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Reliance Industries
sell
Posted by :
bhusbhacTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear kadiyali - I am beginning to like your forecasts it makes for a profitable trade like it happened for me intraday today where I sold 100 shares at 1180 and bought back 100 shares at 1098! I suppose the smaller V signifies a smaller quantum of FIIs wishing to exit. I dont mint these Vs, Ls, Us and Js in INTRADAY trade. However I will wait for another drop tomorrow buy some more and exit at higher levels! I have indeed made some more small moneys on certain occassions by watching MACD and Stochastics on the -ve side of trading.
However at all cost I will maintain my holding. The profits from this volatility will go to expand my portfolio from January 2009. 15th January is my birthday! The worst events this world sees is on this day and things improve by 26th Janaury under any event. So I suppose I will get a trading opportunity in this period.
I wish we could get upto date FII holding in each stock especially the sensitive ones on a DAILY basis. This would give us an idea of what is really going on.
Another way to look at it on the FLIP side is that in January, 2008 the FII holding was valued at US$ 280 bn versus our foreign exchange reserves of US$ 320 bn. After about US$ 20 bn has gone out of our stock markets the FII holding in value terms is down to US$ 70 bn and our foreign exchange reserves which is decreasing WoW is down to US$ 250 bn. Si if we take these two factors into account from a nett surplus of US$ 40 bn we now have a net surplus of US$ 180 bn. Our targetted exports were US$ 200 bn which is down 15% so we have already covered a loss on this account.
If only our Finance Ministry finds a way to settle off those FIIs who wish to exit by paying them 10% to 15% above market price it would still be worth it! I think of the US$ 70 bn barely 10% to a mximum of 20% which is just US$ 14 bn representing lvereaged funds might wish to get out and restore stability to our markets!
Tomorrow morning put a buy order at 1040 in OPEN and see how it goes since it could POSSIBLY be a gap down! So then we traded the smaller V?...
In reply to:
sell
Posted by : kadiyali
Wednesday trading can see a `V` curve for RIL, with second(right) arm of the `V` smaller than the first arm. 
Will Reliance be in troubles????!!!!
Posted by : tallyTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear bhusbhac, I have terribly gone wrong in assessing the price drop on RIL. I remain still convinced about its strong fundamentals and its intrinsic value. There are many imponderables in economic situation but I REMAIN CONFIDENT OF OUR OWN POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH & DEMAND. Energy needs for our industry and agriculture remain. You have rightly assessed that our agro-economy is likely to remain robust and may even give boost to our exports in these troubled times. I have arranged few hundred thousand rupees and would wish to invest major part of it in RIL on long term basis. MY WISH LIST IS ALSO TO CATCH IT AS LOW AS IS POSSIBLE AND ALSO AT THE BEST TIME. A tall order but I will appreciate comments from you and other boarders....
In reply to:
Will Reliance be in troubles????!!!!
Posted by : bhusbhac
Dear neeguya - To be fair let us say that the current level after Fridays rally is a LOW point for the DOW. US$ 40 - US$ 45 you say is teh cost of deep sea water production. I would say that the cost for RIL might be not more than US$ 40 x Rs 40 = Rs 1600 per barrel. So the price of US$ 48 = Rs 1920 today is profitable to RIL since RIL will also activate all their petrol outlets in the country. Also once crude is tapped the price of gas is a surplus to profits. I dont know how this really works out but there are other equations that will exist in a consumer like India.
To be also fair let us say that we can expect DOW to be nearer the 10000 mark the moment their markets sho stability.
I dont know about touching new lows and how many years it will take to touch new highs in India however it is fair to say that we are at a very low point in our markets and we can reasonably expect NIFTY at around 4000 in the next 2 - 4 quarter!
So crude will sell at Rs 1920 per barrel without much problems to Government of India and be profitable both to RIL as well as the nation! It is important to note that even when crude was at US$ 125 Mukeshbhai had no more than US$ 48 in his mind for RIL!
Will Reliance be in troubles????!!!!
