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Colgate Palmolive (India)
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Sell Colgate...
Posted by :
kadiyaliTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear Sriman35, my answer was in reply to Madam Radhika`s querry as to which of the Nifty stocks I select as the best for a 4-5 years investment. ICICI Bank in my opinion is undoubtedly the best for the reasons already explained earlier. My answers to your querries:
1. Growth in private banking (read as not only ICICI, but also HDFC, Axis, Kotak) will be more during the said 4-5 years due to banking reform has remained pending in the reforms agenda, and this will be definitely be taken during the said period. PSU banks will be mere `also rans` because they will never be as investor friendly as private banks.
2. Out of my first 3 picks of ICICI, HUL & Bharti Airtel, the last two have remained firm so far, but ICICI Bank has been hammered much below its intrinsic value. More it gets hammered in the near term, better it is for a long term investor.
3. The logic of buying only in April 2009 is that I expect major stocks (index participants) to bottom out only after 31.3.2009. That is exactly the reason I have given sell call for existing holders of ICICI Bank in a rally, only to buy back at its next low (expected to be below 270). Please also note that the bear phase will not end immediately after major stocks bottom out, and the bear phase is here to stay till "at least" January 2010.
Thanks & regards....
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by :
Sriman35
Dear kadiyali,
What makes you think that.....
(1)growth in private banking (read as ICICI) will be more comparative to PSU bank like SBI or other banks like HDFC/AXIS.?
(2)It can`t be a +ve point that icici bank is hammered more
(3) What is your logic of buying in April 2009. Is it that you feel market (major stocks) will bottom around that time..! If that is the case isn`t it a SELL now.
Regards,
Sri 
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : Sriman35Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear kadiyali,
What makes you think that.....
(1)growth in private banking (read as ICICI) will be more comparative to PSU bank like SBI or other banks like HDFC/AXIS.?
(2)It can`t be a +ve point that icici bank is hammered more
(3) What is your logic of buying in April 2009. Is it that you feel market (major stocks) will bottom around that time..! If that is the case isn`t it a SELL now.
Regards,
Sri...
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : kadiyali
Madam, India is one of the fastest growing economies, and the expected surge in individual domestic savings in 4-5 years will push 3 sectors directly connected with such savings, namely FMCG, Private Banking & Mobile Communications to the forefront of next bull run. My top picks in these 3 sectors out of the 50 Nifty stocks are HUL, ICICI Bank & Bharti Airtel, which are likely to give more returns than the balance 47 stocks of Nifty.
Out of the above three, ICICI Bank share has been hammered more, and it has received the hammering much more than what it deserves, and shall continue to get the hammering for at least next two quarters. At the same time, the long term fundamental of the share has not changed even a bit! Further ICICI Bank enjoys the robust support of a few foreign funds constituting appx 35% of the total capital, and this FII support is as good as the promoters contribution, which will never vanish. The share has also tremendous value unlocking for the shareholders in future, in terms of life insurance, general insurance & securities brokerage, which again are directly connected with the surging middle class domestic savings.
Due to above reasons, I cannot think of a better investment than ICICI Bank out of the 50 Nifty stocks. I will be buying this share in April 2009, followed by Bharti Airtel & HUL.
Thanks.
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : Sriman35Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear kadiyali,
That much I guessed (shortterm vs long term outlook). But what I would like to know is why is that. Seems there are 1 or 2 posts by Radhika and you on this. Will check and reply in short while.
Regards,
Sri...
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : kadiyali
Dear Sriman35, it is very simple! My "long term outlook" for the ICICI Bank is so good that I do not have any hesitation to say this stock is the best share among 50 Nifty stocks for investment with a 4-5 years horizon. At the same time, my "short term outlook" for the ICICI Bank is so bad, I am expecting it to touch a new low of 267 shortly. In fact, ICICI Bank can even fall below 200 anywhere before 15th April 09, and if invested at that time possibly at a level which market cannot even anticipate now, it is going to give returns in 4-5 years, much more than the returns any of the other 49 stocks comprising Nifty. Cheers.
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : kadiyaliTracked by: 0 Boarder
Madam, India is one of the fastest growing economies, and the expected surge in individual domestic savings in 4-5 years will push 3 sectors directly connected with such savings, namely FMCG, Private Banking & Mobile Communications to the forefront of next bull run. My top picks in these 3 sectors out of the 50 Nifty stocks are HUL, ICICI Bank & Bharti Airtel, which are likely to give more returns than the balance 47 stocks of Nifty.
Out of the above three, ICICI Bank share has been hammered more, and it has received the hammering much more than what it deserves, and shall continue to get the hammering for at least next two quarters. At the same time, the long term fundamental of the share has not changed even a bit! Further ICICI Bank enjoys the robust support of a few foreign funds constituting appx 35% of the total capital, and this FII support is as good as the promoters contribution, which will never vanish. The share has also tremendous value unlocking for the shareholders in future, in terms of life insurance, general insurance & securities brokerage, which again are directly connected with the surging middle class domestic savings.
