slow stock.please ignore it. sold...........

can you post your views on JSL..?...

How U r seeing closing Today Mkt. Considering the following matter: - 1. Expiry r about to near 2. 4900 & 5000 Put options r most active derivative today 3.Profit Booking 4.Mkt r not seeing to cross 5080 level 5.FII selling cash drivatives My opinion is Mkt can fall due to profit booking . Nifty can break 5000 level and sensex can break 17000 level. Its my opinion. Please also share ur opinions in this matter And Chief - Kamani Analysis was perfect for friday mkt. ...

Hello PRJ Sir, I also thought he was right, the discussion was very important for me but for a third person it may not be so. HenceI have started a new thread here. Thanks for your support. Regards, Brawny M ...

its okay PRJ sir..may be i can do some average at this price? may be i am askng another sugestion..recently i sold KPIT around 105/- would you recommend to renter in to that counter again around 95-97 levels if it is avaialbe? if not can u suggest me one or two strong midcap IT stocks?...

prjayachandranji, it`s wonderful to have such frank and opinionated senior boarders like yourself and poorfellowji to look up to.have been follwing many of your posts for a while. :) I guess the poorfellow method of accumulation, which i`m a great fan of, would work wonders in acquiring some of these high beta, but high growth posibility stocks like geodesic.. I agree with your analysis that 88 would be ideal price to get hold of some geod stocks and recover the capital amount while keeping free stocks for long term..as from 88/89, it looks good for an technical bounce back.. thanks for poorfellow for highlighting to us boarders the benifits of this superb technique . (In crises, there lies gr8 opportunities..) Cheers Jashn Sarvi ...

prjayachandran and poorfellow sir what is your view on these TWO IT companies in comparison to GEODESIC: 1. SUBEX 2. PRITHVI INFO Rgds .,, Jayant...

The company posted dismal results for September 2009 quarter. Sales were almost half and net profit just 13% of September 2008 results. Poor sentiment in steel prices and uptake of power were cited as the reasons.

The company expects better Q3 and Q4 results due to pallatization plant commencing operations and better Q4 results as captive iron ore mines also will be fully operational and the company will be fully dependent on them.

The company expects turnover to double in FY 2010-11 and net profit to go up more than proportionately.

The stock price is at a good support at Rs.135.

The stock is not a bad pick for investment with a long term view....

The stock price has had a WONDERFUL ride, rising 110% in six trading sessions flat!

The share is now getting into overbought territory and may correct in a day or two.

Remember that what goes up too fast, falls too fast as well....

Hi WealthyRam!

Sorry, I missed out replying to thi message.

KLG Systel is taking a brief pause and should be in action in the coming days.

Regards....

Dear brawnym!

Thanks a lot for starting a new thread. We can do discussions on miscellaneous issues here.

Personally, I did not mind the boarder objecting to us writing unrelated messages on Indowind messageboard. He was not wrong in doing so, what do u think?

Maybe we all have to accept what is correct and whatever is the truth, however bitter or in variance with our belief it turns out to be. Do u feel the same?

Regards....

Hi vishnu!

Most of my suggestions to invest are in stocks that I have either invested myself in or in which I plan to invest. However, I also answer queries about stocks I have neither invested in, nor plan to invest.

I too had invested in Geodesic. My investment was at Rs.124 and I have a strict stop loss of 20% in any share. So, even if I am damn sure of a scrip, if it hits my stop loss of 20%, I quit the scrip. The only exception is when the price at 20% loss is a major support and the share is not likely to fall any further.

So, I had quit Geodesic at Rs.100. I would not advice others to quit when I quit as I do not know their purchase prices for stop loss.

The major support for Geodesic is at Rs.88 and I feel it will not go down much below that.

Geodesic, despite its decent quarterly results for September 2009, has got hammered as a telecom scrip and most telecom scrips have had a bad time. However, the gradient of fall is reducing and the volumes are also falling indicating that support is close at Rs.88.

Even after hitting Rs.88, the share price may not make a V-shaped bounce. In fact it may move sideways for a while before deciding on the next upmove.

You need to take a relook at Geodesic as a telecom stock at Rs.88 levels. Even if you feel the sector cannot get back to its previous glory, a technical bounce of about 33% of the fall may occur in these stocks. You could use that bounce to quit the stock.

Sorry if my suggestion did not work out for you. My intentions were genuine.



...

Correction to my message:

The future EPS forecasts for FY 2009-10 and FY 2010-11 average Rs.20 for FY 2009-10 and Rs.27.5 for FY 2010-11 respectively. ...

It was heartening to note that retail investor portion of Cox & Kings IPO has not been oversubscribed. In retail individual investors category, the company got bids for 62.84 lakh shares (0.98 times), while it had reserved 64.03 lakh equities for them.

This should mean that ALL retail investors should get allotment of ALL the shares that they had applied for.

There are a number of methods for calculating the reasonable valuation for the company.

First, the TTM EPS. TTM net profit (including June 2009 quarter) is Rs.85 crores which gives a fully diluted EPS of Rs.13.51 on post-IPO equity of Rs.62.92 crores. At Rs.330, the PE is 24.42 and if PE of 40 is to be applied, the fair price of Rs.540 is arrived at.

