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Moneycontrol >> Messageboard >> Market View >> Market Outlook - Short Term
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Market Outlook - Short Term

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08 Jan 2009 09:57

Mr. Udayan use to make visits of company during earning seasons and he is a known and master analyst then how he could not smell the fraud of Satyam. It is easy to do postmertum than to prevent the occurance of such unfortunate fraud?...

In reply to:

Satyam: A cleverly crafted scam

Posted by : honestytrack

Dear udayan,

you asked how satyam debacle should be handled by sebi from damodaran.

Ask him how he handled UTI rajalxmi scheme case when in UTI.

Ask the current chairman Bhave how they are checking balance sheets of companies showing free reserves within 4 years of incorporation
so huge amounts where the profits in combined no of years is not
even 10 percent of the reserves shown.

In banks a new account ( particularly savings current cash credit )
when opened for six months they follow very closely.

Ask Bhave what is his current practice when a new company is opened.

In banks when a Dormant account is reopened they monitor for many years . usually 2 years its operation.

Ask bhave what he does when Z category companies are bought and brought to b2 and b1. how much he monitors.

Sir everybody is hand in glove.

That is why i tell you in such a enviable position to be also a
bellboy ringing the sound of the bell.

Mod " you tried to bully some ones post here on teledata "

what i asked you was to weigh the posting on merits and not cowed down by threats from that company.

Sir let us all work together to safe guard peoples hard earned money.

Not just make nifty touch 6000.

humble request from me.

/HT/

08 Jan 2009 09:49

Here is politically well connected family. With our third rate politicians and beaurocrats the tactics used will be the same as what Pakistan is using against India, stonewalling and delaying, hoping for the famous short memory of the public.

The only solution is to go after the land held in the name of the entire family of Ramalinga Raju. He himself will probably spend a year in a 5-star hotel as punishment. Elections are near and the politicians are hungry....

In reply to:

Satyam disaster: Experts examine the remains

Posted by : MMB Messenger

It has been one of the darkest days in Indian Corporate History. Early this morning Mr. Raju the venerated promoter of Satyam Computers, one of India’s largest IT Companies dropped a bombshell when he sent a five page letter to the Stock Exchanges confessing one of the biggest frauds in Indian Corporate History.

08 Jan 2009 09:34

yes , yes in that also unscrupulous fellows like Raju will send fictitious mails with bankers name... and provide balance for past 10 years .. whatever the figure the balance sheet needs...

In reply to:

Is this a buffet stock? PVP Ventures

Posted by : WhatsUP

Radhika:

Satyam bankers as per 2004 annual reports are:

1. Bank of Baroda
2. BNP Paribas
3. Citibank NA
4. HDFC Bank Limited
5. ICICI Bank
6. Vijaya Bank

A call to the bankers can easily tell you how much money is in the company`s accounts.. 50,000 employees with approximately 50,000 per month salary is 250Cr per month.. so time is of great essence..

Also Satyam is operating in US most likely its going to be a lot of law suites for sure..

A good statement made by Mohandas Pai of infosys:

"All companies should make sure that bank balance confirmation goes directly to auditors."

This simple act is all that we needed.. dont know why such a basic activity as checking with the bankers to provide the bank balance for the past 4 quarter for satyam account would have been sufficient to see that 5000Cr are missing.

Anyway I have never bought any IT stock because of high PE ratios..

=happy investing.

08 Jan 2009 09:31

if you have the backing of govt, u can do anything legally or illegally and become hero or saviour etc......

In reply to:

Satyam: A cleverly crafted scam

Posted by : honestytrack

Dear udayan,

you asked how satyam debacle should be handled by sebi from damodaran.

Ask him how he handled UTI rajalxmi scheme case when in UTI.

Ask the current chairman Bhave how they are checking balance sheets of companies showing free reserves within 4 years of incorporation
so huge amounts where the profits in combined no of years is not
even 10 percent of the reserves shown.

In banks a new account ( particularly savings current cash credit )
when opened for six months they follow very closely.

Ask Bhave what is his current practice when a new company is opened.