Due to above reasons, I cannot think of a better investment than ICICI Bank out of the 50 Nifty stocks. I will be buying this share in April 2009, followed by Bharti Airtel & HUL.
Thanks....
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Kadiyali,
I thought you would say BUY Unitech... i was hoping lol. Okay Thanks. Do give the rationale for choosing ICICI over other nifty stocks. Thanks!
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : vkk43Tracked by: 0 Boarder
At the outset thanks for your views, to which I fully agree. If u would hv read my msgs, exactly same thing I have been telling investors that it is a traders market for a few months and whenever they get an opportunity, they must book profits so as to re enter at a lower rate.
Exact time period, I am not able to write now but of course until the elections are held, the trend will be like this only with huge volatility, though some of the boarders do not agree with these views. We are in the midst of so many uncertainties right now....
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : kadiyali
Sir, in my opinion the period from Dec 08 to April 09 will be very crucial in the current bear phase of Indian stock market. Investors need to pass through this crucial period for any large scale long term investments. Till then we should only trade in stocks for short term gains, which is there for the asking. Investors should utilise their bank balance to buy selected shares when the market falls steeply, and come out of this long position within days after getting 10-15% gain. Similarly, they should use the power of their deliveries of the existing holdings, and sell the same at rallies only to buy back after few days with lower price than what they have sold.
Higher level of FII sales induced by year end considerations & expected elections in India, will bring the market to new lows in Dec.08. Lower corporate earnings will bring the market down in January. Add to this, pre-election fever in Feb, and year end considerations for MF/individuals in India for March. All this add upto at least 4-5 months of crucial period. Once this period is passed off smoothly with the expected damage, value buying will definitely emerge a few days before final phase of Lok Sabha elections.
Please do give your reaction/views to above points.
Thanks. Kadiyali.
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : kadiyaliTracked by: 0 Boarder
Sir, in my opinion the period from Dec 08 to April 09 will be very crucial in the current bear phase of Indian stock market. Investors need to pass through this crucial period for any large scale long term investments. Till then we should only trade in stocks for short term gains, which is there for the asking. Investors should utilise their bank balance to buy selected shares when the market falls steeply, and come out of this long position within days after getting 10-15% gain. Similarly, they should use the power of their deliveries of the existing holdings, and sell the same at rallies only to buy back after few days with lower price than what they have sold.
Higher level of FII sales induced by year end considerations & expected elections in India, will bring the market to new lows in Dec.08. Lower corporate earnings will bring the market down in January. Add to this, pre-election fever in Feb, and year end considerations for MF/individuals in India for March. All this add upto at least 4-5 months of crucial period. Once this period is passed off smoothly with the expected damage, value buying will definitely emerge a few days before final phase of Lok Sabha elections.
Please do give your reaction/views to above points.
Thanks. Kadiyali....
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : vkk43
Any specific reason for 15.4.2009??
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : kadiyaliTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear Sriman35, it is very simple! My "long term outlook" for the ICICI Bank is so good that I do not have any hesitation to say this stock is the best share among 50 Nifty stocks for investment with a 4-5 years horizon. At the same time, my "short term outlook" for the ICICI Bank is so bad, I am expecting it to touch a new low of 267 shortly. In fact, ICICI Bank can even fall below 200 anywhere before 15th April 09, and if invested at that time possibly at a level which market cannot even anticipate now, it is going to give returns in 4-5 years, much more than the returns any of the other 49 stocks comprising Nifty. Cheers. ...
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : Sriman35
How to collate the below messages..!
Regards,
Sri
radhika_nandlal on (14-Nov-08 19:28 )
-------------------------------------
Kadiyali,
Which is the best nifty stock i can invest in with a 4-5 year horizon? Thanks
kadiyali on (15 Nov 2008 15:25)
-------------------------------
Madam, of all the 50 shares participating in NIFTY, my first choice for investment with a 4-5 years horizon will be ICICI Bank. After 5 years from now, we will definitely find this share at the top of the market capitalisation list, overtaking not only SBI but also RIL. Bharti Airtel will be a close second.
Having said that, I am not for investment in index participant shares at least till 15.04.2009....
kadiyali on (11 Nov 2008 20:52)
-------------------------------
All is not well with ICICI Bank. The Bank which was known for its world class service in India, has recently decided curtailment of its unique 8to8 banking. Very shortly only selected branches of the Bank will have 8AM to 8PM service, and majority of the branches will be open from 9AM to 6PM.
The share price which touched an intraday low of 283 a few days back, rallied all the way 471 on 10th NOv. Today it has started retreating, and this downward journey will stretch till the share slips below 300.
My new low for ICICI Bank is Rs 267. Investors can safely come out of this stock immediately at the current ruling rate, and leisurely buy back at below 300 levels.
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : radhika_nandlalTracked by: 0 Boarder
Kadiyali,
I thought you would say BUY Unitech... i was hoping lol. Okay Thanks. Do give the rationale for choosing ICICI over other nifty stocks. Thanks!...