Next the future EPS forecasts for FY 2010-111 and FY 2100-12. Various brokerages have made forecats that average Rs.20 for FY 2010-11 and Rs.27.5 for FY 2011-12.

I am tempted to apply PEs of its peer Thomas Cook to these EPS forecasts, but I will desist from doing so for two reasons:-

1. These financial years are far away and `there`s many a slip twixt the cup and the lip`. Meaning many things can go wrong between now and one or two years into the future.

2. Stock prices are not always logical and need not always follow PE principles.

I would only sum up to say that - I AM NOT SELLING THIS IPO ALLOTMENT IN A HURRY.

...

In a scenario where all world markets fall and rise in sympathy with each other, Indian markets could not become an exception last week despite the reasonably good September quarter results.

Nifty support level of 4750 was broken although there was an intraday rally from that level. Th next strong support is 4475-4500 levels at or before which the indices can bounce back.

As the fall has been nearly non-stop from 5142 levels and the indices have got oversold, any pullback, however short, is likely to be sharp.

The fact that key support for continuation of upmove has been broken indicates that markets are only likely to move sideways in the medium term. A major upmove may have to wait. That does not preclude individual stock specific movements from occuring....

hi val-picker!

I thank you for your support and I am grateful to you for the good words you wrote about me.

You can be assured that I do a lot of work before I write my mesages and I am extremely careful that people who read them get well researched authentic information.

As you would agree, I got my support of Rs.234 wrong despite my best intentions. Rs.199 is the next strong support.

More importantly, a large number of investors do not appreciate the risks associated with stock market investing. Many want to see their investments in stocks only go up day by day. That`s the incorrect attitude to adopt as it is impossible for stocks to only keep going up.

In fact, the markets have been moving up continuously for weeks together and such corrections are healthy. Personally, I do not mind the Sensex/Nifty correct all the way down to 16000/4750 where major support exists, but there is a possibility that recovery could occur before that.
...

Karuturi Global owns large tracts of land in Ethiopia and Kenya which are being used for growing crops, besides pursuing their previous core business of roses.

I like the company and its ideas a lot - for if we all look into the future, after oil crisis the next probable world wide crisis that could occur is food crisis.

In fact, food crisis almost hit non-crop producing, net grain importing countries like those in the Gulf when prices of essential commodities like wheat, rice, edible oil, etc. rose, percentage wise, more than what price of crude oil rose by end-2007.

Companies in Gulf and even those in Americas and Europe have been sensing this already and have been taking up large tracts of land in South America and Africa for contract farming to insure themselves against high food prices in future.

Karuturi may be one of the few Indian company to realise this early (of late, more companies are getting involved,like KS Oil`s edible oil plantations in Malaysia) and act in anticipation of this opportunity in food sector by procuring large tracts for cultivation of food crops in Ethiopia.

It has embarked on a Rs.4600 crore agricultural project in Ethiopia, covering a massive 340,000 hectares which is on long-term 50-year lease, where rice, sugar cane, palm oil and vegetables are being grown. The company has brought farm equipment and lined up agricultural experts from the U.S. and Latin America to guide in large-scale farming.

The produce from the Ethiopian farms would be exported to Europe, West Asia and Eastern and Southern Africa.

The revenues from most of these crops are expected to flow from calender year 2010 or 2011.

As we all know, agricultural crops are prone to failures due to natural elements like shortage of rainfall, droughts, floods, etc. Even political stability and peace in the nation where such large investments are made is an important criterion.

With its present management, I am confident that the company will achieve its targets by 2010-11.

If you are a patient long term investor, I would recommend this scrip to you.

However, do not ignore the fineprint that agricultural farming has inherent risks, that too in a foreign nation.......

hi mitz!

I agree with the grit part, but lady luck is also important.

I can give you the contact number of a guy who bought 400 shares of Satyam Computers (Face Value 10) at Rs.22 in 1992 or so. I too bought 300 Satyam for myself and advised the same to my Uncle as well.

I sold Satyam after three months at Rs.66 (although I knew it had a long way ahead) as I had lots of stocks ideas and limited money. My friend and my Uncle forgot about their Satyam stocks.

In 1999, my friend called me for a treat with family at a Golf Course in Delhi and told me that he will reveal the reason only on the dinner table. At dinner, he told me that courtesy me, he had sold 400 Satyam at Rs.2000 per share (total sale value Rs.8 lakhs, that too 10 years back in 1999)and he was grateful to me for that.

My Uncle kept selling Satyam whenever he required money (as a retired man) at Rs.540, Rs.2200 and Rs.7000 (he was lucky to catch the peak).

Remember, the guy with the original idea (me) had sold it at JUST Rs.66.

This is one of the many examples that I have about my investing experiences to illustrate that lady luck too is important, grit and knowledge notwithstanding.

Regards.
...

Today`s rise in share price past its resistance at Rs.151 has been with six times the average volumes.

The present move has target of Rs.171 for the short term.

For a company that has reported June quarter EPS of Rs.14.14 and is likely to see a full year EPS of Rs.56 (not to forget the prospect of change of management to the hands of Shri. Kumaramangalam Birla), the journey may have just begun....