 999. But if falls, we are nobody to stop it but to become a witness of it. A witness of seeing the mkt falling to 7500 level too.
We don`t want to see it, so we say that it is not going to happen.
But when it happens, it is to happen. If it does not happen, we got thousands of panic sellers ready to make it happen. The channels are bringing out sensationalised headlines. They are also selling, their products, in form of sensationalisation.
Let us come back to RIL. It is the strongest stock in the mkt. Its weightage is too high. Anything happens to it can make the mkt to be affected. ICICI fell from 1465 to 327. With it, mkt also fell to certain percentage. Both put together, they carry 30% weightage in the mkt fall. Another 3 more stocks- L&T, Infy and Airtel- also carry huge weightage and if they also fall, sensex can break the past records.
Sensex is seen with these stocks but they are not representing the real picture. But most of us are only looking into it?
The number game is dangerous.
knair
...
In reply to:
Relance may not fall below 1000....
Posted by : vkk43
U r quite right. RIL can again touch 1470/-. We are in bear market for sure.
Do Not Go Long if Market Recovers.
Posted by : kadiyaliTracked by: 0 Boarder
Do not take any fresh Long Positions in any stocks, even if market recovers during early part of next week. FII net outflow was Rs 7353 crores for the first 6 trading days of Oct 08 - an average of 1225 crore per day. This level of FII withdrawal is the highest in our stock market history. If market recovers next week, the FII will withdraw even more, thereby pulling down the market further. It is time not to be active in the market. Just hold on to your funds, and wait in the side lines....
WE ARE FUNDAMENTALLY VERY SOUND
Posted by : kadiyaliTracked by: 0 Boarder
BOUNCE BACK in a Bearish Market? No Way! It will take at least 18 months for the bearish sentiments to disappear in Indian stock market. But one thing will be certain. This worldwide bearish phase will be the shortest for India. For countries like USA, UK and other European nations, the bearish phase may continue for as much as 5 full years. To this extent one can say INDIA IS STRONG....
In reply to:
WE ARE FUNDAMENTALLY VERY SOUND
Posted by : basit222
INDIA IS A STRONG ECONOMY,BELIVE US WE ARE FUNDAMENTALLY VERY SOUND .TRUST INDIA ,TRUST FINANCE MINISTRY . DON`T PANIC WE WILL BOUNCE BACK.
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