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : kadiyali
Madam, of all the 50 shares participating in NIFTY, my first choice for investment with a 4-5 years horizon will be ICICI Bank. After 5 years from now, we will definitely find this share at the top of the market capitalisation list, overtaking not only SBI but also RIL. Bharti Airtel will be a close second.
Having said that, I am not for investment in index participant shares at least till 15.04.2009.
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : Sriman35Tracked by: 0 Boarder
How to collate the below messages..!
Regards,
Sri
radhika_nandlal on (14-Nov-08 19:28 )
-------------------------------------
Kadiyali,
Which is the best nifty stock i can invest in with a 4-5 year horizon? Thanks
kadiyali on (15 Nov 2008 15:25)
-------------------------------
Madam, of all the 50 shares participating in NIFTY, my first choice for investment with a 4-5 years horizon will be ICICI Bank. After 5 years from now, we will definitely find this share at the top of the market capitalisation list, overtaking not only SBI but also RIL. Bharti Airtel will be a close second.
Having said that, I am not for investment in index participant shares at least till 15.04.2009....
kadiyali on (11 Nov 2008 20:52)
-------------------------------
All is not well with ICICI Bank. The Bank which was known for its world class service in India, has recently decided curtailment of its unique 8to8 banking. Very shortly only selected branches of the Bank will have 8AM to 8PM service, and majority of the branches will be open from 9AM to 6PM.
The share price which touched an intraday low of 283 a few days back, rallied all the way 471 on 10th NOv. Today it has started retreating, and this downward journey will stretch till the share slips below 300.
My new low for ICICI Bank is Rs 267. Investors can safely come out of this stock immediately at the current ruling rate, and leisurely buy back at below 300 levels.
...
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : kadiyali
Madam, of all the 50 shares participating in NIFTY, my first choice for investment with a 4-5 years horizon will be ICICI Bank. After 5 years from now, we will definitely find this share at the top of the market capitalisation list, overtaking not only SBI but also RIL. Bharti Airtel will be a close second.
Having said that, I am not for investment in index participant shares at least till 15.04.2009.
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : vkk43Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Any specific reason for 15.4.2009??...
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : kadiyali
Madam, of all the 50 shares participating in NIFTY, my first choice for investment with a 4-5 years horizon will be ICICI Bank. After 5 years from now, we will definitely find this share at the top of the market capitalisation list, overtaking not only SBI but also RIL. Bharti Airtel will be a close second.
Having said that, I am not for investment in index participant shares at least till 15.04.2009.
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : kadiyaliTracked by: 0 Boarder
Madam, of all the 50 shares participating in NIFTY, my first choice for investment with a 4-5 years horizon will be ICICI Bank. After 5 years from now, we will definitely find this share at the top of the market capitalisation list, overtaking not only SBI but also RIL. Bharti Airtel will be a close second.
Having said that, I am not for investment in index participant shares at least till 15.04.2009....
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Kadiyali,
Which is the best nifty stock i can invest in with a 4-5 year horizon? Thanks
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : winwathTracked by: 0 Boarder
The Ambani brothers
RELIANCE and RNRL....
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Kadiyali,
Which is the best nifty stock i can invest in with a 4-5 year horizon? Thanks
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : radhika_nandlalTracked by: 0 Boarder
Kadiyali,
Which is the best nifty stock i can invest in with a 4-5 year horizon? Thanks...
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : kadiyali
Despite steep fall of the market and also prices of majority of shares, Colgate has remained strong without a fall only because
till now no. of sellers and buyers of the share are nore or less
equal. The day is not very far off, when sellers start outnumbering
the buyers. Once that happens, Colgate too start sliding though it
may happen only gradually. Cheers.
Kadiyali
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : kadiyaliTracked by: 0 Boarder
Despite steep fall of the market and also prices of majority of shares, Colgate has remained strong without a fall only because
till now no. of sellers and buyers of the share are nore or less
equal. The day is not very far off, when sellers start outnumbering
the buyers. Once that happens, Colgate too start sliding though it
may happen only gradually. Cheers.
Kadiyali...
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by :
misha
dear boarders,and kadiyali
have u seen when the markets are falling non-stop, colgate is going up. this is the real strength of the company. people have not understood when the fv was reduced to rs.1.00 the price should have goneup. but the market has not given the higher discounting. this is the reason why the scrip is not falling when the sensex fell 13000 points from the high. these are investment shares and the likes are P&G, glaxo, gillette.lever etc., these are the scrips goes up when the markets crashes
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : chief_kamaniTracked by: 0 Boarder
misha-Its a timeless stock!!Colgate is just too good!!...
In reply to:
Sell Colgate...
Posted by : misha
dear boarders,and kadiyali
have u seen when the markets are falling non-stop, colgate is going up. this is the real strength of the company. people have not understood when the fv was reduced to rs.1.00 the price should have goneup. but the market has not given the higher discounting. this is the reason why the scrip is not falling when the sensex fell 13000 points from the high. these are investment shares and the likes are P&G, glaxo, gillette.lever etc., these are the scrips goes up when the markets crashes
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