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Market Outlook - Medium Term
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Nifty will hit or be in the range of 3100-3256. From purely technical aspect Market should rebounce to 3000 levels. Why? There are lots and lots of negative factors thank god they came early. They will all be factored within this week.
Why will it rise? US is in recession and it got factored.
2) Terrorist attack got factored in.
3) FII holdings came down drastically lower.
4) India financial sector has been badly hit and to make the reforms much faster we had terrorist attack. So we can expect reforms such as rate cut, etc. Manmohan singh came back to economic which is a very good sign.
5)US in recession which makes policy makers to make much more concurrent decisions which will add good to market sentiment.
6) Auto makers whether they make good plan or not they will get money because US cannot ignore its Deficit.
7) So most of which gets factored in this week.
Much more positive is there is no more going down for the market. Even in October, November market touched 3200 in worst times.
From purely technical and fundamental point of view market will touch 3200 or so. It will fall again but it will touch. My analysis came true and this will also be true. Wanna bet. ...
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Still not sold 4 fig stocks, dont wait, it may be toolate then.
SBI.HDFC, BHEL, RELiance, Sun, Bosch.mico, etc....
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The only logic is when you cna see 8000+ from close to 20000, you might as well see 3000 from here!!!...
In reply to:
Sensex below 3000
Posted by :
rkbhaiya
Do you have any logic for your views or it is just your imagination.Pretty ordinary. 
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Institutions have parked a large portion of funds in US Treasury. These funds have come out from Stocks and have gone into Bonds and Cash.
Funds are now shifting from Cash/Bonds to Gold, Stocks, Oil, Metals.
This will take the equity markets a little higher but not a runaway rally. In december FII redemptions would taper and there will be less of stock which would come in the form of FII selling.
Operators would be very active now in side counters as they do not have to fear any FII sell figures and they can manipulate stocks. Watch out for chambal Fert, RNRL, IFCI etc.
However this short term rally will come to an end at Dec end. The earnings will come and those figures will not be very good.
Long term investors should BUY 25% of portfolio now. Get in Commodities, IT, HUL, Cairn, PSU Banks. The start of the Bull market from Sep `09 onwards.
India is coupled with the developed markets to an extent of FII flows(Liquidity). and also in IT and export oriented sectors.
A VERY STRONG REBOUND COMING.......Bears will lose unless they cover now.
...
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Look at the story at the moneycontrol entitled
Foundation of next bull run laid down
Ved Prakash Chaturvedi, MD, Tata Mutual Fund, feels the seeds of the next bull run are being put in place. "All good things which ultimately lay the foundation of a long-term bull market are happening now Interest rates, inflation, and raw material costs are coming down, companies are talking about cost control, and all this will form a stable base of a turnaround when that happens
It is quite convincining to me as i have been writting next bull run to begin by 2010 it may be mother of all bull run which may take the market to 30000 or higher by 2012
Indian growth story and fundamentals are intact and all these measures will boost economy further up
express yr view
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markets are trying hard to stabilise and consolidate!
finding it difficult as any negative news triggers deep falls and all the gains are lost either the same day or next! its time to stay cool as evbdy knows prices are on lowest side and long term investors will surely gain but it is for sure bottoms still not firmly found corrections upto a 1000 odd points in sensex imminent may happen sooner then expected and rallies unable to take market beyond 10700-10800! all sectors luk beaten! ...
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If you analyse Traded value(Rs. Crores)on NSE everyday, you will find FII`s trade value constitute only 30% of total traded value on NSE. Rest 70% of traded value belongs to trades done by local investors. By this arithmatic, it is very much clear that mood of local investors dominate over FII`s direction in deciding Nifty level everyday. This also very much clear, If you see that on amny occasions Nifty has managed to close in green handsomely despite heavy selling by FIIs e.g. today. So it is the responsibility of local investors to keep Nifty and Sensex in healthy condition and don`t make general sentiments bearish just due to earn profits. Views are welcome from boarders....
