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next target 126
Posted by :
divakarank
I do agree with you. Dabur is such nice stock which is affected only to the minimum even in volatile conditions of the market. I have been following it for quite sometime and now finds its consolidating its position for an upward leap. 114-116 is the great level for buying. In all modesty, in the days to come, it may scale upto 145. For this target one has to wait for quite sometime because even in rallies, it appreciates only reasonably. It is an excellent scrip with low-risk and reasonable returns.
Best Wishes!...
next target 126
Posted by :
spiker
Dabur looks attractive at this point and one can keep 126 as the next exit point. sales and net profit are good for the company at this point which can take it to much higher than 126 on a rally. Even in volatile or turbulent market it has the potential to 126.
All the best ...
NSE Announcements on Dabur India
Posted by :
MMB MessengerDabur India Ltd has informed the Exchange regarding regulation 7(1) of SEBI (Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers) Regulations, 1997 pursuant to acquisition of Shares of Fem Care Pharma Limited by Dabur India Limited. The Shares have been acquired pursuant to the open offer. The details of the same shall be available on the NSE website (http://www.nseindia.com) under: Corporates > Latest Announcements and on the Extranet Server (/Common/Corporate Announcements)....
FMCG sector outlook
Posted by : BAZEEGAR
FMCG sector is perceived as a defensive sector and safe haven for investment in turbulent times. The sector
is considered so due to the strong characteristics of the FMCG business that relies on domestic consumption.
The sector has outperformed the markets during most part of 2008 when the global equity markets were in
doldrums. This was even when the industry was suffering from cost pressure leading to margin squeeze. But
with the input cost inflation easing, we expect the companies to report better margin picture in the coming
quarters.
We expect rural markets to continue to witness buoyancy in the demand due to higher minimum support
price for farm produce, farm loan waiver scheme and the steep increase in the salaries of government
employees consequent to the implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission’s. This is likely to help maintain
the growth traction for FMCG companies
With the current run up in equities, the sectors that were beaten down in the slump have picked up
momentum, which made investment in FMCG unattractive. However, the markets have reached to a level
where the valuations don’t justify which makes us feel that FMCG stocks may outperform the markets in
case there is some sought of correction. Our top picks remain Godrej Consumer and Dabur...
Buy and Hold DABUR INDIA for delivery -60days
Posted by : KALPESH PATELBuy and Hold DABUR INDIA at 112.90 for delivery target of 120, 135 and 141 -60days northpole77 dot com...
International Business
Posted by : BAZEEGAR
International Business again witnessed a strong growth of 40% in FY09
led by whooping 99.4%, 56.7%, and 45.6% growth in the Egypt,
Bangladesh and GCC region, respectively. The growth in revenue was also
due to translational gain. With the Company entering into newer geographies like Lebanon, Algeria, Turkey, Mauritiana and China this year,
we believe the International business to grow at around 25% for FY10.
However, it will remain lower than growth in FY09 due to higher base effect
and slow down in consumer spending in GCC region...
Food Division
Posted by : BAZEEGAR
Food Division’s revenue grew by a mere 12.6% in FY09 as compared with
19.3% growth in FY08 due to supply concern from the Nepal factory and
slowing hospitality and tourism sector. However, we have upgraded our
food segment growth from 8% to 10% in FY10 as institutional business has
started reviving with improvement in hospitality and tourism sectors. Also
growth is likely to come from successful re-launch of Active brand and with
new launch of Real Burst food beverage and Chyawan Junior malted drink....
Consumer Health Division (CHD)
Posted by : BAZEEGAR
Consumer Health Division (CHD) reported a firm growth of 16.3% yoy in
the Q4’09. The growth was equally strong for the FY09 at 18.8% yoy led by
20.6% yoy growth in the Badam Tail and 13% yoy growth in Honitus
franchise in FY09. We expect this segment to grow at 18% in FY10 on the
back of aggressive marketing and media initiatives....
