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Market Outlook - Long Term
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We have never before seen for such sustained periods of time such a sustained turn away from risk taking,” said Steven Wieting, the chief United States economist for Citigroup. “This has broken out of the boundaries we’ve seen.” Economic activity appears to have slowed sharply in September, Mr. Wieting said.
The panic last week took the biggest toll on financial companies, as well as companies that are highly leveraged. But stocks fell 10 to 30 percent even for companies typically thought to be resistant to economic downturns, like the manufacturers of consumer staples.
For example, Newell Rubbermaid fell to $12.82 on Friday from $17.34 on Oct. 1, a 26 percent decline in 10 days. Newell Rubbermaid now trades at its lowest levels since 1990, and just eight times its expected earnings for next year.
Yet Newell Rubbermaid, whose brands include Calphalon, is profitable and insulated from the credit crisis, said William G. Schmitz Jr., who follows household products companies for Deutsche Bank. “There’s really no balance sheet risk,” Mr. Schmitz said. The company also pays a 6 percent dividend.
Newell Rubbermaid said in July that it would earn $1.40 to $1.60 a share for 2008, excluding restructuring charges. For 2009, stock analysts predict it will make $1.53 a share. And while a slowing economy may mean that people will be buying fewer products from Newell Rubbermaid, the recent plunge in oil prices will reduce its costs, Mr. Schmitz said.
“The way the stock’s reacted, you’d think they were going out of business,” he said.
Martin J. Whitman, a professional investor for more than 50 years, said that as long as economies worldwide could avoid an outright depression, stocks were amazingly cheap. Mr. Whitman manages the $6 billion Third Avenue Value fund, which returned 10.2 percent annually for the 15 years that ended Sept. 30, almost two percentage points a year better than the S.& P. 500 index. The fund is down 46 percent this year.
“This is the opportunity of a lifetime,” Mr. Whitman said. “The most important securities are being given away.”
...
In reply to:
Those Knowing History May Find It’s Time to Invest
Posted by :
sambala
The four most dangerous words for investors are: This time is different.
In 1999, technology companies with no earnings or sales were valued at billions of dollars. But this time was different, investors told themselves. The Internet could not be missed at any price.
They were wrong. In 2000 and 2001 technology stocks plunged, erasing trillions of dollars in wealth.
Now investors have again convinced themselves that this time is different, that the credit crisis will push economies worldwide into the deepest recession since the Depression. Fear runs even deeper today than greed did a decade ago.
But in their panic, investors are ignoring 60 years of history. Since the Depression, governments have become far more aggressive about intervening when credit markets seize up or economies struggle. And those interventions have generally succeeded. The recessions since World War II, while hardly easy, have been far less painful than the Depression.
Now some veteran investors, including G. Kenneth Heebner, a mutual fund manager who has one of the best long-term track records on Wall Street, say that the sell-off has gone much too far and stocks are poised to rally powerfully if the downturn is less severe than investors fear.
“The fact is, there are a lot of tremendous bargains out there,” said Mr. Heebner, who manages about $10 billion in several mutual funds. Indeed, by many measures stocks are as cheap as they have been in the last 25 years.
He pointed to Chesapeake Energy, a natural gas producer that he owns in his CGM Focus mutual fund. In July, Chesapeake traded for $63 a share. On Friday, it fell as low as $11.99.
He says that investors with a stomach for risk and a long time horizon should consider following Warren E. Buffett, who in the last three weeks has invested $8 billion in Goldman Sachs and General Electric.
Mr. Heebner expects world economies to contract over the next year. But he said the market plunge in the last week was no longer being driven by rational analysis. Stocks are probably falling because of a combination of panic and forced selling by hedge funds that must meet margin calls from their lenders, he said.
Mr. Heebner’s funds have not avoided the carnage this year. The CGM Focus fund is down about 42 percent so far in 2008. But his long-term track record is impressive. In the decade that ended Dec. 31, 2007, CGM Focus rose 26 percent a year, including reinvested dividends, making it among the best-performing mutual funds.
Mr. Heebner is not alone in his optimism.
“I think in years to come — I wouldn’t say months to come — we will perceive this as being a great value-buying opportunity,” said David P. Stowell, a finance professor at Northwestern and a former managing director at JPMorgan Chase. “Two and three years from now, it will seem very smart.”