In banks when a Dormant account is reopened they monitor for many years . usually 2 years its operation.

Ask bhave what he does when Z category companies are bought and brought to b2 and b1. how much he monitors.

Sir everybody is hand in glove.

That is why i tell you in such a enviable position to be also a
bellboy ringing the sound of the bell.

Mod " you tried to bully some ones post here on teledata "

what i asked you was to weigh the posting on merits and not cowed down by threats from that company.

Sir let us all work together to safe guard peoples hard earned money.

Not just make nifty touch 6000.

humble request from me.

/HT/

08 Jan 2009 09:31

if you have the backing of govt, u can do anything legally or illegally and become hero or saviour etc......

In reply to:

Satyam: A cleverly crafted scam

Posted by : honestytrack

Dear udayan,

you asked how satyam debacle should be handled by sebi from damodaran.

Ask him how he handled UTI rajalxmi scheme case when in UTI.

Ask the current chairman Bhave how they are checking balance sheets of companies showing free reserves within 4 years of incorporation
so huge amounts where the profits in combined no of years is not
even 10 percent of the reserves shown.

In banks a new account ( particularly savings current cash credit )
when opened for six months they follow very closely.

Ask Bhave what is his current practice when a new company is opened.

In banks when a Dormant account is reopened they monitor for many years . usually 2 years its operation.

Ask bhave what he does when Z category companies are bought and brought to b2 and b1. how much he monitors.

Sir everybody is hand in glove.

That is why i tell you in such a enviable position to be also a
bellboy ringing the sound of the bell.

Mod " you tried to bully some ones post here on teledata "

what i asked you was to weigh the posting on merits and not cowed down by threats from that company.

Sir let us all work together to safe guard peoples hard earned money.

Not just make nifty touch 6000.

humble request from me.

/HT/

08 Jan 2009 09:31

Radhika:

Satyam bankers as per 2004 annual reports are:

1. Bank of Baroda
2. BNP Paribas
3. Citibank NA
4. HDFC Bank Limited
5. ICICI Bank
6. Vijaya Bank

A call to the bankers can easily tell you how much money is in the company`s accounts.. 50,000 employees with approximately 50,000 per month salary is 250Cr per month.. so time is of great essence..

Also Satyam is operating in US most likely its going to be a lot of law suites for sure..

A good statement made by Mohandas Pai of infosys:

"All companies should make sure that bank balance confirmation goes directly to auditors."

This simple act is all that we needed.. dont know why such a basic activity as checking with the bankers to provide the bank balance for the past 4 quarter for satyam account would have been sufficient to see that 5000Cr are missing.

Anyway I have never bought any IT stock because of high PE ratios..

=happy investing.
...

In reply to:

Is this a buffet stock? PVP Ventures

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Whatsup,

Thanks a lot.. had u been the auditor of satyam you would have caught them redhanded.. lol. wonder how Price waterhouse was so naive or was in it collusion who knows. LOL

Thanks for Jayant Agro pick, i think even RAMGE suggested this.. i will put in my portfolio.

Thanks once again.

08 Jan 2009 09:23

It is SURPRISING, this holier than thou attitude adopted by CNBC and Mr. Udayan. Recall how the advance tax numbers were displayed...

Reliance pays on X crores advance tax as against Y last year.... Reliance stock falls substantially.... Then the flash that the higher outflow last year was on account of RPL stake sale, and the stock bounces back.

There are umpteen reports like these.... And they blame it on exchanges, that wires are despatched in pieces.. But does anything stop the channel from collating all the information before flashing it? Vested Interests?

And the channel and Mr. Udayan, who always keep flashing "news" from "unidentified sources", always fuelling speculation, call themselves responsible mediapersons, by taking bedfellows to task when their wrongdoings become public!!!

Long Live St. Udayan and CNBC!
...

In reply to:

Satyam: A cleverly crafted scam

Posted by : honestytrack

Dear udayan,

you asked how satyam debacle should be handled by sebi from damodaran.

Ask him how he handled UTI rajalxmi scheme case when in UTI.

