Chief, i am not much worried about rate hike.It seems that more than the markets,the analysts in cnbc is more worried about rate hikes.Don`t blame them , they have to run their shop.,IN 2008 when the market was at 21000 ,the repo rate was at 7.75%.Now even after the increase it is 5% only.A lot of room still left for upmove.I am not worried about inflation also.We can not keep the rate of of rice and onion at rs.5 forever.Let it increase and let the farmers also make some money.Think about inclusive growth.,In 80`s a cup of tea was sold at 10 paise per cup.Now it is 5 rs.per cup.How many of us stopped drinking tea because of this.,In US the same cup of tea is sold for 50 rs(converted to INR).When we start selling tea at rs.50 we will be called a `SUPER POWER`...

Thanks headstead for your reply....

MOVING WITH THE LEVELS NIFTY HITS INTRA DAY HIGH OF 5269.95 FINALLY CLOSED AT 5262.80 REGARDS, Manish Bothra, Money_Mystery, Kolkata...

Jassi Khangura Fri, Mar 19 05:38 AM The controversial passage by the Upper House of the Women`s Reservation Bill providing one-third reservation for women in Parliament and state assemblies has exercised many minds. On the eve of the Rajya Sabha ruckus on this issue, I happened to hear numerous critical voices in the Central Hall — but none prepared to either go on record or convey their views to their own leadership! So much for testosterone. As a man, I wonder what choice India really had. As a father of a son and a daughter, I feel the same: for I am all too aware that the path for my daughter to enter politics would be much rockier than that my son would walk — assuming, that is, that either would wish to! And as an MLA, I wonder how we could have accepted for so long a system that delivers today in the Punjab Vidhan Sabha of 117 members just seven women — three in the ruling alliance, four in the opposition Congress. I also know that when my mother contested and narrowly lost the 2002 Punjab assembly election she was not the first choice; she only contested because, at the time, both my father and I were British citizens. But I also know that as a woman she was disadvantaged, treated as an underdog because her principal opponent was male. Of course, many female candidates have defeated men, but far more have lost. Hence, the real need for women-only contests. One argument against the quota is that it is "anti-meritocracy". But India`s political arena is hardly a fully fledged meritocracy. Criminals, members of "favoured families" and film stars gain tickets to stand, rather than those who have proven themselves in their respective parties over time. But why I really support the new bill is that in spite of 63-odd years of independence, India still remains an extremely male-dominated society. We have just not been able to ensure sufficient female participation in the institutions of state; and sex discrimination is as bad today as it was in 1947. Women are still expected to be good mothers, wives, teachers and nurses, but not to climb the ladders of governance. None of the remarkable women we think of first today might have achieved their position because of quotas; but we have to think how many women are simply excluded without those quotas. Excluded due to favouritism, nepotism or capitalism. The quota system may not mean that just any woman will be shovelled into a position as an MP or an MLA. But it does mean that those women who are already long-standing party members, or who wish to transit into politics from another field, can stake a claim to do so more easily. This bill may yet be undermined if the new female legislators commonly turn out to be wives of legislators, pushed by their husbands into a position where they will be "caretakers" of the seat until it is once again available to men. This bill must open the door to legislative participation to those families that have not been involved before. In any case, with fewer seats for men both main parties must ensure that those selected are from the better of the available options. As in India, internationally, politics and corporate life have a structure overwhelmingly biased towards men. India can lead the world with the passing of this bill, achieving an elected representative ratio that even the UK and the US do not have. It is indeed a bold and brave move, but it`s the kind of move that only a country like India would take. We don`t go by the "norms" here. We never have. And when it results in a bill like this being passed, I`m especially glad for our independent ways. Young women, in particular, should be inspired by this bill. Politics has suddenly become a genuine option for them. Half our population may now start to think differently about how this country is run. That`s a 100 per cent increase in brain power applied to our national issues. Let no one say that will only benefit the women who form 33 per cent of the House. The real test for the main political parties is whether they will now abolish their mahila wings and introduce a similar quota within their own party organisations. For good governance starts at home and the "tokenism" of the past has to be well and truly confined to the dustbin. If grown men cry as a result, they will have to wipe their own cowardly tears. The writer represents Qila Raipur in the Punjab assembly express@expressindia. com ...

