Market View

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Jatt,

High level meeting between former RBI governors (yes plural) and FM.. lol... they are afraid of GREENSPAN eras clearly. LOL

Second the buzz word, LAF window has propped up in Indian finance circles.. something similar to FED WINDOW... what a laugh. The average middle class and even the poor indian has no clue there is so much turmoil around. He only accepts the sun and the moon as indicators of normalcy coz his daily life is so disrupted here in India anyway. A hungry stomach and Green Span`s mistakes just dont make mix here in India.

Then you see an Arun ramnanthan being asked to do the role of HENRY PAULSON and he is shying away from it all, never before was he asked to face media glare....so a henry paulson parallel here in India calming the investors.

Then ICICI BANK chief speaks so well ur convinced that those rumours were baseless, i know now why ICICI went places.

But to be at peace buy at least one PUT as the above are not NONEVENTS that they are disguised to be. LOL

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : lovemeall26

Hello pradesh,
Just like things seldom escape the hawkish gaze of the eagle (my homepage pic), I also seldom escapse the undertone in the messages to me. Yes I did notice Bhel in your message, but since I dont follow it, I did not want to give levels for something I dont know. Hope you got the point.
lovemeall26

How much more downside do you see for the Sensex?

Posted by : fmcgbites

sensex will get close to 10000 but will not break it in this downward move.

Why Lehman Failed & others didn`t . P-II

Posted by : XD

Guys
I fail to understand one thing is that if others (US and Europe) are printing currency in their backyard without any real backing for them (securities - like gold) then why is everybody including us trying to get thier paper (as good a Zimbabwian paper (where they have million dollar notes with which they might be able to buy a loaf of bread at best). Something worng in my uinderstanding or we are all being taken for a big ride to nowhere land ??
Calrifications are most welcome.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : radhika_nandlal

Jatt,

High level meeting between former RBI governors (yes plural) and FM.. lol... they are afraid of GREENSPAN eras clearly. LOL

Second the buzz word, LAF window has propped up in Indian finance circles.. something similar to FED WINDOW... what a laugh. The average middle class and even the poor indian has no clue there is so much turmoil around. He only accepts the sun and the moon as indicators of normalcy coz his daily life is so disrupted here in India anyway. A hungry stomach and Green Span`s mistakes just dont make mix here in India.

Then you see an Arun ramnanthan being asked to do the role of HENRY PAULSON and he is shying away from it all, never before was he asked to face media glare....so a henry paulson parallel here in India calming the investors.

Then ICICI BANK chief speaks so well ur convinced that those rumours were baseless, i know now why ICICI went places.

But to be at peace buy at least one PUT as the above are not NONEVENTS that they are disguised to be. LOL

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : Guest

Hi FMCGbites

This guy is not tired of boasting. For some time he was silenced. He forgeting that his knowledge has failed him and umpteen times he has predicted wrong. Some days back, he had said nifty will never go to 3800. Which book he was reading? There no use reading him. He must retire like Ganguli.

This message will be deleted. 101% guaranteed

Why Lehman Failed & others didn\\\\\\\\`t . P-II

Posted by : Kalidas

for Richie,

Good puzzling question for many. Here are the answers ( I can not dilate on them here)

Richie:
Initially, when the stocks go up, the gold will come down and US$ may go up
Kalidas:
when you talk of $ going up, specify which stocks go up or down - US or India?
- Normally, when the stocks go up, it is known to be a measure of confidence, so the gold goes down. The $ goes up because to buy US stocks, one need to buy $. (It does not happen nowadays)

Richie:
Sir don`t you think that the current crisis is due to the lack of money in the system ?

Kalidas:
Right and wrong.
Right: The money disappeared into losses, so there is lack of money. It is like you lost 500,000 and have nothing left in the bank account.
Wrong: Every day you hear that FED prints $700 billions, FED intervenes with $900 billions, European Union inputs $650 billions (Euro 500 Bln) British Government pumps in 300 bln pounds in the form of take over and money supply

Further, these Kubers in charge of finances, have started issuing blanket guarantee for all banks. How could you stand a guarantor for some one when you do not know his status or extent of obligations?