Segmental Highlights and Outlook
Posted by : BAZEEGAR
Despite growing competition, Consumer Care Division (CCD) reported
improved performance compared to last 3-4 years due to its varied portfolio
mix and new product launches. CCD grew by 17.2% yoy to Rs. 22.1 bn in
FY09 led by 23% growth in the hair care category which accounts for 32%
to the total CCD revenue mainly due to impressive 20.4% growth in the
Dabur Amla hair oil on ground activations and with streamlined marketing.
Further in shampoo range, Vatika expanded its market share from 5.7% in
FY08 to 6.8% in FY09, which provided a strong impetus to top-line. Besides
the segment gained traction in digestive division experiencing a growth of
11.8% on the back of new variants, whereas the home care division grew
by 9.7% due to discontinuation of non-performing coils business.
We expect CCD division to grow by 19% for FY10 as the management
begins to consolidate Fem Care’s financials from the end of Q1’10. Fem
Care is likely to add ~4% inorganic growth to the segment....
Result Highlights
Posted by : BAZEEGAR
Dabur reported an excellent revenue growth of 20.6% yoy to Rs. 7.3 bn in
Q4’09 driven by robust volume growth of 13.7%. However, on sequential
basis revenue slipped 6%. For the full year the Company posted a healthy
growth of 18.8% on the back of volume growth and price increase of nearly
13% and 5%, respectively.
EBITDA for the quarter grew 25% yoy to Rs. 1.3 bn primarily due to 240 bps
yoy dip in the other expenditure (mainly SG&A) to sales, however,
advertisement & publicity cost and COGS to sales increased 89 bps and
110 bps yoy, respectively. The pile up of inventory was responsible for the
rise in COGS as inventory to sales witnessed a jump of around 500 bps
yoy, which in our view was consequent to falling commodity prices. The
Company posted EBITDA of Rs. 4.96 bn for FY09 a jump of 14.5% over the
last year although EBITDA margin fell by 67 bps to 17.7% in the year after
the COGS to sales spiralled 242 bps yoy due to severe inflationary pressure
during the second half of FY09.
Adjusted net profit for the quarter grew 30.9% yoy to Rs. 1.04 bn with the
help of translational gains. For the full year it rose 17.5% to Rs. 3.9 bn....
Valuation
Posted by : BAZEEGAR
At the CMP the stock trades at a forward P/E of 19.8x and 16.8x for FY10E
and FY11E. Based on our DCF valuation (assuming a WACC of 12.2%, Rf
of 7.91%, and terminal growth of 5%) we arrived at a target price of
Rs. 116, which provides an upside of 3.9% over the CMP of
Rs. 111.85. Therefore, we maintain our hold rating on the stock....
Margins to scale up:
Posted by : BAZEEGAR
We expect the EBITDA margin to improve in FY10 due
to soft raw material prices. However, we expect it to limit to ~112 bps,
considering the expected increase in the advertisement spend during new
product launches. Although loss of Rs. 24 mn in retail division restricted the
margin growth during the quarter, the division is likely to cut losses in the
forthcoming quarters with implementation of new revenue sharing model and
slow down in opening of new stores....
Stable near-term growth:
Posted by : BAZEEGAR
We expect Dabur’s revenue to grow at a CAGR
of 16.6% during FY09-FY11 on the back of a healthy volume growth driven
by its existing popular brands and new launches. We expect Dabur to
expend heavily in advertisement during the new launches, which is likely to
help in grabbing the early market share. Moreover, Fem Care, which is likely
to be consolidated from the end of Q1’10, is going to boost the revenue....
Diversified portfolio to provide stable growth
Posted by : BAZEEGAR
Dabur reported an impressive fourth quarter numbers as its net sales grew
20.6% yoy to Rs. 7.3 bn driven primarily by 13.7% volume growth. The
increase has come from Dabur’s flagship segments Consumer Care Division
(CCD) and Consumer Health Division (CHD), which grew 18.4% and 18.8%
respectively. EBITDA margin also increased by 60 bps yoy to 18.3% during
the quarter due to soft raw material prices. In our view, the Company
maintains strong fundamentals and it is gaining traction both in portfolio mix
and into newer geographies. However, we believe that the stock at the CMP
of Rs. 111.85 has factored all positives. Also, our DCF based valuation gives
a fair value of Rs. 116. Hence, we maintain our hold rating on the stock...