Thu, Mar 18 03:04 PM For foreign universities, which haven`t yet recovered fully from the aftershocks of the worldwide recession, India presents, to quote a word re-introduced into the English vocabulary by Tim Burton`s Alice in Wonderland , a `frabjous` opportunity. More than 100,000 students leave Indian shores annually to study at universities abroad. Their presence has made foreign universities wake up to the incontrovertible fact that there`s another `creamy layer` below these students abroad whose families are prepared to pay upwards of Rs 2.5 lakh a year for quality education. Profs debate Foreign Univ Bill What foreign universities Bill can`t do International students are the economic mainstay of foreign universities, but these institutions are not in a position to meet the demand for the education they provide on their own campuses back home. This untapped market makes the business of overseas campuses that much more lucrative. For over a decade, foreign universities have been lobbying hard for the passage of the Foreign Education Providers Bill, which has been a pet project of HRD minister Kapil Sibal. The most recent of these exploratory visits was that of Robert A. Brown, president of Boston University, who was in the Capital in January to plan collaborations with leading universities here. He said there was an insatiable appetite for quality education in India and collaborations would mutually benefit both countries. US`s Georgia Institute of Technology announced its plan to set up campuses in Hyderabad and Visakhapatnam as soon as the Bill gets Parliament nod. Central Michigan University, meanwhile, has taken another route to plant its flag in India. It has been offering a collaborative MBA programme with the Jawaharlal Nehru Institute of Technology, Hyderabad, for the past five years. Experts associated with these universities explain the economic logic of their plans for India: the proliferation of private institutions in the country-especially in engineering, medicine, management and law - that charged fees upwards of Rs 2.5 lakh a year was evidence of the vast market waiting to be tapped. These institutions attract the second layer of the country`s higher education market. These are students whose families can`t afford foreign education (upwards of Rs 15 lakh a year), but want to be in the top four favourite streams. India, according the now-defunct National Knowledge Commission, needs 1,500 universities, compared with about 350 now, to raise the enrollment numbers from 7 per cent of the population aged 18-25 to developed country averages. But even before the Bill got the cabinet`s nod, Indian universities had initiated the process of collaborating with their international peers to offer degrees or diplomas. A National University of Educational Planning and Administration (NEPA) report in 2008 pegged the number of these institutions at more than 130. For Bangalore University vice- chancellor A. N. Prabhu Deva, collaboration is the way forward. "It will help a higher education institution rise to the standards of its foreign partner," he says. But for this collaboration to become meaningful, says R. Govinda, NEPA V-C, teaching must go hand in hand with research. "Only then will quality education and foreign collaborations be meaningful," he says. Either way, for foreign universities, this is a winwin situation. Narayanan Ramaswamy, executive director of the management consultancy KPMG, points to the "massive demand supply gap" driving the international higher education market. Reproduced From Mail Today. Copyright 2010. MTNPL. All rights reserved ...

Dear All, Its ShoCkInG!!!! Today my Stock Idea message on Century Ply got vanished/deleted from the message board.....its Disgusting....Why so happened?????? Today morning I posted a Stock Idea call on Century Ply and the message was@ STOCK IDEA@ CENTURY PLY LOOKS GOOD ONLY ABOVE 55 FOR A TARGET OF UPTO 59-61. AVOID ANY LONG BELOW 55. After an hour or so the Target got HIT where it hits a high of 59.40 from the odd 55 levels. How can they remove my message from the message board?? Its SHAMEFUL on the part of message board management!!! Its an UGLY act afterall!!! Kind Regards, Manish Bothra, Kolkata. ...