Posted by : bhusbhacTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear marketman - If Reliance is not facing financial crunch then they are not businessmen. No industry nor any business can SIT on cash. If they are facing financial crunch in these torrid times than I know that all is being done to protect my interest.
Also if crude is at US 25 for any length of time then ALL petrol pumps of RIL will be at massive profits alongwith other petroleum companies like ONGC, HCL.
In such an event if it ever happens RIL will slow down their production of oil and gas and IMPORT until such time crude picks up again.
If crude goes down to US$ 25 then the Exchange Rate will shoot up to Rs 100 which itself seems unlikely. It will also signal the END of USA. For us every commodity price will fall, general prices of ALL goods in India for domestic will fall, real estate will fall and our cost of IT services will also fall. We will RISE again irrespective of what our Government does or does not do!
And one day from THAT fall we will have a V shape recovery. Today the steep and rapid fall of RIL will one of these days see a V shape recovery upto Rs 1400!
I am willing to bet on crude in Indian Rupees!
Rest is all upto GOD and Lady Luck. ...
In reply to:
Will Reliance be in troubles????!!!!
Posted by : marketman
It is heard that reliance too facing cash crunch at the moment.... there are talks that reliance may go for job cuts in coming days....
RIL
Posted by :
rajesh chhabriaTracked by: 0 Boarder
thank you sir
Regards...
In reply to:
RIL
Posted by : vkk43
The book value should be as on 31st March, 2008.
Real estates under assets are taken in accounts at book value and not on their market value.
Will Reliance be in troubles????!!!!
Posted by : marketmanTracked by: 0 Boarder
It is heard that reliance too facing cash crunch at the moment.... there are talks that reliance may go for job cuts in coming days.......
In reply to:
Will Reliance be in troubles????!!!!
Posted by : marketman
There is a talk in the market that the crude can come down to below 25 dollar levels in coming days.... will reliance survice with the crude at below 25 dollars....
sell
Posted by : kadiyaliTracked by: 0 Boarder
Wednesday trading can see a `V` curve for RIL, with second(right) arm of the `V` smaller than the first arm....
In reply to:
sell
Posted by : marketbear
Traders are adviced to sell Reliance at current level of around 1160. Even short position can be initiated at current levels with target of 1050 on the lower side. Stock can fall like a nine pin if their is further selling in the market. Expect Reliance to go below 700 level next month and even 600 level is possible which is extreme bottom for the stock.
INTRADAY HOT PICKS
Posted by : vkk43Tracked by: 2 Boarders
What an excellent reply. What is the need for him to post this msg, if he is an expert in his prediction....
In reply to:
INTRADAY HOT PICKS
Posted by :
hansal77
Here we go...One more so called Xpert...If u r so confident, u wud not have posted this year but made Billions for urself...
Folks...Another ploy to rake in money..
INTRADAY HOT PICKS
Posted by : hansal77Tracked by: 2 Boarders
Here we go...One more so called Xpert...If u r so confident, u wud not have posted this year but made Billions for urself...
Folks...Another ploy to rake in money..
...
Most Boarders Stubborn & in Denial.
Posted by : bhusbhacTracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear kadiyali - All this L, 2Ls, U and V turns talk is redundant since we are in a historical bear market. The more the jargon used as convincing as it may sound does not reflect the fundamentals. No chart worked on the way down so nothing will work on the way up either.
Despite severe Governmental licensing controls and high taxations for most part of the last six decades we have show our capability to the rest of the world as a strong emergent force over the past few years.
Some boarders say that RILs profit is linked to crude. Yet when crude goes up 9% RIL finds it difficult to climb 1%!. When US $ weakens 3% to 5% in the rest of the gloabal markets we are appreciating only 1% to 1.5%. So none of these fundas are working either.
What seems to be clearer to me is the simple fact that there are some FII highly leveraged positions in our markets which our EXPERTS are eyeing to get them to sell as cheaply as possible. So today more FIIs would be seen to be exitting since there are positive cues aound.
Failure of Citibank would have seen greater leveraged FIIs forced to exit our markets along with the rest of Asian markets. At this particular moment I am beginning to see some co-relations between the Chinese and Indian marekts for teh aforesaid reasons.