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Following stocks should be sold
1. BHEL
2. SBI
3. Grasim
4. reliance
5. sun pharma
6. fin technologies
7. allied digital
8. NDtv
9. Zandu pharma
10. PNB (at jumps)
11. bh Airtel
12. Tata (VSNL)
13. ONGc
14. Infosys
15 Satyam
16. NTPc
17. SAIL
18. BEML
19. BOI, BOB
20. AXIs bank
21. Future grp
22. Educomp Soln
23. Naukri
24. Newly listed stocks that still at premium...
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wait for real slide next year ! dont buy any stock in Rupee term wait for paise !...
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I think the dec quarter would be a dismal for the corporates. It should be far lower than even the Sep qtr.
Strategy - Exit at every rise. Wait for lower levels. Buy only when dec results are announced and stocks again correct at that time.
EXIT at current rally. The fundamentals do not at all justify higher market level.
The impact of lower int rates, lower fuel costs etc will be seen only from sep qtr of next year.
The only saving grace was crude and only lower crude will help markets from crashing.
BUT INDIAN GOVT IS NOT REDUCING PETROL AND DIESEL PRICES. WHY? ITS HIGH TIME THAT FUEL PRICES ARE REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY. UDAYAN PLEASE RAISE THIS ISSUE ON CNBC.
Markets to fall severly in month of March 2009 with tax concerns and tight liquidity.
April/May `09 would be the only months where bottom picking should start to take advantage of rally from Sep `09 onwards. ...
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Implied volatility in the market suggest market could test 8510 this week.
Levels to watch for medium to long term:
8510-8850-9200, 2625-2690-2760
clossing over 9200-2760 over tow days confirms rally to resume started last month.
...
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Market Outlook
Sensex 8,500 11,000: Consolidation or distribution band?
Our expectation was of a further pull-back rise last week but the condition was that a breakout and close above Sensex 11000 must be witnessed to confirm the extended pull-back rise. But the Sensex did not exhibit a breakout and close above 11000. It opened the week at 10154.56, attained a high at 10570.58 and fell to a low of 9267.49 before it finally closed the week at 9385.42 and thereby showed a net fall of 578 points on a week-to-week basis.
A rise and close above Sensex 11000 was not seen and in fact we saw a retracement of the rise from 7697 to 10945. The retracement levels were placed at 9710-9327-8943. The low registered last week was 9267 and it closed at 9385. It has, therefore, tested the 50% retracement level of 9327 by attaining a low of 9267.
On a further fall below 9267, expect a fall towards the next retracement level of 8943. When the Sensex made a low of 7697 on daily chart on 27/10/2008, it had formed a Hammer candlestick pattern. Further, it moved up with the gap and went on to attain 10945. The gap which is unfilled after the Hammer formation is in the range of 8894-8739. The lowest closing on the daily chart is placed at 8509. A cluster of support in the range of 8943-8509.
If we assume that the low of 7697 is unlikely to get violated, then the current fall from the trading lower top of 10945 will move towards the retracement level, which it has been doing to form a higher bottom and can move up to test back 10945. Ultimately, a breakout and close above 11000 is the key if the pull-back rise is to get extended in time to come.
Sensex Wave Analysis
Normal Count
Wave I-2594 to 3758
Wave II-3758 to 2904
Wave III-2904 to 12671
Internals are as follows:
Wave 1- 2904 to 6249
Wave 2-6249 to 4227
Wave 3-4227 to 12671
Wave IV- 12671 to 8799
Wave V- 8799 to 21206
Wave W-21206 to 14677
Wave X-14677 to 17735
Wave Y- 17735 to 7697 (not yet complete)
Wave a- 17735 to 12514
Wave b-12514 to 15579
Wave c-15579 to 7697 (not yet complete)
Wave 1-15579 to 14261
Wave 2-14261 to 15107
Wave 3-15107 to 7697
Wave 4-7697 to 10945
Wave 5-10945 to 9267 (not yet complete)
Alternatively, Wave 4 from 7697 to 10945 is complete and Wave 5 has begun from 10945 to test the lows or it could end into a 5th Wave failure to terminate Wave c and Wave Y.
