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Posted by :
smilehitwhy it is going down today?regards...
Why is everyone Silent on SRF prices remaining subdued???
Posted by : Kmsry
Hey what’s really happening with SRF share prices??? Why are all the senior boarders who predicted share price in the range 255+ by this week.
It is really surprising that even after the excellent H1 results, very liberal interim bonus, an upbeat general market condition and close to the record date for pay out of interim dividend, the market price of SRF shares remains by and large subdued. Even today (the last trading day Cum Dividend) there has not being any significant price movements which many investors would have expected….
This gives a suspicion for the general investor like me as to whether there is anything foul ….??
Well, I really do not intend any hurt or offence, but a genuine suspicion… Appreciate reasonable comments/ analysis from seasoned boarders. And… how the price is going to behave from tomorrow (12 Nov 2009), when the EX Div trading begins…
Happy Investing
Kmsry
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GOOD FOR ACCUMULATION
Posted by :
comatose
Karshin, could you let us have your take on ethics and integrity in the DCM group in general and SRF / ABR in particular. As you have seen them from close quarters, your views would be useful to all of us, Thanks.
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Posted by : comatose
Smilehit, My suggestion is just forget that you have this stock in your portfolio. Don`t think of selling at less than 2000/- . Believe me, it will come sooner than what you can imagine.
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No Analyst Recommendations!
Posted by : durai1952
Contd....3
15.It seems that the FIIs and M/Fs are holding on though they entered at low levels (except
PRB securities ) despite SRF reaching record high of 373 in April 06
16.The Brunt of the hammering is only felt by the poor retail investors who are possibly on
margin funding. Other retailers sitting on their on cash other than those exited doubting
the fundaments and playing on market sentiments, may be in red only in the books,
with possibility of a bounce back once market finds its feet, whether at 9000 or 7000
levels and start consolidation
17.A trading range of 450--500 in the short/medium term once the market correct is well
within the reach of this stock. Long term prospects look even brighter.
I REQEST U TO STUDY THIS STOCK AND MAKE AVAILABLE UR RESEARCH REPORT
FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE RETAIL INVESTORS WHO ARE FALLING A PREY TO THE EVIL DESIGNS OF THE VESTED INTERESTS. U WILL BE DOING GOOD TO THE RETAIL INVESTORS TO BOOST THEIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INDIAN GROWTH STORY WHICH IS ALREADY AT A LOW EBB.
ANANKRIS
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No Analyst Recommendations!
Posted by : durai1952
contd....2
10.Carbon credit prices will firm up in the future as authorities are likely to tighten the
emission norms during the Phase II ( Post 2008)
11.Signatories of Kyoto have recently agreed on a preliminery agenda for finalising emission
reduction targets for period beyond 2012, present expiry of the commitment. As such SRF
will continue to benefit from Carbon Credits beyond 2012.
12.Even if carbon credit story ends a per the existing provisions of Kyoto SRF`s kitty should
be richer by around 2000 Cr from Carbon credits.This windfall profit can be ploughd back
by the co for various capex programmes undertaken/new projects / new aquisition/
restructuring/ repayment of debts which will have tremendous impact on the co`s Revenue
growth and bottom line going forward.
11.Gujat Fluro Chemicals another leading player in the Carbon Credit market with same level
of EPS for FY05 (FY06 results not announced) has lesser eligigibily for CER ( 3M CER
compared to SRF`s 3.8M) recorded a high of 700 and currently trading around 400 as
against SRF`s high of 373 and current price of 150 SRF has already started revenue
generation from CER from FY 06 and GUJFLURO will start generating revenue from carbon
credit from this fiscal only.
12. The operators and other vested interests have deliberately beaten down this stock to
abysmal levels. Even considering the on going blood bath in the market the current levels
do not justify such a beating considering that SRF was at 190 levels in April 05 when the
sensex was around 7000 levels and EPS for 2005 at 9.31. Current EPS for FY06 as
declared by the CO. is 16.24 and and sensex 2000points above April 05 levels ie, EPS
higher by 75% and sensex up by 30%+( Compared to April 05 levels)
13. There is something cooking in the SRF counter which is stinking. The vested interests
are deliberately beating down this stock to gobble the same from retail investors at
cheap prices.