Ask the current chairman Bhave how they are checking balance sheets of companies showing free reserves within 4 years of incorporation
so huge amounts where the profits in combined no of years is not
even 10 percent of the reserves shown.

In banks a new account ( particularly savings current cash credit )
when opened for six months they follow very closely.

Ask Bhave what is his current practice when a new company is opened.

In banks when a Dormant account is reopened they monitor for many years . usually 2 years its operation.

Ask bhave what he does when Z category companies are bought and brought to b2 and b1. how much he monitors.

Sir everybody is hand in glove.

That is why i tell you in such a enviable position to be also a
bellboy ringing the sound of the bell.

Mod " you tried to bully some ones post here on teledata "

what i asked you was to weigh the posting on merits and not cowed down by threats from that company.

Sir let us all work together to safe guard peoples hard earned money.

Not just make nifty touch 6000.

humble request from me.

/HT/

08 Jan 2009 09:19

ASPardesi:

Satyam has 50,000 employees and considering a monthly salary of 50,000 per month for all employees that`s 250Cr per month..

Best thing is to call the bankers..
I just checked the annual reports (2004) the bankers are:

1. Bank of Baroda
2. BNP Paribas
3. Citibank NA
4. HDFC Bank Limited
5. ICICI Bank
6. Vijaya Bank

It is best to not be adventurous and try to buy any satyam stock for now..(when there are better companies quoting at such great valuations)

=happy investing...

In reply to:

Satyam: A cleverly crafted scam

Posted by : aspardeshi

Firstly I would like to thank to the bottom line of Satyam, who kept the company running.

Satyam is a big fraud. Arrest the auditors also along with Raju. Auditors are the mirror of faith in any company. They certify the balance sheet after observing atleast the Bank Statement. They are talking about Maytas Deal not to make the situation soft, but to cover the scam. Thank god they did not make a deal with another company like Infosys. You know it is like I have acid and let us hug.

I just do not beleive, how the directors of the company were blank. It just cannot happen. It just cannot be a one man show. No one will beleive it.

Satyam should be valued in a couple of days time and the matter should be put in front of the shareholders with immediate effect along with the share valuations.

There is a desperate need to audit the system itself (I mean from Shareholders upto RBI and SEBI) and reframe the constraints wrt formation,audits of the companies and reporting to the government and shareholders. It is a real need of the time. One man cannot take the dreams of shareholders for a ride. What is the system doing ? There is also a need to bring up a rock solid judgements which will justify the shareholders confidence on a ongoing basis. How can Chartered Accounts certify this. It is really really not expected out of professionals like Chartered Accountants. The total system is running on the basis of CA`s. If they are in the crowd of scams, whom will the shareholders look forward ? What is the difference between a Gamble and Satyam ? Is the Industry a Pure Gamble.

I hope the shareholders and the government will decide it in a very short span of time. To conclude, I would like to say that whatever outcome may come, it should be in a position to be beleived, Not only now but always.

08 Jan 2009 09:16

dear HT,

super... Legt udyan reads this and asks this questions.. keep it up....

In reply to:

Satyam: A cleverly crafted scam

Posted by : honestytrack

Dear udayan,

you asked how satyam debacle should be handled by sebi from damodaran.

Ask him how he handled UTI rajalxmi scheme case when in UTI.

Ask the current chairman Bhave how they are checking balance sheets of companies showing free reserves within 4 years of incorporation
so huge amounts where the profits in combined no of years is not
even 10 percent of the reserves shown.

In banks a new account ( particularly savings current cash credit )
when opened for six months they follow very closely.

Ask Bhave what is his current practice when a new company is opened.

In banks when a Dormant account is reopened they monitor for many years . usually 2 years its operation.

Ask bhave what he does when Z category companies are bought and brought to b2 and b1. how much he monitors.

Sir everybody is hand in glove.

That is why i tell you in such a enviable position to be also a
bellboy ringing the sound of the bell.

Mod " you tried to bully some ones post here on teledata "

what i asked you was to weigh the posting on merits and not cowed down by threats from that company.

Sir let us all work together to safe guard peoples hard earned money.

Not just make nifty touch 6000.

humble request from me.

