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Amol77

Amol77 from Pune

About me:

I am Amol from India.

All my picks should be treated as long term bets. I hardly give any short term pick, even if I do so, will mention it clearly. It would be very wise on your part to do study of the recommendation and invest in it only if you believe in story. I only have fundamental analysis done. Entry levels and targets are not discussed by me. Rather I believe in strategy. One such strategy is to sell half or some portion of the stock when it grow significantly in short duration and get your investment out and keep the rest for long term benefit.

My advice to others:
- Patience is always tested by the markets before it rewards.
- Long term investor can make decent profits.
- Consult a few people. Lots of idea and people can confuse you.
- Best thing in market, invest if you believe in the story/business.

I follow advice given by some respected boarders like KFactor,KJP, lkr, Ramge, Kukku and others.
I read messages posted by Zeenut, epiphany, ChartGuru
Here is my recommendation list:
Carbon Credits
Navin Flourine Updated on: 20th May 2008
Navin's Clean development project got approval from United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (unfccc) for 2.8 millions carbon credits for next 10 years. As a part of it it started receiving carbon credits from Fed 2008. Look at this page for the carbon credits issued to Navin. You can find the carbon credits issued by search the project number of Navin which is 0838. Navin will generate close to 7 lakhs carbon credits per quarter i.e. 28 lakhs per year. Each lot of carbon credits will be issued to Navin once it present their result and report to the agency.
Now here is a calculations:

28 lakhs per year Carbon credits
CMP of Carbon credits on NCDEX = 1054 (16th May 2008) Find latest price here
No of share of Navin = 10099889.

Earning calculations: 2800000 (Carbon credits per year) X 1054 (CMP of carbon credits) = 2951200000 (295 crores).
Less tax and other duties and payment to agencies (I assume that should not be more than 40%).
After reducing the tax amount remaining = 2951200000 X 0.6 = 1770720000 (177 crores).

EPS (yearly) = 1770720000 / 10099889 (No. of shares) = 175.32.

Give moderate PE of 31 (which happens to be Current PE) then the price should be = EPS X PE = 175.32 X 31 = 5434.92.

Will write more about the following stock as and when I get time
Gujarat Flourochemicals
SRF
Torrent Power

Real Estate
Shree Ram Urban Infra
Ruby mills
Swan Mills
SSI
Shree Precoated
Nuchem
Good business + Real Estate
KCP
Indian Hume Pipes Updated on: 20th May 2008
According to the director's report it has 30 plants closed across the country. Look at the recent announcement of the company.

Patel Engg.
Hindustan Construction
Rajesh Export
Walchandnagar
Godrej Industries