I visualise our markets today are nearly 100% in control of experts and professionals versus the leveraged FIIs and Indian Retail investors are either holding on to tehier postions or have exitted.
I have a gut feeling that our experts and professionals will allow a sharp rally which might assume the terminology of a bear market rally since there will be certain FIIs who would ensure a pullback and then a buyback.
So my own remedy for myself is that I am holding on to my position as it stands today and I will try trading this rally as my calculations and predictions of FII compulsions and movements become visible to my eyes.
...
In reply to:
Most Boarders Stubborn & in Denial.
Posted by : kadiyali
I agree with you 100%. A bear phase of such a magnitude cannot have a `U` turn. It will be two `L` one below the other, before any `J` can set it. Just calculate the timeframe!
sell
Posted by : marketbearTracked by: 0 Boarder
Traders are adviced to sell Reliance at current level of around 1160. Even short position can be initiated at current levels with target of 1050 on the lower side. Stock can fall like a nine pin if their is further selling in the market. Expect Reliance to go below 700 level next month and even 600 level is possible which is extreme bottom for the stock....
Most Boarders Stubborn & in Denial.
Posted by : googolTracked by: 0 Boarder
Those who believed,a year ago, that the best would continue forever,were fools by default.
But those who believe now that worst is over, are fools by design....
In reply to:
Most Boarders Stubborn & in Denial.
Posted by : curious cat
I find most of the boarders very stubborn & in denial as far as the world situation goes. They are literally pleading and begging with their own intellect to turn ostrich. Wake up. Such massive damage caused by greed is not going to turn around in just a few months. All the figures don`t mean anything at this moment of credit crisis, they are usually cooked up so that you are left holding the pee-ing baby.
The Politicians & Bureaucrats are having a field day selling wrong information. They always show you what you want to see. Remember elections are round the corner.
Stay away till things settle down. Don`t be blind folded and this has nothing to do with Patriotism.
Bailouts are not Maggi instant noodles.
Most Boarders Stubborn & in Denial.
Posted by : vkk43Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Under the present circumstances, there is no question of expecting any U turn recovery. No question. Market will take a lot of time to consolidate before any sustained recovery is expected....
In reply to:
Most Boarders Stubborn & in Denial.
Posted by : kadiyali
I agree with you 100%. A bear phase of such a magnitude cannot have a `U` turn. It will be two `L` one below the other, before any `J` can set it. Just calculate the timeframe!
Most Boarders Stubborn & in Denial.
Posted by : kadiyaliTracked by: 0 Boarder
I agree with you 100%. A bear phase of such a magnitude cannot have a `U` turn. It will be two `L` one below the other, before any `J` can set it. Just calculate the timeframe!...
In reply to:
Most Boarders Stubborn & in Denial.
Posted by : curious cat
I find most of the boarders very stubborn & in denial as far as the world situation goes. They are literally pleading and begging with their own intellect to turn ostrich. Wake up. Such massive damage caused by greed is not going to turn around in just a few months. All the figures don`t mean anything at this moment of credit crisis, they are usually cooked up so that you are left holding the pee-ing baby.
The Politicians & Bureaucrats are having a field day selling wrong information. They always show you what you want to see. Remember elections are round the corner.
Stay away till things settle down. Don`t be blind folded and this has nothing to do with Patriotism.
Bailouts are not Maggi instant noodles.
RIL
Posted by : chief_kamaniTracked by: 0 Boarder
gugdruks-You know its next to impossible to get a Top Class Investment Grade stock like Reliance so low!!
...
In reply to:
RIL
Posted by : gugdruks
I though that Book value is around 500 rupees
RIL
Posted by : chief_kamaniTracked by: 0 Boarder
Guest-The glorious past gives you an inkling for future performance!!Not only for this year but many more years ahead!!...
In reply to:
RIL
Posted by : Guest
Dont get carried away by these jargons, value of any stock should be arrived at with an eye for future performance. Recollect the standard caution for investors
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