`When others abandoned KG Basin, Mukesh took up the gauntlet`. I have heard from someone that Mr. Bush had informed India that there are huge oil & gas reserves in KG Basin area. This report was way back before Mukesh started his exploration. The Americans knew that there are huge reserves from various satellite data inputs and extensive research work. ...

ks desh - It is hardly a guess. It is more or less certain once this case matter is out of the way one way or the other. Anyway no matter what anyone else may say and no matter what judgment emanates I am quite sure there are reports that the KG D6 block has far more reserves than what has been made out to be by GOI and DGH. So 200 mmscmd with nominal addition of capex is quite sure. If there is a global meltdown again this is the ONLY factor that can make India shine. However if the global crisis is over than RIL is heading towards 4000 since if the refining margins goes up 200% (still below peak) then this business alone accounts for Rs 3400 crores per quarter. Oil and Gas at 80 mmscmd is Rs 2000 crores because of the gas dispute and Rs 2500 crores if the dispute is sorted out. Petchem is easily Rs 2300 crores. So the EPS of RIL can easily shoot up to Rs 40-50 in ONE GO and all of a sudden!...

After successfully dabbling in organised retail in 2006, Mukesh Ambani, chairman of India’s largest private sector company, Reliance Industries (RIL), has now set his eyes on no-frills, low-cost housing. The initiative, still on the drawing board, could be kicked off by 2010. An RIL official said the company would do large projects and at multiple locations. “RIL has deep pockets and excellent execution skills. It has executed two large projects like the Jamnagar refinery and the KG-D6 basin in a record time. Another such large project is only obvious for the company to get into,” said a source close to the development. RIL holds a land bank of 5,000 hectares in Haryana through Reliance Ventures, a subsidiary of RIL created by forming a joint venture with Haryana State Industrial Investment Development Corporation and over 4,840 hectares through the Navi Mumbai SEZ, in association with Cidco (the Maharashtra government’s industrial and township development arm). “RIL is sitting on a huge land bank with regard to its special economic zones (SEZs) in various locations. It could be putting that to commercial use for mega housing projects in the no-frills category,” said an analyst from a Mumbai-based broking firm who tracks RIL closely. Low-cost housing has become the new mantra for realty players across the country. Sector analysts say the global economic recession ended a four-year property boom in India, largely driven by the luxury-housing segment, which resulted in a nearly three-fold increase in residential prices in major cities. “Entry of corporate houses like RIL will be good for the market, as it will uplift the real estate sector into an industry. Every business house that enters the sector, be it Godrej, Mahindra, Piramal, Tata and now RIL, will help in making the procedures in the sector more transparent,” said Rajeev Talwar, Group Executive Director, DLF. Earlier this year, the Tata Group’s unlisted firm, Tata Housing Development Company, said it would invest up to Rs 100 crore in a 1,200-unit township at Boisar, on the outskirts of Mumbai, and would sell apartments at prices ranging between Rs 3.9 lakh and Rs 6.7 lakh. The company aims to build up to 15,000 low-cost homes over the next four years across several cities, including Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore. ...

ks desh - RIL is mainly down not because of the present court case but the fall in GRMs. RIL`s revenues and capex because of the 2nd refinery is heavily weighted because of this business. Petchem margins still offset the poor performance of GRMs. Revenues from oil and gas should be expected to go up steeply from next quarter irrespective of the result in HSC no matter how adverse it may seem. IF GOI`s PSC is defeated it also means that RIL can charge US$ 6.00 per mmscmd from non-GOI priority sectors. So 60 mmscmd at US$ 4.24 is confirmed, NTPC 12 mmscmd at US$ 2.34 after the case matter in HHC is decided (I feel it will be settled under PSC after this case) and 28 mmscmd to RNRL after the Dadri Plant is set up in next two - three years and ramp up beyond these quantiites interim and / or permanent basis at US$ 4.24 PLUS to offset the loss in RNRL supplies. We are talking about the supplies to RNRL and the US$ 6.00 only two - three years hence. Now if GOI wins the case and the PSC is upheld then the two brothers will have to settle in some cash between themselves. HHC was unable to succeed in getting the two brothers to sit on the negotiating table however HSC might succeed. I still expect that this lower revenue business will give as much proit as the GRMs. I see the model as follows from Q4 (one quarter deferred due to the court case in November): RESULTS in Q2 OTHERS 1100.00 OIL & GAS 122600.00 UNALLOCATE 0.00 REFINING 134700.00 PETROCHEM 219500.00 Total 477900.00 PROJECTIONS in Q4 RESULTS OTHERS 1500.00 OIL & GAS 200000.00 UNALLOCATE 0.00 REFINING 150000.00 PETROCHEM 23000.00 Total 581500.00 The cost savings due to the liquidity and cash balance of Rs 19,000 crores, salary cuts and right sizing because of the merger should see a natural increase. A 20% increase in gross profits by Q4 should see the EPS in Q2 at Rs 23.40 go to at least EPS in Q4 to Rs 28 which was its best quarter perforamnce in 2007-2008. Since all projects have been completed in all respects we might see at least 10% QOQ growth since the projects are waiting in cue for a takeoff anytime. We can make a model as follows for nst six quarters. Q3 - Rs 25 Q4 - Rs 28 Q1 - Rs 30 Q2 - Rs 33 Q3 - Rs 37 Q4 - Rs 40 With the caveat that if global markets recover and we are heading for inflation all over the world RIL can achieve an EPS of Rs 40 from Q4 itself. It would not surprise me one bit. So in Q4 I expect RIL to be at Rs 1500 ex bonus without difficulty and Rs 1800 should global markets recover according to Q1 calendar year after they have cooled off in their winter. ...

