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The accounting fraud done by Satyam will become a subprime crises in India. and market now can go any where.
This cases has raised creditability over the functioning of company auditors. In fact The private auditors are hiring a very low educated junior auditors who are getting very low wages from the principle audit firm, These junior auditors are being entrusted the job of auditing to big companies. these junior auditors who were never capable to have their own cycle and if they are offered by the big corporate houses a facility 5 star hotels for stay and air-conditioned car for pick up then how they will dare to pin point faults of Big Corporates, the fact is that the cheif boss Auditor never audits himself personally the books of these corporate houses and he comes only for signing that balance sheet which was audited by the poor junior auditors, Whereas those junior auditors who have already sold their morels to corprate houses by taking obligation of facilities of 5 star hotels and A/C cars, mearly works as a rubber stamp for and on behalf of their principle auditors. NOT ONLY THIS THESE JUNIOR AUDITOR DON`T KNOW MAJOR BASICS OF AUDITING that how to catch the faults.
hence under such circumastance now more and more frauds will come in light. It is also possible that these corporate house might be preparing two diffrence balance sheets one for deceiving Public and SEBI and another for tax payment purpose. It is surprising that what Income Tax authorities were doing, have they been bothered to collect income tax and wealth tax on the basis of Balance Sheet which was published for public, I think NO, Income Tax authories are collecting tax on the basis of balance sheet submitted to them only and they also never bothered to compare profits shown in the balance sheet presented to them and profits published by the company for Public and SEBI,
NOW FRENDS WAIT AND WATCH THIS MATTER OF SATYAM IS GOING TO BECOME A SUBPRIME CRISES IN INDIA AND ALL TECHNICAL WILL FAIL, the FIIs and Domestic Insitutional Investors both were investing in Indian Stock Market based on the reliability of Audited Profits of the companies but when those Auditors already have lost their creditability then thes big investor if they rely then upon whom, this was the basis reasion the today FIIs and DIIs both were huge net sellers. ...
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It would not have been possible for SATYAM to carryon it fraudelent activities without the support of authorities. There is nexus amongst promoters, management, auditors, brokers, some section of media, bankers, fund managers,some members of regulators to connive to fool and loot innocent public. I am sure that SATYAM is not only solitary case in this game but atleast 50% OF EVEN f&o companies are involved in some form of serious fraud if properly investigated by impartial and honest persons. Beware as an investor give top point to quality and integrity of management.
You are dealing with greedy and white collar sharks who want to get rich quick with your money? be awry of all such companies who are suddenly showing ambitious profits and ambitous grwoth plans.
Control your greed and stick to quality if you don want to be butchered. ...
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Quote of the Day
"Since the market tends to go in the opposite direction of what the majority of people think, I would say 95% of all these people you hear on TV shows are giving you their personal opinion. And personal opinions are almost always worthless … facts and markets are far more reliable."
- William J. O’Neil
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Hi,
Will the market fall for a week or two when OBAMA comes to power.
I think the market might fall a bit,fearing what would be his policies and plans.
Please let me know i am correct or I am not....
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Dear Investors,
We feel helpless sometime due to media related announcement (from the technical side) for Nifty downtrend movement. I don’t know, why investors believe in closing Nifty averages of those days which are past/dead (used only for statistics purpose) and have no correlation with economy (index move 70% according to the same) of India. If today, technical analyst in media telling resistance level of 3080 then everybody is blindly selling, but what happen few weeks back when they were announcing for nifty i.e. going down towards 1800 but Nifty had shown upward movement and touched around 3100 and they were surprised.
We request the investors to avoid listening and implementing the strategy of the technical analyst and operators /brokers/Mauritius based investors which are interested for their self motto and least bother for general investors and Indian public which are dependent on Indian economy.
We can’t avoid decreasing inflation, rupee strengthening, CRR cut, Repo rate & Reverse Repo rate cut, decrease in lending prices and fixed deposit rates, liberalization in export duties, increase in import duties to save industries, announcement of special packages, subsidies in various sectors and special excise and tax cuts, non failure of banking sectors etc. for the benefit and restoration of the growth rate of India.
Fundamentalist are always successful but required patience, and the same is important because we are working along with global market in which safe guards are essential but negative sentiments also hurts sometime although Indian economy is not totally dependent upon them.