/HT/

08 Jan 2009 09:15

Very well said,dear honestytrack,it reflects our views too!...

In reply to:

Satyam: A cleverly crafted scam

Posted by : honestytrack

Dear udayan,

you asked how satyam debacle should be handled by sebi from damodaran.

Ask him how he handled UTI rajalxmi scheme case when in UTI.

Ask the current chairman Bhave how they are checking balance sheets of companies showing free reserves within 4 years of incorporation
so huge amounts where the profits in combined no of years is not
even 10 percent of the reserves shown.

In banks a new account ( particularly savings current cash credit )
when opened for six months they follow very closely.

Ask Bhave what is his current practice when a new company is opened.

In banks when a Dormant account is reopened they monitor for many years . usually 2 years its operation.

Ask bhave what he does when Z category companies are bought and brought to b2 and b1. how much he monitors.

Sir everybody is hand in glove.

That is why i tell you in such a enviable position to be also a
bellboy ringing the sound of the bell.

Mod " you tried to bully some ones post here on teledata "

what i asked you was to weigh the posting on merits and not cowed down by threats from that company.

Sir let us all work together to safe guard peoples hard earned money.

Not just make nifty touch 6000.

humble request from me.

/HT/

08 Jan 2009 08:54
View full thread (19 messages)

Tracked by: 1 Boarder

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Dear udayan,

you asked how satyam debacle should be handled by sebi from damodaran.

Ask him how he handled UTI rajalxmi scheme case when in UTI.

Ask the current chairman Bhave how they are checking balance sheets of companies showing free reserves within 4 years of incorporation
so huge amounts where the profits in combined no of years is not
even 10 percent of the reserves shown.

In banks a new account ( particularly savings current cash credit )
when opened for six months they follow very closely.

Ask Bhave what is his current practice when a new company is opened.

In banks when a Dormant account is reopened they monitor for many years . usually 2 years its operation.

Ask bhave what he does when Z category companies are bought and brought to b2 and b1. how much he monitors.

Sir everybody is hand in glove.

That is why i tell you in such a enviable position to be also a
bellboy ringing the sound of the bell.

Mod " you tried to bully some ones post here on teledata "

what i asked you was to weigh the posting on merits and not cowed down by threats from that company.

Sir let us all work together to safe guard peoples hard earned money.

Not just make nifty touch 6000.

humble request from me.

/HT/...

In reply to:

Satyam: A cleverly crafted scam

Posted by : Udayan Mukherjee

Ramalinga Raju, Chairman of Satyam has resigned from the board, reports CNBC-TV18. In his letter to the board, Raju admitted that the IT major's balance sheet has inflated cash and bank balance of Rs 5,040 crore. "No board member had any knowledge of the real situation. Accrued interest of Rs 376 crore in books is non-existent. Rs 1,230 crore was arranged to Satyam, but was not reflected in the books."

Here is a verbatim transcript of Udayan Mukherjee's comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

On shareholders of Satyam:

It was a very cleverly crafted scam. Not to overstate this because this is one company which has enacted a fraud on its shareholders and board of members, investors large and small but the temptation would be to now extrapolate that and to drive conclusions like the FII will now lose complete faith in every Indian corporate not knowing what to trust because these kind of frauds happen in every country.

So we don’t want to extrapolate this to a very dire situation where Satyam equals many other companies in India and therefore not to believe anything that is reported on the exchanges on a daily basis. That I think would be a complete and gross over reaction. So if you are asking whether this leads to a complete derating of the market, it may happen but it would in my eyes be a very extreme reaction because one bad apple does not mean that everything in the basket is rotten.

Having said that will it shake investor’s confidence? Absolutely and unequivocally yes, more than anything else that has shaken investor confidence. This is not one crooked stock broker scamming investors by leading them up and getting a line of finance from a bank, it is one of the country’s biggest companies; it is an index stock with a several billion dollar marketcap, it was thought just a few months back as one of the beacons of Indian IT and today the promoters come and said, everything that I shared with you was a complete scam. Do you think this will have no repercussions? Absolutely not, that would be too simplistic an inference to draw. I am finding it difficult to articulate what one should after looking at the scale and magnitude of this scam which has played out, where the promoter in five pages has just blown the biggest scam going in this country and has submitted himself to the forces of law.

