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Reliance Industries
Bhusbhac, True Blue RIL Flag Bearer... I envy you...
Posted by :
curious catTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear Novice 1000, you certainly are not butting in... anyone is welcome to express his/her/its (after watching Dostana, i have to be politically correct) view... What baffles me is that RIL (unscrupulously) sold so 4% RPL and made very decent gains... everybody was boasting a fortnight back that companies who have liquidity will have less or no problem... RIL being named as one of them... Then how come a huge company needs to borrow from -Billion from LIC at 11:5%... is it going to be used to support its stock from falling... The rule that the promoters can raise its level of shareholding ( a few % every year) came about after they bought back at 1400... what do you guys think? ... ...
In reply to:
Bhusbhac, True Blue RIL Flag Bearer... I envy you...
Posted by :
novice1000
dear curious cat,
Sorry to butt in. In fact the stock may very well go down to levels below 1000 and stay there for a long time in the forthcoming calendar year.
Markets are entering in to a very tough times..
regards 
Bhusbhac, True Blue RIL Flag Bearer... I envy you...
Posted by : bhusbhacTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear novice1000 - You may prove to be correct in this kind of market especially since our Indian sentiments have been hurt and there are negative feelings. However it would have been better if you would not put too much certainty in your words.
The direction forward is fundamentals which can change in a market. Right now RIL is a very good buy based on fundamentals and being an oil and gas stock. Accidents can happen in DEEP SEA, crude might go down to US$ 40 - now some of the experts are predicting a full U turn from US$ 150-200-250 to US$ 40, oil and gas production might be at higher cost than the current market price of crude as suggested by some boarders, gross refining margins may suffer, and add to this some 1000 things that COULD go wrong including a large meteorite striking this planet.. However the body language of RIL seems positive so I think that is the wiser direction for now.
Investing at NIFTY 6000 posed a much greater risk for EXPERT projections of NIFTY at 7000 to 8000 expected in a few months. We are down more than 3500 at October lows from that point. From 2500 how much can you takeaway? 800, 1000 or maybe the full 2500. So at NIFTY 6000+ there were Indian RETAIL investors willing to take the risk guided by EXPERTS and MEDIA so why take the plunge guided from the same sources?
RIL at 900-800-500? Well we will take due care of the fundamentals if the situation so demands.
So I am not saying anything with 100% certainty and I earnestly request boarders to refrain from such practice since it is not ethical. Also it would be much more fun seeing NIFTY drive all the way to 6000 & beyond rather than slip into zero since nothing much is left anyway....
In reply to:
Bhusbhac, True Blue RIL Flag Bearer... I envy you...
Posted by : novice1000
dear curious cat,
Sorry to butt in. In fact the stock may very well go down to levels below 1000 and stay there for a long time in the forthcoming calendar year.
Markets are entering in to a very tough times..
regards
Bhusbhac, True Blue RIL Flag Bearer... I envy you...
Posted by : novice1000Tracked by: 0 Boarder
In between , what ever bounces this stock may witness will be short lived....
In reply to:
Bhusbhac, True Blue RIL Flag Bearer... I envy you...
Posted by : novice1000
dear curious cat,
Sorry to butt in. In fact the stock may very well go down to levels below 1000 and stay there for a long time in the forthcoming calendar year.
Markets are entering in to a very tough times..
regards
Bhusbhac, True Blue RIL Flag Bearer... I envy you...
Posted by : novice1000Tracked by: 0 Boarder
dear curious cat,
Sorry to butt in. In fact the stock may very well go down to levels below 1000 and stay there for a long time in the forthcoming calendar year.
Markets are entering in to a very tough times..
regards...
In reply to:
Bhusbhac, True Blue RIL Flag Bearer... I envy you...
Posted by : curious cat
Dear Bhusbhac, You are a true blue RIL flag bearer... I wish to join you too.... soon as i am fully invested in this great company..... you think i will get a chance to buy a chunk of it near 900 levels? Will it touch it for a day or two? Atleast for my sake...
Bhusbhac, True Blue RIL Flag Bearer... I envy you...
Posted by : bhusbhacTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear curios cat - The last two trading sessions show a major bounceback from 1090. This would be defined as a double V. In fact this level was tested umpteen number of times in these two trading sessions. Also the news of the loan RIL having taken loan from LIC seems to auger well for the market.
