Posted by:  vjkumk on ( 06-Jun-08 09:50 ) | | | Price : BSE: Rs 168.50 ( 0.75 % ), NSE: Rs. 168.60 ( 0.75 % ) | The fair value of RPL at dec 2009 will be between 400 to 500 rs
Let us assume it is running to full capacity!
RPL produces 5,80,000 barrels per day
GRM =$15
Barrels per year = 211700000
Earnings == barrels per year * grm = 211700000 * 15 = $3175500000=
=12702crores rupees
EPS = earnings /outstanding shares = 12702crores rupees/450 crore
= 28.22
Assuming PE multiple of 20
Share price = PE * EPS = 20 * 28.22 =564.53
In reality the refinery may operate at 80%
Barrels per year = 464000
GRM =$15
Barrels per year = 169360000
Earnings == barrels per year * grm = 169360000 * 15 = $2540400000=
=10161crores rupees
EPS = earnings /outstanding shares = 10161crores rupees/450 crore
= 22.58
Assuming PE multiple of 20
Share price = PE * EPS = 20 * 28.22 =451rs
Cheers,
vj
|
|
Offline
Moneycontrol