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Market Analysis - Fundamental View
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As lot of nervousness and panic yet to come into the market,the sensex may not see five digit mark again in the immediate term.... so,this may be the last chance for short term participants to see the sensex in five digit mark.......
In reply to:
Sensex may not see five digit mark again !!!!
Posted by :
Guest
yes 10000 is fully valued in ST...and few also suggest at 6000 its over valued...
so keep your shorts on coz soon you will die of margin money..lol...all shorts cover! A Major rally is coming... 
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sensex is set to fall to four digit mark and may face strong resistance at around 10000 for the near term despite the late measures taking by poicy makers.......
In reply to:
Sensex near term resistance=10000
Posted by : marketman
As there is no stop of bath sessions on street,the indian sensex may face resitance at around 10000 level,for some time....
Buyers are disappearing in stock markets due to collapsing of stock markets worldwide....
Pl note that few fundamentalists already informed that the sensex is fairly valed at 10000 levels for this fiscal.... if the liquidity/sentiment improves in the system,the sensex may stabilise at around 10000,otherwise more falls are not ruled out even from 10000....
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yes 10000 is fully valued in ST...and few also suggest at 6000 its over valued...
so keep your shorts on coz soon you will die of margin money..lol...all shorts cover! A Major rally is coming......
In reply to:
Sensex may not see five digit mark again !!!!
Posted by : marketman
Sensex is said to be fully valued at 10000.... in powerful bear markets like this, can not keep indicies at maximu value levels.... so we may not see sensex trading in five digit mark again with the present components in the near to medium term.... so, market participants will have to plan accordingly....
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There is hardly much difference in 3000 and 3300.
But what after 3000.
Ready for a roller coaster after that. When u know the bottom then u only have a rise.
I dont think one will get panic with these levels.
We have almost achieved the highest point of Over pessemism.
...
In reply to:
Fundamentals of INDIA strenthening on the back of crude downturn
Posted by :
garmagaram
BOTTOM STILL AWAY ... NIFTY 3000 IN SIGHT :-Ruthless selling continued across the globe for yet another week.
Last week we mentioned that a break below 3,650 levels on the
Nifty could drag it lower to 3,300 levels. The pace of the fall has
surprised everyone. While some think that the market has bottomed
out, we believe otherwise.
Momentum indicators of Nifty indicate that the market is yet to make
a bottom in the near term. With sustained selling by FIIs, stocks like
ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel, HDFC, HDFC Bank, L&T,
Reliance Industries and Sun Pharma are likely to lead the next and
probably the last fall.
The structural uptrend that began in May 2003 at Nifty 930 ended
with the January peak of 6,357. Since then, the Nifty has seen a
relentless fall. This has resulted in a retracement of more than 50%
gains since the start of the bull run. Analyzing the monthly chart, a
fall to 3,000 levels seems probable. This will be a 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement from the January peak. Historically, the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level has played a key role in determining the market`s
direction, as it typically signals a turnaround in a trend. History could
repeat itself here. But, then again, this time it could be different
since US is facing a once in a century crisis. Overall, at around
3,000 Nifty, the market should be close to the bottom.
Global trends remain weak
The global credit crisis has entered a very conclusive phase with
bankruptcies, nationalization and acquisition of various large financial
institutions over the last couple of months. Global central banks have
taken urgent monetary actions (cutting rates, guaranteeing deposits,
etc) to keep enough liquidity within their respective economies. We
are not sure if these initiatives would serve their purpose fully given
that apart from home loans and mortgages, credit card debts, student
loans and auto loans would further intensify the current crisis. In
Europe, we believe that the pain has just begun with Japan and
Asia likely to follow suit.]
Q2 FY09 results and economic growth indicators holds
key
The key reasons behind the sustained FII selling in the market apart
from increasing risk aversion have been concerns with respect
slowdown in economy and corporate earnings growth. On both thefronts, we are likely to face disappointment. Softening demand, high
interest rates, unpredictable forex losses and lower other income
are likely to depress earnings growth in Q2 FY09. Already, Infosys
has started the earnings season on a somber note. We expect a
near 10% growth in Sensex earnings in FY09. Recent economic
indicators too have not been encouraging to say the least. August
IIP growth at 1.3% yoy was far lower than even the pessimistic
estimate on the street. Further downgrade in FY10 GDP growth to
below 7% is likely.