Dear All, My Stock Idea message on Century Ply got vanished/deleted from the message board.....its Disgusting....Why so happened?????? Today morning I posted a stock idea call on Century ply and the message was@ STOCK IDEA@ CENTURY PLY LOOKS GOOD ONLY ABOVE 55 FOR A TARGET OF UPTO 59-61. AVOID ANY LONG BELOW 55. After an hour or so the Target got HIT where it hits a high of 59.40 from the odd 55 levels. How can they remove my message from the message board?? Its SHAMEFUL on the part of message board management!!! Its an UGLY act afterall!!! Kind Regards, Manish Bothra, Money_Mystery, Kolkata. ...

Cane diversion to ethanol - seems a likelihood
Dwindling ethanol exports out of Brazil in 2009 stemmed largely from the coun­try’s struggle to meet its own domestic ethanol demand. When India experi­enced a severe sugar production short­age in 2009, the resulting high sugar prices gave Brazilian mills an incentive to boost sugar production at the expense of ethanol output. UNICA said that the region’s sugar pro­duction from the start of the harvest sea­son in April 2009 was 6.53 percent greater than the amount produced in the same pe­riod in 2008. Meanwhile, accumulated ethanol production over the same period suffered a 7.69 percent reduction. According to UNICA, in the second half of December last year, the proportion of cane destined for sugar production has gone down. In the second half of Decem­ber last year, 71.09 percent of the cane pro­cessed went toward ethanol production, and only 28.91 percent to sugar produc­tion. In comparison: Since the beginning of the most recent sugarcane season through the end of December, 43.31 per­cent of the cane processed went toward sugar production, with only 56.69 percent toward ethanol production. UNICA President Marcos Jank said in January that, while high sugar prices hit ethanol production in 2009 and contributed to higher ethanol prices, other factors played a part. “The principal fac­tor that explains recent high ethanol prices has received little comment: the global financial crisis, which hit the sec­tor hard,” Jank wrote in an opinion piece for Brazil’s largest daily newspaper. “In the first half of 2009, the lack of liquidity in the credit market forced sev­eral firms to sell huge volumes of ethanol at greatly depressed prices, below the costs of production, to be able to meet capital needs. This caused consumption to explode — an almost 30 percent increase compared to the same period in 2008,” he said. Persistent rains in the second half of 2009, which compromised sugarcane harvesting and ethanol output, also exacerbated the tight supply-demand balance. On the demand side, flex-fuel vehicles represent nearly 40 percent of Brazil’s car fleet and around 90 percent of all new car sales. The vehicles’ popularity — and ethanol often priced lower than gasoline —resulted in Brazilian ethanol consump­tion rising by 78 percent over the last three years, compared to just a 3 percent increase in gasoline consumption. Observers question whether an in­creased reliance on Brazil — a country struggling to meet its own internal etha­nol demand — is the smart path forward.
Rebound Scenario
The country could still ramp up produc­tion, however. As mentioned, Brazilian mills already have started boosting their ethanol production at the expense of sugar production, despite attractive sug­ar prices. There’s also a good chance that rains won’t disrupt sugarcane harvests as heavily this year. Another factor to con­sider is the ongoing investment in new ethanol mills in Brazil. Despite the diffi­cult credit and financing environment, 23 new ethanol plants were built in 2009.
California demand for ethanol could be a boon for Brazil, especially after LCFS goes into effect. The California Energy Commission (CEC) projects the state’s ethanol demand moving from 1.2 billion gallons in 2010 to almost doubling to 2.1 billion gallons by 2020, even under a low demand scenario for gasoline. Under a high demand scenario, CEC has ethanol demand at 2.6 billion gallons by 2020. Domestic ethanol producers point to employment and national security fac­tors when touting biofuel made from U.S. crops. However, as federal and state regulators move to curb greenhouse gas emissions, while simultaneously crank­ing up blending mandates each year, and consumers continue to demand lower prices at the pump, Brazilian ethanol imports look more and more attractive as a means of relieving supply tightness in the United States.

