I think what we heard yesterday QIP was not about welguj it is about welspun india...

Why should we doubt at all? Though SRF is out of F & O counter, there are other modus operandis like circular trading etc. to keep the share price under check.At the current price of CER, ie, Eu.12.5 SRF can generate post tax revenue of around Rs.200 Crores from 3.8Million CERs annually. Where as SRF has concluded many forward contracts for CERs, the rate will be attractive considering that the contracts could be at the sellers risk. Reveue from 3.8 M CERs at the current rate of Eu. 12.5 will generate an annualised EPS of around Rs.33 ( irrespective of the present fluidity of accounting of stock of CERs held) in addition to a conservative minimum EPS of Rs. 7 from core business ( EPS before generation of CER income was Rs.9.31), will generate an annualised EPS of Rs.40. Present sectoral PE being 9, reasonable value could be around Rs.360 which might improve with Higher EPS and higher PE value. Share price movement of SRF, especially after April, 2006 was without any rationale. The journey was like a snail climbing a wall, two steps forward, then 3 steps backward. Few explained that the Core business is not doing well, some others explained that the euphoria of carbon credit has gone and the CER income is only temporary. Be that it may; is an annual income of Rs.200 Cr ( actual figure could be much higher ) and Rs.2000 for a 10 yrs. period from CERs has no value or significance as it is stamped as non core business or temporary income? I don`t think no one will disagree with me when I say that Rs.2000 is a very huge amount by any standards and a windfall profit with out doing any additional effort or any substantial or major investment which could be utilized for modernisation of existing plants, expansion, setting up of new ventures, new acquisitions etc. Additional investment was only around Rs.12 Cr. for the construction of the incerination plant. HFC-23 which is incinerated is a by-product from the manufacture HCFC-22. Incerination expenses include expenses for power, fuel etc. In spite of all these, why SRF continues to be a laggard from April, 2006 even during the boom time. When we examine the reasons for this share not catching up with its reasonable valuations,it is not out of place to anlyse the reasons for the market to allow higher value for a share. Among other reasons, they include 1. Consistency in performance of the Co. 2. Transparency in all areas of operation of the Co. 3. A good communication system with the public. 4. A competant Manangement. 5. Confidence of the ivestors in the Management/Promoters 5. Sharing of profits with the investors. 6. Visibility of future earnings. ( Co. has not made any presentation reg. their future projects and their profitability to enable the leading Analysts to cover the stock ) I feel that SRF is not upto the standard in r/o points 2,3,5&6. A share will sttract higher PE value only when the expetations of futre earnings are high for which necessary information should be made available to the market by the Manangement. Management should come out with their concrete plans and the effects on profitablity and not in peace meal thru occassional press reports. Further the past track record of the Promoters in the field of corporate governance may be looming large over the investors. Finally, imagine - replace ...

it is creating opportunity to buy at lower level,no need to worry,it seems that all the weaker investor of india are in srf counter...

hi CoolBull, your note of caution is worth consideration. ......

The current news on ethanol is reproduced below for information and coments:- CCEA asks oil ministry to ensure 5% ethanol blending by OMCs Press Trust of India / New Delhi November 12, 2009, 16:19 IST The government today asked the Petroleum Ministry to ensure that oil companies compulsorily sell petrol doped with 5 per cent ethanol. In November 2006, the government had mandated that ethanol should be blended in a 5 per cent ratio with petrol to be sold throughout India except in areas like North Eastern states and Jammu and Kashmir Subsequently, it stipulated that the amount of ethanol in petrol may be optionally ramped up to 10 per cent from October 2007 and made compulsory with effect from October 2008. But oil marketing companies (OMCs) -- Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum --could not even implement the 5 per cent blend due to shortage of ethanol. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) today made it mandatory for OMCs to sell five per cent blended petrol. "The CCEA reiterated an earlier decision that there shall be a mandatory blending of five per cent of ethanol. It has instructed the Petroleum Ministry to ensure that all OMCs implement the decision," Home Minister P Chidambaram told reporters here after a meeting of the CCEA. He said in order to ensure that there is no supply dislocation of ethanol, a small group of officials representing the ministries of Food and Consumer Affairs; Renewable Energy and Petroleum and Natural Gas will be constituted. ...

Yes. You are very much right. The future of this company will be decided by Feb 2010. Either they should declare bonus or dividend. If not, we need to think of continuing to hold this scrip or not. ...

CB, if you are making something for one Rupee and someone is paying you two to just burn it, would you like to talk about it ? The silence on CER`s should be understood, not talked about. Anyway, this bonanza ends in 2014. ...

I understand Govt. has decided to impose anti dumping duty on NTC imported from Belarus...

Too frequent equity dilutions. It is not likely to be a multibagger, from hereon....

This time`s up move is likely to be strong and sustainable as more and more countries are working towards emission caps. As Gujarat Fluoro`s investments are in renewable energy, it is likely to be tremondously benefitted by any such pacts incentivising clean technology. ...

Yesterday I read that Australia is about to pass a bill for emission caps, which is likely to include some kind of Carbon trading platform. Whether this is likely to benefit SRF? Request boarders to share their views.-Thanks...

Dividend received. ...

It is on my buy list,whether take over or not. The Bank has good quality assets. NPA ratio is less than 0.5%. The growth has been impressive. Fully computerised. Dividend yield of around 4%.With such strengths it is quoting at P/E of just 6. It deserves P/E of atleast 10 to 12, looking to its growth potential....

Agree. But it also has the problem of some body trying to pin down its prices. Hence, till the purpose of manipulators is served, the price may remain subdued. ...

The risk is only in the short term. Over Medium Term to Long Term, this correction is a great buying opportunity. With RBI tightening norms for Loan Loss provisioning, the Banks would be forced to ensure top grade asset quality. With this great move by RBI depositors and long term investors in Banking sector in India can have more faith. I hope this measure will boost P/Es of Indian Banks. ...

I am not too sure the stock will touch Rs.480/- on Monday itself. But it is a potential 10+ bagger in next two to three years or may be earlier. I was analysing consolidated results. Even in such a depressed scenario sales are Rs.145686 crores.once steel prices firm up across the globe and Corus production goes up the turnover can reach 200000 crores. Firm prices mean, profit margin can be 15% on a conservative basis. That means profit figures of Rs.30000 crores. At this profit EPS would be Rs.400 per share. P/E of 10 at this price gives the share price of Rs.4000/-. Hence with such a great potential, good dividend yield and Tata management, at current price, it is a risk free buy....

It appears IDBI is getting its act together. The Bank has very good technical infrastructure, thanks to erstwhile pvt. sector Bank and project appraisal expertise, thanks to erstwhile FI avatar.Two weaknesses were low NIM and absence of professional risk management. It appears Mr. Yogesh Agrwal has been able to address these two weaknesses too. In that case rerating appears to be happening. If that is happening there is possibility of earnings expansion and PE expansion and this is a potential multibagger....

Moral of the story: Never buy a share at fancy valuations and just because lot of brokerages recommend. The brokerages derive their recommendations based on management`s views. The business is quite different ball game. Whenever, there is high margin in any business competition will surface and margins will normalise and hence valuation of shares will also normalise. Only traders can make money from shares with high valuations and very rarely investors. ...