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Addressed to Ashtrix, dev9, Abhay Kulkarni, abyphilip, adaljaarun, Adwaith, Dakshina murthy, athina, a_senthil_pvi, bababull, bagram, Bhavani27, BullSheetRules, callnput, chief_kamani, nadhi, day_trader, chemi, WhatsUP, DONVITO, googol, hansal77, HK65, DREAM-MODEST, hsnmf, sbalu, kanth15, kinchit s mehta, pup, manionline1, mcprasanth, mohanji, netdo, ORTHODONTIST, pitquote, pranky, pss5588, radhika_nandlal, rajesh chhabria, rashmi26, richestuser, SathyMJ, sd3, aamaadmi, souravkundu, sumit22gupta, vyas_nambiar, totalview, trips1975, TRUETALK, Udayan Mukherjee, TrueCompanion, vam_aru, tara23, venkat_c, venku_raman, ChartGuru, xyz_indian, tally
Part 1 – Strategy..
Strategy on nifty for the the month of November...
Hi All,
Below is the strategy which you coukd implement right now and also it can be implemented at the end of October series. Premiums will change accordingly..
Buy Nifty Fut 90 to 110 @ 4940 (1 Nifty and 2 to 3 Minifty)
Buy 5000 Put @ 250 - 3 Lots
Sell 5100 Call @ 130 - 3 Lots
Sell 4700 Put @ 110 - 2 Lots
Buy 1 5400 Call @ 50 and 1 4400 Put @ 50 (this is your insurance in case of sudden jump and also if your averaging goes wrong. This will protect you)
The strategy is to trade on minifty and decrease the average buy price of your nifty...
Everyday nifty moves atleast 50 points and that means on an average the nifty movement wil be 40*50=2000 points taking there are 40 more sessions till november expiry..
From last few days I am noting down nifty movement after every 25 points and doing a trade (Only in excel to analyse) That means if nifty moves 25 points up I sell 1 minifty and if moves down 25 points I buy 1 minifty. The total number of times i have been able to do the trade in last 9 sessions is 25 times and now at the end I am only left with 1 long position minifty as my holding. Which means I have a made a profit of 24*24*20 = 11500.
(24 times squared off * 24 rs gain each time * Minifty lot size of 20) And therefore my average price of minifty bought is now at 4375. (Last minifty bought @ 4950 - 11500/20 gives me 575 points)
But the big question is that right now market is ranged bound and therefore this cannot go correct everytime and therefore if you are following the above strategy and want to average then I will suggest that you increase the points from 25 to 50 and also after placing 1 average trade the next trade should be double then then first one.. which means for e.g if market falls to 4875 and you buy 1 more minifty lot to average... then now dont buy second lot of minifty at 4825.. insetad wait more and buy @ 4775 and then if it still falls then buy at 4600... In case if market suddenly goes very fast to 4500 or 4400 then at that point the insurance that you have taken by buying 4400 put will give you more then 3 times return and therefore whatever loss you must have got in the average will be recovered...
But if you are able to trade properly and even able to decrease the average price by 10 rs per week then the last result at expiry will be great.. Average can be decreased not only on minifty but also on the Options that you have sold... For e.g if nifty moves 200 to 300 points in 1 direction then you can square off your sold option position depending on the direction and wait for only 50 to 60 points reversal to give you more then 10 points benefit on your average.. Also as nifty moves far away from 1 point then you can short next 100 points and that also increase the average price.. For e.g if mkt moves to 4700 then cover 5100 call and sell 5000 call which will give you atleast 100% more then at what price you are squaring off 5100 at any point of time... And that itself giving you a big gain on your averaging.. Similiarly if mkt moves up 200-300 points then sqare off your short postion on 4700 Put and short next point which is 4800..
You have to do this till last week of expiry and if you square off all the position on monday of the last week of expiry then the returns are maximum..
Now let us see what will be the return at the end and the margin requirements and % gain on that...
Assuming you made only 10 point gain in every week (this can be more depending on how well you trade and how much is the volatility and how much 2 way movement happens) But 10 points is the least I am taking...
Please check Part 2 for returns..