But is a focus on Brazilian ethanol, a volatile commodity with a rocky history of supplying the United States, the right path forward? As government officials pursue a carbon reduction strategy that may give preferential treatment to cane-based eth­anol over corn-based ethanol, domestic ethanol groups are pushing their product and fighting against carbon policies.

...

Cane diversion to ethanol - seems a likelihood
Dwindling ethanol exports out of Brazil in 2009 stemmed largely from the coun­try’s struggle to meet its own domestic ethanol demand. When India experi­enced a severe sugar production short­age in 2009, the resulting high sugar prices gave Brazilian mills an incentive to boost sugar production at the expense of ethanol output. UNICA said that the region’s sugar pro­duction from the start of the harvest sea­son in April 2009 was 6.53 percent greater than the amount produced in the same pe­riod in 2008. Meanwhile, accumulated ethanol production over the same period suffered a 7.69 percent reduction. According to UNICA, in the second half of December last year, the proportion of cane destined for sugar production has gone down. In the second half of Decem­ber last year, 71.09 percent of the cane pro­cessed went toward ethanol production, and only 28.91 percent to sugar produc­tion. In comparison: Since the beginning of the most recent sugarcane season through the end of December, 43.31 per­cent of the cane processed went toward sugar production, with only 56.69 percent toward ethanol production. UNICA President Marcos Jank said in January that, while high sugar prices hit ethanol production in 2009 and contributed to higher ethanol prices, other factors played a part. “The principal fac­tor that explains recent high ethanol prices has received little comment: the global financial crisis, which hit the sec­tor hard,” Jank wrote in an opinion piece for Brazil’s largest daily newspaper. “In the first half of 2009, the lack of liquidity in the credit market forced sev­eral firms to sell huge volumes of ethanol at greatly depressed prices, below the costs of production, to be able to meet capital needs. This caused consumption to explode — an almost 30 percent increase compared to the same period in 2008,” he said. Persistent rains in the second half of 2009, which compromised sugarcane harvesting and ethanol output, also exacerbated the tight supply-demand balance. On the demand side, flex-fuel vehicles represent nearly 40 percent of Brazil’s car fleet and around 90 percent of all new car sales. The vehicles’ popularity — and ethanol often priced lower than gasoline —resulted in Brazilian ethanol consump­tion rising by 78 percent over the last three years, compared to just a 3 percent increase in gasoline consumption. Observers question whether an in­creased reliance on Brazil — a country struggling to meet its own internal etha­nol demand — is the smart path forward.
Rebound Scenario
The country could still ramp up produc­tion, however. As mentioned, Brazilian mills already have started boosting their ethanol production at the expense of sugar production, despite attractive sug­ar prices. There’s also a good chance that rains won’t disrupt sugarcane harvests as heavily this year. Another factor to con­sider is the ongoing investment in new ethanol mills in Brazil. Despite the diffi­cult credit and financing environment, 23 new ethanol plants were built in 2009.
California demand for ethanol could be a boon for Brazil, especially after LCFS goes into effect. The California Energy Commission (CEC) projects the state’s ethanol demand moving from 1.2 billion gallons in 2010 to almost doubling to 2.1 billion gallons by 2020, even under a low demand scenario for gasoline. Under a high demand scenario, CEC has ethanol demand at 2.6 billion gallons by 2020. Domestic ethanol producers point to employment and national security fac­tors when touting biofuel made from U.S. crops. However, as federal and state regulators move to curb greenhouse gas emissions, while simultaneously crank­ing up blending mandates each year, and consumers continue to demand lower prices at the pump, Brazilian ethanol imports look more and more attractive as a means of relieving supply tightness in the United States.

But is a focus on Brazilian ethanol, a volatile commodity with a rocky history of supplying the United States, the right path forward? As government officials pursue a carbon reduction strategy that may give preferential treatment to cane-based eth­anol over corn-based ethanol, domestic ethanol groups are pushing their product and fighting against carbon policies.