We believe that weakness would continue till Nifty finds some
support around 3,000 level. However, a V-shaped recovery is
highly unlikely as the buying by insurance companies and
mutual funds will not be able to offset the heavy selling by FIIs.
gg
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Few market specialists predicting the sensex to go well below 10000 in the near term.... so,it may have to face strong resistance at around those levels in the near to medium term.......
In reply to:
Sensex near term resistance=10000
Posted by : marketman
As there is no stop of bath sessions on street,the indian sensex may face resitance at around 10000 level,for some time....
Buyers are disappearing in stock markets due to collapsing of stock markets worldwide....
Pl note that few fundamentalists already informed that the sensex is fairly valed at 10000 levels for this fiscal.... if the liquidity/sentiment improves in the system,the sensex may stabilise at around 10000,otherwise more falls are not ruled out even from 10000....
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Sensex is said to be fully valued at 10000.... in powerful bear markets like this, can not keep indicies at maximu value levels.... so we may not see sensex trading in five digit mark again with the present components in the near to medium term.... so, market participants will have to plan accordingly.......
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Bear Cartel,
If you read again you will realize i said the same thing....
In reply to:
Shankar Sharma`s bearish views
Posted by : BearCartel
I think you got it wrong, he said in this rally , begun from day b4, he doubts that it will go above 12.5K & atleast for the next 3/4 years he does not see the market making a new high...
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I think you got it wrong, he said in this rally , begun from day b4, he doubts that it will go above 12.5K & atleast for the next 3/4 years he does not see the market making a new high......
In reply to:
Shankar Sharma`s bearish views
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Shankar Sharma of first global feels for the next 3 years market is not going to go beyond 12.5k max... so why remove our money in the hopes of dividend or apprecation. We can begin investing after one year.
He was quite close in his predictions of a 4 digit sensex. Better watch his words. LOL
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Shankar Sharma of first global feels for the next 3 years market is not going to go beyond 12.5k max... so why remove our money in the hopes of dividend or apprecation. We can begin investing after one year.
He was quite close in his predictions of a 4 digit sensex. Better watch his words. LOL...
Dear Reliabull
Thanks for rating the article. Hope all our boarders do a diligent research. It will be good for self as well as for our country and economy.
Let us encourage each other
Regards
Melathethil...
In reply to:
SP Tulsian-
Posted by :
reliabull
Dear melathethil
Well said...
It is extremely important for each person who wants to invest directly into secondary market to do his/her own research.
It is a pity these analysts including damani are just as good as us despite being for years in the market as professionals.
Trudge on...
Reliabull
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Can anybody please suggest a good book on Fundamental analysis by indian author
thanks
vipul...
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Sensex seen opening at 11815 and surge towards 12455...
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By govt. pumping money how long a market would run? It is like surviving a human on doner`s blood. Market shoud produce its own blood for its good health. Fundamentally there are week points in all sectors. It is better to make these sectors healthy fundamentally. ...
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The U.S. stock market is unlikely to fall very much from the current levels and opportunities have arisen, but emerging markets are still going to grow faster, Mark Mobius, lead portfolio manager at Templeton and an emerging markets specialist, told CNBC.
"There will certainly be a lot of retrenchment in the real economy, but the stock market tends to look ahead," Mobius told "Squawk Box."
"You will probably see a few more declines but we`re beginning to see the bottom of this and so the opportunities are quite interesting, quite attractive," he added.
However, emerging markets have a growth rate four-to-five times bigger than that of developed ones, and they have been dragged down by what happened in the U.S. and Europe, Mobius explained, adding: "frontier markets are very cheap, emerging markets are very cheap."
The situation has reversed compared to the economic crisis of 10 years ago, when Asian countries were the debtors and Western economies had the cash, he said.
"I think the markets will rejuvenate much faster than many people realize," Mobius said.
source: CNBC...
Dear Radhika,
What is your view about market at this point of time.Is this a shorting opportunity or go long with the nifty.Please advise....
In reply to:
Baharon ne mera chaman loot kar
Posted by : radhika_nandlal
Greedyone,
Our PM called the RBI governor back home from the US.. LOL LOL ... the IIP numbers are not good there is somethign fishy about summoniing the RBI governor.. take care.. we might fall further.
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