Even before their jaw-dropping plunge of the last month, stocks were not expensive by historical standards, based on fundamentals like earnings and cash flow. Now, after falling 30 percent or more since early September, stocks in stalwart, profitable corporations like Nokia, Exxon Mobil and Boeing are trading at nine times their annual profits per share or less. Many smaller companies are even cheaper. Some of those stocks are trading at five times earnings or less.
Those ratios are historically low. Over all, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is trading at about 13 times its expected profits for 2009, its lowest level in decades. In contrast, at the height of the technology bubble in early 2000, the stocks in the S.& P. traded at about 30 times earnings, the highest level ever. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury bond paid about 6 percent interest, compared with less than 4 percent today.
Investors have fled stocks in favor of government bonds, insured bank deposits and other low-risk investments because they are deeply afraid of the worldwide economic crisis, said Stephen Haber, an economic historian and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. But he said he believed that fear might have gone too far.
“If there is good and wise policy, and government moves effectively, this need not play itself out in ways like the Great Depression, which is the image that is playing itself out in people’s mind,” Mr. Haber said. Government action typically does not work immediately, and banking crises around the world often require multiple interventions, he said.
Still, optimists remain in the minority on Wall Street. Most investors seem to believe that the credit crisis will do substantial damage to stocks and overall economic activity.
CONT..... 
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The four most dangerous words for investors are: This time is different.
In 1999, technology companies with no earnings or sales were valued at billions of dollars. But this time was different, investors told themselves. The Internet could not be missed at any price.
They were wrong. In 2000 and 2001 technology stocks plunged, erasing trillions of dollars in wealth.
Now investors have again convinced themselves that this time is different, that the credit crisis will push economies worldwide into the deepest recession since the Depression. Fear runs even deeper today than greed did a decade ago.
But in their panic, investors are ignoring 60 years of history. Since the Depression, governments have become far more aggressive about intervening when credit markets seize up or economies struggle. And those interventions have generally succeeded. The recessions since World War II, while hardly easy, have been far less painful than the Depression.
Now some veteran investors, including G. Kenneth Heebner, a mutual fund manager who has one of the best long-term track records on Wall Street, say that the sell-off has gone much too far and stocks are poised to rally powerfully if the downturn is less severe than investors fear.
“The fact is, there are a lot of tremendous bargains out there,” said Mr. Heebner, who manages about $10 billion in several mutual funds. Indeed, by many measures stocks are as cheap as they have been in the last 25 years.
He pointed to Chesapeake Energy, a natural gas producer that he owns in his CGM Focus mutual fund. In July, Chesapeake traded for $63 a share. On Friday, it fell as low as $11.99.
He says that investors with a stomach for risk and a long time horizon should consider following Warren E. Buffett, who in the last three weeks has invested $8 billion in Goldman Sachs and General Electric.
Mr. Heebner expects world economies to contract over the next year. But he said the market plunge in the last week was no longer being driven by rational analysis. Stocks are probably falling because of a combination of panic and forced selling by hedge funds that must meet margin calls from their lenders, he said.
Mr. Heebner’s funds have not avoided the carnage this year. The CGM Focus fund is down about 42 percent so far in 2008. But his long-term track record is impressive. In the decade that ended Dec. 31, 2007, CGM Focus rose 26 percent a year, including reinvested dividends, making it among the best-performing mutual funds.
Mr. Heebner is not alone in his optimism.
“I think in years to come — I wouldn’t say months to come — we will perceive this as being a great value-buying opportunity,” said David P. Stowell, a finance professor at Northwestern and a former managing director at JPMorgan Chase. “Two and three years from now, it will seem very smart.”
Even before their jaw-dropping plunge of the last month, stocks were not expensive by historical standards, based on fundamentals like earnings and cash flow. Now, after falling 30 percent or more since early September, stocks in stalwart, profitable corporations like Nokia, Exxon Mobil and Boeing are trading at nine times their annual profits per share or less. Many smaller companies are even cheaper. Some of those stocks are trading at five times earnings or less.
Those ratios are historically low. Over all, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is trading at about 13 times its expected profits for 2009, its lowest level in decades. In contrast, at the height of the technology bubble in early 2000, the stocks in the S.& P. traded at about 30 times earnings, the highest level ever. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury bond paid about 6 percent interest, compared with less than 4 percent today.