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Addressed to Abhay Kulkarni, abyphilip, adaljaarun, Adwaith, Dakshina murthy, athina, a_senthil_pvi, bababull, bagram, Bhavani27, BullSheetRules, callnput, chief_kamani, nadhi, day_trader, chemi, WhatsUP, DONVITO, googol, hansal77, HK65, DREAM-MODEST, hsnmf, sbalu, kanth15, kinchit s mehta, pup, manionline1, mcprasanth, mohanji, netdo, ORTHODONTIST, pitquote, pranky, pss5588, radhika_nandlal, rajesh chhabria, rashmi26, richestuser, SathyMJ, sd3, souravkundu, sumit22gupta, vyas_nambiar, totalview, trips1975, TRUETALK, Udayan Mukherjee, TrueCompanion, vam_aru, tara23, venkat_c, venku_raman, ChartGuru, xyz_indian, tally
World Bank could run out of money ‘within 12 months’
The Bank, whose job it is to support low-income countries, has had to hand out so much cash in the wake of the financial crisis that its resources could run dry within 12 months.
“By the middle of next year we will face serious constraints,” said its president Robert Zoellick, as he launched a major campaign to persuade rich nations to pour more money into the Washington-based institution.
He conceded that such a task was likely to be extremely difficult, given the difficulties facing countries in the wake of the developed world’s biggest recession since the Second World War. However, Mr Zoellick, speaking at the opening of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Istanbul, said the Bank needed a capital increase of as much as .1bn (£6.9bn) to keep functioning. He said he hoped that its shareholders, including the UK and other leading nations, would decide on resources before its spring meeting next April.
The money would be shared between the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development – the key part of the bank, which lends to poor nations – and the International Financial Corporation (IFC), which lends to companies.
Mr Zoellick said: “We recognise that all countries are under budgetary strain and it is not an easy time to be asking for these things”.
He said that a shortfall of cash for the IFC was a cause for particular concern, Mr Zoellick added, “because one of the issues in this recovery is the hand-off from government stimulus programs to private-sector development.”
The Bank has had to lend significantly more cash than the three-year 0bn programme it committed to last year because of the virulence of the financial and economic crisis. The majority of the money has been spent ensuring the survival of the most vulnerable nations.
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Addressed to Adwaith, Dakshina murthy, athina, a_senthil_pvi, bababull, bagram, Bhavani27, BullSheetRules, callnput, chief_kamani, nadhi, day_trader, chemi, WhatsUP, DONVITO, googol, hansal77, HK65, DREAM-MODEST, hsnmf, sbalu, kinchit s mehta, pup, manionline1, mcprasanth, netdo, ORTHODONTIST, pitquote, pranky, pss5588, radhika_nandlal, rajesh chhabria, rashmi26, richestuser, SathyMJ, sd3, aamaadmi, souravkundu, sumit22gupta, vyas_nambiar, totalview, trips1975, TRUETALK, Udayan Mukherjee, TrueCompanion, vam_aru, tara23, venkat_c, venku_raman, ChartGuru, xyz_indian, tally
If u download using torrents then here r couple of links for that..
One is a complete DVD..
thepiratebay. org/torrent/4552038/Chris_Martenson_Crash_Course_DVD_-_PAL_-_ISO_File
thepiratebay.o rg/torrent/4586700/Chris_Martenson_Crash_Course_Dec_2008
Please share it with everyone..
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Addressed to Abhay Kulkarni, abyphilip, adaljaarun, Adwaith, Dakshina murthy, athina, a_senthil_pvi, bababull, bagram, Bhavani27, BullSheetRules, callnput, chief_kamani, nadhi, day_trader, chemi, WhatsUP, DONVITO, googol, hansal77, HK65, DREAM-MODEST, hsnmf, sbalu, kanth15, kinchit s mehta, pup, manionline1, mcprasanth, mohanji, netdo, ORTHODONTIST, pitquote, radhika_nandlal, rajesh chhabria, rashmi26, richestuser, SathyMJ, sd3, aamaadmi, souravkundu, sumit22gupta, vyas_nambiar, totalview, trips1975, TRUETALK, Udayan Mukherjee, TrueCompanion, vam_aru, tara23, venkat_c, venku_raman, ChartGuru, xyz_indian, tally
ww w.chrismartenson.c om/crashcourse
If u have time then register here and watch the 3 hour video:-)
Regards,
Deepak
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Addressed to Abhay Kulkarni, abyphilip, adaljaarun, Dakshina murthy, BullSheetRules, callnput, chief_kamani, nadhi, day_trader, chemi, WhatsUP, DONVITO, googol, hansal77, HK65, DREAM-MODEST, hsnmf, sbalu, kanth15, kinchit s mehta, pup, manionline1, mcprasanth, mohanji, netdo, ORTHODONTIST, pitquote, pranky, radhika_nandlal, rajesh chhabria, rashmi26, richestuser, SathyMJ, sd3, aamaadmi, souravkundu, sumit22gupta, vyas_nambiar, totalview, trips1975, TRUETALK, Udayan Mukherjee, TrueCompanion, vam_aru, tara23, venkat_c, venku_raman, ChartGuru, xyz_indian, tally