To think that when the scam actually broke, Ramalinga Raju came on our channel and spoke so eloquently about justifying the Maytas deal, holding everything up. So I think investors would be completely rattled not just in Satyam Computers but in their whole conviction and belief in what numbers are reported because if Satyam can do it, where do you draw the line. So I am completely aghast about what has happened and we should just put out a graphic of the first couple of pages of this confession within quotes.

I really feel sorry for investors like Aberdeen and Fidelity who have picked up, who are sitting on very large chunks of Satyam Computers. We cannot blame them for naively believing the numbers which Satyam kept putting out quarter after quarter but now they are holding stock in a completely dud company – we don’t know what to believe.

No floor for a stock like Satyam:

It is an F&O stock so there cannot be any kind of a circuit filter on that. This is a truly extraordinary circumstance, the promoter has just come in and said that everything was a figment of his imagination, it was a big lie which he enacted and therefore you don’t know how to value this stock anymore.

He still says that there is some cash on the books but the way he has cooked up Q2 accounts which was just reported from 60 crore to 600 crore, you don’t want to believe even his confession what he has put out. So if it was a non-F&O stock maybe there would have been a circuit filter and trade would have got stopped and people would have got some time to analyze it but maybe it is just as well that trade is happening and people who want to get out as they would at this point would want to get out of the stock.

I just feel bad for the guy who does not own 500 shares of Satyam but owns several lakh shares or million shares of Satyam Computers. How does an Aberdeen exit right now and he is a blue-blooded FII who has taken a lot of India bets running a several billion dollar India portfolio. What happens to Fidelity who owns several million shares between various Fidelity accounts probably 9% of Satyam? He cannot sell in the secondary market today and get out for his lot of shares and he would be standing in line at some point to exit.

-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18

08 Jan 2009 06:11

A very important missing link is pointed out by a guest here on the board...

1. Why did he confessed at this point?

2. If there are no such actual funds available, why did he proposed Maytas`s takeover which was seen as a misuse of company`s funds for Raju`s own gain. This means either he wanted to cover up the scam or he wanted to get everything in his pocket if the funds existed.

3. Now, after the objections over Maytas deal.. he reversed his decision in the midnight and we know who work during our night time.

4. He sold his stake once the recovery started aftermath of Maytas deal and no deal.

5. What prompted him to confess after selling his stake and resigning from the board? Is it like a killing of a girlfriend in novels and movies out of jea.. ??

God knows... but while comparing with Enron, one difference remains.. bankruptcy. Satyam is not a bankrupt company like Enron declared itself.

What next? Will Satyam continue to breath normally or the death is imminent? I feel, it will survive. Let the rest of the management team and the entire leadership minus Rajus give some time.....

Stock price is totally different dimension, let us not consider at the moment... the most important thing is the survival of Satyam, our pride of IT business and the trust of global investors who have started looking at our biz models as more efficient...

This is more critical time than terrorists attacks, we have to adapt analytical approach and unitedly force our regulators to play active role rather than taking sleeping pills.

Raju`s have done harm not only to the Satyam shareholders, they have betrayed all citizens and punishment should be severe....
...

In reply to:

Satyam: A cleverly crafted scam

Posted by : Udayan Mukherjee

So even if there is any kind of a modest bounce in Satyam from whatever price level because people believe that the 5,000 crore of cash is still there, there is a big line of people and the Fidelity and Aberdeen’s of the world are not going to stand down with Satyam right now because of whatever cash is lying on its books. They want out and they want out like yesterday.

So this stock now has huge amount of overhead supply which just cannot be absorbed because the number of sellers far outnumbers the number of buyers in Satyam Computers at any price point. So this stock could fall to Rs 10 even if there is cash on the balance sheet because there would be a large number of institutional investors who have completely seen this lie and I do not think that they would want to hang on there at Rs 80-70 because of any kind of cash lying on its books.

