Dear sd3 Honestly speaking 60B of Dubai World is quite small in comparison to the global scenario but wht we need to see from here is whether the problem is limited just to dubai & dubai world or entire middle east region? Nifty for the entire week was just consolidating in narrow range so big move had to be thr & Dubai just became the excuse for it being a down one. Cheers...

Today the perfect analyst was rudra_sinha. Very Good Now Monday opening Analysis. Considering the following Factor 1. Dollar Becomes Strong 2.Holiday in Dubai therefore full news r not covered 3.FII Investment r increase 4.Today closing 4941 5.Nifty Future at premium 6.Any factor that U know. My Opinion:- There is 2 holidays in between and in 2 days any thing can happen. But i m very bullish on mkt. I think our mkt has more positives than other. There a one good news and it can reachat there high level. Today recovering proves that. No one can exact say about monday opening. In my opinion Monday Mkt r opening in green and it can go up 5100 or above. please give ur views also. Thank You. ...

True 80 billion is just the tip of the ice berg. Dubai was and is a bigger bubble waiting to burst but that will be stalled as long as possible.Right now, as one friend (while i worked in Dubai) joked, the Sheikh can just dip his bucket into the oil well to draw out dollars. There is a lot of things under the carpet in the middle east. The fall of Dubai will come but not now. AbuDhabi and if required Saudi will not allow Dubai to fall not yet.Dubai is a showcase of a modernised, intelligent, booming middle eastern economy. Its only a myth though, under this cover all the worlds black money laundering, money routed for illegal activities from drugs to terrorism is routed thru Dubai. Dubai as a brand was built by Sheikh Rashid and Mohammed of Maktoum family. The internal dalliance /dependence of Dubai on Saudi, Abu Dhabi is a very strong one. Dubai by itself is not rich in oil reserves compared to Abudhabi has a very small share. That makes it dependent on AbuDhabi and Saudi which has a larger share, is bigger and more powerful than Abu Dhabi. Dubai has one advantage of being a trade hub. But beyond this they do not have any economically viable source of industry or commerce. The myth of Dubai is created thus They have/ can bring in money (from anysource legal europe or us to illegal money) to create myth of a Construction or Real estate boom. And to realise and sustain this theybring in labour and workers white collared from all over the world majorly second third rate europeans or americans at the top layer. Second layer majorly other middle easterners like Egyptians, lebanese, syrians etc (since they can speak arabic) third layer is filled asians like indians and pakistanis. the labourers are indians, pakistanis, bangladeshis and other third world people. These employed work force contribute majorly to the commerce in terms of retail buying at their malls and shopping. The work force and labourers need food, shelter and day to day amenities. So a smaller economy evolved of reatil sales and homes catering majorly to this segment. (The local or native arabs form less than 15% of the total population of UAE. Foreigners make up the rest of 85%). All the needs of food to furniture to vehicles are catered by importing from other countries, starting from Iran, egypt to spain - true to its name as a trading hub its difficult to find other places where stuff from such a large number of countries are available in one single country. Dubai can boast of this one single Factor that directly contributes to Dubai economy -Retail Sales. Dubai Shopping is not completely a myth as its difficult to find the range of international brands at one single place so many including people from russia, and other balkan countries like latvia and estonia come plane loads during winter for all things including shopping and OTHER entertainment and to make quick money. Deep down I could not see anything very fundamentally tangible that can fundamentally sustain to the country`s economy or growth. All that is seen is a spiral created by real estate boom and once this stops and the external population of UAE is cut by even 30-40% (as it has happend already) the economy will be (or already is) in doldrums. The rentals if they are an indication of their economy have fallen by half of its last 2 years high, and food and other prices have increased by 50%....

dear vuppala, What You See Is Not What You Get. regards...

dear sd3, The above example has nothing to do with RNRL in specific. Rather to identify some set patterns in today`s world. Let me elaborate a little bit. The actions which are proposed in the monetary policy lasts long till the time of new monetary policy comes in to the picture. So the result of a monetary policy is typically a short lived set pattern which any one can see. At the same time, stated objective and actions going in the opposite directions is a bigger pattern ( which many fail to identify) and is like a back ground process which is transparent to the user who is working on a client application but will be there forever unless system admin decides to set it right. Not having any hint or idea about the back ground processes can keep the users who have access only to a client process keeps them in dark about the slow performance of the server. Human mind is naturally capable of doing this pattern recognition and pattern matching. Now coming back to RNRL entering in to exploration and production is like a client application. System admin will have full privileges to control any client application and so are some back ground processes which may bypass even the inefficient system admin and can control the client application. Typically there will be some macro signals which emerge from time to time and give a hint or two about the destiny. Till then, doing any kind of research on that will only result in burdening the limited computing resources( read as human mind in this case-myself being with a slow and outdated processor naturally prefer not to burden my self and i am little averse to heavy weight applications with too many features and i prefer light weight and flawless applications though limited but essential features .I dont like deadlocks). regards ...

Aha sd3 80B is a BIG number for those bankrupt BANKs as many banks are struggling even to raise 5B! Think about it? :) what is going on in Middle East is larger part of Global BS GAME? :) Anyway, from financial perspective, the following article may give some more BS ideas lol ** .3 trillion backstop? Some estimates put the collateral backing up the USD80 billion to USD160 billion of debt, at USD1.3 trillion, although there are no details on how that was calculated. ** seekingalpha. com/article/174158-toward-economic-recovery-in-dubai marketoracle.co. uk/Article15148.html Enjoy the weekend! Gud luk & happy investing! :)...