The Dangers of Fiat Money: -End the Fed- by Ron Paul
seekingalpha. com/article/163500-the-dangers-of-fiat-money-end-the-fed-by-ron-paul
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Addressed to abyphilip, adaljaarun, Adwaith, Dakshina murthy, athina, a_senthil_pvi, bababull, bagram, Bhavani27, BullSheetRules, callnput, chief_kamani, nadhi, day_trader, chemi, WhatsUP, DONVITO, googol, hansal77, HK65, DREAM-MODEST, hsnmf, sbalu, kanth15, kinchit s mehta, pup, manionline1, mcprasanth, mohanji, netdo, ORTHODONTIST, pitquote, pranky, pss5588, radhika_nandlal, rajesh chhabria, rashmi26, richestuser, SathyMJ, sd3, aamaadmi, souravkundu, sumit22gupta, vyas_nambiar, totalview, trips1975, TRUETALK, Udayan Mukherjee, TrueCompanion, vam_aru, tara23, venkat_c, venku_raman, ChartGuru, xyz_indian, tally
Tracking the recovery
ww w.epi. org/analysis_and_opinion/entry/tracking_the_recovery_one_in_four_households_has_suffered_a_layoff/
Survey results are here
epi.3cdn. net/4fc2e76fd3593d283f_qtm6bx19l.pdf
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Addressed to Abhay Kulkarni, abyphilip, adaljaarun, Adwaith, Dakshina murthy, athina, a_senthil_pvi, bababull, BullSheetRules, callnput, chief_kamani, nadhi, day_trader, chemi, WhatsUP, DONVITO, googol, hansal77, HK65, DREAM-MODEST, hsnmf, sbalu, kanth15, kinchit s mehta, pup, manionline1, mcprasanth, mohanji, netdo, ORTHODONTIST, pitquote, pranky, pss5588, radhika_nandlal, rajesh chhabria, rashmi26, richestuser, SathyMJ, sd3, aamaadmi, souravkundu, sumit22gupta, vyas_nambiar, totalview, trips1975, TRUETALK, Udayan Mukherjee, TrueCompanion, vam_aru, tara23, venkat_c, venku_raman, ChartGuru, xyz_indian, tally
Part - 1
Ten Reasons for an Imminent Stock Market Crash
1. Insider Selling: An Oversupply of paper
Insiders have been quick to recognize that the market is hungry for paper. Thus, they are selling shares, and issuing debt and/or equity at an alarming rate. Investment bankers, who were very recently idle, now have a backlog of paper ready to go to market which will eventually flood the market and offset the fragile balance of supply and demand.
Why are they doing this? They are cashing out while they can. Nobody understands a business better than its insiders. Irrespective of what the Wall Street -paper pushers- say, if this is the next bull market, insiders would be buying shares, not selling.
2. A Rally Based on Short Covering, Low Volume, and Bankrupt Companies
The rally since the March lows has been relentless and sharp, and one of the primary catalysts for its vicious move up is the combination of low volume with short covering, especially in high beta, low quality stocks. Liquidity is exiting the system, not entering and for some reason, those who are still trading are infatuated with such names as FNM, FRE, WaMu, AIG and Lehman.
These are not the signs of a healthy system rather it is panic buying similar to that of the NASDAQ in 2000 when investors piled into internet stocks based on -page views- given the absence of revenue as a basis for investing. Even rational investors began to question the old business model of revenues minus expenses equals net income. They did not understand why a solid brick and mortar business would not be as -sexy- of a buy as the profitless internet companies. We all know how that turned out.
3. Bullish Sentiment and Market Psychology
At present date, market consensus is short-term bullish and long-term bearish as a result of the aforementioned buying frenzy. Everyone wants to buy the markets and exit before the bubble pops. Guess what? If you want to participate in this bubble—it’s too late. The time to buy the markets was when everyone was bearish, when the WSJ had an article titled -Dow 5000,- and the S&P was at 666. Even if you missed the move from 666 to 800, you could have bought the markets at S&P 800. But with the S&P at 1100, everybody fully invested, and Wall Street shops paper like there is no tomorrow, right now is the time to sell!
Irrespective of factors like momentum and technical indicators, selling is wise because momentum and technical indicators fail to incorporate deteriorating fundamentals in their formula, and therefore have no way of detecting -market moving- bad news. In an environment where fundamentals deteriorate and equities get more and more overvalued on a daily basis, any taste of bad news can crack the momentum.The market has become delusional and is living in fantasyland in the same way people were dancing in the Titanic on the eve before it crashed into an iceberg.