This stock’s value despite the cash or the business operations right now is probably in single digit rupees. Nobody trust this, you have just broken down the trust completely, how do you believe a management which just cooked up everything from its balance sheet to its earning statement over the last many quarters and serially quarter after quarter went on national TV and reported to the exchanges one magnificent lie after another. It is just completely preposterous.

Who do you believe now?

Satyam is a company which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE); this is an index company, quarter after quarter it announces numbers which we take as gospel and we do a lot of analysis, every analyst does on whether margin slipped a bit and wage hikes happened and now you know that none of those numbers existed then who do you believe?. Do you believe auditors, who are supposed to be looking at these companies?

This is a fundamental issue of trust and faith which has been shaken. One can forget about the Satyam stock much that we feel very bad about Satyam shareholders that is one company. Here you stand the risk of actually losing your faith and trust in the system, which is supposed to be policing the numbers which you have faith and trust in. What happens to the auditors? This is a company which is not a fly by night small company, it is listed on a global exchange, global investor – they are supposed to be following US GAAP norms etc and quarter after quarter they keep blinkering all their investors and none of us find out till the promoter one fine day decides to confess.

Could there be more companies doing these kind of thing? What are the auditors doing? How will we ever know? You and I cannot be looking at going into and checking the bank accounts of Satyam and what they earned in a particular quarter or not. At some level there has to be an implicit code of faith that we believe what is posted on the walls of the exchange but today we cannot. So what are these people doing – these auditors and tax consultants and even rating agencies, how have they conducted themselves over the last two-three quarters. It is absolutely appalling.


-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18

08 Jan 2009 01:45

coolboy,

i had couple of 2800 february puts from dec end. my buying price was 120 odd. i thought market will go down from 2900 levels that time. then it started bullish. i kept quiet keeping in mind that i can wait becos it is february puts.

the value went down to 70 levels yesterday. i got one january 3000 put for 120 levels and 3 reliance puts 1290 for 45 Rs. today i sold the january put for 180 and all the reliance puts for 100 each. i keept the february puts. i think i can wait upto 2500 nifty levels.

sure i hope you also come out of ICICI puts with flying colors.

...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 4450 IN 2009 ?

Posted by : coolboy007

Ksmuthuswamy ,

Thanks for thinking about me and my stuck puts ;). One more small blow to ICICI will bail me out if it comes. Icici fell 10% so am sure it will go with Nifty atleast. Nifty fell 6%. You had PUTS??? Did u sq them off today?
regards

08 Jan 2009 01:31

Ksmuthuswamy ,

Thanks for thinking about me and my stuck puts ;). One more small blow to ICICI will bail me out if it comes. Icici fell 10% so am sure it will go with Nifty atleast. Nifty fell 6%. You had PUTS??? Did u sq them off today?
regards...

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 4450 IN 2009 ?

Posted by : ksmuthusamy

Hi Coolboy,

when i see icici bank was comfortably going past 525 levels i was remembering you and your puts. you are stuck with that.right? iam happy now you are relieved..( me too had some puts..but in nifty)..

iam not sure about ICICI..if nifty goes down sure you will get the prize.but banks are expected to fall less now ..due to interest rate thing...take care...

08 Jan 2009 00:47

Hi Coolboy,

when i see icici bank was comfortably going past 525 levels i was remembering you and your puts. you are stuck with that.right? iam happy now you are relieved..( me too had some puts..but in nifty)..

iam not sure about ICICI..if nifty goes down sure you will get the prize.but banks are expected to fall less now ..due to interest rate thing...take care......

In reply to:

WILL NIFTY HIT 4450 IN 2009 ?

Posted by : coolboy007

Dear Mittal sir ,

I am holding 5 lots ICICIPA400 @ 15-16 CMP 10 and enjoyed todays fall as my loss got halved. I read your fresh analysis today of nifty wherein you gave lower levels for Nifty. Last Month i made losses in my PE and this month want to get profits anyhow. Should i start booking losses slowly or wait till Mid Jan atleast for things to unfold. What are the probanilities of mkts hitting 2600-2700 in Jan so i cn exit my PA with profits, i use your views for my Trading and eagerly await them.

Regards

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