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I have been a fundamental investor in this market from last 12 years. I gained much in this Dream Bull Run (2003-2008) based on my experience I exited almost from the market when was at 5800 level Nifty. Even then my pocket eroded nearly 30% from the peak of my portfolio value. Investing in stocks is still my hobby only.
My investment style: Basically I am a defensive investor with high-risk appetite. As I earlier said I couldn’t spare whole time in this market, So, I will restrict to limited stocks (3-5 only). This year we cannot see much upside in the market, but the long-term growth story at home is still intact.
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Market outlook in this week (18-08-2008):

Hold your positions targeting the previous targets given on 04-08-08.

Previous weeks Market outlook (04-08-2008):

Last week my calls were not activated. This week too I will give the same call means Go short Nifty above 4550 targeting the lower end of the band having T1:4325 T2:4205 T3:4075 with a stiff stop loss at 4625. Actually the short term trend is UP and will get the further strength if it crosses 4775. But, the signals we are getting replicate the ‘classic example of a bear market’.

Buy RPL for medium term: Be and make
THURSDAY, JULY 31, 2008
Buy RPL for medium term (3-6months) above 165/- with
T1: 174/-
T2:185/-
T3:202/- with a stop loss of 154/-
Market outlook –short term (17-08-2008):
Absolutely the same was happened as I expected in the previous march month call. This is the time to review the call.
Now, some negative factors turning to be positive factors and some of the points not changed. Markets are factored in all the bad news (which I have predicted on march08). So, from here we will see some good news like (consolidation of crude, inflation and interest rates;) and some bad news (like shrinking of margins, upcoming elections, Low FII inflows etc,). So in my view from here markets will have both good news and bad news. So, markets are range-bounded between 3800-4800 and best way to trade is ‘Buy on every dip’. It is time to reconstruct your portfolio and acquire good stocks in your bag.
Market outlook –short term (27-3-2008):
It is the basic point to understand risk evolved in the equity market by equity investor. Valuations, sentiments, market conditions wholly change very sharply, to gain more from the market better to have much knowledge and the capability to verdict on the conditions. Strictly speaking, there is no such 'positive news' for the market in the near-term even evaluating ourselves, basing the following points:
1. Industrial growth slows - down
2. Inflation is at 6month high
3.Raising Crude prices
4.Drop in GDP growth
5.Budget favored to public not to the market
6.US recession signals
7.FIIs turning net sellers in Markets (inc. India) till now in this year.
8.Govt to face elections within a year, means subsidies cost will grow.
9.Raising rupee hitting the exporters
10.Nuclear deal in the bumpy road
The following will be the triggers for the market:
1.Quarterly results may be below the expected.
2.New problem in the pregnant stage i.e., Mid-term elections issue to be born in the near term
so many so many
Government may not be able to regulate the above at this point of time, bcoz FM will start thinking about the welfare of the public due to the alarm for elections already rung.

Conclusion:

The stocks I prefer are purely based on the fundamentals not on technicals so should hold at least 6-18 months.

Present my holdings (As on 04-08-2008):
1.RPL @ 158/-
2. RPL Future @ 165/- of sep08
3. Bartronics
Stocks interested to Pick:

From large caps for short term ArevaTD, BHEL and Alstom projects. From Mid cap for long term ICSA, Tata metaliks and alpa labs etc.,


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Happy Investing



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