On the immediate front, the Sensex has formed an Engulfing bear candlestick pattern on daily charts after making a high of 10945. If the high of 10945 is crossed then we could get an extended pull-back rally.
The pull-back level of the fall from 21206 to 7697 is 23.6% at 10900 and 38.2% at 12888. To an outer extent, the pull-back could get extended towards 50% at 14435 and 61.8% at16049. If the breakout and close above 11000 is witnessed on weekly basis, new door for pull-back rally would get opened up.
If now depends how quickly we can cross and close above 10945 on a sustained basis with a follow-up rise. If 10945 is not crossed, then the reverse pressure could set in.
Alternative Wave Count for the fall from 21206
Wave 1-21206 to 14677
Wave 2- 14677 to 17735
Wave 3- 17735 to 7697 (not yet complete)
Internals of Wave 3
Wave -17735 to 12515
Wave 2- 12515 to 15579
Wave 3- 15579 to 7697 (not yet complete)
Micro Internals
Wave i- 15579 to 14002
Wave ii-14002 to 1510
Wave iii-15107 to 7697
Wave iv-7697 to 10945
Wave v-10945 to 9267
Weekly resistance will be at 9741-10214-10945 levels. Weekly support will be at 8911 and 7608 levels.
After reviewing both the counts it looks that the fall could be in the final leg and subsequently we could witness some relief rally.
The support cluster is at 8938-8509. We could find the Sensex testing the support cluster and then move up to test back the resistance of 10945.
If the Sensex fails to sustain at the support cluster and falls down, then the Sensex will not only test 7697 but can event go down towards 6250 where the next major cluster of support is visible. To an outer extent, the slide can be as sharp as 4227. All these things are unlikely to happen within a week and will consume time to get down those levels. Last month, however, we saw a sharp fall knocking off all the supports in a month. Let the market decide for itself when those levels will come as we believe market is supreme and price is king. We can only highlight the possibilities of that happening.
In order to evade or negate the lower possibilities in the near term or short term, the Sensex must rise and close above 11000. If it does not rise, then 7697, 6250 and 4227 are all on the cards.
For the time being, we are assuming that the final minor degree Wave v is in operation and is are likely to get terminated into a failure, which could mean that an upward movement is likely.
For the immediate near term, we could find the market trying to consolidate in the range of 11000-8500 before making any significant attempt to move above 11000. The same...
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Do you have any logic for your views or it is just your imagination.Pretty ordinary....
In reply to:
Sensex below 3000
Posted by :
suresh_esg
I know it is too early to say that sensex falling below 3000 but nothing is impossible in my view. When sensex could come down from 20000+ to close to 9000, why not?
If it really comes to that level, many things will happen. There will be a set of people who book their losses and another set of people who look at market with a more long term view. I guess it is the second set that stands to gain at the end.
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I know it is too early to say that sensex falling below 3000 but nothing is impossible in my view. When sensex could come down from 20000+ to close to 9000, why not?
If it really comes to that level, many things will happen. There will be a set of people who book their losses and another set of people who look at market with a more long term view. I guess it is the second set that stands to gain at the end....
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Markets never fail to surprise both on the higher and lower sides.Indian market historically touched its highs every 8 years since 1985.See the peaks - 1985, 1992, 2000 and now 2008...After every peak it exhausted for near 2-3 years. This time though the speed of fall has been severe and the bounce back to high levels may come earlier if not after 2-3 years. In the meantime the rallies are going to be short lived. So sell at every rise.One shall get the levels of 8000-9000 in the sensex every now and then in the short term at least.Happy investing....
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Udayan's Market Outlook
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Pullback rally to fizzle out if mkt breaches 2500-2600 | |
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| Udayan Mukherjee, Stocks Editor, TV18 | ||
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