NIFTY is in a precarious position. NIFTY may test the October lows and there is some chance that RIL may escape going below 1100! I suggest you buy some quantity at this level and add some more WoW until end of January 2009. Then go all out as the situation may demand!
But with the FII factor and with Indian sentiments I cannot really tell! All I can say is that RIL should not go below 1090 for long which seems to be a good support level for now!...
In reply to:
Bhusbhac, True Blue RIL Flag Bearer... I envy you...
Posted by : curious cat
Dear Bhusbhac, You are a true blue RIL flag bearer... I wish to join you too.... soon as i am fully invested in this great company..... you think i will get a chance to buy a chunk of it near 900 levels? Will it touch it for a day or two? Atleast for my sake...
Bhusbhac, True Blue RIL Flag Bearer... I envy you...
Posted by : curious catTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear Bhusbhac, You are a true blue RIL flag bearer... I wish to join you too.... soon as i am fully invested in this great company..... you think i will get a chance to buy a chunk of it near 900 levels? Will it touch it for a day or two? Atleast for my sake......
Reliance Raises 1 Billion from LIC at 11 %. Reports NDTV Profit
Posted by : investor11Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Which is a better news whether RIL is commisioning Jamnagar refinery or need 5000 crore working capital?If not LIC some other would lend money to them Commissioning of refinery would add to there topline as well as bottomline,5000 crore dedt for 100,000 crore co in miniscule...
In reply to:
Reliance Raises 1 Billion from LIC at 11 %. Reports NDTV Profit
Posted by : kadiyali
It is a clear sign of liquidity crunch. Despite getting funds at Rs 1400 per share in promoters placement, the company is suffering from crunch. One only hopes money is not lost through the retail outlets, posting losses month after month.
Reliance Raises 1 Billion from LIC at 11 %. Reports NDTV Profit
Posted by : bhusbhacTracked by: 0 Boarder
Continuation -
So please ignore media hype if you want to prosper and do the right thing! Media sensationalises to the extent that a peson is pronounced guilty of murder even before the matter comes up for trial in courts. In our situation they have crashed our markets much more than necessary also for sensationlising! Dont follow the FIIs since in the desperation and panic they have burned their fingers everywhere and everything they touched. On should also say that even the subprime and financial crisis proves beyond any doubt that they GREED made them STUPID we can discount the over ambitious part!
For a start stop watching S&P 500, NASDAQ and DOW from today. S&P 500 is only 18 points away from the October lows so just ignore it as an event if happens.
DOW futers is down triple Nelson 111 and S&P 500 Futures is down 13.90 points so the critical points are bound to be tested very soon!
Let us face reality!
...
In reply to:
Reliance Raises 1 Billion from LIC at 11 %. Reports NDTV Profit
Posted by : bhusbhac
Dear curios cat - The market cap of RIL along with several big names have seen a fall in an oversold market. I would assume that in case of RIL the company is seen taking steps of closing some of its loss making operations and that it does not foresee opening at all which should give way to some other diversified business. The company has also induced shutdowns of certain plants for maintenance in order to rationalise inventory control as so many companies are doing at present. The company has also reduced inventories in their retail outlets a business which is new to them however no matter what the condition of our economy retail business is generally expected to grow 25% in comparison to the present 27%!
Regarding unsold stock and huge inventories I suppose that given the market conditions, volatility not only of the stock exchanges but the commodities as well the environment is none to easy and so there will be some losses. Thank God you and me are not running RIL so sleepless nights will be with Mukeshbhai. However my gut feeling suggests that RIL is reacting very fast to the market situation.
But then we are not talking about RIL at 2500 we are talking about RIL at 1130!
I suppose some businesses will take quite soem time to revive but I still feel that the main businesses concerning oil and gas there will be no losses in GRM going forward simply because if Dollar goes up oil goes down and if Dollar goes down oil goes up.
Going forward US economy will stabilise and may somewhat recover. This will again drive crude prices higher! We have to think about the American emotions and attiudes as compared to Indians. They are the leaders we are the slaves of the world! So they will recover even in adversity we succumb even when times are good and conditions favour us!
