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Kalidas
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06 Oct 2008 20:52
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06 Oct 2008 20:51
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for tally
Profit is yours if you take it. Book the profit in scrips in which you are in money and buy back same scrips in violent correction.
If RBI eased CRR, it is good thing. They should reduce rates rather than reducing CRR - reducing CRR does not enlarge credit, as most banks in India are anticipating tight money conditions ahead in inter bank market.
You should remain long on Gas stocks like Indraprashtha Gas, GAIL, GSPL, Petronet, and State Owned Refineries, Buy LIC HSG FINANCE when it corrects more in violent crash. When there are no bids for such counters, is the time to buy them at 20% lower circuits
I am not bullish for RIL - as I had mentioned before, this stock is hyped up and its real value should not be above Rs 900. It has long way to go down - but do not listen to me. Others were telling me that it will never go down and see it is collapsing.
Not because of fundamentals, but the shares of RIL must have been pledged by the promoters for their various projects. If the share value go down, they will get margin calls and if they can not meet thousands of crores of margin calls, their shares will be simply sold off in the market. That will cause the market to fall also because of their index weighting
Kalidas, Hong Kong
6-10-2008...
Profit is yours if you take it. Book the profit in scrips in which you are in money and buy back same scrips in violent correction.
If RBI eased CRR, it is good thing. They should reduce rates rather than reducing CRR - reducing CRR does not enlarge credit, as most banks in India are anticipating tight money conditions ahead in inter bank market.
You should remain long on Gas stocks like Indraprashtha Gas, GAIL, GSPL, Petronet, and State Owned Refineries, Buy LIC HSG FINANCE when it corrects more in violent crash. When there are no bids for such counters, is the time to buy them at 20% lower circuits
I am not bullish for RIL - as I had mentioned before, this stock is hyped up and its real value should not be above Rs 900. It has long way to go down - but do not listen to me. Others were telling me that it will never go down and see it is collapsing.
Not because of fundamentals, but the shares of RIL must have been pledged by the promoters for their various projects. If the share value go down, they will get margin calls and if they can not meet thousands of crores of margin calls, their shares will be simply sold off in the market. That will cause the market to fall also because of their index weighting
Kalidas, Hong Kong
6-10-2008...
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06 Oct 2008 20:41
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for slowhand22
Is liquidity in Indian market affected. it should not. Interest rates are very high now, so RBI has lot of leeway to reduce the interest rates.
Banking collapse has started already, this is what I was forecasting from 12 months onwards. US is heading towards Civil War, and I will not be surprised if national emergency is declared and election postponed.
Solution is already there, but the US Administration did not listen to me or respond to my letter. As I have stated before, I am the only person in the world who has solution to US problem. I am not boasting or not telling you out of ego. Whatever actions taken by Paulson and Bernanke are terribly wrong. They are printing their way out of the problem.
If they had listened to me earlier, they would have prevented all these collapses, in fact there could have been massive rally. I will release the letter at appropriate time.
Now that the situation has come out of hand, the solution will be more curative rather than preventive. it will hurt almost all, regardless of your country.
India will emerge strongest in the world. I am only worried about Rupee policy of the RBI and Government. They know that it has not worked for over 60 years, and they are still following the beaten path.
In India, most banks are nationalized, so there should not be any problem in Inter-bank lending. Nothing may happen to India, unless the Indian officials become super charged and panicky in which case they will hurt the nation. This is more likely to happen, if past is the indication.
Inflation is no longer a problem now - there is no money in the market. The present problem is liquidity. Indian government has most powerful tools in its armoury. The rates are inordinately high at about 10% for deposits. Even if the rates are progressively reduced by 5% in small steps of 0.5% for next 16 months, (0.5% per 2 months)
Further, next step will be to lower the taxation rate. These are all bullish scenario being set up by the present crisis. To be quite honest, I am super bullish at Indian prospect, but that time has to wait. You have to be stock specific.
A few months ago, I had asked for investing into HPCL (came down to 180), BPCL (came down to 230) when the Index was near 15000 or about. Today, the market is down to below 11000 or by about 35%, and the same stocks are up by 35% to 50% in less than 4 months.
At that time, there were many who were comparing Reliance (RPL) as best buy which was at about 172 to 192. Now it is at Rs 132, down 25%.
This is the difference between my recommendations and others blind loyalty to Ambanis, Tata, Birla, etc. I never attach myself to any stock, and allow my self to be conducted by the sheer logic and dispassionate analysis of any scrip or market.