Daer SD3 Fact of the matter is this problem was 3 months old i.e in Sep 09! The AbhuDhabi Sheik has already bailed Dubai out! Now it is for time to make it public! By Monday u will see the announcement of resolving the issue! ...

got it sir .

sd3....

:)

time being yes 80B is childs play ..

but is that all ? only 80 billion .

or there are more cockroaches under the carpet ...

sd3.....

I am waiting see the final answer sumit ...

(Will dubai incident mark end of this run up && beginning of the deep down trend )?

or

will it be like GM bankruptcy :up down up ?


sd3..

ps :
lets see what happens over the weekend .

Now am packing my bags for bangalore ...
3 years of gap... the city must have changed a lot ...

...

I admit sir ,
the flaw in the thought with which i put my post.

The Why and Why not`s .... thinking ..

WHY RNRL ? :)

sd3..

...

Yes yes ... its not only them .

Lets see .

sd3.....

Correction :

Dubai default , the news is clear wakeup call to anyone who believe that monitory crisis is over ....

Sir ,

The question is that of accepting the truth .

Dubai default , the news is clear wakeup call to anyone who believe that monitory crisis .

If we accpet that then this fall is too small ... very small indeed .

If we dont , like its happening now with just 3-4 % fall then we are back to square one .

The dubai news is nothing new . Its the same old story continued after the break .
Inflated real estate , leverage and so on .
This time its European banks for a change . After consuming all its oil it was simple to guess what was fuelling the economy of dubai state and making it the financial center it was celebrated to be .

However being a govt entity and also because of other production emirates like Abudhabi , sharjah or even neighbours like Qutar ,Duabi debt in its published numbers can be managed easily .



sd3..

...

:)

time being yes 80B is childs play ..

but is that all ? only 80 billion .

or there are more cockroaches under the carpet ...

sd3.....

If you cant book the losses then don`t play in stock markets .
If you cant handle criticism don`t express your views .
If you cant handle abuse don`t get into public forum .

It doesn`t matter how good or bad one is .
But being able to adjust to variety of people is essence of social living .

Quit if u wish to but let it be clear that there is no dignity in it !

Best of luck to all sincere souls .

sd3.....

Its not over S22g . Its going to haunt us .
Did AIG roll back its insurance on morg. defaults ?
Is GS less leveraged on interest rates swap than ever ?
Is US started to become Productions country ?
Has RBI got over its guilt of promoting Housing mania in India ? ... goes on ..

Assume for a second .. that EU is India and all its member are states .. and we see the hidden strength they have . May be they have to realize that they are capable of self sustained production and consumption .

The cumulative numbers on money printed are getting ugly day by day . Its going to hurt now on . I don`t see the some day will be so far ... in next decade .. i don`t .

Unless there is near WAR ... USD has to pay the price . A scenario where Oil , Gold , interest rates could surge in a day ... oh i remembered LIBOR in Oct2008 .
And markets would fall .... unless they convince us that 10 Rupee is new Paisa and milk is 100 Rs a liter ! .

This time the fight is with mathematics . The numbers are overwhelmingly lined up against treasury being auctioned . I wouldn`t be surprised to see some news from RBI on interest rates .

Look at gold its going to 1200 . Finding its new home between 1000-1200 :) .
Look at Drunken Dow ... what is it up for ?

leverage squeeze .. shall i coin a term ..
sd3.....

Sector : Auto makers .
Prices : High to life high
Earnings : Rising but over rated for short term

Name Market Cap P/E


Eicher Motors Ltd. 1,550.53 39.76
Ashok Leyland Ltd. 6,997.58 36.83
Tata Motors Ltd. 31,821.26 31.78
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 28,897.04 34.53
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 41,149.46 33.77
TVS Motor Company Ltd. 1,402.69 45.13
Bajaj Auto Ltd. 21,080.39 32.11
Hero Honda Motors Ltd. 30,325.54 23.66

Notes : Few truck companies excluded . Stock at record highs as well as rising to record sells . 4 wheeler is the new bike !
Tie ups done by many players so unlocking possible . Still a rate sensitive sector .
Many foreign player dominating auto scene and they are not listed on NSE lol

sd3..

End of Series ............. ...

I agree sir ,

Value stocks dint rise much recently .

If sm1 really has free shares like you he can wither any fall.
also , whats the point in investing if one has to really bother about market fluctuations ! .

I was talking of economics cycles . Somehow I am not convinced of the financial mess being solved .

Sir , If RBI tightens loans by 1-2 percent or say the FDI flow stock growing our GDP falls back to 3-4 percent . That`s the reality we have . How much do i then bet on my LT logic .
You know sir LT logic needs some sanity in the overall scenario . Else it robs us of any faith in system :( . This doesn`t look like the period of moderate innocence .
Thats why i opened the discussion with you.
For market fluctuation i revere stability of your mind .

sd3..
ps : Had bought the tokens in augest . Sujana at 55 and dena at 40 something . Its the RComs and Bharti that drag my % down .. lol . But my position sizing logic tells me to average it only after 40 % fall or rise , hence holding the cash .

ps2 : had bought suj after out chat . Wanted to put some money in it so that i track it in real time before making a big buy . Luck has it it doubled so fast :D...