Hi, I agree with you. This is one of the companies with good growth story. Should have this in the portfolio for long term benefit. I am accumulating this stock on every dip and forget about it for couple of years....

Thanks for the info, My Multibaggers. Is it worth holding? .,venkat...

Unfortunately, the promoters do not seem to be as optimistic about the company as you are. They have slowly but steadily reduced their stake from an already low 39% on 31-03-08 to 29% on 30-09-09. A further 9% out of this 29% has been pledged against loans. ...

Hi, When investor community discusses cashflow, it is mainly concerned about cash from operations which is negative in case of Bartronics.This is the reason for not having high P/E. Which i expect to change in a year or two I am a long term investor in Bartronics, otherwise i do agree with your analysis...

thank you so much 4 ur reply.. plz give other recommendation with buying level and target price with time frame.. .. :-)...

i have bought bartronics 100shrs @ 135rs and also Indian hotels 100shrs @ 76.50..on your recommendations.. plz tell me target with time frame.. thanks in advance.....

I do agree. But what foxes me is why isn`t the market giving it a high PE then? And do u have any idea on the cash flow part? That seems to be a concern as well right? Normally, markets to tend to give a high PE to such stocks & should have been outperforming the sensex/nifty,instead it is underperforming!! Anything to do with the QIp/FCCBs ?...

Exide to raise money via QIP for future growth (Source: Indiaearnings; Nov 19, 2009 at 03.43 PM)


In an exclusive interview with CNBC-TV18, AK Mukherjee, Director of Finance and CFO of Exide Industries, spoke on its qualified institutional palcement (QIP) issue.

Below is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with AK Mukherjee on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: What is the enabling provision in terms of money you hope to raise via the qualified institutional placement and how soon you want to do it?

A: In due course of time we will go ahead with this plan. We want this capital basically for the future requirement. It can be for future research and development (R&D) initiatives as well as technology development, it can be for other long-term working capital requirements, can be for acquisition, merger, etc.

Q: What is the size of the QIP?

A: It will not exceed 5 crore equity share of Rs 1 each. The pricing of it depends on the prescribed formula and on the day when we decide to raise the capital.

Q: At the current market price that would be more than Rs 550 crore. You will raise the entire amount whenever you do it?

A: It’s not yet absolutely crystallised whether we will go for one shot or on different phases we will decide in due course of time. We have got a time limit, so accordingly we will decide about the appropriate timeslot.

Q: You outlined many uses for that capital. It appears that you do not really need the capital right now, you are just raising it and then you will see how you want to deploy it.

A: It is not so. We have got different future requirements. We definitely need to deploy funds from the technology developments and R&D initiatives. In future we might require it for different investments. So different future requirements are there, of course, not fully crystallised but in due course of time all these will come and we will utilise the fund in those future requirements.

Q: What will a 5 crore equity share QIP imply though by the way of dilution for you?

A: This is a separate placement. I do not think it will be a dilution as such.

Q: But if you do a QIP there will be some dilution. If its Rs 550 crore what would imply by way of dilution?

A: It is not really so because it’s a fresh issue altogether. It can be equity shares, it can be convertible securities and I do not see any dilution in this case.

Q: How is the revenue picture looking because in the last quarter your sales were up 5%. When do you think you can get double digit kind of growth in revenues?

A: Revenues in value depends on net prices, which is primary raw material and now it is in upward trend, so value depends on that. But with respect to volume growth we have got satisfactory growth and we are continuing with it. Since the overall situation is improving we are quite hopeful of getting good growth....

India`s BPO mkt to touch $6.82 bn: IDC (Source: Financial Express, Friday November 13, 12:49 PM)



After establishing itself as a major player in the international BPO market, India is now set to shift focus on the domestic market, which is projected to grow at over 30 per cent annually.
According to a report by IT research firm IDC India, the country`s domestic BPO market, with nearly 500 players, will grow at a CAGR of 33.3 per cent to touch revenues of USD 6.82 billion by 2013, up from USD 1.62 billion in 2008.
The report said the domestic BPO industry would evolve from just running isolated processes for customers to engaging more deeply in identifying and transforming core business processes.
"Positive market indicators of an economic recovery, unbundling of mega outsourcing deals and large unaddressed white spaces such as regional language services support the current optimism," the report said.
Currently, the BFSI vertical contributes the lion`s share of 37 per cent to the domestic sector`s revenues, while telecom contributes about one-fourth to it.
Other verticals like utilities and services, energy, food and hospitality, aerospace and automotives, consumer durables and government contribute 17 per cent, while the travel segment contributes 8 per cent to the revenue.
...

