Reply Post to: tally,
Thread: Inflation and Stock Markets

Although your post is directed to Mr. Swamy, I am replying only because you made some personal observations about me (and you are not alone, there are many), that needs proper evaluation and answer.

What do you call “brash and arrogant pronouncements to investors who dare to differ" and "Notwithstanding, arrogance of this old man ...�?

If I give some confident call with full facts, figures and rationale, it is not a display of "arrogance". Similarly, when I give certain call based on some fundamentals, which I clearly explain in farthest details, it is not called a display of "brash and arrogant pronouncement"

There is very thin line differentiating between the term "confidence" and "arrogance", just as one see similar thin line between the term "Investor" and Speculator", and also, the term "Nationalist" or "Terrorist"

"Confidence" is a virtue that very few possess in real sense. When a person is deeply convinced of his idea, by evaluating host of factors before arriving at conclusion, is called a display of "Confidence". However, when one does not follow the above process, and repeats the statement time and again loudly without any basis or producing any rationale or evidence or logic, is called "arrogance". Show me a single instance (without quoting me out of context"), and I will concede to your views.

Any one, who puts in money in the stock market only because his friend or neighbor did the same thing, and they are reportedly making huge money as they claimed, is called an "investor" in ordinary parlance. However, the real "Investor" is one who reads, listens and watches everything, and then takes calculated decision to put money in to the stock market. A "Speculator" is one who allows others to cloud his thinking ability and then puts money into a stock, believing that 1000 persons can not be wrong. Further, if any one, who takes risk in his own industry, is called an investor; others are all speculators. For Gold dealer, buying and selling of gold is his normal routine, so he is investing into his own trade. However, if someone buys futures or options based on hearsay about gold or silver, he is a speculator.

Similarly, a person who fights for the freedom of his own nation, he is a "nationalist" and any action directed to remove the enemy is justifiable. Shaheed Bhagat Singh" was not a "terrorist" as British branded him. Even Winston Churchill branded "Gandhi" as a terrorist, when he picked up only a pen, never a gun.

However, same "nationalist" becomes a "terrorist" in the eyes of foreign predator or occupant. Today, what you see some Iraqis blowing themselves off for the liberation of their country from United States, is a display of "nationalism" not "terrorism"? They are fighting for their own country - who the Americans are fighting for? Their own country? Certainly not.

So I do not accept your statement branding me as "arrogant and brash". Those who know me in Hong Kong, and they are some of the largest investors, will tell you whether I am arrogant or modest. Modesty is a virtue, but not to the extent that it becomes a sign of a person's weakness.

Kalidas, Hong Kong
Ref: 09R-007 of 7/29/2008 4:16 PM...

for Kalpesh S, Versova

Stop reading my post, and you will be out of depression. May be you will get cardiac arrest later when my predictions come true. But then, you will not be able to communicate with me.

Even when the markets recover, these twin brothers will not. When other stocks are down 70% to 80%, and this stock is down say 32% and 45% respedctivly, people will sell these troubled babies and buy others who have just come out of ICU on recovery play belief. If you are long enough in stock market game, then you would have known that when the market recovers, the good investors will sell the stocks with least correction and buy the one that have come down most and having as result better potential.

And better take reorientation course in some elementary English school to learn the simple meaning of each of my sentence. If you can not understand what I have written, and want to just speculate, as you do in RIL and LT, then....

Kalidas, Hong Kong


Kalidas, Hong Kong
27-07-2008...

for sriman35,

I do not want to write an essay on any subject. I want to create an opportunity for our fellow boarders to make more money. There are always opportunity in the stock market - bull or bear. We have to allow to run their course too.

Of course, some practical knowledge will be imparted.

Kalidas, Hong Kong
27-07-2008...

for Swamy (psgs)

You are right and wrong.

Right because I am writing a book for the first time on current crisis with solution as well. i am in last couple of chapters that keeps me busy.

Wrong, no I will not leave the board, although I will start my blog soon. However, my contribution to blog will be limited due to two personal reasons:
1. I am in final stages of my book on current crisis. It deals with all issues comprehensively. further, I have not only identified the problems but also outlined the variety of solution for each problem with pros and cons of each of them. It may have instant effects. If these ideas are accepted by concerned authorities, there could be "sea change" in the markets around the world. I will first give the proposal to the concerned authorities and then decide to publish the book after knowing their initial reactions. It will cost them of course - not free service. This is my life's best achievment.

2. I have to rush to USA for the wedding of my son in 3rd week of August, so that I have to reach there at least 7 days before that event. that might keep me occupied.

Thanks for your compliments. Let me prove my worth when the book is published. Regards,

Kalidas, Hong Kong
27-07-2008...

for Jai shri Ram (Guest)

Opinion is an opinion. Every one has waste basket near them. If he does not like it, he may throw it into the waste basket.

