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Market Outlook - Short Term
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I expect a big surprise from central bank. it can be in the form of excellent rate cut CRR cut and even in reverse repo rate. that will give a boost to the market for short term only giving a chance to go out of the market for some investors. thanks...
In reply to:
How much rate cut do you expect in repo & reverse repo?
Posted by :
MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger 
Tracked by: 150 Boarders
Add more only if comes below 2777....
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by :
SANJU786
Small shorts or puts can be initiated with a stop loss above 2850.
HIGH RISK HIGH RETURNS.
Sanju
Tracked by: 150 Boarders
Small shorts or puts can be initiated with a stop loss above 2850.
HIGH RISK HIGH RETURNS.
Sanju...
In reply to:
WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000
Posted by : SANJU786
HI HLN,
Yeah nifty will face solid resistance at 2860 levels.
But Nifty has to close above 2793 today to test 2840-2860 next week.
If nifty closes below 2793 today, than sure we will test 2633 before 2860 within few trading sessions.
Sanju
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As you wish Sir ! Respecting true seniors is the duty of, and in the betterment of, all juniors. regards....
In reply to:
Retail investors exiting on rallies
Posted by :
gandabaccha
from last 2 days heavy put writing at 2500 and 2600 levels,seems upside is very much capped for now as rate cut and indian stimulus package is factored in the prices,everybody try not to open any longs today even if market may move up in first hour of trade.
GANDABACCHA
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Shankar Sharma is 100% right. December will be worst month in 2008 for our market and panic will set in from all the corners. Stocks like Rcom, Tata Steel, Raliance, Reliance Infra, LT, Bhel, Reliance Petro will break october lows which can provide opportunity for long-term investors...
In reply to:
Market to see carnage worse than Oct ???
Posted by : investor11
Shankar Sharma the most accurate projector analyst of thais year and the biggest bear does it again
In cnbc channel he has repoerted saying late dec and jan market to see very big fall bigger than what we have seen in oct
This he attributed this to expected poor earning by corporate
Please put your valuable opinion on this to help boarders to save their hard earn money
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Today, will pave the way for an eventful weekend. There are expectations of policy changes both on the fiscal as well as on the monetary front. Indian markets are focusing more on the internal issues. There is a meltdown in commodities as well.
Markets may witness a touch of volatility today as well because traders will adjust positions going into what could be an important weekend. It could reach the previous resistance levels of 2,850 and move from there.
Asian Indices:
Asia is mixed but a couple of markets are doing very well like the Hang Seng which is up 2%, the Korean market is up a couple of percentage point as well. The others are a bit mixed, China is down somewhat, the Nikkei has not made a big stride. So it is mixed but there are a couple of markets, which have not done too badly.
On rate cuts, packages:
In a confusing kind of a global equity situation, there are suddenly a lot of triggers in a quiet December. There is rate cuts happening then there will be some kind of a bailout with the auto companies and the US market has been just tossing and turning. I don’t think you can make much sense of what the next big move is for the next three weeks or so. At least the S&P 500’s moves are a bit confusing for the last few days.
We keep talking about the US data, the interesting take away like we were talking about China yesterday - is a very slight bit of divergence which is creeping in between Asia and the US. If you look at the last six days - you just get a sense of a trading drift now. The MSCI-Asia index in the last six days has actually upped 1% while the S&P 500 is down 5% in that period.
It is not conclusive or a huge data point or anything but once the Asian markets have gone up 1% on average, the US is down 5%, so you can see that the moves are not strictly correlated and Asia is trying to put in slightly better performance over the last few days. I don’t know whether that will last very long but you can see the effort.
Now I don’t know whether this is because some of the long only kind of money is beginning to seek value in emerging markets across the board in Asia and whether that buying or the absence of deleverage or that kind of panic redemption led selling, that has subsided a bit across Asia, which is why stocks are not falling quite so much. It is difficult to ascertain what could be leading to this show of resilience in Asia but it is there for you to see the way China is moving, how some of the other Asian markets are sometimes not falling with their US cues. So it is interesting to keep an eye out there and see what is going on but otherwise it is a bit confusing I must concede.
On commodities:
Commodities are falling not because of any large currency moves, the dollar has also been in a tight range these last few days, and it is not like the dollar is going on a huge rally spree or is collapsing. So, the dollar-euro is relatively tight, the dollar-yen is also 93-95 relatively tight. So, commodities are falling because of underlying demand and economic assumptions.