Of course, your investment will rip more than triple produce! Do some research & have faith and patience on your decision if at all you take any position in Bartronics.

Take the best decision....

Promoters & Promoters Group holding in last some years:

Dec 2005 = 8068950
Sept. 2006 = 8,568,950
Sept 2007 = 7,899,729
Sept. 2008 = 9,625,659
Sept. 2009 = 8,430,718

We can conclude that Promoters & Promoters Group holding is stable in between 80 Lakhs to 85 Lakhs throught the years since listing.
...

Spanco Ltd is another call.....It`s BPO Buzz! This year is most successful year for BPO industry. 6 months EPS of Spanco is Rs.8.74 & annualized EPS is Rs.17.48.

Right now stock is trading at around 3 P/E ratio; i.e., Rs.53.60/-. This stock bounced from odd Rs.70/- levels to Rs.275/- levels in just 2 months in the year 2005 when Reliance bought 15% stake (approx.) in Spanco Ltd. Still Reliance Capital is holding 8,58,000 shares (3.06% stake) in Spanco Ltd. Further this year company will show 200% + growth in bottom line. Book value is Rs.108/-!!! Assuming just 5 P/E stock has target of Rs.90/- to Rs.110/- at any given point!!!...

Bartronics offers half price for FCCBs

Amit Tripathi / DNA



Bartronics, the Hyderabad-based provider of automatic identification & data capture (AIDC) technologies, RFID, smart card and point-of-sale solutions, is planning to buy back its foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) from the market.

The company has about $50 million in the form of FCCBs and is already in talks with some of the bond holders for the buyback.

“We are talking to some of the bond holders. But, we are not in a hurry. Considering the market condition, we are looking for a good discount offer from them. We are looking at about 50% discount and unless we get closer to that discount range, we will not buy them back,” Bartronics managing director Sudhir Rao told DNA Money.

Market sources indicated at a plan of the promoters of buying FCCBs at a discount, while selling shares in the market. “Even if promoters are buying them back while selling shares from one side, I think it makes a good business sense. They are selling shares at a better rate and buying back the FCCBs at a discount,” Rao said. The promoters have been selling about 2 lakh shares every quarter since last eight quarters.

They hold about 28% currently in the firm. The company currently has a debt of about Rs 310 crore and a cash balance of about Rs 40 crore. Meanwhile in the second quarter of FY10, the company earned revenue of Rs 137 crore of which smart cards and solutions contributed Rs 40 crore and 97 crore respectively. Bartronics earns 60% of its revenue from the domestic market while the rest comes from Singapore and the US. The firm’s order-book of Rs 650 crore, however, remained almost static since the last quarter due to dip in order execution in Singapore and the US....

Cash Flow History of Bartronics =


Cash & Cash Equivalent at the end of the year:-

2000-01 = 87,88,000
2001-02 = 79,000
2002-03 = 82,000
2003-04 = 70,000
2004-05 = 49,463
2005-06 = 35,81,69,327
2006-07 = 20,33,909
2007-08 = 5,71,11,614
2008-09 = 6,71,62,000


Varun Sir,

First of all there is no cause of concern as far as cash flows are concerned. Secondly, Bartronics is `trading company` (Hardware Parts - commodity). None of the trading company get P/E above 10 or 15 times its’ EPS. Maximum 25 times! No matter how fast it`s growing (See, HCL Info., Geodesic, etc...). Next year Bartronics will enter into service industry (Diversification) because of Aap Ke Dwar project. Additional Kiosks may be opened in Delhi. Management said it will try to execute same kind of projects in other states of India too. So it will start getting high P/E only on successful completion of 2000 Kiosks. In short; let management do the excellent work in same manner as they done in past.


Lalit Sir,

Bartronics will cross Rs.500/- mark in March 2010 per se. So hold tight. Indian Hotels Company Ltd (IHCL) has posted lackluster results in H1 FY 2010. But scheduled Commonwealth Games in Delhi, India next year & scheduled Cricket world cup series in Mumbai, India in FY 2011 will give extraordinary boost to bottom line of the IHCL. Further, 288 rooms will be operational once again in Taj Palace, Mumbai (which were closed because of destruction caused by terrorist attack) from December this year. So, as per my calculations, IHCL scrip will cross Rs.150 mark in March / April 2010....