Perhaps I am the only one today, who is superbullish about the Indian market, and you will see that in coming days.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
6-10-2008...
Is liquidity in Indian market affected. it should not. Interest rates are very high now, so RBI has lot of leeway to reduce the interest rates.
Banking collapse has started already, this is what I was forecasting from 12 months onwards. US is heading towards Civil War, and I will not be surprised if national emergency is declared and election postponed.
Solution is already there, but the US Administration did not listen to me or respond to my letter. As I have stated before, I am the only person in the world who has solution to US problem. I am not boasting or not telling you out of ego. Whatever actions taken by Paulson and Bernanke are terribly wrong. They are printing their way out of the problem.
If they had listened to me earlier, they would have prevented all these collapses, in fact there could have been massive rally. I will release the letter at appropriate time.
Now that the situation has come out of hand, the solution will be more curative rather than preventive. it will hurt almost all, regardless of your country.
India will emerge strongest in the world. I am only worried about Rupee policy of the RBI and Government. They know that it has not worked for over 60 years, and they are still following the beaten path.
In India, most banks are nationalized, so there should not be any problem in Inter-bank lending. Nothing may happen to India, unless the Indian officials become super charged and panicky in which case they will hurt the nation. This is more likely to happen, if past is the indication.
Inflation is no longer a problem now - there is no money in the market. The present problem is liquidity. Indian government has most powerful tools in its armoury. The rates are inordinately high at about 10% for deposits. Even if the rates are progressively reduced by 5% in small steps of 0.5% for next 16 months, (0.5% per 2 months)
Further, next step will be to lower the taxation rate. These are all bullish scenario being set up by the present crisis. To be quite honest, I am super bullish at Indian prospect, but that time has to wait. You have to be stock specific.
A few months ago, I had asked for investing into HPCL (came down to 180), BPCL (came down to 230) when the Index was near 15000 or about. Today, the market is down to below 11000 or by about 35%, and the same stocks are up by 35% to 50% in less than 4 months.
At that time, there were many who were comparing Reliance (RPL) as best buy which was at about 172 to 192. Now it is at Rs 132, down 25%.
This is the difference between my recommendations and others blind loyalty to Ambanis, Tata, Birla, etc. I never attach myself to any stock, and allow my self to be conducted by the sheer logic and dispassionate analysis of any scrip or market.
Perhaps I am the only one today, who is superbullish about the Indian market, and you will see that in coming days.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
6-10-2008...
Rating :
06 Oct 2008 10:40
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for drswastik
Banking collapse has begun. Even Japan has started withdrawing money from everywhere, this is why Japanese Yen despite Zero interest, is going up against US$, Euro, GBP, Aussie $ etc.
It is a home coming of all currencies. All foreign investments of FII will be liquidated either out of strategy, or requirements of funds redemption back home. It has nothing to do with the fundamental of individual companies.
When the banks collapse, the people will shift the money to treasury bonds. When they find that even treasury is useless, they buy only one thing - GOLD
WHERE IS IMF? Have you heard its name in such humongous crisis? Whenever there was crisis in Asia or Latin America, they were rushing here and there and offering many solutions on stringent terms. Now that their original mentor USA is in deep trouble, they do not utter even a single sentence.
Finally, after these currency and banks collapse, the world monetary system will be linked to Gold as standard. It may happen when the current crisis is fully played out.
Almost all troubled banks are nationalized. The only countries to come out strongly will be India (China too), France and Brazil.
India is very strongly positioned. It is least leveraged, almost all banks are already nationalized, so there will be no run on the banks, has over 30,000 tons of gold with private holders, people are now more literate now, and the country is blessed with well defined friendly weather. There is no better place than India. Most NRIs will start sending money to India from their banks (except perhaps Canada). If only RBI does not intervene to keep the rupee low, which is the most hazardous policy over decades - rupee should have been at Rs 26 now - that is biggest disincentive to NRIs
We can not predict the market even for tomorrow, so do not talk about 2010 and 2011 like an Astrologer.
Yes, one thing, The best opportunities for long term investment is coming in a few months. Brace it for that. If some FII withdraws the money from India that causes the loss of hundreds of points, that is more due to his weakness, or requirements back home, rather than the weakness of Indian economy.