So due to our stock market crash much more than warranted since most of us dont know anything about valuations our comapnies find themselves with a loss of market cap. Sure enough banks will not look at exaggerated market cap asset valuations and PEs however the stock markets have gone way below sensibilities and hence borrowings have to be resorted to from any other source other than banks who will no take a view of the stock market price which is much lower than the actual valuations! Banks will avoid subprime crisis they dont go by gut feelings they go by records which the FIIs have brought upon us!
Actually the simplest way a company can recover is with a support in the market that could raise the market cap and the company could diverisfy as the times so demand!
Regarding Tata Motors they are caught with wrong investments at the wrong time like going in for the Jaguar deal at such a high price. Tata Steel also with acquisition of Chorus which they would find difficult to conclude. Suzlon since wind energy is expensive at current crude prices and they had quality problems of the blades in the wrong country. L&T has a PE which is more than double of RIL which was justfied due to their growth in the BULL phase but becomes equally adverse in the BEAR phase. FYI the company still has shown good results much better than street expectations last quarter!
What can one do if you are caught with the wrong expansion and acquisition plans at the wrong time in history especially when there has been no real direct fault on their part! If we ever believed in the expansion and acquisition plans we should be supporting these comapnies now and not running away from the scene!
So in this environment and after making some studies I strongly feel that RIL is still much better off. Their oil and gas production started in the nick of time and this single factor could be sufficent to raise RIL to much greater heights than even before. Other businesses can follow but none of their businesses are luxury class and appeal both to the middle class as well as the masses!
Reliance Raises 1 Billion from LIC at 11 %. Reports NDTV Profit
Posted by : bhusbhacTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear curios cat - The market cap of RIL along with several big names have seen a fall in an oversold market. I would assume that in case of RIL the company is seen taking steps of closing some of its loss making operations and that it does not foresee opening at all which should give way to some other diversified business. The company has also induced shutdowns of certain plants for maintenance in order to rationalise inventory control as so many companies are doing at present. The company has also reduced inventories in their retail outlets a business which is new to them however no matter what the condition of our economy retail business is generally expected to grow 25% in comparison to the present 27%!
Regarding unsold stock and huge inventories I suppose that given the market conditions, volatility not only of the stock exchanges but the commodities as well the environment is none to easy and so there will be some losses. Thank God you and me are not running RIL so sleepless nights will be with Mukeshbhai. However my gut feeling suggests that RIL is reacting very fast to the market situation.
But then we are not talking about RIL at 2500 we are talking about RIL at 1130!
I suppose some businesses will take quite soem time to revive but I still feel that the main businesses concerning oil and gas there will be no losses in GRM going forward simply because if Dollar goes up oil goes down and if Dollar goes down oil goes up.
Going forward US economy will stabilise and may somewhat recover. This will again drive crude prices higher! We have to think about the American emotions and attiudes as compared to Indians. They are the leaders we are the slaves of the world! So they will recover even in adversity we succumb even when times are good and conditions favour us!
So due to our stock market crash much more than warranted since most of us dont know anything about valuations our comapnies find themselves with a loss of market cap. Sure enough banks will not look at exaggerated market cap asset valuations and PEs however the stock markets have gone way below sensibilities and hence borrowings have to be resorted to from any other source other than banks who will no take a view of the stock market price which is much lower than the actual valuations! Banks will avoid subprime crisis they dont go by gut feelings they go by records which the FIIs have brought upon us!
Actually the simplest way a company can recover is with a support in the market that could raise the market cap and the company could diverisfy as the times so demand!
Regarding Tata Motors they are caught with wrong investments at the wrong time like going in for the Jaguar deal at such a high price. Tata Steel also with acquisition of Chorus which they would find difficult to conclude. Suzlon since wind energy is expensive at current crude prices and they had quality problems of the blades in the wrong country. L&T has a PE which is more than double of RIL which was justfied due to their growth in the BULL phase but becomes equally adverse in the BEAR phase. FYI the company still has shown good results much better than street expectations last quarter!
What can one do if you are caught with the wrong expansion and acquisition plans at the wrong time in history especially when there has been no real direct fault on their part! If we ever believed in the expansion and acquisition plans we should be supporting these comapnies now and not running away from the scene!
