Dear hindlevernet:
Why should the Nifty enter into the bull run once it hits 3500-3600?
Upto now the bears were scared to shortsell below 3800.
Buy now the scenerio has changed and the 3800-4150 trading zone has declined to 3700-4050.
The Nifty , therfore, takes support at 3700 goes to 4150 and retracts.
Next scenerio, very likely, 3600-3800 and we shall be stuck there for quite a while.
Ofcourse compared to 3500-3600 you can say 3600-3800 is relatively more bullish.
Some rallies in the bear downturn are likely but on a day or two basis again the rally will fizzle out to make the Nifty go southwards.
Too bad but true.
j.
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Dear Udyan:
There is a belief that FNO traders are terribly afraid to short-sell below 3800.
So is that going to be an important factor ? However, the Oct.Nifty is dependant on the SPOT Nifty.Heavy delivery-based cash selling will pull the SPOT further down.So will the premiums in the Oct. Nifty reach higher levels ?
j.

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Dear Friends:
The Oct. Nifty which closed on Fri, the 26th. below 4000 failed to go up today , the 29th., as buyers are more pessimistic than hoped. They still do not see the bottom as reached. So buying was not seen prudent at today's levels. Only 12 shares of the NIFTY are at their 52Week low. RCOM is the only among the 10 heavyweights which has reached a 52W low. So if there is still a down side left for these shares, the NIFTY is bound to go further down.
Spot Nifty at a low of 3777 is below the strong support of 3800. The rise of the Oct. Niftyat 15.53 Hrs. today from 3808 to 3888 is a false signal.
The U.S bailout pakage and The Indo-US nuclear agreement are emphasised too much. Both will have no major effect within the next few weeks.Tomorrow the 30th.may see some continued exuberance on their account. But the Oct. Nifty will not see 3900.
Possibly the downtrend will agin be strong and in one direction on FRi, the 3rd. when the Oct Nifty may visit 3600.
Remember that the Nifty May2006 was2819 and most world indice have bottomed to their May 2006 level.
Take Care!!!
.
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Dear pranky:
I thought you had quit MMB. Ofcourse, I myself, was not visiting MMB for quite a while.
The DOW may fall. But what is the source of your extraordinary moneyflows into the market.
Equity will have to compete with debt for money as interst rates rise and investors have a residue of fear for equity.
There is only so much land and so much oil and both are getting more and more used up. So their prices will keep rising. (Not like gold which is not used).
Ofcourse the prices of fundamentally strong companies will go up. But to get their 52Week highs we shall have to wait for another two years.
So money today in bank one year FD gives interest and no downside risk.
When the prices start rising then liqudate FDs and buy shares . (May be in Q3-2009).
If you want to still try your luck as of today then forget capital gains for a while and see my thread INTRADAY NIFTY-OCT. in Market View -Market Strategy-Day Trading where profits/losses are two way both up and down
Cheers!!!
j.




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Dear Friends:
Yesterday, the 26th., saw all ten heavyweights of the NIFTY close lower than the previous day, the 25th. These ten consitute 52% of the NIFTY by weight.
However, all ten, and the majority of the Nifty sahres are still above their 52Week Low (mostly above 10% or so). So there is still a
probable downside of say 5%. Which would mean a probable fall in the
Nifty by 5% i.e. about 200 points.
So if the Nifty Spot goes to 3800, we can expect the Oct Nifty also
just above 3800.
Monday , the 29th. may see some upside on buyers hoping the bottom has reached and the prices are good. However within the week 3800 is the likely resting place for the Nifty.
Take care!!!
j....

