You must be confident about your investment decision and forget about day to day movements in the scrip. Nothing has changed at IBSEC from the time it was at 60 last month, the only thing is that big operators want retail investors to panic and sell so that they can buy in huge volumes and shore up the price making huge profits by selling then. There is unconfirmed news that Fidelity would be cornering a huge chunk of IBSEC shares for the ongoing NFO of VALUE fund. This stock will be around 82 in 6-12 months time. Please note that it is not falling steeply and also the volumes are not high so there is no cause of alarm....

Telecom sector r most effewctive sectors for buying but in some companies. In private sector Airtel, Rcom and Tata only the companies which can stay for long term becuase:- 1. a Increse Spectrum charges 2.Cut termination charges 3.Pay per second plan is huge bomb on their revenues 4.Number portability 5.Established govt. brands mtnl, bsnl 6.Tata, Rcom and Airtel have capability to bear losses atleast one yr and new companies may not stay for long term in this sector Investment in these companies with a view for 3 yrs can ive higher return. Please give ur views also....

Tommorow Opening Analysis. If Nifty Close below 5000. Then tommorow opening will be in red or negative. Or If mkt close above 5000 then tommorow opening will be in green Or positive. Considering 7 lac shares r join 5200 call december option. and 2.5 lakh reduce from 4800put december option. Now I m waiting for ur views. Please share ur views also. Thankyou....

History has shown (and repeated) such promoters are not professionals, and are there only to eat out public money. How many times Sanjay Dalmia`s name/his companies` name hit the headlines right from late 1980`s - all about ONLY EVASIONS (DUTY, TAX) and now about forged documents! He being politically strong, having money power, always escaped from any likely punishments. This time too he will escape, you see. And Indiabulls will eat the bulls shit! ...

Telecom sector r most effewctive sectors for buying but in some companies. In private sector Airtel, Rcom and Tata only the companies which can stay for long term becuase:- 1. Increse Spectrum charges 2.Cut termination charges 3.Pay per second plan is huge bomb on their revenues 4.Number portability 5.Established govt. brands mtnl, bsnl 6.Tata, Rcom and Airtel have capability to bear losses atleast one yr and new companies may not stay for long term in this sector Investment in these companies with a view for 3 yrs can ive higher return. Please give ur views also....

In Telecom sector I think TATA , Reliance and Airtel these 3 companies can carryon its business for long term because 1.Enough Competition 2. Increase sppectrum charges 3.Cut off termination charges 4.One per second plan also a big bomb for its revenue 5.New companies cant stable its earnings 6.Aready govt brands r there MTL, BSNL. New companies cant stable its earnings. And in private sector only these 3 companies can stay for long term. And increase tehir revenue by increasing sales beacuse It have capability to bear losses atleast one yr. It will help to remove new competition. Currently their shares r providing at very best level. After 3 yrs these can give atleast 80% or more return. ...

Yesterday some targets r hit but the target for closing is nealy hit. tara23 was the perfect analysis for closing strategy (narrow range) Today please analyse closing and please also analysis tommorow opening. Considering the following matters. 1. Nifty is not breaking 5140 on upside 2. Nifty is not breaking 5080 on downside 3.DOW and Nasdaq was close on upside 4.European mkts also direct the mkt direction after 1pm 5.Till Put option r more active then call options 6.Rel bonus has been covered now they can lead mkt to downside 7. Any other factor that u know My Opinion :- If Nifty break 5140 decisevely then it will close near by 5180. And if it breaks 5080 decisevely on downside then it will close 5021. My Strong opinion is that mkt will round b/w 5080 and 5140. For Tommorow opening I will analyis after 3 - 3.30PM. And Please give ur views Thankyou....

Dear Guest, you should know a few facts about operators. The companies they deal with need to have the following :

1) High owner stake

2) Low floating stock

3) No FII or MF role in the company.

If you have any idea of the method of working by the operators, you would know the reasons for the above. IBSEC has no role for operators because it does not meet their basic requirements at all.

...

Dear Raj, had contacted Mr. N. K. Gupta, co. secretary of SRF today. He clarified the following about the buyback :
1) The buyback offer with Rs. 160/- as the upper cut off price had been sent to SEBI, but has not been received back from SEBI after the due approval, although, it is expected soon.
2) The buyback would be quiet irrelevant, as the market price is much higher. Only in case there is a price collapse, then the buyback would kick in. It will be announced once it is received from SEBI.
3) There is no provision of a buyback at a higher price. If at all such a proposal is to be taken up in future, it will need to be taken up by the board as a fresh proposal, and then by the shareholders, and then will need SEBI approval. They are not aware of any move in this direction.

...

I don`t understand chart patterns, but the fact that it is falling steadily in a rising market, makes me worry about what would happen when the market falls. What would be the low price, at which we can average.

I have been trying to contact the company repeatedly to get some confirmation of the buyback being in place or not. I am sorry to inform that so far none of them have made any definite statement confirming the buyback. Why don`t the other boarders also do the same and report the replies they receive from the company.

...

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala`s

TEN COMMANDMENTS FOR INVESTING

1) Be an optimist - The necessary quality for investing success.

2) Expect a realistic return. Balance fear and greed.

3) Invest on broad parameters and the larger picture. Make it an act of wisdom, not intelligence.

4) Caveat emptor. Never forget this four-letter word - R-I-S-K.

5) Be disciplined. Have a game plan.

6) Be flexible. For Investing is always in the realms of possibilities.

7) Contrarian investing. Not a rule, not ruled out.

8) Its important what you buy. It`s more important at what price you buy.

9) Have conviction. Be patient. Your patience may be tested, but your
conviction will be rewarded.

10) Make exit an independent decision, not driven by profit or loss.

...