We hope special package which may announce tomorrow will give boost for a better future of India and continuously special other announcement may also be heard soon in coming few fortnights.
We expect Congress may gain 20% more seats as compared to previous Loksabha election and may come again to form Government.
We estimate, Capital goods, Coal, Steel, Infrastructure, oil, banking, Auto, export related industries and small manufacturers may be immediately benefited and slightly improvement in reality and FMCG and Commodity may be observed in during last quarter and in near future.
Remember again, we have already estimated future target of 6700 for Nifty during 3rd to 4th quarter of 2009-2010.
The Dow Jones Index may show improvement slightly during January start but during April-may period of 2009-2010, it may show positive trend and may move between 9500-10000 levels.
The global markets may also show the positive trend initially along with American Index and the Indian Index Nifty may move between 3900-4200 during the same period.
The Gold may decline towards 9000-10000 levels during last quarter to second quarter of 2009-2010.
The Indian Nifty Index may show movement towards 3200-3300 within current situation.
For Saraswati Consultancy Services
Vivek Verma
Ashok Kapoor
...
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the thing that regulator the SEBI has to analyse the trading data on todays movements, as many huge open massive illegal practices so openly by various people have taken. a question has to be taken up as to why the only in singly the india is open, the role of various authorities crops up, the many all global are shut as a global close day. It has to be a CLOSE Day and has to be see that its a dificiency on the part of authorities to have a close day and should be taken up to see it a close day....
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Think the markets also in a very enjoyable mood.. A good start for the year... hope this `ll carry forward..
all boarders.. wish u all the best.. have a G8 trading year..
once again happy new year...
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All the talk about Recession and now deflation can make anyone nervous. Wall Street pros are making prediction and in doing so creating more CHAOS. So the question is what should we expect in 09? How is it going to affect average JOE on the main street well the short answer to that is things DO LOOK PRETTY BAD but this is not the end of the world as we know it. Yes there will be changes for sure. Wall Street Pros don`t have answers but best GUESS and assumptions.
The turnaround will happen only when the average folks on the main street feel that things are going to get BETTER. Unfortunately, the market has not reached BOTTOM yet because the bad news keeps coming. So don`t be surprised by the volatility. We should have a good estimate of the economy after the Q1 number for 2009 are out. It should tell us how bad the economy is and should also give us a pointer for 09. It should also tell us if the worst is over or is there more to come. Pros will be tempted to make predictions which will probably create more volatility and make the main street more nervous about the FUTURE but this should not worry the folks on the main street. Listen! Pros don`t have a crystal ball so their prediction is mostly a BEST GUESS. They have made wrong calls. It’s good to be stupid. Always look at the bigger picture and the stories behind the numbers because numbers do not paint the entire picture, so dig deep.
We don`t know if the folks on the main street will keep away from Wall Street in 09 especially after Bernie Madoff debacle. Wall Street of 09 will definitely be different as the fear of God has been put in most heavy weight players who once thought they were invincible.
So what’s the message for an average JOE on the main street? Well first and foremost Investing should be based on KEEP IT SIMPLE AND BASIC approach. Invest in what you understand and what make sense to you and not to an exec in Wall Street. Complicated products are not the answer. In all honesty no one understands them fully. This does not mean the death of INNOVATION. In fact innovation is good for the market and also for the folks on the Main Street but Innovation should bring simplicity by making things simple to understand and it does not have to be complicated. The money managers will have to be accountable and disclose their investment strategy fully. Regulators should develop a better understanding of products they are regulating.
2009 will be the year when we will start going BACK TO Basics. The markets will come back at some point and there will be parties again on the street but the question is will this happen again? I am sure it will. After all we are human beings!
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Dear Kalidasji,
What is your view on Satyam Computer considering latest devlopment / NEWS ? I am holding this counter since last ten years.I should SELL this counter or hold it.If your advice is of SELL then give some alternative stock in which i have to SWAP from this counter.
- Ramesh, Mumbai, India
Kalidas Says …. In service industry, the main asset is the reputation. If there is security breach, no major company will come anywhere near them. They have to lower the margin and allow the bad publicity to die down. US government, for example, will not even let Satyam come within 100 miles because of security concerns.