It all depends how imaginative our PM and FM are. Being a good person is not enough. India needs leadership of highly imaginative persons who are relatively young (40+ to 55-) who can stay longer. We should not have leaders for whom we would have national holidays in a few years with flags hanging out at half mast.
Kalidas, Hong Kong`
6-10-2008...
Banking collapse has begun. Even Japan has started withdrawing money from everywhere, this is why Japanese Yen despite Zero interest, is going up against US$, Euro, GBP, Aussie $ etc.
It is a home coming of all currencies. All foreign investments of FII will be liquidated either out of strategy, or requirements of funds redemption back home. It has nothing to do with the fundamental of individual companies.
When the banks collapse, the people will shift the money to treasury bonds. When they find that even treasury is useless, they buy only one thing - GOLD
WHERE IS IMF? Have you heard its name in such humongous crisis? Whenever there was crisis in Asia or Latin America, they were rushing here and there and offering many solutions on stringent terms. Now that their original mentor USA is in deep trouble, they do not utter even a single sentence.
Finally, after these currency and banks collapse, the world monetary system will be linked to Gold as standard. It may happen when the current crisis is fully played out.
Almost all troubled banks are nationalized. The only countries to come out strongly will be India (China too), France and Brazil.
India is very strongly positioned. It is least leveraged, almost all banks are already nationalized, so there will be no run on the banks, has over 30,000 tons of gold with private holders, people are now more literate now, and the country is blessed with well defined friendly weather. There is no better place than India. Most NRIs will start sending money to India from their banks (except perhaps Canada). If only RBI does not intervene to keep the rupee low, which is the most hazardous policy over decades - rupee should have been at Rs 26 now - that is biggest disincentive to NRIs
We can not predict the market even for tomorrow, so do not talk about 2010 and 2011 like an Astrologer.
Yes, one thing, The best opportunities for long term investment is coming in a few months. Brace it for that. If some FII withdraws the money from India that causes the loss of hundreds of points, that is more due to his weakness, or requirements back home, rather than the weakness of Indian economy.
It all depends how imaginative our PM and FM are. Being a good person is not enough. India needs leadership of highly imaginative persons who are relatively young (40+ to 55-) who can stay longer. We should not have leaders for whom we would have national holidays in a few years with flags hanging out at half mast.
Kalidas, Hong Kong`
6-10-2008...
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06 Oct 2008 10:25
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for ysb
An excellent and intelligent question. Honestly, I never like a company or business leader who day in and out buys some or the other different companies or floats new ones not related to their core business. (This applies to Reliance group also).
Mittal invested in related business, but he never had that kind of money as projected. Most of the wealth of the tycoons are only on paper, their wealth goes up because their share prices go up in bull market. We therefore call them billionaire. They never disclose their personal liabilities.
The FORBES list of top 100 is nothing but a bogus list. They value the existing holding of the controlling shareholders by multiplying his stake x current stock price. How about his personal liabilities, that are never disclosed?
Whenever they buy new companies or float new ventures, they fund it not from their liquid cash, but borrow from their brokers or banks by pledging the shares of existing companies. The borrow in their personal capacity. When the situation like this comes, and their bankers issue Margin calls. If they can not meet (and they would not) the margin calls, the financing banks or broker sells out those shares in market or in private deal.
The real stature of Mittal will come out during this testing time. The persons like Mittal love debt more than anything else. His original venture Ispat, the main borrowing vehicle, is still neck deep in debt. But he is not longer liable, having migrated to London. (or ran away?)
When the debt crisis is in full swing, and metal prices are plummeting, his share values pledged as collaterals will also come down. He should get margin call from his bankers or brokers. If he can not meet them, his pledged securities will be sold off and all the mountains of debt will come to the light.
If he passed this test during these times, then he would be deemed to have real wealth. Until such time, watch his empire closely.
Tell me, which banker in India is going to lend Rs 4000 to 8000 crores to Anil Ambani`s Reliance Power, when they have no other assets and the plant is just on paper or under part execution? Obviously, he would have pledged the shares of his flagship companies like Reliance Communication, Reliance Capital etc. which he is not required to disclose under any act because these are his personal holdings.
Ratan Tata was a disciplined businessman in the past. But he had personal ego - Yeh kalka Chhokra Lakshmi Mittal, mere se hajaro miles aage nikal gaya. Main bhi kuchh bataa doon. (This yesterday`s boy has advanced several miles ahead of me. Let me also show the world that I am not anything less than him) So he bought Corus.