What is interesting in the last few days is that commodities and stocks are not quite moving in the same direction, as they have been for the last few weeks and months. So, when you have big commodity collapses the markets also gets equally worried and both of them fall at the same time. But you can see on many of these days today is a example, where commodities have sold off completely but Asia is putting up a bit of a fight that the US fell, so there are interesting divergences which are emerging between different equity markets between different asset classes, which makes the picture a bit more confusing for sure.
As an equity investor, I don’t think you can take a whole lot of relief away from it the way commodities are collapsing because that is telling you what a lot of these investors feel about how economic things will pan out over the next few months and quarters and I think that inference cannot be comforting for even equity market participants. Of course commodity consuming market etc can derive some comfort from it, but generally the cause if you focus on that makes you a bit nervous.
We were super-divergent yesterday does it seem like the Nifty is set for higher levels?
The internals are interesting because you have got once again – on one hand you have got quite a bit of buying on the Nifty futures, which has happened from the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and that probably tells you that they are also playing for this package kind of a trigger so in the next couple of days we might see some kind of an upside. So, yesterday almost 800 crore of Nifty futures buying happened from the FIIs, which tells you that they are also warming up to that trade. I think shorts are in a bit of a corner right now because of the events, which lie ahead hopefully.
-Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor,CNBC TV18...
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yea alok.
markets will find its trend for the next 6 months after Q3 results which may be scary.
regards
shakti...
In reply to:
Retail investors exiting on rallies
Posted by : alokvarshney52
well said. If any person, like Shankar Sharma, who predicts the market trend with 100% accuracy, must have contacts with some groups which are controlling the markets for last few months. I think nobody can predict with such accuracy that too every time. It is a serious matter. SEBI should take a note of it.
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from last 2 days heavy put writing at 2500 and 2600 levels,seems upside is very much capped for now as rate cut and indian stimulus package is factored in the prices,everybody try not to open any longs today even if market may move up in first hour of trade.
GANDABACCHA...
In reply to:
Retail investors exiting on rallies
Posted by : TrueCompanion
Dear Princz, Please go though it again, I mentioned carrying forward position and not initiating a fresh position. If one can not start accumulating now, he will be just crazy to begin at Nifty 3000.
I firmly support your idea of adding more in case nifty breaks down 2500 on the lower side. I appreciate you have the urge to take challenges on the face of them. regards.
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well said. If any person, like Shankar Sharma, who predicts the market trend with 100% accuracy, must have contacts with some groups which are controlling the markets for last few months. I think nobody can predict with such accuracy that too every time. It is a serious matter. SEBI should take a note of it....
In reply to:
Retail investors exiting on rallies
Posted by : sp.palo
I agree googol. But you can never deny the advantage of long term investments and dont calculate things in a deep bear phase like this which none predicted.
QUOTE:
A Dosa on the plate is worth three on the pan.
UNQUOTE:
A burnt out dosa is worthless compared to a buttered dosa on the pan which will be served in a few minutes if you can control your hunger and anxiety.
regards
shakti
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100 bps rate cut could be expected...
In reply to:
How much rate cut do you expect in repo & reverse repo?
Posted by : MMB Messenger
Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger
Tracked by: 0 Boarder
Dear Princz, Please go though it again, I mentioned carrying forward position and not initiating a fresh position. If one can not start accumulating now, he will be just crazy to begin at Nifty 3000.
I firmly support your idea of adding more in case nifty breaks down 2500 on the lower side. I appreciate you have the urge to take challenges on the face of them. regards....
In reply to:
Retail investors exiting on rallies
Posted by : Princz
C`mon Dear, why are you posting such statements. I have read many of your wise statements and they oppose the one you made now... No one should dare enter at 3000 nifty levels, best strategy would be shorting. One can enter at 2600, 2500 and then accumulate till whatsoever levels Nifty may break, but not definitely at 3000. Be honest in your opinions, would you open a fresh position at such a level.?
yes yes yes rittu Mam ,
this is what i asked to BSR too ,
its dow now a days who is following nifty .
even otherwise things are so much of perfect sync that there seems to be a perfect plan on
when and how much to hype the level .
when the big news wud be out .
all this in the meantime is ploy to keep nifty/bse dull and down .
i feel that some index stocks are moving disproportionately in the game . may be that`s where the game will be reversed later !
ps : i know not all stock rise and fall the same etc etc.BUT the published bad news we have had till now is bad enough to rule out any fundamentals and logic ruling the market .