4. Short the USD, Long Everything Else
The market is crowded in one trade—short the dollar and long everything else—a dollar carry trade. For example, you short the dollar and buy Macy’s (M) shares, Gold, Silver, the Brazilian Bovespa, Venezuelan bonds, New Zealand Kiwi, Washington Mutual, Goldman Sachs (GS), you buy anything and you do not discriminate. With the positioning in the market so concentrated, we have the potential for a moral hazard as when the trend reverses, there will be no one on the other side. This is why markets crash!
Correlation is not causality; we can say the same thing by blaming the USD weakness for every market movement. Is everything bad for the buck or is the dollar bad and everything else is good? The short selling inherent in the dollar carry trade puts added pressure on the dollar and reinforces its inverse link with risk appetite. This also implies a substantial rebound in the dollar once stock markets globally sell off because carry traders will need to unwind their bets by buying back the dollars that they shorted.
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3 buses got burnt on their own in Mumbai, these were pruchased by BEST authorities, any one questioning these buggers, corupt people how they purchased low quality buses from China, cheers, Training8m, Australia...
Unity Infraproj
Posted by : venkat_c
Date :16th Jul, 2009 - 21:20
BSE: Rs 273.50 ( -2.29 % ), NSE: Rs. 275.15 ( -1.66 % )
Unity Infraprojects belong to Mr. K.K. Avarsekar who has dubious distinction of having built "Matoshree" the residence of Bal Thackerey during the times they ruled Maharashtra !!! Training8m, Australia...
Just sell wipro, this company named western India oil products limited earlier will be bankrupt very soon, just sell wipro and exit counter, most unethical company in world !!! Training8m, Australia...
ITC
Posted by : venkat_c
Date :16th Jul, 2009 - 21:01
BSE: Rs 217.00 ( -0.05 % ), NSE: Rs. 217.35 ( 0.05 % )
Sell Wipro and exit completely, this oil and vanaspati stock will bite dust most unethical company in the world and management will be found begging on streets of Bangalore traffic signals !!! Training8m, Australia...
Unitech
Posted by : venkat_c
Date :16th Jul, 2009 - 20:59
BSE: Rs 74.60 ( 0.67 % ), NSE: Rs. 74.70 ( 0.81 % )
Sell Unitech and exit completely, cheers, Training8m, Australia...
SBI
Posted by : venkat_c
Date :16th Jul, 2009 - 20:57
BSE: Rs 1607.35 ( -1.62 % ), NSE: Rs. 1604.20 ( -2.00 % )
Sell SBI, huge exposure in prime and subprime lending, chuck out of the portfolio completely, venkat, Training8m, Australia...
FII`s hold 100 times this amount as deliveries to pump in market, take care, Venkat, Training8m, Australia...
See , some people had bought sampre Nutrition that some US chocolate company will tie up and lot of news, and media coverage all bluff. The company is now delisted, Kedia Infotech, the company is now delsited, some people are stuck with 5 lac shares at average of Rs. 2 each, what is your say on this , Cheers, Venkat, Training8m, Australia...
Its a established fact that the corrupt politicians drive the institution and the stock price, best of Luck to you investors, if you are buying the stock, cheers, Training8m, Australia...
IFCI was a ailing finance company of The Indian Government, the work culture is still embedded with highest levels of corruption, the Non Performing client base and the people who have gone scott free from the grip of the Goverment because they were corrupt politicians kins or near relatives or the corrupt politicians themselves. Time and again whenever they need funds, they have taken this company as their chief financier and utilized funds and never returned the money. We do not wish to discuss any levels for this scrip as this is not even in Investment Grade. Cheers, Venkat, Training8m, Australia...
There has been debate on how long is the market uptrend seen. Well, the investors are advised to have tremendous caution as the current uptrend is seen to be halted in the elliot wave pattern, and also the MACD indicators, the swing which has set in has no relevance to the technical and fundamental of any stock or Nifty as a whole.
The surge was only a buoyancy due to local political event of UPA winning the elections and revoted to power. However, the economic recession looms large as many job losses are noted. There has been inadequate information by the Indian Government on the Jobless rate of the nation. The feel good factor is still not good with small investors who continue to feel the pain.
Before the second bout of big recession is announced and the global economic recession deepens, the big Institutions have to rethink on the India strategy.
Our advice still remains to exit markets entirely and remain in cash. Indian economy is not cushioned from Global economic factors. The study on the sectoral performance is continuing at our research wing. Till then the advice is sell at cmp and exit.
I am Venkat from Training8m, Australia...
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