When I wrote against Ratan Tata on this subject, somewhere in December or January, everyone on this board pounced on me, how a person from cozy office in Hong Kong could write on Ratan Tata who is visionary and best businessman of India. I questioned his take over only one ground - he bought when the GBP was at highest, Steel prices were at highest, and stock prices at highest. how could he expect to make money. And where was he, when he could have bought Steel Authority of India which was trading at Rs 5 at the height of crisis a few years ago? The stock SAIL then went up to over Rs 160 or so. If he was so bullish on India, why did he become so foolish to go all the way to London to buy Corus that was 5 times the size of TISCO for which he did not have expertise or experience?
Refer my old write up on Ratan Tata if you can retrieve that from the Archive. It had full article on Ratan Tata.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
6-10-2008 ...
An excellent and intelligent question. Honestly, I never like a company or business leader who day in and out buys some or the other different companies or floats new ones not related to their core business. (This applies to Reliance group also).
Mittal invested in related business, but he never had that kind of money as projected. Most of the wealth of the tycoons are only on paper, their wealth goes up because their share prices go up in bull market. We therefore call them billionaire. They never disclose their personal liabilities.
The FORBES list of top 100 is nothing but a bogus list. They value the existing holding of the controlling shareholders by multiplying his stake x current stock price. How about his personal liabilities, that are never disclosed?
Whenever they buy new companies or float new ventures, they fund it not from their liquid cash, but borrow from their brokers or banks by pledging the shares of existing companies. The borrow in their personal capacity. When the situation like this comes, and their bankers issue Margin calls. If they can not meet (and they would not) the margin calls, the financing banks or broker sells out those shares in market or in private deal.
The real stature of Mittal will come out during this testing time. The persons like Mittal love debt more than anything else. His original venture Ispat, the main borrowing vehicle, is still neck deep in debt. But he is not longer liable, having migrated to London. (or ran away?)
When the debt crisis is in full swing, and metal prices are plummeting, his share values pledged as collaterals will also come down. He should get margin call from his bankers or brokers. If he can not meet them, his pledged securities will be sold off and all the mountains of debt will come to the light.
If he passed this test during these times, then he would be deemed to have real wealth. Until such time, watch his empire closely.
Tell me, which banker in India is going to lend Rs 4000 to 8000 crores to Anil Ambani`s Reliance Power, when they have no other assets and the plant is just on paper or under part execution? Obviously, he would have pledged the shares of his flagship companies like Reliance Communication, Reliance Capital etc. which he is not required to disclose under any act because these are his personal holdings.
Ratan Tata was a disciplined businessman in the past. But he had personal ego - Yeh kalka Chhokra Lakshmi Mittal, mere se hajaro miles aage nikal gaya. Main bhi kuchh bataa doon. (This yesterday`s boy has advanced several miles ahead of me. Let me also show the world that I am not anything less than him) So he bought Corus.
When I wrote against Ratan Tata on this subject, somewhere in December or January, everyone on this board pounced on me, how a person from cozy office in Hong Kong could write on Ratan Tata who is visionary and best businessman of India. I questioned his take over only one ground - he bought when the GBP was at highest, Steel prices were at highest, and stock prices at highest. how could he expect to make money. And where was he, when he could have bought Steel Authority of India which was trading at Rs 5 at the height of crisis a few years ago? The stock SAIL then went up to over Rs 160 or so. If he was so bullish on India, why did he become so foolish to go all the way to London to buy Corus that was 5 times the size of TISCO for which he did not have expertise or experience?
Refer my old write up on Ratan Tata if you can retrieve that from the Archive. It had full article on Ratan Tata.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
6-10-2008 ...
Rating :
05 Oct 2008 12:27
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04 Oct 2008 22:31
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for wbuffet001
I do not want to dispute you. You are paying too much attention on the write up of that Peter Heyward and the figures churned out by him. What is the source of his information. Has he quoted it?
I have already conducted research from the figures of BIS (Bank of INternational Settlement), US treasury, United Nations and IMF. I normally rely on figures that are authenticated by the reliable source.
UAE includes Abu Dhabi, so their funds is over US$ 1.375 trillions which is impossible. Their oil production is very low, and even if you count it for over 1 years, they come no where. Saudi, the major producer, produced 10 Mln barrels per day (mbpd). Even if you take average price of $ 80 for over one year (we are counting average), the monthly earning comes to $24 billions and for entire one year it comes to less than $300 billions. Other emirate countries produce just a fraction of what Saudi does, so their amount of $ 1.3 trillions sound debatable.