All this could put the entire future of the renewable fuels market in question. If federal law requires renewable fuels and other state, regional and possibly federal LCFS programs require a re­duced role of certain renewable fuels, then what does the future hold?

...

Cane diversion to ethanol - seems a likelihood
Dwindling ethanol exports out of Brazil in 2009 stemmed largely from the coun­try’s struggle to meet its own domestic ethanol demand. When India experi­enced a severe sugar production short­age in 2009, the resulting high sugar prices gave Brazilian mills an incentive to boost sugar production at the expense of ethanol output. UNICA said that the region’s sugar pro­duction from the start of the harvest sea­son in April 2009 was 6.53 percent greater than the amount produced in the same pe­riod in 2008. Meanwhile, accumulated ethanol production over the same period suffered a 7.69 percent reduction. According to UNICA, in the second half of December last year, the proportion of cane destined for sugar production has gone down. In the second half of Decem­ber last year, 71.09 percent of the cane pro­cessed went toward ethanol production, and only 28.91 percent to sugar produc­tion. In comparison: Since the beginning of the most recent sugarcane season through the end of December, 43.31 per­cent of the cane processed went toward sugar production, with only 56.69 percent toward ethanol production. UNICA President Marcos Jank said in January that, while high sugar prices hit ethanol production in 2009 and contributed to higher ethanol prices, other factors played a part. “The principal fac­tor that explains recent high ethanol prices has received little comment: the global financial crisis, which hit the sec­tor hard,” Jank wrote in an opinion piece for Brazil’s largest daily newspaper. “In the first half of 2009, the lack of liquidity in the credit market forced sev­eral firms to sell huge volumes of ethanol at greatly depressed prices, below the costs of production, to be able to meet capital needs. This caused consumption to explode — an almost 30 percent increase compared to the same period in 2008,” he said. Persistent rains in the second half of 2009, which compromised sugarcane harvesting and ethanol output, also exacerbated the tight supply-demand balance. On the demand side, flex-fuel vehicles represent nearly 40 percent of Brazil’s car fleet and around 90 percent of all new car sales. The vehicles’ popularity — and ethanol often priced lower than gasoline —resulted in Brazilian ethanol consump­tion rising by 78 percent over the last three years, compared to just a 3 percent increase in gasoline consumption. Observers question whether an in­creased reliance on Brazil — a country struggling to meet its own internal etha­nol demand — is the smart path forward.
Rebound Scenario
The country could still ramp up produc­tion, however. As mentioned, Brazilian mills already have started boosting their ethanol production at the expense of sugar production, despite attractive sug­ar prices. There’s also a good chance that rains won’t disrupt sugarcane harvests as heavily this year. Another factor to con­sider is the ongoing investment in new ethanol mills in Brazil. Despite the diffi­cult credit and financing environment, 23 new ethanol plants were built in 2009.
California demand for ethanol could be a boon for Brazil, especially after LCFS goes into effect. The California Energy Commission (CEC) projects the state’s ethanol demand moving from 1.2 billion gallons in 2010 to almost doubling to 2.1 billion gallons by 2020, even under a low demand scenario for gasoline. Under a high demand scenario, CEC has ethanol demand at 2.6 billion gallons by 2020. Domestic ethanol producers point to employment and national security fac­tors when touting biofuel made from U.S. crops. However, as federal and state regulators move to curb greenhouse gas emissions, while simultaneously crank­ing up blending mandates each year, and consumers continue to demand lower prices at the pump, Brazilian ethanol imports look more and more attractive as a means of relieving supply tightness in the United States.

But is a focus on Brazilian ethanol, a volatile commodity with a rocky history of supplying the United States, the right path forward? As government officials pursue a carbon reduction strategy that may give preferential treatment to cane-based eth­anol over corn-based ethanol, domestic ethanol groups are pushing their product and fighting against carbon policies.