We do not know what happened. This firm will survive only in third world countries. Major western countries will view them as security threat. We do not know what has gone wrong - specifics are not known nor will be published soon.
When the business dwindles, the key employee leaves. Their CV or Resume will be negative if the prospective hirers knows anything about Satyam. People are the assets of the software industry - computers and others are available for song today.
Yes, it will look like good bargain, but their business will be taking for the worse from 6 months down the road. You will see lot of cancellations. January to March is the key period to get new contracts from new budgets, and such bad publicity at such sensitive time is unproductive.
Indian firms are not capable of facing crisis like this, and their public relation is very mediocre. They have to hire top Ad firm to resurrect their damage, and they should sue the World Bank for defamation as tactic that may bring in some confidence among new customers. World Bank is not very enviable institution - the garbage ultimately spilled out there.
Unless the company takes corrective Public Relation campaign now with full force, it will be futile to get into this stock which may go down for a long time.
And finally, in this market, there are several bargains. Why bet on crimpled horse?
...
In reply to:
Kalidas on economy
Posted by :
sd3
PART 3 :
Alan Greenspan was derided for having followed easy money policy for long period of time that sows the seeds of today’s problems. However, what Greenspan could not or would not do, was done by Bernanke in a matter of months at the speed of tornado. He is without doubt one of the worst ever FED Chairman United States had ever produced.
Paulson also ensured that the US tax payers lose every thing while granting enormous dollar package to bankrupt companies. He asked them to issue most inferior security – Preference Shares – which are subordinated to debt. If the companies go under, the Preference share holders get nothing. Had he given the loans in the form of Convertible Bonds or Debentures, they would have had priority over other capitals like Preference shares and Common Equity, and also achieved the purpose of convertible warrants as well.
He knows pretty well that such preference shares trade at considerable discount and assume the character of “Most Illiquid Security” in the market place. And yet, he endangered and almost liquidated the interest of all tax payers while granting largesse to the bankrupt companies running into hundreds of billions of dollars that belonged rightfully to American people
This leads us to the final step. What these two guys at the top be rewarded with?
Kalidas
Hong Kong (Ref: 0812-019 of December 16, 2008) 
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Estimated future trend and expected change in Economic and Political scenario.
Dear Investors,
Although, it is clear from the past experience of the speculator/operator move which resulted in peak fall in Nifty Index and rest of the countries Indexes. SEBI move in this regard and Brokers/operators protest for the opening of Nifty as per Singapore Nifty Index timings clearly proves their wrong intention to lose the benefit of short and buy as per Singapore Nifty movement which effects India.
We expect SEBI should take initiation and fix the time around 8 a.m. for opening of Indian Stock Exchanges to stop these speculator activities for the benefit of actual investors which are unnecessarily loosing their money and also for the safeguard of Indian economy.
We also observe/estimate the serious involvement of foreign pension and mutual funds which are still continuously investing in India but on the other side the Indian operators/speculators along with Mauritius based investors (which are not FII’s as per our thinking and they are responsible for Nifty fall in current scenario) are highlighting the speculative wrong information by the help of media and indicating for Nifty Index fall towards 2500 then 1800 unnecessarily for their own benefits and misleading the actual investors. Govt. should take action against these misleading highlights because they are acting smartly to grab benefits of decreasing interest rates and demanding more decrease in cuts from the Govt for their benefits although it is not required.
Indian economy is sound and steps took by the RBI, Minister of commerce and finance Ministry are good enough to build the base for sustain growth around 7% shows their success while the other countries are slowing down even few are in negative growth.
Decrease in prices of Crude related products as per the previous hike although one step has already taken and for another step is in continuation and may be observed soon; will be helping to decrease inflation and sustain the growth rate on positive side.
More CRR, Repo and Reverse Repo rate cuts may be observed twice during first quarter as per our estimate and decrease in fixed and lending rate may give boost to the availability of liquidity and for the benefits of consumers and small/big manufacturers.
We estimate for small amount of special package may be initially release in India and also for strengthening of American economy after the joining of Obama on the post of American President; special package value may be around between 0 – 1150 may be announced apart from financial sectors including some amount for financial also.
