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Saturday - Nov 21, 2009
This is perfect for blindly following RJ or SS
Today`s Investing Mantra
"The future is never clear, and you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty is the friend of the buyer of long-term values."
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TO BHAVANI,
Thanks for the message. It is a good one.
Pls feel free to add in your views as and when you can.
My aim was to give inspiration. NOVICE`s msg has given me inspiration to add in more abt investments. But I would request all boarders to add their views, especially seniors such as you.
Thanks...
you have an optimistic view of the market......
stocktobuy-Indian equities are expected to move higher over the year!!Currently the downside risks are limited!!RBI could hike up the cash reserve ratio (CRR)!! ...
MUMBAI: Indian equities are expected to move higher over the next 12 months, as surprises in companies’ growth could trigger earnings upgrades, said Why realty is good investment
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HSBC. But the bank has an ‘underweight’ rating on India, because it expects gains here to lag other countries.
“Growth expectations remain low and we see a significant room for upgrades to EPS forecasts. Analysts have yet to factor in an economic recovery, and EPS upgrades will be the major factor which will provide support to equities,” said Vivek Ranjan Misra and Garry O Evans, strategists at HSBC, in a recent report.
Though the valuation of the benchmark Sensex at 17 times next year’s earnings indicates limited room for upsides, earnings growth upgrades over the next 2-3 quarters will provide support to the market, the bank said. HSBC’s target for the Sensex is 18,000 and for the Nifty is 5,350 by the end of 2010.
On Thursday, the Sensex closed at 16,785.65 and the Nifty ended at 4989. Both indices have risen close to 94% since March 9, 2009.
A wider section of the market has been concerned over the existing value of Indian shares, terming it as ‘expensive’. Fund managers said Indian equities stand the risk of limited upsides hereon and a sharper fall than other emerging markets in the event of a correction.
HSBC sees the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy tightening, led by stronger economic and earnings growth, as a key cause of concern for investors.
“While this (tighter monetary policy) may cause equity markets to pause, the negatives from rate tightening should be outweighed by the upside to the stock market from positive revisions to growth expectations,” the bank’s strategists said. “The clash between the two forces — rising growth expectations and withdrawal of monetary easing is likely to cause volatility,” they said.
HSBC expects RBI to hike the cash reserve ratio (CRR) — the minimum amount banks need to hold with the central bank in cash — by 200 basis points, or 2%, and policy rates by 125 basis points, or 1.25%, in 2010. But the rate hikes are unlikely to impact growth in 2010-11, the bank said.
“Tightening will be the result of a pick-up in growth. So, this won’t be a disaster for equities. However, evidence suggests the first move in a tightening cycle causes the market to pause,” the strategists said.
HSBC, however, thinks downside risks are limited, because “upside surprises to growth and low interest rates in the US create an environment supportive of EM assets”. It expects a “buy on dips” strategy is likely to prevail. The bank has ‘overweight’ ratings on private sector banks, industrials, consumer staples and IT, and ‘underweight’ ratings on materials and healthcare.
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Wealth has to be created first, only then does the question of it`s distribution arise. The sapling has to be carefully nurtured, nourished and generally well cared for. A steady balance between neglecting it to the point of dormancy on the one hand and nagging to the point of creating a hen-pecked entity needs to be established. Of course, regular weeding out of diseased branches is a part of the LT game.
Like Warren Buffet said last week, cargoes can be shipped and shipments can go by car, but over a couple of decades the railroad is going to be money spinner far in excess of truck based surface transport. Can we think of time scales like this?
SARVAM KRISHNAARPANAM
Bhavani...
Bhavani,
ekdam barobar uttar aahe. zakkas!
cent percent descrition of LT investor.
5 * from my side.
:-)...
good valuable info.. thanks to your message and effort...
Hi Bhavani,
You are very right. there is a saying in hindi, sabar ka phal meetha lagta hai..
it is worth waiting when returns are sweet and more
regards...
Hansal Sir:
Pardon me for butting in uninvited. In my humble view a long term investment needs certain well defined objectives with realistic targets. It also needs clearly understood criteria for emergency exits. The environment is much like a long distance international flight where you don`t keeping looking out the window every now and then to see if you have reached the destination. In short, you need a mental attitude of calmness and serenity, yet have the agility to jump off with a parachute when absolutel;y essential. This implies no cats on hot tin roofs.
SARVAM KRISHNAARPANAM
Bhavani...
stocktobuy-The list of 40 richest people is led by Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani and there are other like Lakshmi Mittal,Adi Godrej,Gautam Adani,Chandru Raheja,Niranjan Hiranandani,etc etc!!
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NEW DELHI: Reliance Industries may be the biggest corporate brand in India, but Bharti Airtel is the strongest. The country’s largest mobile
operator is the only corporate brand to be awarded the AAA rating, or “extremely strong”, in Brand Finance’s Brand Power Rating (BPR).
BPR reflects a brand’s strength in the marketplace compared to its competitors and how effectively a company converts this into business results, while brand value is the proportion of a company’s overall value directly attributable to the use of its trademark.
Airtel has managed to improve its brand strength in spite of increasing competition at the marketplace, from AA+.
Two other telecom operators in the Top 50 list, Reliance Communications and Idea Cellular, both saw their brand strength slip from A+ last year to A- and BBB-, respectively.
A much more dramatic fall in terms of brand strength was that of Jet Airways. With the aviation industry, particularly the full service carriers, going through serious turbulence, Jet saw its brand rating descent from a chart-topping AAA- last year to a ground-level BBB.
While India did well to keep the economy growing even as the world went through its worst economic recession since the 1930s, the economic turmoil did dent some big brands including real estate major DLF, top private sector bank ICICI Bank and software firm HCL Technologies.
Most companies in the auto sector, which led the country’s drive out of the slowdown, improved their rating. India’s most valuable (company) brand, RIL, too managed to improve its brand rating to AA+ from AA-.
Leading carmaker Maruti Suzuki scored AAA-, up from AA-, SUV maker Mahindra & Mahindra rose to AA from AA- and two-wheeler leader Hero Honda got AA+ compared to A+ last year.
Interestingly, IT industry majors TCS, Infosys Technology and Wipro managed to retain their brand ratings.
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TO DM,
No FnO strategy in this thread. Only pure delivery based investment.
Pls add your comments to whenever you have time....
Dear Hansal,
Good step in right direction,and make this thread strictly for delivery based trading,so newbees can also benefit,and do not lose heavily by doing FnO
regards
DM...
Dear hansal77,
To determine the intrinsic value of a business and pay a fair or bargain price is the be-all and end-all investment mantra. There are two points- one, to determine the intrinsic value of business and the other, to pay a fair price. The fair price does not carry so much importance as it is with the intrinsic value of the business. It is too tough to understand the meaning of business value. How many factors are there that actively interfare in running of a business? Innumerable! And all those factors are to some extent, responsible for determining intrinsic value of a business. So it is quite difficult for most of the investors who are not technically well conversed of all those active factors, rather it is esier for them to understant the growth prospect of a company. Easy it is to select a company by simply valuing its growth prospect.
Regards...