14. From 1/1/2005 following bulk deals are reported ( as per NSE)
a) Fr Templeton - Net Buy - No. 6.05 Lac @ 158.98
b) HDFC M/F - Buy - No. 7.48 Lac @ 212.98 (Avg)
c) Fidlety Net Buy- No. 32.39Lac @ 217.29 (avg)
d) SRF Poly Inv Buy- No.15.09 Lac @ 169.23 (avg)
e) Maruthi securities Sell- No - 5.02 Lac @ 312.40
f) Nirmal N. Kotecha Net Sell- 0.72 Lac @ 174.69
g) BNP Paribus Net Sell 1.80 Lac @ 329.94
i) PRB Securities Buy No. 0.22 Lac @ 342.92
There is no major sell other than sale of 9 lac share by BNP Paribus on 27.4.06 during 06
(EOE - NEED TO BE CHECKED WITH BSE AND OTHER DATAS)
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No Analyst Recommendations!
Posted by : durai1952
I tried to post one analytical report on SRF by one Anankris published in eindiabrokers in June, 2006, but did not succeed. The report appears to be bold, unbiased, informative and far sighted. LET ME TRY ONCE MORE:
REG: RESEARCH REPORT ON SRF LTD-A POTENTIAL MULTIBAGGER
SRF LTD is a Company with strong fundamentals, Current EPS (FY06) of 16.24 and a clear visibility of earning for FY07 with Forward EPS (FY07 ) around 50. Current EPS is low as the results are not transparent to the extent that there is an element of undisclosed revenue to the tune of 240Cr ( Pre Tax) as this Co. is holding 2.4Million CER relating to the crediting period upto February, 2006. As this company is accounting revenue from CERs on a realisation basis, this fact do not reflect in the results announced for FY06 This will add 156Cr (PAT)to the bottom line for FY06( tax and transaction cost calulated at 35% based on SRF`s previous CER transaction) and an additional EPS of 23.8 resulting in actual EPS for FY06 of around 40-SRF`s CDM project can generate 3.8M CER annually as per approval by UNFCCC and as per the latest sale contract entered into by the Co. can yeild an annual Pre-Tax revenue of 380CR from FY07, ie, an additional revenue of 285Cr( Pre-Tax) over the revenue of appx.95 Cr (pre-tax) declared in the Co`s results for FY06.This will add to the bottomline of the co. 185CR ( PAT after deduction 35% towards tax and transaction costs) yielding an additional EPS of 28.2 for FY07 and a forward FY 07 EPS of 44.4. This FW(FY07) EPS of 44.4 is based on the current level of EPS from core business of the Co. In fact Co`s PFB ( Packing film business) is doing very badly during last 2 yrs, the loss for FY06 being around 20Cr. SRF`s TTB ( Tech. Textile Business ) results were also poor compared to previous years. Capacity of PFB was expanded from 5200 to 25000 during 2004 and it is expected that PFB will break even this year. If so it will add another 2-3 to EPS for FY07. SRF`s Forward EPS for FY07 should be around 45 to 50 considering robust growth in core business, break even of PFB etc. and recovery in TTB.SRF has also undertaken and commissioned various capex programmes for capacity exapnsion etc which will start bearing fruits rom this fiscal yielding higher revenue growth .You may consider the following also:
1. SRF`s stock price spurted from 90 levels reaching a high of 343 in Sep 05 on the strength of
carbon Credit story. From this SRF went down to 260 levels during Sep 2005 to Feb 2006
consolidating major part of this time at 260-280levels. In Feb 2006 SRF started its upmove
triggered by news of issue of CER and reached a high of 373 (7/4/2006)after announcement
of Revenue realisation 95Cr from sale of CER in March 06 from after which the the
downtrend started
2. Promoters stake in SRF increased from 34.5% in June 2004 to 39.4% in March 2006
3. Institutional/MF holding incresed from 29.% to 36% during the same period
4. Share of Indian Public decreased from 29% to 16%
5. Free float share comparatively low
6. Share is being mercilessly beaten down with total disregard to the strong fundamentals
and growth potential of this Co.