Investors have fled stocks in favor of government bonds, insured bank deposits and other low-risk investments because they are deeply afraid of the worldwide economic crisis, said Stephen Haber, an economic historian and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. But he said he believed that fear might have gone too far.
“If there is good and wise policy, and government moves effectively, this need not play itself out in ways like the Great Depression, which is the image that is playing itself out in people’s mind,” Mr. Haber said. Government action typically does not work immediately, and banking crises around the world often require multiple interventions, he said.
Still, optimists remain in the minority on Wall Street. Most investors seem to believe that the credit crisis will do substantial damage to stocks and overall economic activity.
CONT........
After a long Hiatus I am attempting to write another contrarian picture after 5 years. My last post on structural aspect of market was way back in 2003 where I stated to exit in 2007 (and I exited when sensex was 18000), and faced brick bats. I am thankful to few boarders who appreciated my views (old timer, Stanley, marketguy etc) and for them I am writing once again.
We are in a lovely phase of accumulation and yes, I can say that cause I am not invested and sitting pretty much on cash, though I have deployed around 2 lacs, but holding significant liquid to be deployed starting next week and going up to 2010. Basic theory once again – the 8 year cycle and this time I am sure we are going to make the mega bucks – forget multi baggers – the opportunity in 2016 to cash out will need a change in word from ‘multi’ to mega baggers.
Cheers
Kamalendu
...
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INDIA IS A STRONG ECONOMY,BELIVE US WE ARE FUNDAMENTALLY VERY SOUND .TRUST INDIA ,TRUST FINANCE MINISTRY . DON`T PANIC WE WILL BOUNCE BACK....
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If retirement is far off, don’t panic over week’s worth of bad economic news
When Wall Street takes a spectacular ride, whether you feel nausea or not depends on whether you consider yourself a passenger or passerby.
And that, in turn, depends on whether you have the luxury of ignoring the rise and fall of the financial roller-coaster.
“The stock market has a very important role,” said Dorsey Farr, principal in Atlanta-based French Wolf & Farr, an investment and wealth advisory firm. “But maybe you shouldn’t stop and read the ticker every time you pass a brokerage or go into a sports bar that has CNBC.”
Friday’s performance of the Dow Jones industrial average is a case in point. The well-watched market measure roared lower early in the day, then higher, then dropped, then soared, and finally finished down 128 points. That slippage seemed minor after a series of huge drops in recent weeks that left major stock indices down roughly 40 percent for the past year, resulting in one of the 10 worst markets of the past century.
Thanks to a massive bailout, election-year politics and near-constant coverage in the media, the spotlight has stayed trained on Wall Street.
Confidence has been rattled, but how much do jittery markets really matter to the nation’s trillion-a-year economy? There are at least some reasons to see the triple-digit losses and shrug:
• Stock prices don’t typically impact day-to-day company operations. A profitable company is still profitable.
• Among the roughly 137 million American workers not laboring on a farm, an infinitesimal fraction lose jobs because the market plunges. For the rest, paychecks still arrive, meaning spending ability is unchanged.
Still, some people feel the roller-coaster’s vertigo immediately.
Right in the front seat are people preparing to retire and who are depending on portfolios. Along with them are investors who have counted on stock sales to pay bills, said Adrian Cronje, Atlanta-based director of asset allocation at Wilmington Trust, a wealth management firm. If you do not need to cash out anytime soon, “you have got to do your best to ignore the gyrations of the market,” he said.
Those gyrations have been mostly to the downside, despite the government’s proposed interventions that add up to hundreds of billions of dollars.
Eventually, those plans — however flawed — will bolster the credit markets and prevent financial disaster, argued Cronje.
“In the short run, what drives the market is emotion — panic, fear and greed,” he said. “In the long run, it’s driven by fundamentals.”
But at the moment, the stock market is afraid those fundamentals are fatally flawed. And while much of the economy can ignore the market for awhile, eventually its effects do reach into most corners of Main Street.
The link grows stronger as time passes.
“If you are not retiring in the next five years, then on a day-to-day basis, it shouldn’t affect what you are doing,” said economist Akila Weerapana, of Wellesley College. “The question is, what is your horizon?”
The farther out you look, the larger the market looms.
