Market Outlook - Short Term

Has your confidence in equities been shattered?

Posted by : MMB Messenger

Dear Boarders,Do let us know your views and opinions on the poll.-MMB Messenger

SENSEX to rally by 2400 pts in 7 days

Posted by : Kalidas

Paulson’s plan thought faulty has scared the hell out of all Senators. President Bush has invited Obama and McCain to apprise them of the plan and seeking their approval so that the plan is not derailed after election.

Once Obama and McCain agree, there is little chance that $700 billion package may not be passed. It will be passed reluctantly and some useless matters like Executive pay are discussed. What is $10 million dollars against $700 billions?

There was a game plan (or conspiracy whatever you call) under which –
- Paulson, Bernanke and Cox (SEC) got together
- Paulson wanted to pass the bill before weekend or in any case before Sep end (reason later)
- Cox was asked to impose ban on short selling of financial shares (799 shares) until 2 Oct
- Bernanke was to spread scare that if the plan is not passed, there would be catastrophe, jobs will be lost, GDP to go down, Credit crisis to become more acute.

Why passage before weekend?
Q3 will end on 30 September after which Q3 result will start arriving on or after 15 October. If the plan is passed before September, Paulson will buy all bad assets from Goldman and others so that result looks good. The current prices of illiquid debt have risen from 20 cents to 98 cents.

Paulson has also proposed that he would buy the bad assets at discount to face value, that is, he will pay $65 against $100 face value (present market value 98 cents) to boost the confidence. This will help the bank to book even profit to reverse the excess provisions.

He ensured that SEC imposes the ban on short selling and to remain in force until the bill is passed which was expected before Sep end. Since the short selling ban ends on 2 October, it is presumed by him that successful passage of bill may cause fierce rally in financial shares due to short covering. Hedge funds and shorters will be dead in the heat.

Once the Obama and McCain show the approval, other Democrats and Republican will not bother to object. After President Bush speech today, there is more than 70% possibility that the bill may be passed before Sunday.

This will cause the following:
1. Dow may rise by 1200 points in 2 or 3 days due to fierce rally in Index related financial shares
2. Gold may plummeted by 5% to 10%
3. Silver may plummet by 20%
4. Oil may drop by 10% to 15%
5. Commodities may also drop due to US$ rally
6. Euro will fall most- Yen least. Rupee will slide over 3%
7. World markets may rise. SENSEX may gain by 2400 points in less than 3 days. All index heavy weight may gain significantly.
8. This scenario is possible only if the bill is passed. For any reason the bill is delayed, almost everything will work in reverse gear. Since everyone is losing money and want the market to go higher, they will want to know so called good news (which is sugar coated saccharine) to fuel the rally.

I may be buying today some scraps just for short term. I will throw away in possible next week rally. The investors who have large short position should begin to unwind or take 20% opposite position by buying out of money calls as hedge. I would personally liquidate short position by 80% now, retaining just 20% against which I would buy out of money calls (options to limit the risk). Do not think that I am bullish on the market. This is sugar coated market for brave hearts. This is purely trading scenario – Investment climate is still worsening.

Kalidas, Hong Kong
Ref: 09-091-R 25/9/2008

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : amarawargaonkar

I would like to be called chicken little but definately not a lamb.
So as to be sacrificed at the altars of the fiis.
gud luk to you too.

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : amarawargaonkar

Dear bullsheet,
what do you think will happen on monday?
I am not good at trading hence i never do i.
My intuition is the futures of dow would be watched closely if there is any sign of the dow futures going up. The shorts in our markets will be covered big time.
After that we all know the fiis will continue to sell.
We will form an intermediate bottom which will be broken in the next 10 to 12 months and then the period of recovery will begin.
Regards,
amarawargaonkar

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Cool amarawargaonkar,

You sounds like a Chicken Little to me... You would be buying in December or you `may` ??

Gud luk & happy investing!

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : amarawargaonkar

Dear bullsheet,
As you know i am a guy who has less bravado. I may not buy.
One more thing i did not promise of buying any time now. I would be buying in december and that is what i have written on my home page.
Regards,
Amarawargaonkar

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear amarawargaonkar,

I hope you are keeping your PROMISE of BUYing when Nifty will be in that 3 stages of 3000-3200, 3200-3400 and 3400-3600. :) I hope you are over with your 66% BUYing :)

I wish you gud luk with the strategy for beating all those BS experts :)

Wait and watch the GAME to unfolds for next 3 weeks / 3 months to understand what I mean! :)

Gud luk & happy investing!