7. SRF is eligible for Carbon Crdeit for a period of 10 years from 2004. Annual CER available
as per UNFCCC`s approval of Co`s CDM project is 3.8Million per annum
8. There was crash in the carbon market during April - May 2006 triggered by lower emission
levels reported by Europeon Copuntries ( compared to taret allocation under NAP)
9. EUA prices came down to Euro 9.10 from a record high of Euro 31 during the above period
Cuurent price( for delivery Dec.2006) is around Eu 15
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GOOD FOR ACCUMULATION
Posted by : smilehitcomatose,i am holding 500@Rs188 per share, planning to sell on 13th nov after dividend, what is your opinion?regards...
Copenhagen delay to cost $500bn a year
Posted by : kalpataru70
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that holding up a new global climate agreement will add $500 billion for each year of delay to the total cost of measures needed to keep global warming to plus-2 degrees Celsius.
In its annual World Energy Outlook released this week the IEA says an energy revolution is needed if the required cuts to carbon emissions in coming decades are to be achieved. The agency’s chief economist Faith Birol said pre-requisites for such a revolution are a strong climate agreement to curtail global emissions up to 2020, and a doubling of carbon prices from current EU levels.
An entrenched stalemate over two years of international climate negotiations sees the upcoming December deadline for a new treaty in danger of being missed and the timetable for steeper emissions reductions delayed.
The IEA forecasts global energy demand rising 2.5 per cent a year over the next give years, translating into increased use of fossil fuels and rising emissions, if current policy settings are maintained. Oil demand, for example, was set to rise from 85 million barrels per day currently to 105 million by 2030 in the absence of measures to switch to clean energy.
"We need a deal in Copenhagen. We need a signal for the energy industry. Without that, nothing will move," the Financial Times reports Birol as saying.
The agency estimates that $10.5 trillion of investment in low-carbon energy technologies is already required by 2030 to limit carbon concentrations to 450 parts per million and 2 degrees warming. But every year of delay in implementing policies to deliver that injection adds another half a trillion dollars to the bill, it claims.
The report also says carbon emission permit prices in industrialised countries need to reach $50 a tonne of CO2e by 2020 and $110 by 2030 for industry to deliver viable low-emission energy alternatives. In key developing countries, the price would need to reach $30 a tonne by 2020 and $50 by 2030. The IEA analysis is at odds with the direction of US cap-and-trade legislation. Carbon price caps outlined in draft Senate bills would restrict carbon prices a maximum of $48 a tonne by 2020....
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Posted by : Cool BullDear Comatose,I understood the logic behind the decision only after I interacted with you on MMB. Prior to that in my mind also doubts were there regarding the purchase of Engg plastics division from SRF Poly. Because the company never bothered to come up with a convincing explanation, even when Media cast aspersions on the decision. The company needs to communicate properly with all stake holders. As I mentioned earlier, lack of proper communication is the main reason for the misunderstanding of SRF....
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Posted by : comatose
contd. previous : According to SRF, the main reason why that business was loss making was lack of finance and inadequate marketing set-up at SRF Poly, both of which are not a problem for SRF.
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Posted by : comatose
Amkan, even I am not connected with anyone, but the news of various companies and groups often gets heard at various places.
Regarding buying of the SRF Poly assets, I would go along with their explanation, which was :
1) International bids were invited (Through reputed consultants).
2) The SRF management looking at the best bid received, decided that it would be worthwhile to buy it for SRF instead of giving to the foreign buyer, at that price.
3) They are confident that there would be additional top line and bottom line growth with these businesses.
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Posted by :
amkanI do agree that i am not connected to top corporate honchos like the way u said u are but however i just have to say that ABR for raising his stake in SRf ,which was disposed by his siblings while managing the crunch at DCM did take certian decisions which were not the best of interest of shareholders at that time,take the example of SRF acquiring EnGG plastic biz (loss makinG) of SRf polymer at 150 cr.Tell me how do you justify that...
May surprise on upside
Posted by : Dr. ShastriSRF has potential to move towards locking the circuit. No one know which is the day for SRF. But I am sure it will surprise on upside....
GOOD FOR ACCUMULATION
Posted by : kalpataru70indian market is not considering the valuation of cer or carbon credit money which are encashing by the companies with the stock price,those companies which are utilizing the cer money in the expansion and diversification shall be awarded in long term,by 2014 srf ltd eps will cross 100/- or 150/- or may be more on their working....