Public companies turn to the stock market, hoping to sell a stake in themselves in return for cash. While there are other sources of capital — loans and bonds, especially — issuing stock is a key means of raising money for expansion or just to operate the business. Lately, that has been growing much harder because of sagging markets.
“If firms can’t raise capital, they can’t keep plants running, they can’t build new plants and they can’t employ workers,” Farr said.
And consumers, whose spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, look to the market for cues.
Consumers’ wealth is primarily found in their homes, as well as in stocks held individually, or as part of mutual funds or 401(k) plans.
When people believe they are richer, they spend more — but the reverse is also true.
For every dollar in declining market worth, a consumer averages 2.5 to 4.5 cents less in spending, Farr estimated.
But how dramatically Americans react can be as much about their heads as their wallets, Weerapana said.
There is good reason to be afraid, but fear can also sometimes feed on itself, he said. “What you are seeing is the psychology at work. Psychology does have a real-world effect.”
By MICHAEL E. KANELL
...
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Buffett`s obsession with making money permeates the book and every aspect of his life. His fundamental premise is to buy sound stocks that historically have sales that have grown annually, are well run, have durable competitive advantage and will most likely be around in 20 years.
Above all, spend less than you make.
At the core of his business values is the inner scorecard. As he puts it:
"If the world couldn`t see your results, would you rather be thought of as the world`s greatest investor but in reality have the world`s worst record? Or be thought of as the world`s worst investor when you were actually the best?``
Buffett`s photographic memory for figures and a will to turn any enterprise he could think of into cash started at a very young age. He asked Santa Claus for a book on bonds when he was seven. Be it stamp trading, gathering spit-stained winning tickets at horse races discarded by ignorant punters, installing pin ball machines in barbershops, running racetrack tip sheets, doing paper rounds or flogging used golf balls, if there was a buck (in his mind, always $5 ) to be made, he found it.
His were largely lonely pursuits and as Schroeder reveals, he was a complex personality; introverted, dishevelled, untidy, and as a youth, immature for his age, anti-social and inadequate around girls and later, the women whom he depended on.
He got into Columbia University after failing the entrance test to Harvard (it wanted leaders, not sharemarket whizzes) but at Columbia he fell on his luck when Ben Graham, author of iconic stock market investment book The Intelligent Investor became his tutor and mentor.
Buffett married Susie Thompson, the love of his life for 47 years until she died four years ago. They had three children and although she left the marriage in 1977 in San Francisco to pursue a cabaret singing career, they fronted as a married couple all their life together.
She introduced him to a friend, Astrid Menks, who was his "companion`` for more than 20 years. He married Astrid two years ago.
By DENISE MCNABB - BusinessDay .co. nz...
In reply to:
The world according to Warren Buffett
Posted by : sambala
As financial firms collapse and sharemarkets gyrate, commentators and politicians are arguing over the why and what happens next. One man is shrewdly taking action - spending up large, taking keystone investments in flagship companies.
Warren Buffett is the man of the moment, a man in his element. What makes him tick? Denise McNabb delivers an exclusive advance review of Buffett`s first authorised biography.
When each of the Buffett children turned 10 their stockbroker father, Howard, would take them on a trip from their home in Omaha, Nebraska, to the east coast of America.
Young Warren knew exactly where he wanted to visit - the Scott Stamp and Coin Company, the Lionel Train Company, and the New York Stock Exchange.
It was 1940 and memories of the 1929 sharemarket crash were still raw.
On their way to Wall Street, Warren`s father decided to drop by one of the city`s largest brokerage firms, Goldman Sachs. It had a small office in Omaha but Howard Buffett had never met its boss, Sidney Weinberg. Buffett thinks Weinberg agreed to see his father because he had a child in tow. Weinberg gave them 30 minutes.
"He was the most famous man on Wall Street,`` Buffett recalls in his just-released biography The Snowball, written by Alice Schroder with his full co-operation and with unfettered access to his files, family and friends.
"As I went out, he [Weinberg] put his arm around me and he said `What stock do you like, Warren?`
"He`d forgotten it all the next day, but I remembered it forever.``
Two weeks ago, amid the rubble of once-mighty investment banks and the trillion dollar US financial crisis, 78-year-old Warren Buffett`s Berkshire Hathaway Inc tipped US$5 billion into Goldman Sachs stock, giving one of the two remaining Wall Street investment banks a credit lifeline. He followed up by pouring US$3 billion into General Electric.