Today, a stage has come that A Bank does not trust another bank. After few months, we will have situation that One Nation does not Trust another Nations. What will they do then?

Richie:
Don`t you think that the current rally in gold is also speculative

Kalidas: Anything one does not know and still try to meddle into it, it is called Speculation. All nations are now speculating because they promise to float/guarantee/disburse billions of paper currencies without knowing what for? This is speculative.

Gold is the only commodity which is not speculative over long run. My family bought Gold in 1961 for Rs 260/tola which is now Rs 13000/tola, that is 50 times in 50 years or 100% gain every year on simple rate basis. Property is next.

When we try to marry, we tend to speculate that the bride will be very good, she will mix up with the family, she will take care of entire family etc for which you spend rs 5 lakhs towards wedding expenses (investment). If the bride is really good enough, your stock did well and you would say that it was investment. If bride is not really that good, you would blame yourself for speculating.

The difference beween the Investment and speculation is as thin as the difference between Dawn and Day or Night; difference between DUSK and Evening or Night.

Richie:
Jab Insaan Ke paas paisa nahi hota, to kya woh sona lene nikelega kya

Kalidas: when the people distrust paper money, that you call wealth, they will go only for Gold. In second world war or partition time between India and pakistan, people fled their homes with gold, not paper currency which may not be valid in other country.

Jas Sona hi sachha paisa hai to Nakli paisa ki kya jaroorat?

Kalidas, Hong Kong
13-10-2008

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : pradesh

Thanks lovemeall for your reply.

I was also expecting suitable level for BHEL. It might have escaped your attention. Never mind..We may talk about that some other time.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : pkjattking

So far as the Europeans pump money into mkts starting this morning and went to work,,,,,,, Americans have not pumped a single dime ...they are just talking .... no action..... expect they give some aig,,,,,, I think mkts will do fine if they keep there mouth shut mkts will do fine.....lol

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : d_k

Dear novice1000,
You have summed up very nicely.

regards
deepak

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Yeah.. that is a bit strange!...

That continious MAD SELLing by those FIIs give an indication of things to come!

I am still in the mode of figuring out what could be the trigger for Deep Bear Correction if that has to happen at all.

As you know, Nationalisation of banks are not good for Equity Street although may be good for Main Street! Similarly, generating liquidity for stock market is not good in medium term as that shows that there are some inherent problems with equity markets.

I have still some time to figure out that BS Big Joker of the GAME to support all those TA data! Let us see! I expect that such trigger to be PLAYed within 3 weeks (by first week of November) in order to support those technical data and facts :)

Gud luk & happy investing! :)

Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177

Posted by : Lalitdeshpandey

Dear Friends,

In recent past we have seen diper correction in Chines market. I have studied Investment strategy of FIIS in emerging markets during last 18 Months.

CORRECTION In INDIAN MARKET MAY END FOLLOWING LEVELS OF INDICES :

Sensex : may fall to 10587
Nifty : may fall to 3177.

This is the levels we can think buying with long view. Time will tell us. We shall also look into our Economic growth data also in parity with Global cues.
Thanx,


LALIT.

Where is the BOTTOM ? Sensex-10587/Nifty-3177

Posted by : Sriman35

Hi Lalit desh pandey,

It is possible that we may not see new lows for another 3 months. Have a look at the previous lows in 2008. Jan, Mar, Jul, Oct, ???.

In my personal opinion market will bottom out between Dec08 and Mar09. and then there will be few dull months (I prefer to call it as gestation period). Any recovery before that is just coz of covering shorts/technical rebound/suckers rally.