Thanks, Shubham. I can see several differences in what we consider important. However, the main thing is to base important decisions upon objective criteria. I am sure this list would be useful for all of us.

...

Dear Shubham, I just noted that your reply was aimed at me.

I would request you and all other boarders to please evaluate your investments based on cold logic and rational expectations. I hope that my posts have not introduced any emotional element in investing. The biggest mistake we do often so is to fall in love with our stocks. The adoption of Warren Buffett style of investing with very long term holds, requires an additional discipline of constant evaluation of the concerned companies. I would suggest having a checklist ( I had given mine earlier ), and keep ticking off your checklist boxes regularly, so that you have the comfort that your continuous evaluation of your investment is in place.

It would be useful for all of us to learn as to what are the special features of Geod that you found as compelling investment, and worth increasing your investment from 1500 to 7500 shares.

Thanks

...

Rumple, I am still not very sure that Geod will make a lot of money from Spokn, due to a variety of reasons. Some of them are :

1) Geod has till now operated with high margins, from 35% to even 60 % of gross. For the first time, they are moving into an area which has margins less than 10% of gross billings. Culturally, the way to maximise profits from this kind of business is totally different. I don`t think they can make the transition so comfortably.

2) Being generally risk averse, historically, Geod has not made major investments into marketing in any of its product areas. A product like Spokn has to be launched against various established players and will need major promotional investment.

3) The ideal course of action would be for Geod to ally itself with a global biggie, taking a minor stake in a JV, make the global Co. launch the product with all fanfare and with the necessary firepower. However, this approach doesn`t seem to be contemplated.

I wonder what is the take of our boarder friend Madhur Kotharay on this subject.

...

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala`s

TEN COMMANDMENTS FOR INVESTING

1) Be an optimist - The necessary quality for investing success.

2) Expect a realistic return. Balance fear and greed.

3) Invest on broad parameters and the larger picture. Make it an act of wisdom, not intelligence.

4) Caveat emptor. Never forget this four-letter word - R-I-S-K.

5) Be disciplined. Have a game plan.

6) Be flexible. For Investing is always in the realms of possibilities.

7) Contrarian investing. Not a rule, not ruled out.

8) Its important what you buy. It`s more important at what price you buy.

9) Have conviction. Be patient. Your patience may be tested, but your
conviction will be rewarded.

10) Make exit an independent decision, not driven by profit or loss.

...

Dear Rajesh

Your response to HLN`s post missed out the essence of his message, which was, that " Our country is on a steady growth path, it can grow to unimagined heights, and in our lifetimes, maybe we can see our country standing shoulder to shoulder with other global giants. "

The projections and figures, in actual reality would necessarily be different. But if a country has broad growth momentum, stock market cannot be very far behind.

Have a great Sunday.

...

Saint, got an interesting mail on worrying. It goes as :


" There are only two things to worry about

Either you are well or you are sick

If you are well, then there is nothing to worry about,

But if you are sick, there are only two things to worry about,

Whether you will get well or you will die

If you get well, then there is nothing to worry about,

But if you die, there are only two things to worry about

Either you go to heaven or to hell

If you go to heaven, there is nothing to worry about

AND

If you go to hell, you will be so busy shaking hands with

all your Geod boarders that you would have no time at all to worry !!!


So Why Worry ! "...

The worry would have been if they HAD increased their stake.

Rather, some of them like Mahesh Murthy have pledged their shares to avail of finance for their other requirements.

Where do promoters get the funds to hike their stake in companies ? Obviously by siphoning out the Cos cash and rerouting it back as share capital. The fact that Geod promoters did not increase their stake or issue warrants to themselves (another bad practice, I got out of Bharti Shipyards the minute they announced these warrants), shows them as good corporate citizens. ( Has any Infy promoter hiked his stake ever ?)

The company`s cash position would enable it to buy other cos. (which have a great idea but don`t have fanance), and give it global scale. If they can do it successfully, they could be a mini infy in making.

The dividend has been hiked up recently. You have to appreciate their self discipline, as the real advantage of dividends usually flows to the promoters, who get large tax free dividend income in Crores. Even with my 4000 share my receipts would be barely 3-4000, too little to be of much use. By keeping the dividend payouts low, they were sacrificing some of their personal comfort in order to achieve more for the company.

I find their actions and motives completely above board.

...

Briefly, they are :
THE AXIOMS

1: ON RISK Worry is not a sickness, but a sign of health. If you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
1.1: Always play for meaningful stakes.
1.2: Resist the allure of diversification.

2: ON GREED Always take your profit too soon.

2.3: Decide in advance what you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

3: ON HOPE When the ship starts to sink, don’t pray. Jump.

3.4: Accept small losses cheerfully. Expect to experience several whilst awaiting a large gain.

4: ON FORECASTS Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

5: ON PATTERNS Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.
5.5: Beware the Historian’s Trap (History does not repeat itself).
5.6: Beware the Chartist’s Illusion (Graphs lie).
5.7: Beware the Correlation and Causality delusions (don’t find patterns).
5.8: Beware the Gambler’s Fallacy (..it’s only luck).

6: ON MOBILITY Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.
6.9: Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.
6.10: Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.

7: ON INTUITION A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.
7.11: Never confuse a hunch with a hope.

8: ON RELIGION AND THE OCCULT It is unlikely that God’s plan for the universe includes making you rich.
8.12: If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.
8.13: A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place.

9: ON OPTIMISM AND PESSIMISM Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.

10: ON CONSENSUS Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong.
10.14: Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy is when nobody else wants it.

11: ON STUBBORNNESS If is doesn’t pay off first time, forget it.
11.15: Never try to save a bad investment by “averaging down” (buying more).

12: ON PLANNING Long range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take your own long range plans, or other people’s, seriously.
12.16: Shun long-term investments.

....