He also sounded warnings about the dire consequences for the US economy if the Senate didn`t accept the White House`s US$700 billion bailout of the financial system; "The nation will face its biggest financial meltdown in American history.``
He described the financial collapses resulting from the sub-prime mortgage crisis as "the United States`s economic Pearl Harbor.``
He reminded television viewers of the US Government`s low cost of borrowing and its staying power for the rescue plan investing in mortgage-related securities (the main cause of the present financial meltdown). Bedrock prices meant it would make money, he said. He just wished he had enough cash to share equally in the bailout.
Buffett also drove home the effect in the present market of derivatives, which he has described as "financial weapons of mass destruction``.
The snowball of the book`s title is an investment metaphor for compounding returns, a method that has made Buffett blindingly wealthy. By Forbes` measure, Buffett`s wealth positions him in any of the top four placings of the world`s wealthiest, depending on the stock prices of the day. This week he`s worth around US$58 billion.
Microsoft founder Bill Gates jockeys for top position on the wealth list and he and Buffett are buddies. Buffett helped Gates and his wife Melinda chose their engagement ring, was guest of honour at their wedding and sometimes shares a game of bridge with them. Theirs is an unlikely pairing given Buffett`s long-held disdain for technology stocks. He was a lone wolf railing against the dotcom revolution until the bubble burst.
The Snowball spans 961 pages . Schroeder, an insurance industry analyst at Morgan Stanley, was commissioned by Buffett to write it after she impressed him with her insight and analysis of Berkshire Hathaway, the company Buffett runs and in which he holds the biggest stake.
In this the first sanctioned biography of the man, we learn he was no ordinary child. At age 11 he declared he would be a millionaire by the time he was 35. By the time he reached that age he was one many times over.
"Among the many lessons, some of the best comes simply from observing him. Here is the first: humility disarms,`` says Schroeder.
Her portrait of Buffett`s childhood is astonishingly frank and intimate. He adored and respected his father, Howard, a grocer`s son who gave up a lowly wage in journalism to become an insurance salesman, then a sharebroker, before entering politics as a senator.
He didn`t appear to have the same affection for his mother, who by all accounts was a temperamental and judgmental woman whose mother, grandmother and later sister ended in mental institutions.
CONT....
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As financial firms collapse and sharemarkets gyrate, commentators and politicians are arguing over the why and what happens next. One man is shrewdly taking action - spending up large, taking keystone investments in flagship companies.
Warren Buffett is the man of the moment, a man in his element. What makes him tick? Denise McNabb delivers an exclusive advance review of Buffett`s first authorised biography.
When each of the Buffett children turned 10 their stockbroker father, Howard, would take them on a trip from their home in Omaha, Nebraska, to the east coast of America.
Young Warren knew exactly where he wanted to visit - the Scott Stamp and Coin Company, the Lionel Train Company, and the New York Stock Exchange.
It was 1940 and memories of the 1929 sharemarket crash were still raw.
On their way to Wall Street, Warren`s father decided to drop by one of the city`s largest brokerage firms, Goldman Sachs. It had a small office in Omaha but Howard Buffett had never met its boss, Sidney Weinberg. Buffett thinks Weinberg agreed to see his father because he had a child in tow. Weinberg gave them 30 minutes.
"He was the most famous man on Wall Street,`` Buffett recalls in his just-released biography The Snowball, written by Alice Schroder with his full co-operation and with unfettered access to his files, family and friends.
"As I went out, he [Weinberg] put his arm around me and he said `What stock do you like, Warren?`
"He`d forgotten it all the next day, but I remembered it forever.``
Two weeks ago, amid the rubble of once-mighty investment banks and the trillion dollar US financial crisis, 78-year-old Warren Buffett`s Berkshire Hathaway Inc tipped US$5 billion into Goldman Sachs stock, giving one of the two remaining Wall Street investment banks a credit lifeline. He followed up by pouring US$3 billion into General Electric.
He also sounded warnings about the dire consequences for the US economy if the Senate didn`t accept the White House`s US$700 billion bailout of the financial system; "The nation will face its biggest financial meltdown in American history.``
He described the financial collapses resulting from the sub-prime mortgage crisis as "the United States`s economic Pearl Harbor.``
He reminded television viewers of the US Government`s low cost of borrowing and its staying power for the rescue plan investing in mortgage-related securities (the main cause of the present financial meltdown). Bedrock prices meant it would make money, he said. He just wished he had enough cash to share equally in the bailout.