So in this environment and after making some studies I strongly feel that RIL is still much better off. Their oil and gas production started in the nick of time and this single factor could be sufficent to raise RIL to much greater heights than even before. Other businesses can follow but none of their businesses are luxury class and appeal both to the middle class as well as the masses!
...
In reply to:
Reliance Raises 1 Billion from LIC at 11 %. Reports NDTV Profit
Posted by : curious cat
Dear Bhusbhac,
Reliance raises 1 Billion from LIC... NDTV Profit reported... will this eventually take the stock down like Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Suzlon etc who too raised a sizeable debt... The channel stated that it must have been difficult for them to raise it through the banks... What now?
Reliance Raises 1 Billion from LIC at 11 %. Reports NDTV Profit
Posted by : curious catTracked by: 0 Boarder
I also hear from friends from same industry that Reliance is sitting on huge unsold inventory, which has really depreciated alot in value... they are attempting to offload it through various sops... without a doubt it is one of the best companies in the long run.... but short term they are slapping themselves to look pink......
In reply to:
Reliance Raises 1 Billion from LIC at 11 %. Reports NDTV Profit
Posted by : kadiyali
It is a clear sign of liquidity crunch. Despite getting funds at Rs 1400 per share in promoters placement, the company is suffering from crunch. One only hopes money is not lost through the retail outlets, posting losses month after month.
Reliance Raises 1 Billion from LIC at 11 %. Reports NDTV Profit
Posted by : curious catTracked by: 0 Boarder
I also hear from friends from same industry that Reliance is sitting on huge unsold inventory, which has really depreciated alot in value... they are attempting to offload it through various sops... without a doubt it is one of the best companies in the long run.... but short term they are slapping themselves to look pink......
In reply to:
Reliance Raises 1 Billion from LIC at 11 %. Reports NDTV Profit
Posted by : kadiyali
It is a clear sign of liquidity crunch. Despite getting funds at Rs 1400 per share in promoters placement, the company is suffering from crunch. One only hopes money is not lost through the retail outlets, posting losses month after month.
Reliance Raises 1 Billion from LIC at 11 %. Reports NDTV Profit
Posted by : kadiyaliTracked by: 0 Boarder
It is a clear sign of liquidity crunch. Despite getting funds at Rs 1400 per share in promoters placement, the company is suffering from crunch. One only hopes money is not lost through the retail outlets, posting losses month after month....
In reply to:
Reliance Raises 1 Billion from LIC at 11 %. Reports NDTV Profit
Posted by : curious cat
Dear Bhusbhac,
Reliance raises 1 Billion from LIC... NDTV Profit reported... will this eventually take the stock down like Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Suzlon etc who too raised a sizeable debt... The channel stated that it must have been difficult for them to raise it through the banks... What now?
Reliance would not hit 3 digit mark easily this time
Posted by :
PowerSHAHTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear ALL,
For poeple who want to hold for 1 year or above..there is no problem even if hits 900 for a while...as far as people who play intraday in this counter they have to be very care ful...today everyone witnessed the power of operators(elephants) who simply did not allow the stock to slip visa-vis Nifty.. No one can predict movement in these counter....
Regards
Power Shah ...
In reply to:
Reliance would not hit 3 digit mark easily this time
Posted by : suvvena
My personal view is reliance would not touch three digit mark easily this time.It might hover around current levels for some time.Watch for dow jones if it breaches its prev low only then reliance would touch 3 digits.I might be totally wrong.I hold reliance at 1220 levels.
Reliance Raises 1 Billion from LIC at 11 %. Reports NDTV Profit
Posted by : curious catTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear Bhusbhac,
Reliance raises 1 Billion from LIC... NDTV Profit reported... will this eventually take the stock down like Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Suzlon etc who too raised a sizeable debt... The channel stated that it must have been difficult for them to raise it through the banks... What now?...
Reliance would not hit 3 digit mark easily this time
Posted by : suvvenaTracked by: 0 Boarder
There is a typo error .Read it as dow jones making new low....
In reply to:
Reliance would not hit 3 digit mark easily this time
Posted by : suvvena
My personal view is reliance would not touch three digit mark easily this time.It might hover around current levels for some time.Watch for dow jones if it breaches its prev low only then reliance would touch 3 digits.I might be totally wrong.I hold reliance at 1220 levels.
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