Yes, I do believe even now, that RIL is not worth over Rs 900 and LT over Rs 600 - they will go down to that level for sure. I will be happy to be proved wrong. I know that it hurts someone who holds those stocks - they want to hear only good about these stocks. If they disagree with my views, who is forcing them to change their minds?

Further, I am never writing in desperation. My all thoughts are translated into words after lot of deliberations with myself. Further, I really do not care whether I am respected, disrespected, loved or hated. What do you know about me or I know about you? We are just like a passer by on the street who do not know each other. Sometime they collide and say "sorry" or "thank you" if you have helped them out of unconscious mind.

This column is meant for sharing opinion. There are always two sides of any opinion, just as in the stock market, there are always "Seller who takes negative view of the stock, so he sells and another Buyer who is always optimistic, taking a contrary view that the stock will gain or go higher"

The persons like Kalpesh, Rohit or Buffet777 and lots of others on this board do not change my opinion. The fact that they are coming to read my thread proves that they see something in it. If they really saw trash value, they should not have come here. Why don't they start their own thread and prove their utility to the board by writing something constructive? They know very well that by writing here, they also get the attention, which they would not got by initiating their own threads.

I have always maintained that "Your opinion is your property" Take it or leave it. There are also many who strongly reacted to boarders who are hostile towards me, to whom I had advised that let any one express any opinion on my own opinion without any restraint.

When I express opinion in strong words, it is my deliberate attempt to initiate strong debate to bring out the best out of other boarders as well. This is not voice of desperation as you mention it.

Further, what do I gain by writing here? I can as well watch the proceedings silently from sideline. But the knowledge is a commodity that increases when one shares with others; otherwise it just dies down within oneself.

Kalidas, Hong Kong
26-07-2008...

Reply to Deepak Jayawant Posted By Guest

This is definitely my last post in this thread. To answer your points, note the following:

He is opening up banking and insurance sector at wrong time. India is the only country in the world that has largest pool of savings. Almost all banks and insurance companies in the world are either bankrupt or having huge and unmanageable losses. The debt and capital market is dead, so they are trying to tap only last pool of savings - Insurance. if they are allowed here at this time, they will pass on all lousy and worthless papers like CDO/CDS by offering better than average return. The retail investors, who form the largest pool of savings in India, might get tempted by larger than size claim and lose precious savings of their life.

This is certainly not the right time to open up the sector in the midst of severe banking and insurance crisis. Almost all insurance companies are loaded with the worthless papers of junk bonds, CDO, CDS - look at AIG - world's largest Insurer.

There could be another angle too - the sector being opened is all new private banks of which ICICI bank is one of them. it is possible that Chidambaram is now aware of acute problem at ICICI, so instead of state helping them or nationalizing them later, he may want to pass on the 5 months old pregnant lady with lots of complications to a new husband.

This is why he is opening up the Private Banks and not PSU banks which is owned by GOI. Private troubles may be passed on to private equity firms or others in alien country. It may be a wily move.

Kalidas, Hong Kong
25/7/2008



Kalidas, Hong Kong
25/7/2008 ...

Reply to Kalpesh & Rohit & so called Buffet 777,

It looks like you guys are interested in finding some fault in me by quoting me out of context. First of all, you neverread my all posts, pick up some in the middle and then go on complimenting yourself that you were right and those who followed me were the heavy losers.

KUD was also right that I am not day in day out trader. Now, lt me put the facts straight on your face, and if you can read simple English and some numbers from 1 to 9, then look at the following facts:

I initially gave SELL call in late December, and suggested to sell at least 70% of portfolio by 16/1/2008; The index plunged by 3000 points in 2 days on 22/1 and 23/1.

I again gave a SELL call to sell even remaining 30% and remain 100% cash by 31-Mar-2008 and the stocks slumped even further:

Now look at the following numbers of both Companies - Reliance Industries Ltd. and Larsen Toubro Ltd:

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD
Date --------- Close --------Volume
31-Dec-07 ---- 2,887.50 ----1,281,300
15-Jan-08 ---- 3,156.00 ----3,798,600
22-Jan-08 ---- 2,360.70 ----8,766,200
31-Mar-08 ---- 2,252.70 ----3,096,500
16-Jul-08 ---- 1,957.25 ----3,876,600 Down 32.22% from first SELL call

LARSEN TOUBRO LTD.
31-Dec-07 ---- 4,165.00 --- 207,800
15-Jan-08 ---- 4,066.00 --- 689,900
22-Jan-08 ---- 3,590.00 ---1,545,600
31-Mar-08 ---- 3,004.00 --- 844,500
16-Jul-08 ---- 2,289.80 ---1,107,500 Down 45% from First SELL call.

So Mr. Kalpesh, Rohit and Buffet 777, look at the above facts. The people who SOLD at my instance, did not lose money - they are saving almost 32% to 45%. Please note that "down" % is counted from higher base. If the stock drops by 50%, it has to double or up by 100% before even breaking even.