Dear Friends:
Yesterday , the 25th. was settlement day for the Sept. series and it was bearish.
The Oct. series has closed yeterday, the 25th., at a premium (4159-4111=48).
This should indicate an optimistic immediate future.
However, in India,in view, of low biz confidence, indefinite delay in the signing of the U.S-India nuclear agreement,indifferent attitude towards two big rights issues, namely Hindalco and Telco and growing trade union clout, the scene is hardly rosy.
Worldwide we only hear of bank failures in the U.S.
So there will be selling as prices of NIFTY shares will not rise. As the SPOT Nifty declines the premium of 48 will vanish or be marginal.
Hence we cannot expect the Oct Nifty to open much above 4110.
The direction of the Oct Nifty is southwards and it is more likely to touch 4000 rather than 4200.
Take Care!!!
j.
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Dear Friends:
Yesterday the 24th. the Sept Nifty did not puncture 4100 as its LOW was at 4143. Its upside upto 4229 was a sign that the BULLS are trying to close today, the last Sept. day, above 4200.However the SPOT Nifty went to 4116 indicating lower prices for the 50 shares of the NIFTY for delivery/cash. The three top heavyweights Reliance, ONGC and Bhartiartl all closed higher and were the main factor to pull up the INDEX.
Today the 25th. will see some profit-taking (selling) of the NIFTY shares and the SPOT Nifty will, therefore, see some softness. If the SPOT Nifty opens below 4120, we can expect that the Sept. Nifty will close below 4200. If the SPOT Nifty punctures 4100, the Sept Nifty will also go near somewhere at 4100 or less.
Take Care !!!
j....

Dear roameri, 3450--3600 range is very support zone for Nifty. If it is held then new bull market will start or at least market may not fall further. However if level of 3450 is broken convincinly, then 3000 looks inevitable. The question is Will it touch 3000 or not. One of the indicators will be Dow Jones movement. If it break the support of 10200, then it may fall down to 9600/7800 level. Acid test is, if Dow closes below 10,000 even for one day, 3000 for Nifty is almost sure. If that happens, next peak of Bull phase may be formed in the region of previous high of 6350. If Nifty bounces back from 3450-3550 range, then Peak of 7300+ is possible. No definite time horizon can be given for the formation of peak. SURESH MITTAL...

"Too bad but true"as seen by Dr Stephen A Rinehart in his latest Flash Economic Alert. Comment: This is an economic update only - please delete if no interest but you should be very aware that your financial system is in grave danger of failing and is undergoing massive changes affecting all our lives. All,I have intended to write at length about the financial system being insolvent and tonight the Federal Reserve System has to pull out all stops to prevent a global meltdown. Events are happening so fast that I will comment only on some key points and try to get out more detail later as well as our regular newsletter but economic events happening are truly "a once in a lifetime event": 1. You are currently witnessing a massive failure of a [corrupt at the top levels] worldwide banking system (along with massive Government corruption thru lobbyist pay-offs) with its worthless paper money and massive debts. (Congress and banking lobbyists and crony capitalism on Wall Street have given all those with credit card debt a 25% to 35% interest rate and now our banking system is being destroyed). I said many institutions/banks will go bankrupt and fail quickly and now it is all coming true. The US Fed Reserve are having to do trillion dollar bailouts (the taxpayer will get the bill later in massive inflation and eventually hyperinflation) almost every night at this point - it is totally out of control and wild. Our economy is now wrecked and our banking system in chaos and if the fed cannot stop the carnage this week I seriously doubt we are going to have any kind of a financial (credit lending) system left in two weeks.They have no idea what they are going to do long-term except print more worthless paper. This is why I have been preaching to the choir to buy gold and silver for the past three years. (2) Greenspan on cue dropped the interest rates to 1% (historic low) to fuel the biggest housing price worldwide in the mankind``s history, (3 Chinese own over $500 billion and they want their money back, Russians, Europe and South America too, (4) force the entire US (regional) banking system (under threat of no access to Fed money) to give no money down, no documentation loans, and 125% equity (second ) loans. After Bear Stearns collapsed (Fed/White House tried to hide it), Wall Street banks was left with trillions of worthless mortgage paper (and worthless insurance derivatives) and nobody was left in the world to buy this toxic poison. The wall Street Banks panicked and then turned on each other (shorting each other``s stocks and lying about it). It has now erupted into all outfinancial warfare to crash a company and buy the real assets for pennies. However, thousands of unregulated hedge funds all over the world saw the chance of a lifetime to make a killing by destroying the US Financial System (as well as European banks) by just shorting millions of shares of stocks (which they did not own) and Congress and the SEC has done nothing to stop it. Brokerages all over the world (including Russia) must have now joined into the game. Now expect more bailouts and massive coming inflation and more brokerage failures, expect massive cuts in local and state budgets and cuts in services, expect massive coming cuts in Social Security (hidden as inflation) and Medicare,expect massive budget cuts and possible civil unrest, expect blockade of Iran leading to a conflict (including Russia in backroom with Iran), expect resource conflicts over clean water and food, expect wild and strange weather patterns to continue and expect most near-term Government solutions to continue to fail, expect a rise in inventors to find new solutions and expect massive increase in nuclear power plants in China. To protect your money - cash and gold are Aces in a deflationary Depression . The current crisis is the worse since the Great Depression. Many articles can be found on dollarcollapsedotcom Peace, Stephen ...