Further, China does not have official sovereign funds, their Forex reserve is over $ 1.8 trillions now. The countries like Saudi do not even figure amongs top 20 Forex holders in the world, that is a mystery. Russia has official Forex reserve over $500 billions of dollars and they too do not have Sovereign Funds ( I hope you are not mixing up Sovereign Funds with Forex reserve).
Here are the first top 14 nations holding FOREX reserve (Source IMF)The table may not be reproduced accurately, because this is text only forum
Country/Monetary Authority "FOREX Reserves
(millions of USD)" Figures as of
World (sum of all countries) $7,631,724 --
" People`s Republic of China... $1,808,828 Jun-08
Japan ........................$1,002,000 Jun-08
Russia.........................$ 574,300 Jul-08
" Eurozone .....................$ 563,426 Mar-08
India..........................$ 308,397 Jul-08
Republic of China (Taiwan).....$ 291,400 Jun-08
South Korea....................$ 258,200 May-08
Brazil........................ $ 200,231 Jun-08
Singapore......................$ 175,800 May-08
Hong Kong..................... $ 159,000 May-08
Germany....................... $ 143,942 Apr-08
Algeria........................$ 126,905 Mar-08
Malaysia.......................$ 124,600 Jun-08
France........................ $ 125,311 Feb-08
I do not mind even if some one quotes my article on MMB as itf it is their own. I just write for the benefit of MMB members. Do not forget that US is having prosperity of nearly 200 years. Their economy alone is worth $13 trillions. Americans do have money (their government may not have) just as Indians inspite of being poor, must behaving 30,000 tons of Gold (India imports about 800 tons of Gold every year and some portion may have been exported but very small)
Kalidas, Hong Kong
4-10-2008
...
I do not want to dispute you. You are paying too much attention on the write up of that Peter Heyward and the figures churned out by him. What is the source of his information. Has he quoted it?
I have already conducted research from the figures of BIS (Bank of INternational Settlement), US treasury, United Nations and IMF. I normally rely on figures that are authenticated by the reliable source.
UAE includes Abu Dhabi, so their funds is over US$ 1.375 trillions which is impossible. Their oil production is very low, and even if you count it for over 1 years, they come no where. Saudi, the major producer, produced 10 Mln barrels per day (mbpd). Even if you take average price of $ 80 for over one year (we are counting average), the monthly earning comes to $24 billions and for entire one year it comes to less than $300 billions. Other emirate countries produce just a fraction of what Saudi does, so their amount of $ 1.3 trillions sound debatable.
Further, China does not have official sovereign funds, their Forex reserve is over $ 1.8 trillions now. The countries like Saudi do not even figure amongs top 20 Forex holders in the world, that is a mystery. Russia has official Forex reserve over $500 billions of dollars and they too do not have Sovereign Funds ( I hope you are not mixing up Sovereign Funds with Forex reserve).
Here are the first top 14 nations holding FOREX reserve (Source IMF)The table may not be reproduced accurately, because this is text only forum
Country/Monetary Authority "FOREX Reserves
(millions of USD)" Figures as of
World (sum of all countries) $7,631,724 --
" People`s Republic of China... $1,808,828 Jun-08
Japan ........................$1,002,000 Jun-08
Russia.........................$ 574,300 Jul-08
" Eurozone .....................$ 563,426 Mar-08
India..........................$ 308,397 Jul-08
Republic of China (Taiwan).....$ 291,400 Jun-08
South Korea....................$ 258,200 May-08
Brazil........................ $ 200,231 Jun-08
Singapore......................$ 175,800 May-08
Hong Kong..................... $ 159,000 May-08
Germany....................... $ 143,942 Apr-08
Algeria........................$ 126,905 Mar-08
Malaysia.......................$ 124,600 Jun-08
France........................ $ 125,311 Feb-08
I do not mind even if some one quotes my article on MMB as itf it is their own. I just write for the benefit of MMB members. Do not forget that US is having prosperity of nearly 200 years. Their economy alone is worth $13 trillions. Americans do have money (their government may not have) just as Indians inspite of being poor, must behaving 30,000 tons of Gold (India imports about 800 tons of Gold every year and some portion may have been exported but very small)
Kalidas, Hong Kong
4-10-2008
...
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