==) Bartronics:

1] In current year revenues will be Rs.1000 crores (Base: Management guidance)

2] In FY 2010-11 revenues will be in the range of Rs.1800 crores to Rs.2250 crores (Base: Advertisement revenues for 2000 Kiosks in Delhi will be the booster for Bottom line. Because of Commonwealth Games scheduled around 3 October 2010 to 14 October 2010; going to happen on Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium, Delhi; advertisement gains will be in full swing. I am expecting Rs.25000/- charge per day per spot in Commonwealth Games season; i.e., July 2010 to November 2010. Every Kiosk has 3 spots for advertisement. The fact that hoardings have been banned in Delhi will also act as a catalyst in spurring revenues from advertising. NP margins will be very high from this segment.). Advertisement revenues will be permanent source of income for Bartronics.

3] EPS for FY 2011 will be in the range of Rs.65/- to Rs.75/- per share (Base: assumed total outstanding shares will be 4.25 crores at the end of 31st March 2011 & NP margin of 15%).


This kind of growing company will easily get price to earning multiple in the range of 15 to 20 times. So the target till March 2011 is Rs.1000/- to Rs.1500/-.





==) Indian Hotels Company Ltd.:

1] Commonwealth Games buzz (3 October 2010 to 14 October 2010; going to happen on Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium, Delhi).....

2] According to official estimates, two million foreign tourists and 3.5 million domestic tourists are likely to arrive in Delhi in 2010 as a result of the Games.....Additionally, the government has extended a five-year tax rebate to the tourism industry to create jobs and increase development.

3] Indian Hotels Company Ltd. already having around 1000 rooms capacity in New Delhi & another 1000 rooms capacity in vicinity of New Delhi (like Agra, Jaipur, Noida, etc...).....No other hotel company from listed ones has this kind of Rooms Capacity in New Delhi.

4] Currently minimum rate per room starts from Rs.7,500 (approx.) & Indian Hotels Company Ltd. has 60% occupancy rate as compare to last year. Of course it’s because of some unfortunate mishaps taken place in August last year. 288 rooms which were closed result of this terror attack will be commissioned in December this year.

5] I am expecting new highs for ‘minimum room rates’ taking place around June 2010 because of enormous foreigner tourists & domestic sports lovers visit for commonwealth games in Delhi. Revenues of Indian Hotels Company Ltd. will be around Rs.2500 crores to Rs.3000 crores in FY 2011. And NP margin will be odd 20%. EPS will be in between Rs.7/- to Rs.8.25/-. Traditionally (in last 6 years) Indian Hotels Company Ltd. Scrip has been traded at price to earnings ration of 30 to 75 times. Assuming 40 P/E (as at that time Hotel industry will witness boom phase) I have target of Rs.300/- for Indian Hotels Company Ltd....

Pranky ji,

Don`t see just P/E...

Also see Price to Book Value ratio & Net worth. These 2 parameters are more important than p/E.

2009 Book Value of NHPC is around Rs.17.68/-.....and see the pear groups Price to Book value ratios:-


1) NTPC = CMP Rs.215.60; Book Value: 69.58, Price to Book Value: 3.10
2) Tata Power = CMP Rs.1302.05; Book Value: 393.09, Price to Book Value: 3.31
3) JP Hydro = CMP Rs.82.65; Book Value: 21.90, Price to Book Value: 3.78
4) Reliance Power = CMP Rs.168.95; Book Value: 57.55, Price to Book Value: 2.94
5) KSK Energy = CMP Rs.188.95; Book Value: 56.29, Price to Book Value: 3.36



And on that base; we can clearly calculate average 3+ P/BV ratio for NHPC after which price of NHPC should be Rs.53.10/-. Even if we take 2.5 times P/BV then share price of NHPC should be Rs.44.25/-!

So it will list in the range of Rs.44.25/- to Rs.53.10/-. After 10 years it will show level of Rs.200/- to 250/- (CAGR 18% +)


Disclosure:

I have applied for NHPC in all accounts of my family members & recommended to clients too.

Take the best decision....

I am tracking since FPO time to UBI.....

See how BOI dropped on Q1 result announcement as its Bad debts increased! Loans / Advances disbursed in last 2 years are at very higher rates & defaults about to increase because of downturn in economy.

UBI will post EPS of Rs.35 (approx.) for FY 2010.

In panic situation PSU banking stocks come down to P/E of 4 to 5! And in boom they enjoy P/E of 7 to 8! I think boom period is over now for banking sector.

For me UBI is ever green counter. Let`s hope for the best....

By watching speculative movements, do not become greedy. In next 5 to 7 years Aban will remain lagard...

As per my view Nifty will come down to 3775 level in near term....