Hi roameri, I support your views. I am also playing to get in at 3600 - 3650 and get out at 3900. Nobody will stay or buy above 3900 and the range keeps going down and down. For nifty to go up, DOW needs to reverse somewhere. Until then India growth story, next bull run etc is BS :-)) ...

Dear Friends: The Oct. Nifty which closed on Fri, the 26th. below 4000 failed to go up today , the 29th., as buyers are more pessimistic than hoped. They still do not see the bottom as reached. So buying was not seen prudent at today's levels. Only 12 shares of the NIFTY are at their 52Week low. RCOM is the only among the 10 heavyweights which has reached a 52W low. So if there is still a down side left for these shares, the NIFTY is bound to go further down. Spot Nifty at a low of 3777 is below the strong support of 3800. The rise of the Oct. Niftyat 15.53 Hrs. today from 3808 to 3888 is a false signal. The U.S bailout pakage and The Indo-US nuclear agreement are emphasised too much. Both will have no major effect within the next few weeks.Tomorrow the 30th.may see some continued exuberance on their account. But the Oct. Nifty will not see 3900. Possibly the downtrend will agin be strong and in one direction on FRi, the 3rd. when the Oct Nifty may visit 3600. Remember that the Nifty May2006 was2819 and most world indice have bottomed to their May 2006 level. Take Care!!! . ...

Dear Friends: Yesterday, the 26th., saw all ten heavyweights of the NIFTY close lower than the previous day, the 25th. These ten consitute 52% of the NIFTY by weight. However, all ten, and the majority of the Nifty sahres are still above their 52Week Low (mostly above 10% or so). So there is still a probable downside of say 5%. Which would mean a probable fall in the Nifty by 5% i.e. about 200 points. So if the Nifty Spot goes to 3800, we can expect the Oct Nifty also just above 3800. Monday , the 29th. may see some upside on buyers hoping the bottom has reached and the prices are good. However within the week 3800 is the likely resting place for the Nifty. Take care!!! j....

Dear Friends: Yesterday the 24th. the Sept Nifty did not puncture 4100 as its LOW was at 4143. Its upside upto 4229 was a sign that the BULLS are trying to close today, the last Sept. day, above 4200.However the SPOT Nifty went to 4116 indicating lower prices for the 50 shares of the NIFTY for delivery/cash. The three top heavyweights Reliance, ONGC and Bhartiartl all closed higher and were the main factor to pull up the INDEX. Today the 25th. will see some profit-taking (selling) of the NIFTY shares and the SPOT Nifty will, therefore, see some softness. If the SPOT Nifty opens below 4120, we can expect that the Sept. Nifty will close below 4200. If the SPOT Nifty punctures 4100, the Sept Nifty will also go near somewhere at 4100 or less. Take Care !!! j....

Dear Friends: Today the 23rd. we opened at 4158 vis-a-vis the close of 4236 of the 22nd. The 4100 level has a psychological dimension. So sentmental BULLS would like to support it. But the seasoned operators have no sentiments. They change from BULL to BEAR as the market rolls. If the 4100 level is punctured the Sept FUTIDX will go all the way to 4079 and after that support it will go to 3992. However there will be strong support at 4070-4079. A Rollover to Oct. is unadvisable as there is a daily uncertainty and we may see a strong Nifty on Fri the 26th. as the FIIs will try to create a bouyant atmosphere and allure retail buyers as they have to sell their holdings. Take Care!!! ...