The awareness about limiting recession is increasing in American’s and the same may be reflected by huge purchases in retail segments may be observed during last and first fortnight of January to help retail industries to increase their new products purchase power and due to the same Asian countries including India may be benefited in retail product export.
The demand in export may increase due to less production in ore/coal and it may reflect in increase their prices in future. Crude may increase towards -75 and fall in $ towards 45-47.50 may be observed between last quarter of 2008-0009 and second quarter of 2009-2010. The speculated price of Gold may go down and it may fall between last quarters of 2008-2009 and second quarter of 2009-2010.
Capital goods, Coal, Steel, Infrastructure, oil, banking, Auto, export related industries and small manufacturers may be immediately benefited and slightly improvement in reality and FMCG and Commodity may be observed in during last quarter and in near future.
Remember again, we have already estimated future target of 6700 for Nifty.
The Dow Jones Index may show improvement slightly during January start but during April-may period of 2009-2010, it may show positive trend and may move between 9500-10000 levels.
The global markets may also show the positive trend initially along with American Index and the Indian Index Nifty may move between 3900-4200 during the same period.
For Saraswati Consultancy Services
Vivek Verma
Ashok Kapoor
...
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Dear Srini,
I see 2009 as a year of consolidation.Global Economy as well as Indian Economy will suffer. I see a decline in Corporate Profits going into 2009. General Elections around April/May 2009 which may deliver a hung Parliament again,add to the uncertainty. No one knows what the new Coalition will look like and whether it will have a populist or reform agenda.
Counter point is that this 2008 Bear Market has already seen a rapid and steep drop in Prices. Most of the Price damage seems to be over. In 2009 I see the Sensex trading in a broad range between 8000 and 13000. Any breakout from this range will be temporary and get corrected speedily. Strategy should be to Buy around the lower levels of this range and book Profits near the higher end. Stick to Bluechip and large Cap stocks only unless you are Investing for the very long term.
Wishing You a very Happy and Profitable New Year!
Goldchest. ...
In reply to:
Confused !!! Please advise !!!
Posted by : jonnal
Dear GC,
Please give your take on the current state of our markets. People like me who have averaged their portfolios at Oct levels would like to preserve whatever little is left of their portfolios before the next downswing happens in order to buy then. I have great regard for your perspective and what would be your advice for many investors like me sir, whether to be safe by getting into cash or hold on in hopes of for better days?
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Srinii
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I have got 1000 shares at round of 425 rs I have bought again at 125 levels for 2000 shares Now i am posting this message upon sound fundamentals of the company today satayam is trading at level of 135 rs and before one year ago it was nearly tripled in price Now if you think as global IT comapny, both on same level og the prices within one year again wil touch 400 rs mark THIS IS MY PREDICTION THAT INDIAN SHARE MARKET WILL IN CHARGE OF WORLD`S ECONOMIES i AM WRITING TO UDAYAN MUKHARAJI THAT WRITE DOWN MY "GOLDEN WORDS" AND SHOW THEM TO CNBC TV18 WHAT INDIA HAS GOT ,,, MEN POWER, MARKETS, LABOUR POWER, VARIETIES OF INTELLETUAL POWER, AND NONE OTHER THAN FEELING OF BROTHERNESS WILL FETCH INDIA AS A SUPER POWER ALL AROUND AGAIN WRITE DOWN " UDAYN MUKHARAJI " MY WORDS " YOUR SHARE MARKET WILL BE LAEDING ALL OVER THE WORLD" SHOW THIS WORDS TO CNBC TV 18 IF YOU ANY QUESTIONS POST ON MY EMAIL ADD a2003patel@yahoo co in ...
Dear GC,
Please give your take on the current state of our markets. People like me who have averaged their portfolios at Oct levels would like to preserve whatever little is left of their portfolios before the next downswing happens in order to buy then. I have great regard for your perspective and what would be your advice for many investors like me sir, whether to be safe by getting into cash or hold on in hopes of for better days?
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Srinii...
In reply to:
Confused !!! Please advise !!!
Posted by :
goldchest
Stanley,
How are you Brother? Yes I know that the next 1 Yr is going to be very challenging for IT Companies. You may need to work harder for lesser Pay. Stress levels will naturally be high but keep your cool and avoid taking rash decisions. If you want to change jobs better to wait for an upturn. Like they say - a known Devil is better than an unknown Angel.
