Offline
| Post a Message | Explore Forums | Browse Stock Messages | Hot Discussions | Top rated Messages | Top Boarders | |
|
|
|
Market Outlook - Short Term
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
dear hln,
Pls dont compare the corrections in periods between Jan2004 to May 2004 and between May 2006 to June 2006 with the present crisis.
1)Markets excesses in terms of higher valuations were very limited in those preceeding rallies.
2)There was absolutely no liquidity crisis during those periods.The present liquidity crisis is second only to great depression in 1929.
3)There was no slow down fears in 2004 and 2006.
4)Indian economy`s growth engines IT and Realty were in full swing at that time and these two sectors are now on the verge of entering in to deep troubles with no foreseeable respite in the near future.
5)Next growth engine of Indian economy is going to be the spending on infrastructural facilities.But the mounting fiscal deficit is going to play spoiltsport and force the govt to defer spending on infrastructure.
Pls remember that GDP expansion cant take place without capacity addition in infrastructural facilities like power, surface transportation and water facilities for domestic and industrial usage.For strange reasons govt had neglected these things in the past 4 years and nothing can be done in this area over night.
6)And the rapid drying up of liquidity will be another problem for the core economy.
7)post dotcom bust (8 years back), Markets were in dull phase till 2003.The present crisis by any means is more severe than that.
Expecting any sustainable rally before 2010 can safely be ruled out.
But yes.. after that one will see the mother of all rallies which India Inc witnessed so far ,taking the sensex to unforeseen levels by 2016 with one major correction in the intermediate period.
That would be the life time opportunity for any active market participant to mint money.
regards
PS: The only relief in the immediate future is the expected commissioning of RIL`s KG basin project....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
hindlevernet
Dear pranvpichu,
Your observation that Bear market always runs for 2-3
years seems to have no basis. Look at the following facts
relating to bear markets in India:
April 1992 to April 1993: 12 months, correction 56%
January 2004 to May 2004: 5 months, correction 32%
May 2006 to June 2006: 1 Month, correction 31%
Hope you will re-think about your hope.
Good luck
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Usd gained as much as dow lost how can these two b heading in different direction at same time....... if us economy is so bad one would expect usd to dive with dow...... I don`t under stand this but.... In my portfolio strong usd has wiped off some loses...now if Dow recovers and usd holds its ground it will b win win situation......
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
Atheist
Sir,
Many are trying to paint a positive picture, hoping against hope that the markets may recover. The reason being they are heavily invested in the INDIAN equities....They are clutching on to straws.
But they refuse to see the WRITING ON THE WALL which is as clear as BISLERI water, THE WORLD IS HEADED FOR A RECESSION, A recession caused by EXCESS GREED, greed which had made the investors blind to the actual valuations of the businesses they were investing in, the greed of the investment bankers and other to make a killing by investing others people s money in exotic derivatives, a synonym for WMD, the greed of the Indian corporates like REL COMM to rake in money so as to up stage his KIN,
The reason for the muck that we are all in is PLAIN GREED.
.
The MUCK is not going to disappear just by hoping it will and trying to paint rosy pictures when all that is are DARK CLOUDS that are visible. We all have to suffer for the consequences resulting from EXCESS GREED that we displayed over the years.
.
This GREED results from our own deficiencies like LOW SELF ESTEEM and INFERIORITY COMPLEX, JEALOUSY.
When we see that our neighbour has a car with 100 horse power engine, we feel INFERIOR to him, we want to buy a car with atleast 101 HORSE power. When we see someone sipping a Budweiser, we feel jealous coz we can only afford to have a kingfisher.
These material wants resulting from complexes are the main fodder for the GREED.
Why cant we all learn to be satisfied with what we have!!???
WE ALWAYS WANT MORE THAN WHAT OUR NEIGBOUR HAS....WHY???
Once we learn to control our GREED and learn to BE HAPPY WIH WHAT WE HAVE, we will become immune to such bleak times.
ITS TIME TO INTROSPECT!!!
...SINGH...
Tracked by: 3 Boarders
Dear bubbu 64, I booked for a plot of land a year back, in AVC Township (kindly visit avchousing dot com and see the route map and location). So far, in two instalments, half of the payment has been made. The plot is yet to be registered in my name. I understand that some final approval from Greater Hyderabad Dev.Authority (some name like that) is yet to be received, which is stalling the final documentation. I would like to have your opinion on the above, especially whether the promoter is of repute, his commitment and also location of the project. Kindly leave personal message in my id....
In reply to:
Americans Common Sense Prevails...