All this could put the entire future of the renewable fuels market in question. If federal law requires renewable fuels and other state, regional and possibly federal LCFS programs require a re­duced role of certain renewable fuels, then what does the future hold?

...

Cane diversion to ethanol - seems a likelihood
Dwindling ethanol exports out of Brazil in 2009 stemmed largely from the coun­try’s struggle to meet its own domestic ethanol demand. When India experi­enced a severe sugar production short­age in 2009, the resulting high sugar prices gave Brazilian mills an incentive to boost sugar production at the expense of ethanol output. UNICA said that the region’s sugar pro­duction from the start of the harvest sea­son in April 2009 was 6.53 percent greater than the amount produced in the same pe­riod in 2008. Meanwhile, accumulated ethanol production over the same period suffered a 7.69 percent reduction. According to UNICA, in the second half of December last year, the proportion of cane destined for sugar production has gone down. In the second half of Decem­ber last year, 71.09 percent of the cane pro­cessed went toward ethanol production, and only 28.91 percent to sugar produc­tion. In comparison: Since the beginning of the most recent sugarcane season through the end of December, 43.31 per­cent of the cane processed went toward sugar production, with only 56.69 percent toward ethanol production. UNICA President Marcos Jank said in January that, while high sugar prices hit ethanol production in 2009 and contributed to higher ethanol prices, other factors played a part. “The principal fac­tor that explains recent high ethanol prices has received little comment: the global financial crisis, which hit the sec­tor hard,” Jank wrote in an opinion piece for Brazil’s largest daily newspaper. “In the first half of 2009, the lack of liquidity in the credit market forced sev­eral firms to sell huge volumes of ethanol at greatly depressed prices, below the costs of production, to be able to meet capital needs. This caused consumption to explode — an almost 30 percent increase compared to the same period in 2008,” he said. Persistent rains in the second half of 2009, which compromised sugarcane harvesting and ethanol output, also exacerbated the tight supply-demand balance. On the demand side, flex-fuel vehicles represent nearly 40 percent of Brazil’s car fleet and around 90 percent of all new car sales. The vehicles’ popularity — and ethanol often priced lower than gasoline —resulted in Brazilian ethanol consump­tion rising by 78 percent over the last three years, compared to just a 3 percent increase in gasoline consumption. Observers question whether an in­creased reliance on Brazil — a country struggling to meet its own internal etha­nol demand — is the smart path forward.
Rebound Scenario
The country could still ramp up produc­tion, however. As mentioned, Brazilian mills already have started boosting their ethanol production at the expense of sugar production, despite attractive sug­ar prices. There’s also a good chance that rains won’t disrupt sugarcane harvests as heavily this year. Another factor to con­sider is the ongoing investment in new ethanol mills in Brazil. Despite the diffi­cult credit and financing environment, 23 new ethanol plants were built in 2009.
California demand for ethanol could be a boon for Brazil, especially after LCFS goes into effect. The California Energy Commission (CEC) projects the state’s ethanol demand moving from 1.2 billion gallons in 2010 to almost doubling to 2.1 billion gallons by 2020, even under a low demand scenario for gasoline. Under a high demand scenario, CEC has ethanol demand at 2.6 billion gallons by 2020. Domestic ethanol producers point to employment and national security fac­tors when touting biofuel made from U.S. crops. However, as federal and state regulators move to curb greenhouse gas emissions, while simultaneously crank­ing up blending mandates each year, and consumers continue to demand lower prices at the pump, Brazilian ethanol imports look more and more attractive as a means of relieving supply tightness in the United States.

But is a focus on Brazilian ethanol, a volatile commodity with a rocky history of supplying the United States, the right path forward? As government officials pursue a carbon reduction strategy that may give preferential treatment to cane-based eth­anol over corn-based ethanol, domestic ethanol groups are pushing their product and fighting against carbon policies.

All this could put the entire future of the renewable fuels market in question. If federal law requires renewable fuels and other state, regional and possibly federal LCFS programs require a re­duced role of certain renewable fuels, then what does the future hold?