Buffett also drove home the effect in the present market of derivatives, which he has described as "financial weapons of mass destruction``.
The snowball of the book`s title is an investment metaphor for compounding returns, a method that has made Buffett blindingly wealthy. By Forbes` measure, Buffett`s wealth positions him in any of the top four placings of the world`s wealthiest, depending on the stock prices of the day. This week he`s worth around US$58 billion.
Microsoft founder Bill Gates jockeys for top position on the wealth list and he and Buffett are buddies. Buffett helped Gates and his wife Melinda chose their engagement ring, was guest of honour at their wedding and sometimes shares a game of bridge with them. Theirs is an unlikely pairing given Buffett`s long-held disdain for technology stocks. He was a lone wolf railing against the dotcom revolution until the bubble burst.
The Snowball spans 961 pages . Schroeder, an insurance industry analyst at Morgan Stanley, was commissioned by Buffett to write it after she impressed him with her insight and analysis of Berkshire Hathaway, the company Buffett runs and in which he holds the biggest stake.
In this the first sanctioned biography of the man, we learn he was no ordinary child. At age 11 he declared he would be a millionaire by the time he was 35. By the time he reached that age he was one many times over.
"Among the many lessons, some of the best comes simply from observing him. Here is the first: humility disarms,`` says Schroeder.
Her portrait of Buffett`s childhood is astonishingly frank and intimate. He adored and respected his father, Howard, a grocer`s son who gave up a lowly wage in journalism to become an insurance salesman, then a sharebroker, before entering politics as a senator.
He didn`t appear to have the same affection for his mother, who by all accounts was a temperamental and judgmental woman whose mother, grandmother and later sister ended in mental institutions.
CONT.......
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dineshsahay-You are cent percent right!!I agree in TOTO!!...
In reply to:
Sit on cash and pospone buying
Posted by : dineshsahay
Investors,
Market continues to be bearish, liquidity is a problem, FII`s are selling constantly and global cues not at all condusive, it is advisable to stay away from buying for some time as market may still go down to 1500 points from here to 9000/9700 sensex. It is better to sit on cash and come out from markets if possible.
On lower levels there are no of good stocks where one can switch to at BSE 9000/9500, e.g. RPL, RIL, L&T, ABBAN Offshore, BHEL, Infosys,NTPC, RCOM,GVK POWER,BHARTI AIRTEL,TCS, TATApower, Tata Motors, Tata steel, Mercator lines, HDFC bank, Dr Reddy`Lab,Sunpharma, Biocon etc
Please do`nt see market to go from here to highs like 20000 in near future unless global situation is improved which is not on cards for next few years, however as india`s ecomnomy is concerned I do not see growth to continue as 8/9% so the market has limited scope to be in range of 9500 to 14500 in coming months. Do not expect miracles at present state of affairs as Indian stock markets will definitely will have impact of global conditions.
There is a very narrow range for traders but for investors medium to long term sell some, hold and sit on cash.
Dinesh Sahay
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what v r seeing is fall out of ,, others problem,, its obvious that if our neighbour`s house burnt than v also have to face some prob,,,as far as india is concern,, nothing has changed over night,, and thats y one has to believe in our economy that largly depands up on our lifestyle,, our culture,, and our values,,
yes,, v r having bad time in stock mkt,, but is a totally coletrall damage,, and v have to face it ,, but ,, the yields of our economic strength will be seen when global senerio will be stable,, and india will emerge as few of the strongest economy of world,, and write it ,, it will goin to happen
as per bottom of mkt is concern,, still 90 to 100 bn doller left in india mkt,, and its 1/3 of total investment made by fii,, so let c ,, how much they draw back,, but v r nearing to the bottom,, and there r tremandous value picking oppertunities,, available in mkt,, start preparing the list of value pick ,, as time is approching for you to invest in it,,
"IF U BELIEVE IN YOUR SELF,, THAN STAND STILL ,, AS U DID TILL TODAY ,, AND FUTURE WILL REWARD YOU .. THANKS "
...