...
In reply to:
Retail investors exiting on rallies
Posted by : nightowl
TC
THIS IS TO YOU INCASE YOU MISS READING THIS MESSAGE... yes we are going to fall.. when is the question... i dont know yet.. working on it..stay in touch
Aunt ritts
wrong alokvarshney,
you have not analysed it correctly.... take daybefore(wednesday) for instance...
it was a sure shot up day.. but the market did not go up... take the 5 main counters traded that day... bharti, ongc,reliance,infosys,bhel.... all went down.... the rest went up.. did it mean anything to you??/..you see the nifty was being keptdown.... deliberately.. for what purpose is anyones guess... its not for me to discuss on a forum at least.nonetheless without discussing it i am hazarding a GUESS...my guess is , `for the last 45 mins of trade`..(we are trying to emulate the dow). now you are right when it comes to THE selling in those counters..it took place..but for one day.. perfect time to first shortsell for 3days and then enter those counters(i for one entered each one of them)... BECAUSE the very same went up today....This was a well thought out pattern.. and i for one had been expecting it for some days.. , just hadnt studied it enough to be abs sure.. by time i was sure i fell sick and could not make it to the p.c...,India has been able to figure out dows closing a good 10 hours before it happens.. study the charts again.. its not that our charts match the dows because we are following the dow.. its because we KNOW whats to happen there before it does and the same happens here first...This has been one of the emerging patterns of late... many more have been emerging, but you have to be very keen trader and a very observant one at that...
you can become a good trader by learning the technicals, but you can also become a great one by learning to see patterns and understanding them..,I go by one golden rule... there has to be logic behind everything that happens.. it for you to understand it..it is there for all to see, but its the individual who has to figure out the cryptics to it. market doesnt always do its own thing... its MADE to do things that others, in the right `places` want..
Regards
Nightowl
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Dear googol,
Vishal retail become the stock market operator stock because it started to putting in 5 % UC`s again and again, so no body sells , so volumes are low, and whenever they feel they will let it go, but once it turns to Lower circuit, you will never be able to sell and come out.......
In reply to:
Retail investors exiting on rallies
Posted by : googol
Ritz
I missed Vishal
:-(
But not the next one from the owl
Hold it for some time.
The volumes are very low in UCs
It may go a long way
Good Luck
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Dear vam,
Trend Indicators for today are showing bullish signals. Markets to be positively flat. Dont dare to short....
In reply to:
Is DOW Rallies are doctored?
Posted by : vam_aru
dear kadiyali,
What is your take today ? did you updated in your webpage..?
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I agree googol. But you can never deny the advantage of long term investments and dont calculate things in a deep bear phase like this which none predicted.
QUOTE:
A Dosa on the plate is worth three on the pan.
UNQUOTE:
A burnt out dosa is worthless compared to a buttered dosa on the pan which will be served in a few minutes if you can control your hunger and anxiety.
regards
shakti...
In reply to:
Retail investors exiting on rallies
Posted by : googol
Dear Sakthi,
I hold GHCL from 1988..IPO at 10
It touched 190 and now at 25 still falling
CAGR..4.7%
I hold Indusind bank from 2002 bought at 20
It touched 100 and today at 30 still falling
CAGR..7%
I hold Loyal textiles from 2002 bought at 92
It touched 250 and today at 70 still falling
CAGR..-4.5%
I hold Manali Petro from 2003 bought at 5.6
It touched 20 and today at 6.5 still falling
CAGR..3%
I bought IFCI in 2002 at 8 and sold in 2007 at 25
CAGR..25%
It touched 100 and today at 17 still falling
Had I not sold CAGR..13%
The bluest of the blue chips Tatasteel has moved from 80 to 150 in the last 6 years In between it touched 900
CAGR..11%
If you want I can give more examples.
Stocks are for BUYING and SELLING
AS
LIFE IS FOR LIVING & ENJOYING
A Dosa on the plate is worth three on the pan and six as batter
GOOD lUCK
