it is a present and future jewel... which an aggressive enterprenuer cornering all shares.......

I expect price discovery close to Rs 300 and retail availability at Rs285. I will take my chance and go for the issue with time horizon of more than one year....

it is a good price... to acquire even at the higher end......

CGRK On the credit side is Rs 9,500 crores treasury stock sale proceeds + 5,500 crores already existing + Rs 5,000 crores Q4 profits = Rs 25,000 crores. What most of you are not considering is that the Rs 9,500 crores is TAXFREE profits which are not reflected as profits in the EPS being an exceptional item. So Rs 25,000 crores is the clear profit after tax for 2009-10! Now regarding MAT increase that is not applicable for Q4. Regarding tax holiday for NELP VIII there will be many interpretations and misinterpretations of the PSC and the initial offer. Let this matter drag on for the next 5 years. Regarding Q4 possibility of a gross profit of Rs 6,400 crores exists and I have taken 23% taxation which is to be extrpolated to Q1 2010-11. So take another Rs 200 crores per quarter if you wish. However MAT is supposed to be applicable to the compnay as a whole and not productwise. RIL will have to see how to pass on since anyway there is quite some inflation on the cards. Regarding the court case we have to see how the cash assets are utilised. Right now RIL seems not much interested in ramping further gas production from this cash and may be concentrating on the GRM and Petrochemical side of of the business. Irrespective of the court case there is a feeling that Mukesh Ambani should honour the MOU so Rs 30,000 crores in 13 years cannot be more than Rs 10,000 crores settled upfront. So the provsion is much more than amply made. Your point 1 and how it is applied is not very clear to me so I have already taken the maximum. Anything RIL can save from the Rs 10,000 crores is positive for RIL. The amount available to RIL is a minimum Rs 15,000 crores for 2010-11. With this RIL can grow at least 25%+ in 2010-11 partly due to the natural growth and partly the cash liquidity availbale with RIL. RIL had also indicated that it will revive most of the operations it shutdown due to the crash and recession. The Q3 result show RIL at an EPS of Rs 48 for 2010-11 (+ Rs 25 To Rs 35 due to the treasury stock sale and to further take place not taken in EPS calcualtions). We should expect an EPS of Rs 75 and a damage of around 10% as you say in the worst case scenario. Hence `minimum` target for RIL is Rs 1,500 for the next 12 months in worst case scenario and could just as easily be Rs 1,750 if things go RIL`s way. That should see NIFTY heading towards 6,000 levels....

CGRK - Q1 and Q2 results included income tax creditted to a RESERVE account. I did not notice in Q3 since there was no mention so we can look at it in two ways. 1. The profit so far have assumed the tax of 34%. So the profit is still quite good. It may be that this tax is to be paid after the CAPEX on oil and gas has been achieved since RIL is to FIRST make up the CAPEX. 2. The tax holiday if it has been struck down is tragic. Could be the reason why RIL is not ramping up production untill there is ALL CLEAR. Well this is GOI. We talk about EGO of Mukesh Ambani and Anil Ambani but forget about the EGO of leaders in a majority government. Everytime a Congress led GOI has mustered a majority for UPA. This administration might get carried away and land themselves in a big muddle dictating their way. UNFORTUNATE INDEED!...

All these are adding to the recovery process of the reality sector getting a bit slow, nothing else....

sir i agree that he will have to pay high, but still he will buy it(as no other option before him) and to save 82k rs you wont stay in a rented home for life. so these taxes and all are always increased in such things which cant be ignored :) regards alok aggarwal...

I think 300-350 range is overpriced. If price discoverd at lower price band of 300 and retail investors getting a discount of 5%, then 285 is somewhat reasonable price. In my view fair price is around 225.
Present price 375 is not a realistic price, mainly due to low free float. Pls remember it was trading at 500+ level in mid-Jan`10. Post issue free float increases to over 11%, we can notice more activity and price will correct further. I prefer to skip this issue. ...

Book building price discovered within the price band range (300-350)....

Thank you very much for your detailed reply to my both queries. My EPS estimate for FY2011 is around 70-72, whereas your estimate of 75 justifies my calculations. ...

bhusbhac-Thanks for the valuable info on RIL`s Q4 outlook. Me too maintain a positive outlook. Hike in MAT already discounted.
Sir, I am not negative on RIL, but be prepared for the worst case - scenario:
1.Gas produced from NELP I-VII does not get a tax holiday, earnings from the KG D-6 block taxed at 34%.
2.A negative ruling by the Supreme Court in the RIL-RNRL gas dispute
In this case (hope 1&2 doesn`t happen)in your opinion how much damage on EPS estimate for FY2011-12. Around 9-11%..or even more? ...

Two adverse factors affecting RIL`s EPS:
1.Budget 2010-11 has increased the Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) including the surcharges to 20%. To account for the higher incidence of MAT, RIL’s FY2011E earnings per share (EPS)to be lowered.
2.Expecting some clarification on the income tax exemption under section 80 IB on profits from natural gas production for a period of 7 years from the blocks offered under the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP)
If gas produced from NELP I-VII does not get tax holiday under section 80 IB, RIL’s earnings from the KG D-6 block would be taxed at 34% instead of the MAT rate of 20%. This will affect RIL`s share price by Rs 50-60. However, ambiguity remains on this front till a clarification from Oil Ministry.
RIL boarder`s valuable comments & opinion on the matter highly appreciated......

Varner- An immediate effect will be the prices of incomplete houses rising by 3% after a service tax of 10.3% including surcharge is imposed.
The housing sector was on a recovery path after many months as buyers returned gradually lured by sharp price cuts. ...

Got credited (ECS) on 22nd Feb @Rs18 per share....

Hi to all,
"Everyone is a friend, until they prove otherwise."
Wish you all a Happy Friendship Day........

PWC defending citing Bombay High Court 1986 Verdict:
Case - AF Ferguson & Co.and Tri-Sure India Ltd
"An auditor should not be held responsible for tracking down ingenious and carefully-laid fraud schemes in a company"
When there is nothing to arouse their suspicion and when these frauds are perpetrated by the tried servants of the company and are UNDETECTED for years by the DIRECTORS.
As per the contract between the auditor and company, the onus of providing accurate information was on the company.
The auditor’s mind is unbiased unlike that of an investigator , who approaches work with the presumption that fraud has taken place.
In the present circumstances either auditors to change their approach or WE NEED ONLY INVESTIGATORS NOT AUDITORS....!!!
...

You are right Sir, The promoters stocks were sold by the lenders on margin calls, as Rajus` cannot meet the margin calls on time. Stocks were pledged with lenders during Sept`06 at higher prices. We can`t say promoters purposefully reduced their stake. It shouldn`t be interpreted as Rajus` relinquishing their stake in the Co.
Pls note:-
Satyam is expected to report the highest growth in rupee revenues for the December quarter among its peer group and its dollar revenues are expected to be only a tad below its guidance. ...

"Resignation by individual directors is a signal of board’s ignorance of recent happenings."
Aberdeen A M, largest institutional investor in Satyam is still bullish on Satyam core business. They still feel Raju is well placed to lead this recovery. They believe Raju is keen to salvage the company and promoter group reputation. So, they are not aiming for a management change. Reduction in promoter stake may not necessarily be viewed negatively.
There is still chance of a recovery as Satyam is still a very profitable and cash rich company........