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear amarawargaonkar,

I hope you are keeping your PROMISE of BUYing when Nifty will be in that 3 stages of 3000-3200, 3200-3400 and 3400-3600. :) I hope you are over with your 66% BUYing :)

I wish you gud luk with the strategy for beating all those BS experts :)

Wait and watch the GAME to unfolds for next 3 weeks / 3 months to understand what I mean! :)

Gud luk & happy investing!

SENSEX to rally by 2400 pts in 7 days

Posted by : Observr

Now the third group formed(on this forum) on the anvil of multiple ids by one person viz.:

First: J
Second: K
And now third another K

Keep it up

- Keen Observer

Alround panic ahead !!!!

Posted by : Bull 2008

Dear marketman

This poison seems to have spead way beyond we thought. This may lead the systemaic faliure of not the bank but also weak economic`s. It would be a bullish idea if it settles.
Regards

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : amarawargaonkar

Dear Bullsheet,
You started to buy when the nifty hit 3800 with a SL as told by you, the stoploss must have got triggered.
Now you are saying to buy when big players buy.
Big players who? The Fiis or the local operators?
I dont get what you are trying to tell.
No body starts a dirty game the fiis house is on fire and they are dousing it with whatever water they can get and hence this sell off.
Dont sensationalise the big operators some of them have lost real hard.
Nobody and i mean nobody can control the market not even the american government else we would never have seen this sell off.
Regards.
amarawargaonkar.

SENSEX to rally by 2400 pts in 7 days

Posted by : syagnik

sugarbabe is still looking for sugardaddy.. glad you rem .. how its going..

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : BullSheetRules

Dear d_k,

As you know, I PLAY as per the PLAYers PLAYing the GAME!

Here are some BS views;

It is good to see that this time you have done some HOMEWORK before going for FRESH investments! As mentioned before that RULES of GAME for LT Investors are DIFFERENT!

For those Genuine LT investors, one RULE says that while seeking such Margin of Safety, such Genuine LT investors should BUY within 10% of the bottom and get out within 10% of the top, then there is 80% of the MOVE available for making MONEY! Those BOTTOM and TOP are DECIDED by those BIG PLAYers. This is a safe strategy for those Genuine LT investors who do NOT wish to catch absolute bottom and wish to have that peace of mind while making MONEY in this GAME!
Name of the GAME is to BUY when those BIG PLAYers start their BUYing!

This is also a key reason that I have not started my SHOPPing to build those LT investments as those BIG PLAYers have not started their BUYing activities yet and those BIG PLAYers continue with MAD SELLing.

Currently, only FUNDAMENTAL problem for me now is to identify which industries will lead and prosper once the market start for next bull run! For example: Real estate stocks are DEAD now for all practical reasons from LT investments point of view.

Note: Many BIG PLAYers are also facing the same dilemma of extent of this DIRTY GAME and start going for BUYing mode at Dirt Cheap prices.

Anyway, coming back to your points, let me put different BS points

1. As per current BEARish corrections, Point 5 can lie anywhere between 3690 and 2193.

2. If those BIG PLAYers do not take Nifty above 3700 / 4100 in ST, then expect further DOWNSIDE in this corrections

3. If those BIG PLAYers take Nifty below 2600 or Sensex below 8800, then REAL DEEP BEAR Corrections sets in Indian market for a few months! Otherwise, we can expect revival of BULLish undertones.

For time being, we can assume 8800 / 2600 as LONG TERM Support to start that LT investment in staggered manner!

Just as info: Only if Nifty goes below 2600 or Sensex goes below 8800, then long time correction will set in place for any new BULL run. Let us hope we do not see the extent of that much Dirty Game!

4. In my BS view, This DIRTY GAME was started by those BIG PLAYers on Sep 29 when Nifty went below 3900!

Gud luk & happy investing!

WILL NIFTY HIT 3600 & SENSEX TOUCH 12000

Posted by : d_k

Dear BSR, Lovemeal and all,
Here are some nifty figures. Let us see what to make of these. Please post your views :
Jan 91 - Nifty about 306 touched a peak about 1280 in April 92.
Touched bottom about 605 in april 93.
Peak of about 1380 in sept 94 then back to 830 in Jan 96.
A lower top of 1200 in June 96 and back to 800 in Dec 96.
Sideways trading till Dec 98 in the range 800 - 1300.

A new top of 1750 in Feb 2000 followed by a bottom of about 850 in Sept 01.

Another year of sideways trading till April 03 in the range 850 - 1200.

Then comes the great bull run till Jan 2008 when nifty touched about 4300.

Now I request all of you to please give your opinion about what to expect next.

-----
To me it looks as if for at least two more years there is not going to be any bull market.
Sometime around 2011 (?) nifty may find its final bottom (?)at about 2000(?).

regards

deepak

PS: I hereby declare that I am not a technical analyst nor an expert.
All above nifty figures can be seen fron nse website.