Regards,
Sri

Those With Sense of History Say It`s Time to Invest

Posted by : my_money

The four most dangerous words for investors are: This time is different.

In 1999, technology companies with no earnings or sales were valued at billions of dollars. But this time was different, investors told themselves. The Internet could not be missed at any price.
They were wrong. In 2000 and 2001 technology stocks plunged, erasing trillions of dollars in wealth.

Now investors have again convinced themselves that this time is different, that the credit crisis will push economies worldwide into the deepest recession since the Depression. Fear runs even deeper today than greed did a decade ago.

But in their panic, investors are ignoring 60 years of history. Since the Depression, governments have become far more aggressive about intervening when credit markets seize up or economies struggle. And those interventions have generally succeeded. The recessions since World War II, while hardly easy, have been far less painful than the Depression.

Now some veteran investors, including G. Kenneth Heebner, a mutual fund manager who has one of the best long-term track records on Wall Street, say that the sell-off has gone much too far and stocks are poised to rally powerfully if the downturn is less severe than investors fear.

“The fact is, there are a lot of tremendous bargains out there,” said Mr. Heebner, who manages about $10 billion in several mutual funds. Indeed, by many measures stocks are as cheap as they have been in the last 25 years.

He pointed to Chesapeake Energy [CHK 20.53 4.01 (+24.27%) ], a natural gas producer that he owns in his CGM Focus mutual fund. In July, Chesapeake traded for $63 a share. On Friday, it fell as low as $11.99.

He says that investors with a stomach for risk and a long time horizon should consider following Warren E. Buffett, who in the last three weeks has invested $8 billion in Goldman Sachs

Mr. Heebner expects world economies to contract over the next year. But he said the market plunge in the last week was no longer being driven by rational analysis. Stocks are probably falling because of a combination of panic and forced selling by hedge funds that must meet margin calls from their lenders, he said.

Mr. Heebner’s funds have not avoided the carnage this year. The CGM Focus fund is down about 42 percent so far in 2008. But his long-term track record is impressive. In the decade that ended Dec. 31, 2007, CGM Focus rose 26 percent a year, including reinvested dividends, making it among the best-performing mutual funds.

Mr. Heebner is not alone in his optimism.

“I think in years to come — I wouldn’t say months to come — we will perceive this as being a great value-buying opportunity,” said David P. Stowell, a finance professor at Northwestern and a former managing director at JPMorgan Chase. “Two and three years from now, it will seem very smart.”

Even before their jaw-dropping plunge of the last month, stocks were not expensive by historical standards, based on fundamentals like earnings and cash flow. Now, after falling 30 percent or more since early September, stocks in stalwart, profitable corporations like Nokia [NOK 16.30 0.57 (+3.62%) ], Exxon Mobil [XOM 65.86 3.50 (+5.61%) ] and Boeing [BA 43.99 2.19 (+5.24%) ] are trading at nine times their annual profits per share or less. Many smaller companies are even cheaper. Some of those stocks are trading at five times earnings or less.

Those ratios are historically low. Over all, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is trading at about 13 times its expected profits for 2009, its lowest level in decades. In contrast, at the height of the technology bubble in early 2000, the stocks in the S.& P. traded at about 30 times earnings, the highest level ever. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury bond paid about 6 percent interest, compared with less than 4 percent today.

Investors have fled stocks in favor of government bonds, insured bank deposits and other low-risk investments because they are deeply afraid of the worldwide economic crisis, said Stephen Haber, an economic historian and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. But he said he believed that fear might have gone too far.

“If there is good and wise policy, and government moves effectively, this need not play itself out in ways like the Great Depression, which is the image that is playing itself out in people’s mind,” Mr. Haber said. Government action typically does not work immediately, and banking crises around the world often require multiple interventions, he said.

Still, optimists remain in the minority on Wall Street. Most investors seem to believe that the credit crisis will do substantial damage to stocks and overall economic activity.

source: CNBC (to be continued.)