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first of all i will clear one thing the share market is created to help rich.
when market is going up no body talk about it and why big and rich people earning so much. and when market goes down, all government is coming out to help this rich people to bail them out with public tax money, and so again poor people will become poor and rich people with the help of government(gm) become rich again. example if any company is going to bankrupt,gm is come to help them and doing all things like reducing CRR, interest rate and giving subsidry and etc.Government is introducing new tax scemes and putting heavy burden to the comman people By doing so.
if you wont help this companies, and let them bankrupt this companies it will affected to the concern people only a few hundred or thousand. and other people will come out strongly.
but because this people are rich, government helping them and earing crore in black money.
what is share market, which is high point and low point and neutral point.
1.share market is nothing but gambling and to reduce people to poverty by making them investing in share market and loosing all their money in due course. in other word government don`t want poor people to come up and ask question. so every 5 years they make a bull run and poor people in hope of earning will lost all the money and beg again to government and rich people.
2.we will take neutral point, neutral point for share market is when Dollar and Euro is equal to the ratio of 1:1.
today it is 1.35 dollar vs 1 euro (1.36:1).so yet market is at very high point at this level also.
3.market is created high when dollar depreciated against euro. when dollar goes down everything in world will go up like oil, gold,silver,commodity,and all food item. dollar is gone down to 1.60 against 1 euro (1.60:1) and that is a peak period for equity.
4,market is created low when dollar is strong in world market and appreciated against euro, all rate will come down like oil,gold,silver,commodity and food item. (only gold is up due to bank failure) so when dollar and euro will equal to 1:1, that is the lowest period....
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Only 5% of the population invest in equity markets in India. These, too, are currently not buying at current levels. If 5% more population start investing in equities rather than in FD`s, then the sensex will start again making new highs and that too without the help of FII`s. There is a huge potential in Indian markets going forward from this angle....
...
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THANKS to UDAYAN MUKHERJEE AND CNBC for atleast warn us for impending crash....on BHEL - a few months back he advised that we could see very low levels to buy. thanks unayan and cnbc for saving my few thousands.....
In reply to:
CAPITAL PRESERVATION !!!
Posted by : ravipratap61
NOW GENERAL MOTORS is going BANKRUPT.....no place to hide !!!!
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Investors,
Market continues to be bearish, liquidity is a problem, FII`s are selling constantly and global cues not at all condusive, it is advisable to stay away from buying for some time as market may still go down to 1500 points from here to 9000/9700 sensex. It is better to sit on cash and come out from markets if possible.
On lower levels there are no of good stocks where one can switch to at BSE 9000/9500, e.g. RPL, RIL, L&T, ABBAN Offshore, BHEL, Infosys,NTPC, RCOM,GVK POWER,BHARTI AIRTEL,TCS, TATApower, Tata Motors, Tata steel, Mercator lines, HDFC bank, Dr Reddy`Lab,Sunpharma, Biocon etc
Please do`nt see market to go from here to highs like 20000 in near future unless global situation is improved which is not on cards for next few years, however as india`s ecomnomy is concerned I do not see growth to continue as 8/9% so the market has limited scope to be in range of 9500 to 14500 in coming months. Do not expect miracles at present state of affairs as Indian stock markets will definitely will have impact of global conditions.
There is a very narrow range for traders but for investors medium to long term sell some, hold and sit on cash.
Dinesh Sahay...
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The time is to save our market first. I don`t understand why FII`s would have confidence in our markets when the local investors are not ready to buy????????????? We all must be united to save our market. Don`t think of making money, first save the markets. It seems that we are still not out of slavery mentality even after 60 years of independence. ...
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SABHI MITRON KO VIJAYADASHMI KI SUBHKAMNAYE ********
Maa DURGA ham sabhi investors ki is bhyanak khunkhar BHALU(bear) se rakhsa karo...maa Durga is bar subprimasur ka vadd karo aur pure wishwa ko mandi se mukti do. JAI MA DURGE !!!...
In reply to:
CAPITAL PRESERVATION !!!
Posted by : ravipratap61
NOW SEBI chief is acting in haste...THE FM `s yes man -sebi chief and gov RBI are TAKING A DANGEROUS MOVE. again allowing inv thru P -note and hiking crr is not good idea. at least on one front we were heading in right direction- taming inflation slightly...that will again rise. WE need some very good economist like for gov REDDY and
PM manmohan sg to come toga