...

Cane diversion to ethanol - seems a likelihood
Dwindling ethanol exports out of Brazil in 2009 stemmed largely from the coun­try’s struggle to meet its own domestic ethanol demand. When India experi­enced a severe sugar production short­age in 2009, the resulting high sugar prices gave Brazilian mills an incentive to boost sugar production at the expense of ethanol output. UNICA said that the region’s sugar pro­duction from the start of the harvest sea­son in April 2009 was 6.53 percent greater than the amount produced in the same pe­riod in 2008. Meanwhile, accumulated ethanol production over the same period suffered a 7.69 percent reduction. According to UNICA, in the second half of December last year, the proportion of cane destined for sugar production has gone down. In the second half of Decem­ber last year, 71.09 percent of the cane pro­cessed went toward ethanol production, and only 28.91 percent to sugar produc­tion. In comparison: Since the beginning of the most recent sugarcane season through the end of December, 43.31 per­cent of the cane processed went toward sugar production, with only 56.69 percent toward ethanol production. UNICA President Marcos Jank said in January that, while high sugar prices hit ethanol production in 2009 and contributed to higher ethanol prices, other factors played a part. “The principal fac­tor that explains recent high ethanol prices has received little comment: the global financial crisis, which hit the sec­tor hard,” Jank wrote in an opinion piece for Brazil’s largest daily newspaper. “In the first half of 2009, the lack of liquidity in the credit market forced sev­eral firms to sell huge volumes of ethanol at greatly depressed prices, below the costs of production, to be able to meet capital needs. This caused consumption to explode — an almost 30 percent increase compared to the same period in 2008,” he said. Persistent rains in the second half of 2009, which compromised sugarcane harvesting and ethanol output, also exacerbated the tight supply-demand balance. On the demand side, flex-fuel vehicles represent nearly 40 percent of Brazil’s car fleet and around 90 percent of all new car sales. The vehicles’ popularity — and ethanol often priced lower than gasoline —resulted in Brazilian ethanol consump­tion rising by 78 percent over the last three years, compared to just a 3 percent increase in gasoline consumption. Observers question whether an in­creased reliance on Brazil — a country struggling to meet its own internal etha­nol demand — is the smart path forward.
Rebound Scenario
The country could still ramp up produc­tion, however. As mentioned, Brazilian mills already have started boosting their ethanol production at the expense of sugar production, despite attractive sug­ar prices. There’s also a good chance that rains won’t disrupt sugarcane harvests as heavily this year. Another factor to con­sider is the ongoing investment in new ethanol mills in Brazil. Despite the diffi­cult credit and financing environment, 23 new ethanol plants were built in 2009.
California demand for ethanol could be a boon for Brazil, especially after LCFS goes into effect. The California Energy Commission (CEC) projects the state’s ethanol demand moving from 1.2 billion gallons in 2010 to almost doubling to 2.1 billion gallons by 2020, even under a low demand scenario for gasoline. Under a high demand scenario, CEC has ethanol demand at 2.6 billion gallons by 2020. Domestic ethanol producers point to employment and national security fac­tors when touting biofuel made from U.S. crops. However, as federal and state regulators move to curb greenhouse gas emissions, while simultaneously crank­ing up blending mandates each year, and consumers continue to demand lower prices at the pump, Brazilian ethanol imports look more and more attractive as a means of relieving supply tightness in the United States.

But is a focus on Brazilian ethanol, a volatile commodity with a rocky history of supplying the United States, the right path forward? As government officials pursue a carbon reduction strategy that may give preferential treatment to cane-based eth­anol over corn-based ethanol, domestic ethanol groups are pushing their product and fighting against carbon policies.

All this could put the entire future of the renewable fuels market in question. If federal law requires renewable fuels and other state, regional and possibly federal LCFS programs require a re­duced role of certain renewable fuels, then what does the future hold?

...