Another Coalition Govt in 2009 definitely seems likely,maybe a new combination of partners.
Keep in Touch!
Goldchest.
very interesting.. world`s GDP is 50 Trillion US $ ..
And a mess of 62 Trillion US $ which is just 4 times of US GDP!
There are two options for US...
Let Americans work for next 4 years for free...
Or
Let Every one on globe work for just one year for free......
In reply to:
Kalidas on economy
Posted by : hembhat
Just recently MD of a leading public insurance company while speaking at Institute of CA`s diamond jubilee conference said that the volume of subprime and other losses are to the tune of US $ 62 Trillions!
If this is the case why USA & FED are not coming out clean on the extent of overall losses. Why rating agencies in USA & Europe are silent about it. Why CA firms are not qualifying their reports?
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Estimated future trend and expected change in Economic and Political scenario.
Dear Investors,
W saw in past and will also observe lot of reforms in global and Indian economy in near future. The credit goes to US President (Mr. Bush) serious involvement in existing circumstances which resulted in slowing down or to the limitation of recession all over the world including America. He is hard and committed person to provide the solutions for the social and economic reforms. He was also not afraid in past during serious terror attacks and this is his political and futuristic observation personality in which he took those steps which were favorable for all countries in stopping of terrorism.
We hope before leaving the position of Presidents, the solution of Auto Industry problem will also be solved and special package will be given to other Industries also for revival purpose.
The Indian ex-finance minister Mr. P. Chidambaram has done good job and in existing situation in improvement of economy is the result of the same.
Although informed about the several steps which has been taken and may be observed within two months for giving pace to the Indian economy.
Further important to write for decreasing price in Crude related products are well known to all and we hope due to the same majority of the Indian Industries and consumers also will be benefited and their purchase power and for Industrialist their production and marketing capabilities will be increased which will be favorable.
Capital goods, Coal, Steel, Infrastructure, oil, banking, Auto, export related industries and small manufacturers may be immediately benefited and slightly improvement in reality and FMCG and Commodity may be observed in near future. The rupee will be strong as earlier informed. The Gold may decline towards 9000-10000 levels during last quarter to second quarter of 2009-2010.
Remember again, we have already estimated future target of 6700 for Nifty.
The Dow Jones Index may show improvement slightly during January start but during April-may period of 2009-2010, it may show positive trend and may move between 9500-10000 levels.
The global markets may also show the positive trend initially along with American Index and the Indian Index Nifty may move between 3900-4200 during the same period.
For Saraswati Consultancy Services
Vivek Verma
Ashok Kapoor
Estimated future trend and expected change in Economic and Political scenario.
15/12/2008 Old Report
Dear Investors,
Nifty Cash Index opening will be 2975 if breaks then 3010 but may go towards flat and recover again and close towards 2970.
The latest international scenario is different and within this week cut in interest rates in home loans and fixed deposits may be observed shortly. The Industrial and personal loan and other relief in form of packages may be declared. The same type of reform in special packages may be observed during next few months as per demand and further cut in Repo and CRR may observed twice in first quarter to support the economy and for more availability of liquidity.
The wheat production output will be available and continue in the market from the next fortnight. The same may help for reducing inflation and demand of sugar may be increasing from January onwards and the Sugar industry shares price will be helping share index.
Export related industries may show improvement due to favorable special policies. Iron ore exporters and steel Industry may be benefited also. The increase in Coal demand will be observed continuously from the first quarter and onwards.
Election is close and the date may be declared within last week of February or in March and may held within April to June period as per the Government decision, therefore lot of economic reforms may be seen and special beneficiary budget will be produced before the election for the beneficiary of investors and share market.
Crude price may again further go up towards -75 within last quarter of 2008-2009 and between second quarter of 2009-2010 and due to the same reason decrease in inflation rate may be reduced.
Gold may show decline during last quarter and move in range of 9000-10000 during first and second quarter of 2009-2010. The dollar may decline during last quarter and it may move between $ 45-47.50.
The good rally towards 3600-3900 may be observed but with high volatility during last quarter.
Remember, the estimated Nifty Index target of 6700 during 3rd to last quarter of 2009-2010.
For Saraswati Consultancy Services
Vivek Verma
Ashok Kapoor
...
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