Further, the volume on 15/7/08 for RIL was 3,798,600 shares- that is the Investors who sold. The value comes to Rs 1200 crores. Since the investors who sold them have saved by 45%, means that they saved 1200 x 32% = Rs 384 crores.

Similarly, look at L&T. 689,000 shares were sold @ Rs 4066 or worth Rs 280 crores. They saved 45% or Rs 126 crores.

Between them I saved about Rs 510 crores, and that too for 1 day trading. Count the trading days from 31/12/07 to 16/1/2008 - I must have saved about Rs 7000 crores. Do you have vision to achieve what I achieved? Those who followed you must be vetting their pants. One day's rally due to political factor is not going to sustain.

This is my performance. So do not try to follow cheap methods to derogate me in the eyes of other boarders.

If you want to come up, try to be better than other standard. Do not try to lower the standard itself just to make you look bigger.

I really did not want to reply, once I decided to terminate the thread. But my lack of reply would have meant your strength. So I replied. I do not normally entertain the cheap posts like yours. I have better things to do.

Kalidas, Hong Kong
25/07/2008...

Hello Anil sir, Plz come back as we really need your guidance in this time.Please start posting again.With interest and enthusiasm every i visit your message board for new topic but i will go away with sadness as there no new topic from you. Sir, Can you please share with us u r new book name and cost so that i too can purchase and how about developing one new b l o g on your name. Thanks Wipro ...

Sir, Following ur call i could save a large chunk of my investment. Made an exit on January 1stWk. Will remain thankfull to u for rest of my life. Regards Partha...

Dear sir, We are missing your wisdom, when some fundamental changes are happening in the market. I hope you are fine with your health .Hope every thing is just great with your family. Are you in US now? shiva ...

dear sir kalidas where are you, we are missing your post neeraj...

Kalidas says:One day\\`s rally due to political factosr is not going to sustain. Kalidas, Hong Kong 25/07/2008 Kalidas is this a one day rally. The markets have been continuously rallying since you called doom since the last week of april.Its not a rally due to political factors but a sustained bull run. Infact if the markets rally to 5000 nifty it would be more than 4000 sensex points up from the moment you have been calling a sell.This reflects your hypocrasy .I sold off LT , RIL both on your strong sell recommendations in july but was shocked to see the amount of increase it has given since then.If nifty rally materialises to 5000 then Lt would be at 3200 and reliance at 2600 both almost 40-50 percent up since your strong as mr kalpesh said SELL all or piss in your pants call.Could you not have foreseen this rally? I know i am myself to blame but then expected better guidance from you.I strongly believe that if you are ready for praises then you should also be open for criticism.I still think you are a very knowledgeable person out to help small investors but please note that once you take the responsibility of guiding people you dont leave them midway .just angry because my losses could have been minimized had you not given that sell all now or piss in your pants call. Gangadhar Rajkot...

Kalidas sir plz come back as we really need your guidance.Please start posting again. Chintan...

Life can be an interesting experience or everything in it can be a source of irritation, the choice is ours. We are primed by instincts to treat anything new or unfamiliar to be irritating, but only when we consciously condition ourselves to take interest in the unfamiliar, do we experience breakthroughs. Edward de Bono, the guru of lateral thinking, has encouraged readers and students to engage in exploratory thinking. He has helped conflicting sides in Ireland to overcome their challenges by encouraging them to take more interest in each other’s perspectives, which lead to empathy, which then leads to an understanding and thus a resolution. Next time someone does something which usually would have irritated us, let us step back and say to ourselves, wow, interesting, he or she has done the same thing again. Why does he or she do this, if I were to be in his or her situation, would I do the same? We will be less judgmental. Recently, I was traveling from Singapore to Delhi. During the flight while I was checking the in-flight movie menu, I deliberately chose to watch a movie titled Step Up 2: The Streets, the description said that the movie was about the passion of a teenager to pursue a dance form of her choice and she goes all out to do it. In the past, I would have probably skipped such as movie and would have stuck with the conventional drama, but this time, I said to myself, it will be interesting to see what the teenagers are up to. I started watching the movie, and I found the movie to be very interesting and energising. I was in awe of the dancing talent of the teenagers and I realised that teenagers today are as disciplined as many of my generation. The difference is that the teenagers have the heart to do more of what they like to do. Some of the dialogues that I liked in the movie were ‘Life is too short to be somebody else’ and ‘It is not what you have got, but what you do with what you have got, that makes all the difference’. The movie finished, and I wanted more of it, such was the impact. I am so glad that I saw that movie, as it has opened a whole new vista for me to explore, a new dance form, a new way to achieve physical and mental fitness, a whole new area which is very interesting. Let us take more and more interest in the great variety that life has to offer and overcome the tendency to become cynical that comes with viewing the world around us as irritating. When we take a lot of interest in what goes around us, I can assure you, we will also become more interesting to other people. Thus we will live more vibrant lives. ...