Cane diversion to ethanol - seems a likelihood
Dwindling ethanol exports out of Brazil in 2009 stemmed largely from the coun­try’s struggle to meet its own domestic ethanol demand. When India experi­enced a severe sugar production short­age in 2009, the resulting high sugar prices gave Brazilian mills an incentive to boost sugar production at the expense of ethanol output. UNICA said that the region’s sugar pro­duction from the start of the harvest sea­son in April 2009 was 6.53 percent greater than the amount produced in the same pe­riod in 2008. Meanwhile, accumulated ethanol production over the same period suffered a 7.69 percent reduction. According to UNICA, in the second half of December last year, the proportion of cane destined for sugar production has gone down. In the second half of Decem­ber last year, 71.09 percent of the cane pro­cessed went toward ethanol production, and only 28.91 percent to sugar produc­tion. In comparison: Since the beginning of the most recent sugarcane season through the end of December, 43.31 per­cent of the cane processed went toward sugar production, with only 56.69 percent toward ethanol production. UNICA President Marcos Jank said in January that, while high sugar prices hit ethanol production in 2009 and contributed to higher ethanol prices, other factors played a part. “The principal fac­tor that explains recent high ethanol prices has received little comment: the global financial crisis, which hit the sec­tor hard,” Jank wrote in an opinion piece for Brazil’s largest daily newspaper. “In the first half of 2009, the lack of liquidity in the credit market forced sev­eral firms to sell huge volumes of ethanol at greatly depressed prices, below the costs of production, to be able to meet capital needs. This caused consumption to explode — an almost 30 percent increase compared to the same period in 2008,” he said. Persistent rains in the second half of 2009, which compromised sugarcane harvesting and ethanol output, also exacerbated the tight supply-demand balance. On the demand side, flex-fuel vehicles represent nearly 40 percent of Brazil’s car fleet and around 90 percent of all new car sales. The vehicles’ popularity — and ethanol often priced lower than gasoline —resulted in Brazilian ethanol consump­tion rising by 78 percent over the last three years, compared to just a 3 percent increase in gasoline consumption. Observers question whether an in­creased reliance on Brazil — a country struggling to meet its own internal etha­nol demand — is the smart path forward.
Rebound Scenario
The country could still ramp up produc­tion, however. As mentioned, Brazilian mills already have started boosting their ethanol production at the expense of sugar production, despite attractive sug­ar prices. There’s also a good chance that rains won’t disrupt sugarcane harvests as heavily this year. Another factor to con­sider is the ongoing investment in new ethanol mills in Brazil. Despite the diffi­cult credit and financing environment, 23 new ethanol plants were built in 2009.
California demand for ethanol could be a boon for Brazil, especially after LCFS goes into effect. The California Energy Commission (CEC) projects the state’s ethanol demand moving from 1.2 billion gallons in 2010 to almost doubling to 2.1 billion gallons by 2020, even under a low demand scenario for gasoline. Under a high demand scenario, CEC has ethanol demand at 2.6 billion gallons by 2020. Domestic ethanol producers point to employment and national security fac­tors when touting biofuel made from U.S. crops. However, as federal and state regulators move to curb greenhouse gas emissions, while simultaneously crank­ing up blending mandates each year, and consumers continue to demand lower prices at the pump, Brazilian ethanol imports look more and more attractive as a means of relieving supply tightness in the United States.

But is a focus on Brazilian ethanol, a volatile commodity with a rocky history of supplying the United States, the right path forward? As government officials pursue a carbon reduction strategy that may give preferential treatment to cane-based eth­anol over corn-based ethanol, domestic ethanol groups are pushing their product and fighting against carbon policies.

All this could put the entire future of the renewable fuels market in question. If federal law requires renewable fuels and other state, regional and possibly federal LCFS programs require a re­duced role of certain renewable fuels, then what does the future hold?

...

you are welcome, sugar futures is showing strength, i think the correction from the peak was a bit overdone, may not reach the previous peaks, but expect it to settle at decent levels....