Dear ks desh & Mr. Novin Thank you for your compliments about co. in Kumarmanglam Birls`s hand I have written in my previous comments you may read my all comments click active Boarders & then HMP 39 Now look one interesting point last year nine months profits was only Rs.3.23 Crores (April 08 to Dec 08) against that for current year April 09 to Dec 09 may be around Rs. 93/-Crores because Q3 net profit I project about Rs.32 Crores therefore Q1+Q2=61.11 Crores already obtained plus Q3=Rs.32Crores thus Q1+Q2+Q3=93.11 Crores !!! 93/3.23=28.79 times mindboggling !!! in short shares are moving from uninformed weaker hands to informed stronger hands and the share price is poised to cross previous top of Rs.210/-during this week to come very closer to it`s book value...

hi ks_desh! The query regarding R Com is addressed in R Com messageboard. ...

Hi ks_desh! You are welcome. I humbly hope to live up to your expectations....

Dear Bhshbac,
Hats off to you for your excellent and erudite reply. It is always a pleasure to read such wonderful inputs.
I consider RIL as a game changer. RIL is the sweetest dream for the resurgent economy of India. When others abandoned KG Basin, Mukesh took up the gauntlet and his bold gambit has paid off for the entire nation. It is felt that the actual gas,when all the wells are operationalised, would be perhaps in excess of 200 mmscd. Do you agree to this guess? And then, perhaps all the EPS estimates shall have to be revised upwards.and RIL will emerge as an economic powerhouse. Please continue to guide the boarders. You are doing a splendid job....

Dear Bhushbac,
Your posts on RIL are well studied and impressive. RIL is getting Ex-bonus next week. Can you guess the likely price then.One friend could not pedict immediate price on 27th but was of the view that by Dec 2010, the price would climb to 1800. Your comments please....

Dear PRJ,
Thank you for your nice reply. I shall wait for some more time for my exit....

Dear HMP39,
Your input is very well studied. I just want to add one additional fact. When this share is transfered to Kumarmangalam Birla, as planned, the share willget rerated and command a PE multiple of 10. On a conservative estimate, the price can touch 550...

Dear PRJ,
Your inputs are most educative to many people like me. In these uncertain times, there could be some opportunity to recast the portfolio. Good and bad all shares are fallen. Why not exit weaker stocks and enter fundamentally strong stocks with a 18 month perspective? In doing this, I need your valuable guidance. I have 3600 R Com @ 405. There appears a hazy future. If I have to exit this stock, can you suggest any stocks which can at last partially compensate the loss. After your guidance, last time, I purchased 1000 Century Enka @195. If the company reports even Rs.55 EPS, it should go beyond 300.

After the recent results, what stocks should be purchased for long term? Waiting for your kind reply....

Dear PRJ,
Thank you for your sincere guidance. I value your guidance very much....

Dear PRJ,

Thank you for your mature reply. Though Reliance ngroup companies form core of my portfolio, I am comfortable with Midcaps. I hold Shiv Vani Oil, Jindal SAW, Opto Circuits, ICSA, CAIRN iNDIA, BILCARE, FT,GE SHIPPING, MERCATOR, GREAT OFFSHORE, GMR,GVK, JP ASSO, JP HYDRO, MAN iND, Astra Micro, Voltamp, Satyam, Praj, Punj, HDIL, Patel Engg, etc.

I am flexible. Any scrip that can yield good profits without capital loss is good. Prepared to wait for long term. I have noted your passion for investments and I am your admirer. Your suggestions would be most valuable....