Posted by : bubbu64
Dear Ramesh
I stay in Hyderabad. If u could let me know in which area of Hyd u have purchased this porperty, maybe I can help you. I have a good knowledge of the Hyderabad real estate mkt though I must say honestly I am neither a real broker or a dealer or a developer, But yes I had purchased two properties in Hyd three years back and had done extensive research on the whole city. My first property is purely a self occupied one while the second one is a investment/ extended family/kids option property. Hence I am constantly in touch with the mkt. Do let me know if u want some good advice on the query u have posed above.
PS:- If you want to post any personal details regarding the property which u would not like to reveal on the general msg board, then pls use the pvt msg option in ur ID.
Regards
bubbu64
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
This may be the fifth and final down wave for Nifty but for S&P it is only the third. And Elliot Wave practitioners are projecting that after a pullback sometimes next month, S&P would again fall for the final time to find its bottom.
Assuming that is true, I would say that Indian markets can not rally with US markets falling. So bottom is still a little distance away....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Hi pkk,
There is absolutely no doubt that it is the FIFTH and FINAL
wave. Bottom is very very near. Dow has hit the bottom today.
It may not fall any more below 7883.
Tracked by: 3 Boarders
Dear Ramesh
I stay in Hyderabad. If u could let me know in which area of Hyd u have purchased this porperty, maybe I can help you. I have a good knowledge of the Hyderabad real estate mkt though I must say honestly I am neither a real broker or a dealer or a developer, But yes I had purchased two properties in Hyd three years back and had done extensive research on the whole city. My first property is purely a self occupied one while the second one is a investment/ extended family/kids option property. Hence I am constantly in touch with the mkt. Do let me know if u want some good advice on the query u have posed above.
PS:- If you want to post any personal details regarding the property which u would not like to reveal on the general msg board, then pls use the pvt msg option in ur ID.
Regards
bubbu64...
In reply to:
Americans Common Sense Prevails...
Posted by :
raneshramesh
thanks very much for your wisdom,unfortunately i did not hold any cash at this time, howver i will try to work out as per your suggestions. Now, i seek another advise from you, recently i have made a aggrement to buy one flat in an appartment in Hyd and i paid 500k INR as advance, and i have to apply for a loan for another 3mil INR..after looking at the global credit situation, is it advisable to apply for loan and buy this plot or i should leave this agrement by loosing 500K to the builder, becoz, there are very less chances to get back my advance money...i am really confused, i am sure even if you staying out side India, your knowledge is wide spread, once again thanks for your time , regards, Ranesh
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
this is avery good article and good analysis...
In reply to:
India must stop relying on global flows: Uday Kotak
Posted by : MMB Messenger
One Uday Kotak, MD and CEO of Kotak Mahindra Bank, expects this global pain to remain for the next three-five years. He strongly feels India has to stop depending on global flows because those economies themselves are in a problem and said that India needs to start relying more on our domestic savings and domestic ability to build our economy.
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
One Uday Kotak, MD and CEO of Kotak Mahindra Bank, expects this global pain to remain for the next three-five years. He strongly feels India has to stop depending on global flows because those economies themselves are in a problem and said that India needs to start relying more on our domestic savings and domestic ability to build our economy....
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hi coolboy,
Your father is doing the right way of investing by entering his choice of stocks in a staggered manner. Never invest everything in one go. I am also waiting for some more dip in HDFC and HDFC Bank. Although Hdfc came down to 1641 on friday, my order was for 1600. I know it has a possibility of sinking down to 1400 too wherein I shall pickup more of it. HDFC Bank is still going strong by not breaking 975. Am waiting for it to break 975 as then it can sink badly too. ICICIBank seems to have been oversold, will think about it at 300 levels. And RIL, well, its like buy one get one free. Its a buy at any levels below 1600.
Regarding your options, I would suggest to get out of your 3400 put on monday on a small dip and hold unto your calls and on a good upmove, get out of your 4500 calls coz that is too out of the money. I feel your 3600 call can give you good profits. Hang on. You still have some more time in your hands.
take care
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : coolboy007
Hii lovemeall sir,
Yeah sir i understand you are busy with your work and puja i was all empty this week with school holidays and no work.
The stocks he took werent hammered much , he took 30 HDFC bank on 1011 that day and even today took additional 20 at 106 , his punj lyod he took at 207 bought 100 more today at 192 . Relcap fell heavily he didnt take it this time , waiting for more severe fall and he took adlabsfilm to avg out shares at a higher price of arnd 550.
Sir i never take delivery shares but dad is interested in ICICI bank ( too much rumour fall ) , Aban offshore ( after a long time gave green closing ) , Gujnrecoke ( His avg 1000 shares 85 now 31 he intends to take more ) and RIL.
Do give ur views sir and plz take your time.
I am to long with 3 ce of 3600 4500 and 1 3400 Pe bought it strategically took ce at opening bell and pe when sensex was just down 500 points. Let us see which way we go.
Thanks for your help.
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello BSR,
Yes technically, we should have a nice bounceback as shortcovering comes to the fore,but that depends when the bears have had their fill and decide that enough is enough because the ball is now in their court and they are making the rules of the game. Yes this rally will be used by stuck up bulls to offload their long positions and when they withdraw their support to further go long, our markets may again sink to 3000 levels. There is increased uncertainty around the globe and the way the dow performed on friday, it was nothing short of a formula one race. I mean traders around the world including India are totally on roller coaster rides. But trading right now is also favouring the brave who do venture out into the killing fields.
take care
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : BullSheetRules
Dear lovemeall26,
Those Gap Downs were good for me! :)
Since Nifty has not not shown similar behaviour as DOW has shown, I would have expected Nifty below 3000 by now resulting in those Dirt Cheap Prices for many stocks! :)
Anyway, technically, we should see some Upward UPMOVES both on DOW and Nifty! Let us see!:)
However, you said correctly that there is no need to hurry now! Ppl need to put some HOMEWORK and go for LT investments in staggered manner!
That last fall should happen within three months! I would put my WILD guess sometime around end of November or beginning of December! Let us see! That is just a BS guess based on past historic data as I expect Dow to do well around US election time!
Gud luk & happy investing! :)
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Hello vam_aru,
Yes I agree with you that this volatility has become a day traders nightmare as deep stop losses are also being hit so easily. We need to consolidate for some time down here before a healthy upmove can begin, but yes again, global cues are just unrelenting in their negativeness. Hopefully, we will not have a gap down on monday although the dow sank nearly 700 points at one time on friday. Crude falling below 80 alonthwith emergency measures being taken around the world might stabilize the markets for a day or two, but our IIP figures sure was a dampener. Lets see, where we move from here.
lovemeall26...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : vam_aru
I hope 3000 will be a bottom, But going by the global crisis we might have to live with more gap downs, and actually I want the consolidation should take longer with out much volatility, Then we can have a coordinated run up, we should not be seeing the violent short covering rallies, That is always not good, as it will not allow the markets to consolidate.
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
dear HLN,
why dont you believe in softwares ? It saves time buddy.
regards
shakti...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Hi sp.palo,
3000 is minor support for Nifty. But I feel Nifty
is more likely to slip to 2800 level within next few
days.
I use manual charts for TA. I do not have any software.
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
HI HLN,
BEFORE WE SEE NIFTY TRADING AT 2800 AND 3000 LEVELS, I THINK WE HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR 3180, THIS WILL ACT AS A STRONG SUPPORT FOR NIFTY.
ONLY IF NIFTY BREAKS 3180 AND CLOSES BELOW IT, WE WILL BE SEEING SUB 3000 LEVELS IN OCTOBER.
IF NIFTY MANAGES TO TRADE AND CLOSE ABOVE 3180 WE SHOULD BE READY TO SEE A RALLY UPTO 3800 AND 3900 IN OCTOBER.
I WILL TAKE RISK AND BUY NIFTY CALLS ON MONDAY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 3180 AND HOLD TILL EXPIRY.
REGARDS
SANJU...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Hi coolboy,
Sometimes news flow delays or accelrates the given
targets. Nifty support of 2970 remains intact. But
may be delayed for a day or two due to CRR cut by RBI
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear HLN sir ,
You may be right and i respect TA but 300 points cut in one day nifty for that i was shocked. Nothing else. Yeah over the next whole week we can even lose 400 points on nifty , i just disagreed with the monday target of yours , and it looks more unlikely with the huge pullback in DOW.
Even i can go wrong as i dont do much TA.
Regards...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : hindlevernet
Hi coolboy,
Sometimes news flow delays or accelrates the given
targets. Nifty support of 2970 remains intact. But
may be delayed for a day or two due to CRR cut by RBI
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear vam,
Bears have taken their toll. No serious slide in Dow
anymore. It may not fall below 7500. It touched 7883
on Friday. ...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : vam_aru
One more observation.
9th October 2007 = Dow 14,164.53
9th October 2008 = Dow 8579.19
What is in store for 9th October 2009 = ??????
Tracked by: 110 Boarders
Dear vam,
Nobody can put his finger on one figure. But if you
insist it is:
2770...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : vam_aru
Dear HLN,
TA or FA , There is a Global problem that can be seen even by starters in the markets,
The question is could you exactly predict The bottom using TA?, I think in this environment It can not be possible, only we can say it will do this and that...but no conclusions..
I`m not denying the TA will be useful, But all investors wanted to know is where is the bottom? can we predict the bottom using the TA ? if yes what is the Number ?
Thank you very much for your views.
Boarder Circle